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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 24, 2019 15:49:23 GMT
Is Banderas done? He's still sitting at 5 for me. I still got Pryce right up there with Driver/Phoenix. I really believe (and hope) Banderas will be among the 5 nominees.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 24, 2019 22:03:14 GMT
It's basically musical chairs between DiCaprio, De Niro, Pryce, and Banderas for the last 3 spots, with Banderas looking the most vulnerable. Driver is locked and Phoenix seems reasonably safe. I can imagine Egerton and Murphy contending, but I think they'll need to win the Musical/Comedy Globe to have a shot.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Oct 24, 2019 22:47:52 GMT
It's basically musical chairs between DiCaprio, De Niro, Pryce, and Banderas for the last 3 spots, with Banderas looking the most vulnerable. Driver is locked and Phoenix seems reasonably safe. I can imagine Egerton and Murphy contending, but I think they'll need to win the Musical/Comedy Globe to have a shot. Agreed, except I think De Niro is the one who'll miss here. All Banderas needs is to win a major critics award, then maybe a Globe or BAFTA nod (which I think he'll get). If I had to bet, I'd say De Niro is the contender who is nominated everywhere but is left out at the end.
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 25, 2019 0:00:17 GMT
It's basically musical chairs between DiCaprio, De Niro, Pryce, and Banderas for the last 3 spots, with Banderas looking the most vulnerable. Driver is locked and Phoenix seems reasonably safe. I can imagine Egerton and Murphy contending, but I think they'll need to win the Musical/Comedy Globe to have a shot. Gotta say I think Pryce is the one that misses. They pretty much shifted the whole awards season earlier, so the late release doesn't look as good as it used to and idk how many voters are going to be drawn to it over the others. Plus.... I think Netflix is gonna go soft on the Popes campaign to boost Irishman, Marriage Story, etc.... Banderas looks in for now unless SAG nom Sandler or someone "left field" .
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 25, 2019 0:26:54 GMT
It's basically musical chairs between DiCaprio, De Niro, Pryce, and Banderas for the last 3 spots, with Banderas looking the most vulnerable. Driver is locked and Phoenix seems reasonably safe. I can imagine Egerton and Murphy contending, but I think they'll need to win the Musical/Comedy Globe to have a shot. Agreed, except I think De Niro is the one who'll miss here. All Banderas needs is to win a major critics award, then maybe a Globe or BAFTA nod (which I think he'll get). If I had to bet, I'd say De Niro is the contender who is nominated everywhere but is left out at the end. But when does DeNiro ever miss? He gets nominated for who he is. The Irishman will be a big Oscar player.
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Post by stephen on Oct 25, 2019 0:40:10 GMT
Agreed, except I think De Niro is the one who'll miss here. All Banderas needs is to win a major critics award, then maybe a Globe or BAFTA nod (which I think he'll get). If I had to bet, I'd say De Niro is the contender who is nominated everywhere but is left out at the end. But when does DeNiro ever miss? He gets nominated for who he is. The Irishman will be a big Oscar player. He missed a surprising amount in the '80s: The King of Comedy (critically drubbed but like that stops the industry), The Mission (a freakin’ Best Picture nominee), The Untouchables (in an insanely weak year in which his co-star won), and if they were feeling frisky, Midnight Run in ’88. Since Cape Fear, he could've arguably gotten in for This Boy's Life, Casino, Jackie Brown, Wag the Dog (three of which actually got co-stars nominated) and maybe even a random supporting nod for American Hustle, in a year where they clearly creamed hard for that movie. De Niro is well-respected, but he's not Meryl Streep; they don't just check his name just because of who he is. And in a year where Best Actor is looking like a bloody dogfight, laziness isn't gonna be a factor. Even if The Irishman is a big Academy hit, I can easily see him getting drowned out by the supporting men in the film and just more general passion in Lead Actor for the men who don't already have two Oscars.
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Post by bob-coppola on Oct 25, 2019 1:06:39 GMT
As of now, I think Banderas will either altogether miss or be that wildcard that misses every precursor but gets nominated at the end.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 25, 2019 1:17:09 GMT
I think De Niro is in the 3rd spot for a bunch of reasons:
First he'll be seen as the guy that made this movie happen.......he has 7 nods and the group of actors who have 8 is a huge and stellar group aren't "better" than him tbh, imo. 8 is a sort of plateau for actors (like 6 is for actresses).....he's never been nodded for a Scorsese gangster pic (kind of shocking actually), apparently (I haven't seen it) he provides the gravity to the film.
I think all 3 of the Irishman guys are in - especially because Pesci will win some critics awards and I think Banderas is in too maybe - that group looks awfully white guys without him or Murphy.
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Post by Viced on Oct 25, 2019 1:21:36 GMT
But when does DeNiro ever miss? He gets nominated for who he is. The Irishman will be a big Oscar player. He missed a surprising amount in the '80s: The King of Comedy (critically drubbed but like that stops the industry), The Mission (a freakin’ Best Picture nominee), The Untouchables (in an insanely weak year in which his co-star won), and if they were feeling frisky, Midnight Run in ’88. Since Cape Fear, he could've arguably gotten in for This Boy's Life, Casino, Jackie Brown, Wag the Dog (three of which actually got co-stars nominated) and maybe even a random supporting nod for American Hustle, in a year where they clearly creamed hard for that movie. De Niro is well-respected, but he's not Meryl Streep; they don't just check his name just because of who he is. And in a year where Best Actor is looking like a bloody dogfight, laziness isn't gonna be a factor. Even if The Irishman is a big Academy hit, I can easily see him getting drowned out by the supporting men in the film and just more general passion in Lead Actor for the men who don't already have two Oscars. Doubt he was very close to a nomination for literally everything you mentioned ( American Hustle -- has anyone ever been nominated for an uncredited cameo? lol). The way things are looking right now, him missing for The Irishman would easily be the most surprising snub of his career. Despite the raves for Pacino and Pesci, it's a 3 and a half hour epic carried by De Niro, his passion project that he's been rambling on about for over a decade, and (presumably) the movie will be in the running for a BP win. Not comparable at all to box office bombs ( The King of Comedy), movies where co-stars got more praise and a nomination (in the same category -- The Untouchables, Jackie Brown, Wag the Dog), or stuff that wasn't even on the Oscars' radar ( Midnight Run, This Boy's Life).
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 25, 2019 2:30:21 GMT
But when does DeNiro ever miss? He gets nominated for who he is. The Irishman will be a big Oscar player. He missed a surprising amount in the '80s: The King of Comedy (critically drubbed but like that stops the industry), The Mission (a freakin’ Best Picture nominee), The Untouchables (in an insanely weak year in which his co-star won), and if they were feeling frisky, Midnight Run in ’88. Since Cape Fear, he could've arguably gotten in for This Boy's Life, Casino, Jackie Brown, Wag the Dog (three of which actually got co-stars nominated) and maybe even a random supporting nod for American Hustle, in a year where they clearly creamed hard for that movie. De Niro is well-respected, but he's not Meryl Streep; they don't just check his name just because of who he is. And in a year where Best Actor is looking like a bloody dogfight, laziness isn't gonna be a factor. Even if The Irishman is a big Academy hit, I can easily see him getting drowned out by the supporting men in the film and just more general passion in Lead Actor for the men who don't already have two Oscars. DeNiro was never a serious contender for any of the above. The fact that he has won twice is not going to deterred him from a nomination.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 25, 2019 4:13:28 GMT
It's basically musical chairs between DiCaprio, De Niro, Pryce, and Banderas for the last 3 spots, with Banderas looking the most vulnerable. Driver is locked and Phoenix seems reasonably safe. I can imagine Egerton and Murphy contending, but I think they'll need to win the Musical/Comedy Globe to have a shot. Agreed, except I think De Niro is the one who'll miss here. All Banderas needs is to win a major critics award, then maybe a Globe or BAFTA nod (which I think he'll get). If I had to bet, I'd say De Niro is the contender who is nominated everywhere but is left out at the end. At first it seemed really weird that De Niro, a two time winner, seven time nominee would be left out especially with the narrative of reuniting with Scorsese, and this being one of Scorsese's best reviewed films in a long time especially since I'm predicting The Irishman to win Best Picture. I don't know though who to leave out between him and Banderas though. I keep saying this, but Banderas just feels like the type that could miss a lot of places but still show up on Oscar morning due to #1 votes. I really want to drop Pryce because I just want it to be simple between Driver and Phoenix with Phoenix likely sweeping everything but Driver at least being runner-up, but Pryce complicates things because a lot of people just can't dislike The Two Popes. If it were Miramax or TWC or even Fox Searchlight or Focus, I feel like it could have even been a contender for Best Picture, although coming right after Green Book, maybe it still would have just been a potential nominee instead of potential winner. Anyhow just when I want to drop him because of Netflix having two other bigger priorities, the shortened season and this having the latest release date of Netflix's films, and Pryce not getting any traction at all even from BAFTA last year, The Two Popes always manages to win another audience award or be talked about by some pundit or voter like The Film Experience just did a story about it and one of the Globe voters on Twitter just raved about it. I'm scared that almost everyone has been underestimating him, and he'll actually win everything not Phoenix or Driver, not that I don't like Jonathan Pryce but I just want the Anthony McCarten streak to end. I think Phoenix has got it locked down though, and even McCarten can't beat the Joker. I guess there's DiCaprio, but he's playing a struggling actor which should be catnip to the voters. I remember a lot of actors praising him on Twitter right after OUATIH was released too, so it's hard to see him actually missing. It could happen I guess because he just won, but I think he's safely filler for now. So that leaves De Niro or Banderas, and Banderas has SPC behind him and will have a lot of friends campaigning for him. If he had been nominated before, I'd probably leave him out, but I think that's something else in his favor. With De Niro, it doesn't make sense really, but I guess someone has to be left out, and even some that have seen The Irishman already are doubting De Niro. But when does DeNiro ever miss? He gets nominated for who he is. The Irishman will be a big Oscar player. He missed a surprising amount in the '80s: The King of Comedy (critically drubbed but like that stops the industry), The Mission (a freakin’ Best Picture nominee), The Untouchables (in an insanely weak year in which his co-star won), and if they were feeling frisky, Midnight Run in ’88. Since Cape Fear, he could've arguably gotten in for This Boy's Life, Casino, Jackie Brown, Wag the Dog (three of which actually got co-stars nominated) and maybe even a random supporting nod for American Hustle, in a year where they clearly creamed hard for that movie. De Niro is well-respected, but he's not Meryl Streep; they don't just check his name just because of who he is. And in a year where Best Actor is looking like a bloody dogfight, laziness isn't gonna be a factor. Even if The Irishman is a big Academy hit, I can easily see him getting drowned out by the supporting men in the film and just more general passion in Lead Actor for the men who don't already have two Oscars. We could have some surprises, or maybe it's just the consensus 5 with Banderas left out, but I think with Phoenix and Driver potentially siphoning a majority of #1 votes between them that maybe there will be a surprise or two. I'm guessing it will be Banderas, but maybe Egerton or Murphy could pop up. It's not exactly the same, but in 2017 the Best Actress race seemed pretty set before the nominations with Adams, Huppert, Portman, Stone, and Streep, but Adams missed out despite Arrival receiving 8 nominations. I don't think it was the only factor, but between Stone, Huppert, and even Portman, maybe they got the majority of first place votes and Negga just happened to get enough two and three placements to help her reach the magic number. On the other hand, voters can be pretty lazy sometimes and just namecheck a film in as many categories that they can if they really love it, so that works against Banderas. For now I'll leave him in, but momentum can certainly change during the season. Perhaps Driver will run the table on top tier critics' awards, or even the basic voters of SAG will go crazy for The Irishman, in which case I'd definitely drop Banderas.
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 25, 2019 5:34:53 GMT
I can see De Niro easily being in there. Imo Pryce is the one who won't make it.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 25, 2019 6:16:20 GMT
1. Phoenix 2. Driver 3. DiCaprio 4. Pryce 5. De Niro 6. Banderas 7. Egerton
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 25, 2019 8:20:39 GMT
I just looked at the years when there was at least 1 snubbee (got at least 2 precursor nominations from Globes/SAG/BAFTA) over the past 10 years and it's almost always the actors that are in the stronger movies that make it in.
2018 Nominees: 1. Malek - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Bale - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cooper - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Mortensen - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 5. Dafoe - Globe
Snubbees: 6. Washington - Best Picture + SAG + Globe (Exception)
2017 Nominees: 1. Oldman - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Kaluuya - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Chalamet - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Day-Lewis - Best Picture + BAFTA + Globe 5. Washington - SAG + Globe
Snubbees: 6. Franco - Screenplay + SAG + Globe (Slight exception)
2014 Nominees: 1. Redmayne - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Keaton - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cumberbatch - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Carell - Best Director + Screenplay + SAG + Globe 5. Cooper - Best Picture
Snubbees: 6. Gyllenhaal - BAFTA + SAG + Globe 7. Fiennes - Best Picture + BAFTA + Globe (Slight exception)
2013 Nominees: 1. McConaughey - Best Picture + SAG + Globe 2. Ejiofor - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. DiCaprio - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + Globe 4. Dern - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 5. Bale - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + Globe
Snubbees: 6. Hanks - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe
2012 Nominees: 1. Day-Lewis - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Jackman - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cooper - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Washington - SAG + Globe (2 nominations for his movie) 5. Phoenix - BAFTA + Globe (3 nominations for his movie)
Snubbees: 6. Hawkes - SAG + Globe (1 nomination for his movie)
2011 Nominees: 1. Dujardin - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Clooney - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Pitt - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Oldman - BAFTA + Globe (3 nominations for his movie) 5. Bichir - SAG + Globe (1 nomination for his movie)
Snubbees: 6. DiCaprio - SAG + Globe (0 nominations for his movie) 7. Fassbender - BAFTA + Globe (0 nominations for his movie)
As it relates to this year, this should favor DiCaprio, De Niro, and Pryce among the fringe contenders and hurt Banderas, Egerton, and Murphy (assuming OUaTiH, The Irishman, and The Two Popes are Best Picture contenders).
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 25, 2019 17:13:58 GMT
I just looked at the years when there was at least 1 snubbee (got at least 2 precursor nominations from Globes/SAG/BAFTA) over the past 10 years and it's almost always the actors that are in the stronger movies that make it in. 2018Nominees: 1. Malek - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Bale - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cooper - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Mortensen - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 5. Dafoe - Globe Snubbees: 6. Washington - Best Picture + SAG + Globe (Exception) 2017Nominees: 1. Oldman - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Kaluuya - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Chalamet - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Day-Lewis - Best Picture + BAFTA + Globe 5. Washington - SAG + Globe Snubbees: 6. Franco - Screenplay + SAG + Globe (Slight exception) 2014Nominees: 1. Redmayne - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Keaton - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cumberbatch - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Carell - Best Director + Screenplay + SAG + Globe 5. Cooper - Best Picture Snubbees: 6. Gyllenhaal - BAFTA + SAG + Globe 7. Fiennes - Best Picture + BAFTA + Globe (Slight exception) 2013Nominees: 1. McConaughey - Best Picture + SAG + Globe 2. Ejiofor - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. DiCaprio - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + Globe 4. Dern - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 5. Bale - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + Globe Snubbees: 6. Hanks - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2012Nominees: 1. Day-Lewis - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Jackman - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cooper - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Washington - SAG + Globe (2 nominations for his movie) 5. Phoenix - BAFTA + Globe (3 nominations for his movie) Snubbees: 6. Hawkes - SAG + Globe (1 nomination for his movie) 2011Nominees: 1. Dujardin - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Clooney - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Pitt - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Oldman - BAFTA + Globe (3 nominations for his movie) 5. Bichir - SAG + Globe (1 nomination for his movie) Snubbees: 6. DiCaprio - SAG + Globe (0 nominations for his movie) 7. Fassbender - BAFTA + Globe (0 nominations for his movie) As it relates to this year, this should favor DiCaprio, De Niro, and Pryce among the fringe contenders and hurt Banderas, Egerton, and Murphy (assuming OUaTiH, The Irishman, and The Two Popes are Best Picture contenders). Well that is very good for De Niro and bad for Banderas, so I guess this year so far would be closest to 2013 since right now it looks like De Niro, DiCaprio, Driver, Phoenix, and Pryce all have a good chance of having their films nominated for Best Picture. Of course, it doesn't work exactly because Pain and Glory won't be a BP nominee like Captain Phillips was.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2019 17:35:55 GMT
Banderas DiCaprio Driver Phoenix Pryce
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 25, 2019 17:37:45 GMT
Well that is very good for De Niro and bad for Banderas, so I guess this year so far would be closest to 2013 since right now it looks like De Niro, DiCaprio, Driver, Phoenix, and Pryce all have a good chance of having their films nominated for Best Picture. Of course, it doesn't work exactly because Pain and Glory won't be a BP nominee like Captain Phillips was. Pain and Glory is likely going to be a Best Foreign Language Film nominee, so that is something that should still keep him strong. Since the expansion of the Best Picture field, only Tom Hanks missed after getting Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe. And he was pushed out by actors who were in stronger movies like Dern in Nebraska, DiCaprio in Wolf, and Bale in Hustle. For Banderas to make it in, the closest precedents would be: 1. Bardem in Biutiful (but 2010 was a weak year and Bardem made it in over Duvall who only had SAG) 2. Dafoe in At Eternity's Gate (a complete WTF and not something you can count on repeating so soon) You'd have to think Banderas will have to push out one of DiCaprio, De Niro, and Pryce to make it in. If they happen to be in Best Picture nominees and get at least 2 precursors each, Banderas will also probably need 2 precursors to stay in contention with them, but it could be tough even then.
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Post by quetee on Oct 25, 2019 19:27:18 GMT
I just looked at the years when there was at least 1 snubbee (got at least 2 precursor nominations from Globes/SAG/BAFTA) over the past 10 years and it's almost always the actors that are in the stronger movies that make it in. 2018Nominees: 1. Malek - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Bale - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cooper - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Mortensen - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 5. Dafoe - Globe Snubbees: 6. Washington - Best Picture + SAG + Globe (Exception) 2017Nominees: 1. Oldman - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Kaluuya - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Chalamet - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Day-Lewis - Best Picture + BAFTA + Globe 5. Washington - SAG + Globe Snubbees: 6. Franco - Screenplay + SAG + Globe (Slight exception) 2014Nominees: 1. Redmayne - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Keaton - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cumberbatch - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Carell - Best Director + Screenplay + SAG + Globe 5. Cooper - Best Picture Snubbees: 6. Gyllenhaal - BAFTA + SAG + Globe 7. Fiennes - Best Picture + BAFTA + Globe (Slight exception) 2013Nominees: 1. McConaughey - Best Picture + SAG + Globe 2. Ejiofor - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. DiCaprio - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + Globe 4. Dern - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 5. Bale - Best Picture + Best Director + BAFTA + Globe Snubbees: 6. Hanks - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2012Nominees: 1. Day-Lewis - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Jackman - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Cooper - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Washington - SAG + Globe (2 nominations for his movie) 5. Phoenix - BAFTA + Globe (3 nominations for his movie) Snubbees: 6. Hawkes - SAG + Globe (1 nomination for his movie) 2011Nominees: 1. Dujardin - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 2. Clooney - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 3. Pitt - Best Picture + BAFTA + SAG + Globe 4. Oldman - BAFTA + Globe (3 nominations for his movie) 5. Bichir - SAG + Globe (1 nomination for his movie) Snubbees: 6. DiCaprio - SAG + Globe (0 nominations for his movie) 7. Fassbender - BAFTA + Globe (0 nominations for his movie) As it relates to this year, this should favor DiCaprio, De Niro, and Pryce among the fringe contenders and hurt Banderas, Egerton, and Murphy (assuming OUaTiH, The Irishman, and The Two Popes are Best Picture contenders). someone complied another list last year that didnt inclue bp. Ill try to find it. The only thing is we have to be on point with bp nods. You forgot adam and will Netflix really secure 3 of the 8 slots?
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 25, 2019 19:38:00 GMT
someone complied another list last year that didnt inclue bp. Ill try to find it. The only thing is we have to be on point with bp nods. You forgot adam and will Netflix really secure 3 of the 8 slots? I'm just assuming Driver and Phoenix are in. The fringe contenders like DiCaprio/De Niro/Pryce/Banderas/Egerton/Murphy will have a lot riding on the strength of their movies in terms of their chances of being nominated. As for whether Netflix can get 3 movies nominated, it looks like Marriage Story and The Irishman are pretty safe already. The only real question is The Two Popes. If The Two Popes misses a Best Picture nomination, I think Pryce will fall below DiCaprio and De Niro and will fight it out with Banderas (or Murphy/Egerton) for the last spot.
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hilderic
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Post by hilderic on Oct 26, 2019 13:31:37 GMT
I think all 3 of the Irishman guys are in - especially because Pesci will win some critics awards and I think Banderas is in too maybe - that group looks awfully white guys without him or Murphy. Banderas is a white European guy.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 26, 2019 13:48:42 GMT
I think all 3 of the Irishman guys are in - especially because Pesci will win some critics awards and I think Banderas is in too maybe - that group looks awfully white guys without him or Murphy. Banderas is a white European guy. , true which when you compare Banderas to Murphy's money and this below that puts them at right around the same level of whiteness
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Oct 28, 2019 20:47:54 GMT
I'll try and rank these in terms of likelihood for a nod: 1. Adam Driver. His film has broader appeal than Phoenix's and more winner equity than DiCaprio's. I'm betting on Baumbach as the Screenplay frontrunner, Netflix is sure to go all out for this one, and he has a co-star with equal raves who isn't going to be drawing votes from him. I think he's solid for the nomination. What keeps me from being confident in a win is that I feel like he's still too young and fresh-faced for the win at this stage in this category, and his role sounds far more subdued than, say, what Eddie Redmayne won for. I feel like this will just be another notch in Driver's belt that will see him through to a future victory, probably in a biopic. I also think that if Driver is our winner, that probably means Marriage Story takes Best Picture. 2. Joaquin Phoenix. The reviews for the performance are there, and individually his raves are a bit higher than Driver's . . . but that's also largely due to the nature of the role. It's louder, showier, more bombastic, which is exactly what the Academy favors. Yes, there's genre bias, but with Ledger having broken that glass ceiling, I still maintain it isn't that much of an issue in this case. In terms of a nomination, I still put Driver slightly ahead because I feel his film will have broader appeal (as I said above), but I think the fact that Joker won the Golden Lion makes up for that somewhat. It's a player in more ways than Best Actor, and Phoenix needed that to be the case. I think there's definite winner potential here. The only thing is, how will the notoriously publicity-shy Phoenix handle the campaign trail? I would also feel a bit more confident in his winner chances if Joker had the capability to pick up some token coattail nods along the way. 3. Leonardo DiCaprio. I don't think he's got any juice for the win besides a Comedy Globe (where he might be challenged by Murphy), but he seems pretty safe for the nod just by virtue of the fact that it's Leo. Still, Pitt's taken the lion's share of the awards talk already and I don't know if DiCaprio will experience a resurgence once campaign season begins in earnest. He just won, too, which I think takes some of the wind out of the sails. I dunno, I think he's reasonably solid for now but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he misses the final hurdle against some well-positioned passion picks. 4. Jonathan Pryce. Anthony McCarten's influence cannot be denied (unfortunately), and it sounds like everyone's creaming their jeans over this one from the responses I've read. I don't really see a path for a Pryce victory at this stage, unless he sweeps the critics or something, but it sounds like the sort of movie voters will be drawn to, and I can definitely see some support, especially in light of last year. 5. Eddie Murphy. Comeback stories are always a good thing, and it’s getting a lot of good response. It feels like it’s got “crowdpleaser” written all over it, and I just think it’s going to be an easier watch than, say, The Irishman. Plus it’s got the whole (sort of) Hollywood angle behind it. 6. Antonio Banderas. I’d be a lot more confident in this if I hadn’t actually seen it already. It’s good work, but it’s also really elliptical and internalized. I feel like if Banderas gets in, it’s on the back of his reputation more than the actual work here, which is definitely not what the Academy usually goes for. 7. Robert De Niro. I’ve expressed my doubts ad nauseam on this film and won’t bore with it here, but to sum it up: Scorsese misses as often as he hits, it’s an almost four-hour watch that might prove too grueling for voters, De Niro might be overshadowed by flashier work within his movie, the CGI worries, De Niro’s drought with the Academy, etc., etc. But I’ll put some points in his favor here: Netflix spent a shitload of money on this, and you’d think they would want to push it as hard as possible. It could be the big hit of the year, or it could get the Silence treatment (heh, silent treatment). Conventional wisdom says to me to keep it on the backburner for now. 8. Mark Ruffalo. Have we gotten word on this yet? I feel like it’s Haynes going conventional, which might help matters, but it might be too conventional. This is a year full of contenders but few winners. I agree about De Niro, while I disagree about Banderas. It's the type of foreign-language performance that the actors' branch dies for, and it's by a respected actor who has been consistent for a whole career and has worked at and knows many people in Hollywood.
Pryce would be at his first nomination, and it's going to be a Netflix movie about two popes talking to each other.
We must get ready from now for Driver vs Phoenix, two wildly different performances in two wildly different movies. Both actors are deeply devoted to their crafts. We can imagine where the critics will go (Driver, unless Banderas steals his thunder) but what about the industry? Phoenix's public persona can be off-putting but only Daniel Day-Lewis is more respected as an actor, and he's so fond of this characters that he's overcoming his quirkiness. Let's see the category placements chosen by the HFPA (I could see Marriage Story going to Comedy), but SAG will be a battle for the ages between these two.
The only thing Banderas has consistently been is MEDIOCRE, even in the hands of a genius like Almodovar. I haven't seen P&G yet, so maybe he'll surprise me there, but NO WAY does he have a remotely impressive body of work "for a whole career." He was EASILY one of the least charismatic "movie stars" of the 90's and the early 2000's.
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Post by stephen on Nov 4, 2019 20:28:35 GMT
I have the nagging suspicion we're gonna see George Mackay sneak into BAFTA for 1917. I've heard a lot of rumblings that he's excellent in the role, he recently was up for BAFTA Rising Star, and I think 1917 is gonna be the big spoiler for the British bloc this year.
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Post by quetee on Nov 4, 2019 20:37:01 GMT
I have the nagging suspicion we're gonna see George Mackay sneak into BAFTA for 1917. I've heard a lot of rumblings that he's excellent in the role, he recently was up for BAFTA Rising Star, and I think 1917 is gonna be the big spoiler for the British bloc this year. i think we're underestimating 1917.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 4, 2019 20:51:54 GMT
I have the nagging suspicion we're gonna see George Mackay sneak into BAFTA for 1917. I've heard a lot of rumblings that he's excellent in the role, he recently was up for BAFTA Rising Star, and I think 1917 is gonna be the big spoiler for the British bloc this year. i think we're underestimating 1917. Over at AwardsWorthy, there's been a few posters that have been predicting it for a couple of months now. I feel like they're overestimating it at this point only because we don't have any concrete word yet, and I'm just tired of basing predictions on buzz since that usually doesn't work out. I think so far the only good buzz that panned out this year was about Dern in Marriage Story, but even then I don't think she'd win if the category was more competitive. It seems really baity because it's like Dunkirk+Birdman, so I'm still predicting it for BP and BD and all the technical categories, but at the same time it seems so weird that Sam Mendes could win BP and BD again after winning for his debut, and not being nominated for 20 years, and only being somewhat close with Skyfall. Still if it lives up to the hype, it should win BAFTA of course. I don't know about PGA. It's possible if it's an awards juggernaut, but I'm thinking that OUATIH or The Irishman win there. OUATIH because it's about the industry and is one of the few original hits of the year. The Irishman because it could show that the industry has accepted that streaming is where the future of movies is headed. Golden Globe Drama I'm not sure yet. Probably The Irishman, but it could be 1917 or Marriage Story. Golden Globe Comedy/Musical I think will be OUATIH, but Jojo Rabbit is also right there too. BFCA is probably The Irishman. DGA is probably between Scorsese, Tarantino, and Mendes again assuming 1917 lives up to the hype. I wish that Bong Joon-ho had a chance there, but I think the field is too crowded this year unlike last year, and that the nomination will be his reward, if he even gets nominated there since DGA does tend to be more basic than AMPAS. SAG Ensemble I think will be Marriage Story; although, I've seen a lot of people predict Jojo Rabbit lately. I get that it has the kids factor and won TIFF, but I feel like Marriage Story having 3 individual nominations plus Alda/Liotta/Hagerty/Wever/Shawn will make it tough to beat. WGA is probably Marriage Story and Little Women, but I'm not as confident in Little Women as I am in Marriage Story.
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