2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor.

sticking with Jonathan Pryce.

I have no idea. There's a lot of potential nominees, but no one feels like a winner yet. I like that from the perspective of being excited about the awards race because races where it's already sewn up so early like when Gary Oldman won for Darkest Hour are boring, and then people get so bored they're like, "well _____ still has a chance if this and this happens," and of course that rarely ever happens. From a prognosticating standpoint though, I'll probably look more wrong, lol.

For the nomination,
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - I don't see him winning a second so soon, but I can't see him missing a nomination.

2. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory - I think if he had been a slightly bigger star or if the film was bigger, he'd have a chance to win, but I think a welcome to the club nomination after all the years that he's been in the business is the highest he'll go. He'll probably factor into critics awards though, and smaller awards like the Spirits and Gothams to some degree. Plus, this should lead to better roles and more recognition in the short term, so maybe he'll be like Colin Firth and come back and win on his second nomination.

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Pope - I guess Netflix is going to push this, but it will definitely be a second priority to The Irishman, and maybe even a third priority depending on how much of a push they give Untitled Noah Baumbach Project too. Can Anthony McCarten really go 4 for 4 in this category? Possibly. It should be a very baity role, but at the same time, I think that it could be a very controversial movie.

Plus, Freddie Mercury is so famous and is generally seen in a very positive light. Stephen Hawking is well known too, and although is generally seen in a very positive light too helped by his appearances on The Simpsons, The Big Bang Theory, and other pop culture things. Of course, Winston Churchill helped win WWII. I think if this film had been made earlier in Pope Francis's tenure, I think that factor would have been there, but now I think the shine has come off somewhat. I think he's still mostly seen as the humble person who washed people's feet, but at the same time he's the face of the Catholic Church. So even though he may personally absolve women who have had abortions and may speak out against the sex scandals plaguing the church, for better or for worse, some voters will also negatively associate him with those issues.

4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman - On paper it seems like it should be a slamdunk role for De Niro to be nominated with and possibly even win, but I have some doubt. I wonder if there's going to be too much hype. I think it will still get lots of nominations, but it could be snubbed in one or two big categories like Best Actor. I'll probably worrying for no reason, but there's still so much up in the air right now with it.

5. Adam Driver, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project - I don't really see Netflix being able to get 3 actors nominated in this category, but I don't want to drop any of these 3 yet. I know I've only heard about Laura Dern so far, but I can't imagine that Driver won't be in consideration too if she's that good, especially when he said it's his hardest role that he's had so far. I think he might have referred to that because of the subject matter, but nonetheless seems like it could be baity.

6. Taron Egerton, Rocketman - I still think that it's box office be unfairly compared to Bohemian Rhapsody, and that Egerton will end up missing in the end. However, it turned out to have better legs than some naysayers predicted, and just from looking at social media and forums online I think the general consensus is that Rocketman was a better film and performance than Bohemian Rhapsody. Feels like it came out too early in the year though especially as this category seems to get more and more competitive.


7. Eddie Redmayne, The Aeronauts - I feel like Felicity Jones will be nominated everywhere, but I don't know about Redmayne because of how competitive this category seems right now. Probably a Globe and BAFTA nominations, but for now I think he'll ultimately miss.

8. Viggo Mortensen, Falling - Could lightning strike two years in a row for Mortensen? On paper it sounds like a kind of feel good story, at least I'm assuming it will have a feel good ending, about a bigot learning that their views were wrong like Green Book, but then again it might be too much like Green Book. If he gets nominated though, watch out because I feel like he'll probably win.

9. Paul Walter Hauser, The Ballad of Richard Jewell - I feel like this could be very big if Eastwood nails it as we see more and more of the public believe in fake news, for lack of a better term. With social media I think that it's even worse as the Reddit Boston Marathon debacle showed. Plus, connected to that, imo, is how quickly people are canceled on social media despite having their words taken out of context because of clickbait or for whatever reason, and I think that many voters will be able relate on that level.

I don't know that Eastwood will be able to do that though. Maybe it will be an American Sniper or even a Million Dollar Baby, but it could also go the way of his other projects that had buzz that went nowhere in the end.

10. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar - It has a good release date, but I don't know what WB will prioritize right now.

-I don't know my top ten feels too white right now, but I don't think Queen & Slim will be a factor at the Oscars, maybe at the Spirits and Gothams, and Just Mercy might be pushed to next year or a non-factor this year. I heard good buzz from one person on Dolemite Is My Name, but I don't think there's any love lost between the Oscars and Eddie Murphy especially if he's playing a stand-up comedian. Also who knows where it will be on the list of priorities for Netflix. Definitely behind The Irishman and probably behind The Pope as well.

In a similar thread about 40 days ago, I posted this:


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Pryce - I'm not even sure this is coming out this year...
Leo - Probably a nom. Not a second consecutive win. I guess (Hanks has done it).
De Niro - I wish but I'm not sure he even gets nominated.
Egerton - Not happening right after Malek.
Patel - Is this coming out in the US till the end of the year?
McKellen - Why not? Even for old times sake, he could win.
Bale - I'd definitely see a win here.
Driver - He could be a strong contender if the film is Oscar-worthy.
Banderas - I'd love it but I don't think it's very likely, especially for Laundromat. Maybe he has a chance for Pain and Glory.
Oldman - Not really, no.
Dafoe - Could get a nod for sure.
Hanks - Almost 100% he will go for the supporting category.
Chalamet - Chances are high.

So, in my mind, Driver, Chalamet and McKellen stand a good chance this year but we're really shooting in the dark.
Maybe the Academy gets retrospective this year (possible noms/wins for Dafoe, Pryce, De Niro, McKellen, Pacino, Pesci, Lithgow, Hopkins) but either way I don't believe they'll give the BA Oscar to someone playing a real life character.


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Very few things have changed in my mind since then. One thing is that Banderas has much better chances after winning in Cannes. Also, I have a feeling Dafoe could be placed in the supporting category. So, Driver, Chalamet, McKellen, Banderas, Bale for me and RU Leo and De Niro.

I can't wait for Dolemite, those screenwriters were masters at the eccentric biopic in the '90s... and Rudy Ray Moore is a very, very fascinating figure, his professional/personal life.... should be a slam dunk Murphy perf but we'll see where they date it and how they handle it....

Others not mentioned - 
Ed Norton in Motherless Brooklyn, got a good Nov date from Warner Bros, Academy went for him Birdman, this a longtime passion project, handicap character (?) 
Sandler in Uncut Gems - A24 prob going Lighthouse strong but this looks like Safdie's going bigger on their urban urgent character driven thing like Good Time, in other words this could be a..... gem..... 

No damn clue lol. Seems like a weak field at the moment.

The Aeronauts | Eddie Redmayne
A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood | Tom Hanks
The Irishman | Robert De Niro
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood | Leonardo DiCaprio
Pain and Glory | Antonio Banderas

Alternates
The Good Liar | Ian McKellen
Joker | Joaquin Phoenix
The Pope | Jonathan Pryce
Queen and Slim | Daniel Kaluuya
Rocketman | Taron Egerton

Despite there being a lot of cons, I'm going with Banderas as the winner at the moment.

I'd love to see the five nominees being Banderas, De Niro, Murphy, Di Caprio and Pryce!!!

Joaquin Phoenix

Daniel Kaluuya

Antonio Banderas

Adam Driver (for the win)

Leonardo DiCaprio

I’m just gonna say: I think Daniel Kaluuya might be a stealth threat here. A breakout nominee two years ago, I think the Academy might respond very favorably to his film (provided it’s good, of course) and I think he’s got enough afterglow goodwill that he could snag a spot.

Completely agree. I can see Queen and Slim scoring very well.

And now's the time somebody pops up and says: Hanks is supporting...

I wouldn't know. Possibly a category fraud?

Thing is, he's most probably go for supporting.

This year we might have up to three "category fraud" of sorts in the BSA lot. Hanks, Bale and Pitt being leads (or mostly leads) but competing in the supporting category.

Just like last year, when Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were pushed in the supporting category to "make room" for Colman in leading.