vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Sept 16, 2019 16:08:28 GMT
I'm still sitting on Pryce in the lead, but not by much.
1. Pryce 2. Driver 3. Phoenix 4. DiCaprio 5. Banderas
DiCaprio could be the easiest to cut if he doesn't get an early win or two.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 16, 2019 16:57:15 GMT
De Niro DiCaprio Driver Phoenix Pryce
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Sept 17, 2019 14:00:10 GMT
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver, Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes Adam Sander, Uncut Gems
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Sept 17, 2019 21:56:31 GMT
I had Sandler on GD as my 100/1 dark horse but I'm already over it.
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Post by bob-coppola on Sept 21, 2019 14:33:54 GMT
With Motherless Brooklyn flopping overall, and Ad Astra possibly underwhelming financially, I moved some things on my predictions. Locks: 1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker — Warner 2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story — Netflix 3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood — Sony That's a strong top 3, and I think they're all safe for nominations/show up in every precursor. Joker has proven it has appeal to both masses and arthouse crowd (kind of), I think it'll be too big to fail. But, if he does fail, Driver will be there waiting to take over. Good bets: 4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes — Netflix: I didn't have much faith in this movie, but the actors got really good reviews. Could be this year's Viggo Mortensen (that one actor who was never winning and no one really care about, but was liked enough to show up eveywhere) 5. Antonio Banderas, Dolor y Gloria — Sony Pictures Classics: Driver and Pitt might challenge his status as the critics darling, but he's lucky no other arthouse contender emerged in the fall festivals. Maybe: 6. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters — Focus: I wasn't too crazy about the DW trailer, but it didn't look bad at all. Also, for better or worse, Ruffalo is 100% in his Spotlight mode 7. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra — Fox: it's being hailed as Pitt's career-best moment. Could just fuel his OUATIH's campaign, but could also lead him to double nominations. 8. Robert De Niro, The Irishman — Netflix: soon to be seen. Long shots: 9. Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn — Warner 10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman — Paramount Their hypes kind of died, but I'm not writing them off yet.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 28, 2019 16:42:09 GMT
Robert De Niro's ink:
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Post by doddgerhardt on Sept 28, 2019 23:34:35 GMT
DiCaprio De Niro Phoenix Pryce Driver
If Hollywood really is a strong contender, I would be surprised if DiCaprio was left out. Regardless of wherever one stands on Joker, Phoenix has the raves and his film has the buzz. Only knock against him is that he’s not one for campaigning. Driver seems like a lock with the love he’s received and he just was recently nominated. Pryce gets the overdue character actor nomination. Despite Banderas winning at Cannes, I think he’s gonna miss out here which is a shame because he’s a wonderful actor. I wouldn’t count out Bale. He’s started to be a regular nominee nowadays, but Ford vs Ferrari might need to make some decent money to keep it from being forgotten.
I think De Niro is in. I suppose some reviews highlighted Pacino and Pesci more, but De Niro is a legend reuniting with his long time collaborator and it sounds like there is barely a second he’s not on screen in this nearly 4 hour film. If he can get nominated for Silver Linings Playbook(ugh, love the guy, but not that nomination), I think he can get in for this.
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 29, 2019 11:08:11 GMT
Best Actor in a Leading Role 1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker 2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story 3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes 4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman 6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory 7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name 8. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters 9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems 10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman
I don't think the controversy around Joker will lead to anything at the moment, especially if it's a box office hit. I think they'll push Bale in Supporting, but if they go lead I'd have him at #7.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 30, 2019 20:07:50 GMT
1. Adam Driver - Marriage Story 2. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker 3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Robert De Niro - The Irishman 5. Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes
6. Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory 7. Eddie Murphy - Dolemite Is My Name 8. Mark Ruffalo - Dark Waters 9. Taron Egerton - Rocketman 10. Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 17, 2019 0:52:18 GMT
Sounds like Netflix doesn't really see Dolemite Is My Name as a serious Oscar contender. Ted Sarandos is the Chief Content Officer for Netflix.
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Oct 21, 2019 20:58:48 GMT
I just saw Dolemite today and really liked it! It's Ed Wood but in the 70's instead of the 50's. Give it 20 years and Scott Alexander/ Larry Karazewski will make a Kevin Smith biopic.
That being said, Eddie Murphy is Golden Globe bound. He's awesome, but it's not an Oscar performance.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 21, 2019 21:07:40 GMT
I just saw Dolemite today and really liked it! It's Ed Wood but in the 70's instead of the 50's. Give it 20 years and Scott Alexander/ Larry Karazewski will make a Kevin Smith biopic. That being said, Eddie Murphy is Golden Globe bound. He's awesome, but it's not an Oscar performance. I should start a thread on it because I saw it yesterday. It's very good, and I agree about the Ed Wood comparisons. Unfortunately I agree about Murphy missing the Oscars; although, for me he's probably my third favorite leading actor performance of the year behind DiCaprio for OUATIH and Pitt for Ad Astra. Of course, I haven't seen many Best Actor contenders yet, but I did like him slightly better than Taron Egerton and Joaquin Phoenix. Not that I didn't like Egerton and Phoenix, but I just preferred Murphy a bit more because I thought he really shaded his character well. He had some great subtle moments.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 21, 2019 22:39:15 GMT
You guys think Murphy can win the Globe?
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 21, 2019 22:48:32 GMT
You guys think Murphy can win the Globe? Depends on what else is classified a Comedy/Musical. If OUATIH and Marriage Story go Drama, I think Murphy would win. Of course, I haven't seen The Two Popes or Uncut Gems yet, but I think Murphy would be a worthy winner. He's also a bigger star than Pryce is, and probably a more respectable pick even with Sandler's raves than Sandler. (Also not sure if the Globes would go for something like Uncut Gems.) If either OUATIH and/or Marriage Story get classified as Comedy/Musical though, I can't see Murphy winning.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 21, 2019 23:06:10 GMT
Depends on what else is classified a Comedy/Musical. If OUATIH and Marriage Story go Drama, I think Murphy would win. Of course, I haven't seen The Two Popes or Uncut Gems yet, but I think Murphy would be a worthy winner. He's also a bigger star than Pryce is, and probably a more respectable pick even with Sandler's raves than Sandler. (Also not sure if the Globes would go for something like Uncut Gems.) If either OUATIH and/or Marriage Story get classified as Comedy/Musical though, I can't see Murphy winning. Haven't seen Dolemite, of course, but I can see Murphy beating DiCaprio. As I've said in the past, DiCaprio won Globes for his 2 previous performances, so the Globes might want to go with someone different. Murphy is one of the biggest comedy stars of all time, and they might see the allure of giving him the Comedy Globe. If Pitt happens to go Comedy Lead, though, I think he'll beat Murphy. I'm with you that Murphy isn't beating Driver if Marriage Story goes Comedy (which I don't think it will).
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 21, 2019 23:13:47 GMT
Pete Hammond: It’s official. Ford v Ferrari’s co-stars Christian Bale and Matt Damon have decided to buck the dismal odds of actors going against each other in the same category and will be campaigned by 20th Century Fox and Disney in the Lead Actor category at the Academy Awards and other contests including Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, SAG and BAFTA. Interesting development.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 21, 2019 23:19:30 GMT
Interesting development. Mmm, I was starting to wonder if I should drop Bale from both categories since both are really competitive. I thought he might have a better chance in supporting because it seems like there would be category fraud going on which would be an advantage for him, but in the end I think he still probably would have missed because of other contenders having more passion like Pesci. If he's going leading though, and it seems like they're going to run campaigns for both Damon and Bale, then I think he's definitely out now.
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Post by quetee on Oct 22, 2019 2:52:15 GMT
Well, right now, I'm going with the following:
Adam Joaquin Antonio Taron Leo
Spoiler: Pryce
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Oct 22, 2019 3:37:18 GMT
Out of the two leads, going off of just the trailer, Bale seemed more interesting despite having less screen time. If the Damon campaigning kills Bales chances then so be it.
I'm glad Best Actor isn't obvious yet.
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Post by stephen on Oct 22, 2019 3:52:44 GMT
Relieved to hear that Bale is going to be properly campaigned in the right category, as everyone who has commented on it that has seen the film deems a supporting play category fraud, and we've already got enough of that in Supporting Actor as it is.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Oct 22, 2019 4:58:02 GMT
Is The Two Popes comedy at the Globes??
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 23, 2019 0:01:15 GMT
And there lands the final piece of the puzzle.
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 24, 2019 2:17:29 GMT
Anyone else thinking it's gonna look like a Joaquin/Driver race until Leo sneaks up for his 2nd win? Any of 'em could get SAG - but they love Leo and that could be the turning point win. And if ScarJo/Dern are taking Lead/Supp - d'you think Driver might get the overkill bump? Or else, they go Driver... and ScarJo gets the bump... for Theron's 2nd win? What's the chances we have three winners (Leo, Theron, Pacino) winning their 2nd? I'm just airing out my jammed thoughts....
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 24, 2019 4:04:38 GMT
Anyone else thinking it's gonna look like a Joaquin/Driver race until Leo sneaks up for his 2nd win? Any of 'em could get SAG - but they love Leo and that could be the turning point win. And if ScarJo/Dern are taking Lead/Supp - d'you think Driver might get the overkill bump? Or else, they go Driver... and ScarJo gets the bump... for Theron's 2nd win? What's the chances we have three winners (Leo, Theron, Pacino) winning their 2nd? I'm just airing out my jammed thoughts.... A 2nd Oscar will be more difficult. They have to the sweep the televised precursors like McDormand and Ali (whose film also won BP).
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Oct 24, 2019 13:46:56 GMT
Is Banderas done? He's still sitting at 5 for me. I still got Pryce right up there with Driver/Phoenix.
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