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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jun 16, 2023 23:41:02 GMT
My favorite category by far especially since the rule changes in Best Picture. Now it can be viewed almost entirely independent of BP. Probably the most high brow major category with its own trends and tendencies.
While obviously these WILL be wrong I actually have a predicted 5 I like a lot right now.
Scorsese Song Villeneuve Nolan Glazer
Good mix of tech heavy prestige pics and high brow foreign films. Normally I would be looking for other foreign contenders (Triet?) but I feel like Song and Glazer might dominate that conversation this year.
Lots of other possibilities of course but I will leave that conversation to y’all. I do want to say one person we might be sleeping on is Payne. I think Downsizing and the time between films has made people forget he was nominated for his last 3 films before that one.
Who else you guys like?
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Post by DanQuixote on Jun 17, 2023 7:40:54 GMT
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon * Celine Song - Past Lives Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Alt. Denis Villeneuve, Blitz Bazawule, Alexander Payne and Emerald Fennell.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 17, 2023 14:08:55 GMT
Scorsese Nolan Glazer Bazawule Song
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jun 17, 2023 15:12:55 GMT
Haven't seen it yet, but Song's film seems like the sort of work that loses a nom to a flashier movie with more directing
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Post by stephen on Jun 17, 2023 15:17:48 GMT
Even though it's all guesswork with half a year left to go, I am a little surprised people are so secure in Song getting a nomination. Past Lives is doing very well with the sort of movie it is and smaller films are making a bigger splash nowadays, but A24 also has Glazer to push and even though Everything Everywhere cleaned house as an early A24 release, that was an anomaly and not the rule. Assuming Scorsese/Nolan/Villeneuve are secure, Song could easily lose out momentum to the likes of Gerwig or Fennell, who are at least previous Oscar favourites, and then there's Bazawule who has a very strong Picture contender and Triet has the Cannes win behind her.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jun 17, 2023 15:46:18 GMT
Even though it's all guesswork with half a year left to go, I am a little surprised people are so secure in Song getting a nomination. Past Lives is doing very well with the sort of movie it is and smaller films are making a bigger splash nowadays, but A24 also has Glazer to push and even though Everything Everywhere cleaned house as an early A24 release, that was an anomaly and not the rule. Assuming Scorsese/Nolan/Villeneuve are secure, Song could easily lose out momentum to the likes of Gerwig or Fennell, who are at least previous Oscar favorites, and then there's Bazawule who has a very strong Picture contender and Triet has the Cannes win behind her. I have Song in because I think it’s number 2 for best picture currently. I kind of feel like most of the Color Purple’s praise is going to be dominated by its cast. I don’t really know if Denis will get his “Peter Jackson” moment this time since it’s pretty clear there is going to be a third movie (at least). He could even be vulnerable for a snub again. Definitely keeping an eye out for people like Fennell and Lanthimos and the aforementioned Payne so we will see.
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Post by stephen on Jun 17, 2023 15:47:55 GMT
Even though it's all guesswork with half a year left to go, I am a little surprised people are so secure in Song getting a nomination. Past Lives is doing very well with the sort of movie it is and smaller films are making a bigger splash nowadays, but A24 also has Glazer to push and even though Everything Everywhere cleaned house as an early A24 release, that was an anomaly and not the rule. Assuming Scorsese/Nolan/Villeneuve are secure, Song could easily lose out momentum to the likes of Gerwig or Fennell, who are at least previous Oscar favorites, and then there's Bazawule who has a very strong Picture contender and Triet has the Cannes win behind her. I have Song in because I think it’s number 2 for best picture currently. I kind of feel like most of the Color Purple’s praise is going to be dominated by its cast. I don’t really know if Denis will get his “Peter Jackson” moment this time since it’s pretty clear there is going to be a third movie (at least). He could even be vulnerable for a snub again. Definitely keeping an eye out for people like Fennell and Lanthimos and the aforementioned Payne so we will see. Lol, how did I forget about Yorgos -- my most anticipated film of the fuckin' year. I think he definitely can't be counted out. The Favourite was a huge success with nominations and even though Poor Things is a somewhat earlier release, it's coming right out of Venice hot and it's a strong player for Production Design and Costumes, plus its ensemble looks delectable, and Yorgos always has a vibe to him that the Best Director branch will appreciate.
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Post by countjohn on Jun 19, 2023 23:09:39 GMT
Do I even have to say it?
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Jun 19, 2023 23:14:35 GMT
glazer scorcese villeneueve gerwig nolan
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jun 20, 2023 15:00:40 GMT
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest Celine Song, Past Lives Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part II
Alt. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jun 20, 2023 15:19:42 GMT
Even though it's all guesswork with half a year left to go, I am a little surprised people are so secure in Song getting a nomination. Past Lives is doing very well with the sort of movie it is and smaller films are making a bigger splash nowadays, but A24 also has Glazer to push and even though Everything Everywhere cleaned house as an early A24 release, that was an anomaly and not the rule. Assuming Scorsese/Nolan/Villeneuve are secure, Song could easily lose out momentum to the likes of Gerwig or Fennell, who are at least previous Oscar favourites, and then there's Bazawule who has a very strong Picture contender and Triet has the Cannes win behind her. I don’t think that’s a very safe assumption
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jun 20, 2023 16:06:23 GMT
Even though it's all guesswork with half a year left to go, I am a little surprised people are so secure in Song getting a nomination. Past Lives is doing very well with the sort of movie it is and smaller films are making a bigger splash nowadays, but A24 also has Glazer to push and even though Everything Everywhere cleaned house as an early A24 release, that was an anomaly and not the rule. Assuming Scorsese/Nolan/Villeneuve are secure, Song could easily lose out momentum to the likes of Gerwig or Fennell, who are at least previous Oscar favourites, and then there's Bazawule who has a very strong Picture contender and Triet has the Cannes win behind her. I don’t think that’s a very safe assumption This being the directors branch Scorsese is the only person I think is pretty much completely secure. One of the most unpredictable categories. I love it.
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Jun 20, 2023 16:47:06 GMT
Scorsese Glazer Nolan Triet Fincher
Song, Villeneuve, Bazawule, Payne and Fennell are the alts.
Edit: oh, and Cooper. He should probably be in the top five.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jun 29, 2023 17:09:12 GMT
I forgot Alexander Payne was Me Too’d. Maybe not him but you never know.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jul 22, 2023 6:59:17 GMT
I know it’s only July, but this really feels like Nolan’s moment. Scorsese is still a threat, but Nolan is going to have a combination of acclaim + box office + audience scores that will be tough to beat. Plus, lately the Academy seems more interested in giving directors their first Oscar instead of repeat wins.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 22, 2023 15:57:36 GMT
Let’s say Villeneuve and Bazawule do get pushed back to next year what would be y’alls updated predictions? I think if this is true I will go with…
Marty Nolan Song Glazer Payne
Nobody is really talking about Payne being Me Too’d and he has three previous nominations so I’m going with him for now. Could see Triet, Fennell or Lanthimos maybe. Last spot is tough.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 23, 2023 0:19:26 GMT
Nolan Scorsese Glazer Payne Song
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jul 23, 2023 4:51:27 GMT
Nolan and Scorsese would be the only ones I'd consider safe right now.
Song is a contender but this is a a small indie debut. We have no idea if Past Lives will keep the momentum all year. Even if it does, she could be rewarded in writing and snubbed by the Directing branch.
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Post by Pavan on Jul 23, 2023 6:18:55 GMT
Nolan feels like a safe bet for now but knowing the Academy i won't predict him for a win yet.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 23, 2023 15:13:51 GMT
Nolan Scorsese Payne Glazer Song
Bumped Villeneuve out for Payne.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jul 24, 2023 2:29:14 GMT
I know it’s only July, but this really feels like Nolan’s moment. Scorsese is still a threat, but Nolan is going to have a combination of acclaim + box office + audience scores that will be tough to beat. Plus, lately the Academy seems more interested in giving directors their first Oscar instead of repeat wins. But you're coming from a fan's perspective. Nolan is someone who has always been more on the peripheral when it comes to the Academy. No, I’m coming from the perspective of someone reading this year’s landscape. Nolan has been more on the peripheral because he’s mostly worked in genres that the Academy has historically not been as friendly towards, but he made a major breakthrough with them with Dunkirk, earning his first Best Director nomination, because its subject matter was way more in their wheelhouse than hist earlier films... and Oppenheimer is arguably even more in their wheelhouse. Again, I know it’s only July, but if we end up with another pandemic-like year with thin competition at the Oscars because of delayed release dates caused by the strike, Nolan seems like the obvious person to reward here... especially since the box office phenomenon of Barbenheimer is going to dominate the discourse for the rest of the year most likely.
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Nikan
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Post by Nikan on Jul 24, 2023 20:13:50 GMT
But you're coming from a fan's perspective. Nolan is someone who has always been more on the peripheral when it comes to the Academy. No, I’m coming from the perspective of someone reading this year’s landscape. Nolan has been more on the peripheral because he’s mostly worked in genres that the Academy has historically not been as friendly towards, but he made a major breakthrough with them with Dunkirk, earning his first Best Director nomination, because its subject matter was way more in their wheelhouse than hist earlier films... and Oppenheimer is arguably even more in their wheelhouse. Again, I know it’s only July, but if we end up with another pandemic-like year with thin competition at the Oscars because of delayed release dates caused by the strike, Nolan seems like the obvious person to reward here... especially since the box office phenomenon of Barbenheimer is going to dominate the discourse for the rest of the year most likely. Whatever happens man, do not change this Cillian avatar. Looks awfully good on you.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jul 24, 2023 22:46:21 GMT
But you're coming from a fan's perspective. Nolan is someone who has always been more on the peripheral when it comes to the Academy. No, I’m coming from the perspective of someone reading this year’s landscape. Nolan has been more on the peripheral because he’s mostly worked in genres that the Academy has historically not been as friendly towards, but he made a major breakthrough with them with Dunkirk, earning his first Best Director nomination, because its subject matter was way more in their wheelhouse than hist earlier films... and Oppenheimer is arguably even more in their wheelhouse. Again, I know it’s only July, but if we end up with another pandemic-like year with thin competition at the Oscars because of delayed release dates caused by the strike, Nolan seems like the obvious person to reward here... especially since the box office phenomenon of Barbenheimer is going to dominate the discourse for the rest of the year most likely. Yes, you are a superfan of Nolan and Oppenheimer. Your recent posts are all about the film and director, including your profile pic. This forum is notorious for pushing their favorites - and trying to pass them on as the Academy.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 24, 2023 22:57:23 GMT
No, I’m coming from the perspective of someone reading this year’s landscape. Nolan has been more on the peripheral because he’s mostly worked in genres that the Academy has historically not been as friendly towards, but he made a major breakthrough with them with Dunkirk, earning his first Best Director nomination, because its subject matter was way more in their wheelhouse than hist earlier films... and Oppenheimer is arguably even more in their wheelhouse. Again, I know it’s only July, but if we end up with another pandemic-like year with thin competition at the Oscars because of delayed release dates caused by the strike, Nolan seems like the obvious person to reward here... especially since the box office phenomenon of Barbenheimer is going to dominate the discourse for the rest of the year most likely. Yes, you are a superfan of Nolan and Oppenheimer. Your recent posts are all about the film and director, including your profile pic. This forum is notorious for pushing their favorites - and trying to pass them on as the Academy. You're so far off base here, it's fucking hilarious. Go somewhere like AW and you'll realise, it's definitely not just Nolan fanboys predicting Nolan. I swear you just come out of the woodwork every year, to say dumb shit during awards season.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jul 25, 2023 0:26:05 GMT
Yes, you are a superfan of Nolan and Oppenheimer. Your recent posts are all about the film and director, including your profile pic. This forum is notorious for pushing their favorites - and trying to pass them on as the Academy. You're so far off base here, it's fucking hilarious. Go somewhere like AW and you'll realise, it's definitely not just Nolan fanboys predicting Nolan. I swear you just come out of the woodwork every year, to say dumb shit during awards season. I am not the one that is going around making proclamations in Jul in as far as who is going to win. OP is clearly a super fan of Oppenheimer - so why not just admit that they WANT Nolan to win.
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