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Post by quetee on Sept 8, 2019 1:03:37 GMT
Just saw It chapter II. Hader was very good in this,easily the best performance of the film. But from that point till he gets an Oscar nod, the distance is too much. isnt he supporting?
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 8, 2019 10:06:53 GMT
Just saw It chapter II. Hader was very good in this,easily the best performance of the film. But from that point till he gets an Oscar nod, the distance is too much. isnt he supporting? It's hard to say who's supporting in this movie really. I'd say McAvoy, Hader and Chastain are leading but if Hader or JC are put in supporting, it wouldn't be category fraud I guess. Anyway, any acting Oscar nod for this film is really far-fetched.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 8, 2019 17:48:10 GMT
Now that (almost) all the contenders have been seen and reviewed to an extent, here are who I think are plausible contenders (in alphabetic order):
Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory Robert De Niro - The Irishman Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver - Marriage Story Eddie Murphy - Dolemite Is My Name Joaquin Phoenix - Joker Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes Mark Ruffalo - Dark Waters
I had Michael B. Jordan in my previous predictions, but I think the movie's reviews aren't strong enough and Jamie Foxx seems to be stealing whatever thunder the movie has. I also had Robert De Niro, but I'm losing confidence in him after a lot of the contenders have gotten good reactions (especially Pryce, who I'm now predicting). I considered not putting Murphy on the list, but it's early days so I'll still give him a chance. Another name I considered putting on the list was Bale for FvF, but I have a feeling he'll ultimately be pushed Supporting. Of the contenders I listed out, I feel most confident about Driver. Phoenix made major strides over the last couple of days, so he should be good too. It starts to become dicey past those two, but I have DiCaprio next up. And then Pryce, but I wonder how much of a priority The Two Popes will be for Netflix. That leaves one spot, and I'm torn between quite a few guys. De Niro and Ruffalo are unknowns at the moment, and I feel like Banderas has a tough path given the nature of his performance. And then there's Murphy, who may or may not have happened in ordinary years and this is shaping up to be an abnormally tough year for this category. I think I'll tentatively go with De Niro at the moment, but I have a feeling he'll be out of my picks the next time I make my predictions.
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Post by stephen on Sept 8, 2019 20:07:34 GMT
Now that (almost) all the contenders have been seen and reviewed to an extent, here are who I think are plausible contenders (in alphabetic order): Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory Robert De Niro - The Irishman Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver - Marriage Story Eddie Murphy - Dolemite Is My Name Joaquin Phoenix - Joker Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes Mark Ruffalo - Dark Waters I had Michael B. Jordan in my previous predictions, but I think the movie's reviews aren't strong enough and Jamie Foxx seems to be stealing whatever thunder the movie has. I also had Robert De Niro, but I'm losing confidence in him after a lot of the contenders have gotten good reactions (especially Pryce, who I'm now predicting). I considered not putting Murphy on the list, but it's early days so I'll still give him a chance. Another name I considered putting on the list was Bale for FvF, but I have a feeling he'll ultimately be pushed Supporting. Of the contenders I listed out, I feel most confident about Driver. Phoenix made major strides over the last couple of days, so he should be good too. It starts to become dicey past those two, but I have DiCaprio next up. And then Pryce, but I wonder how much of a priority The Two Popes will be for Netflix. That leaves one spot, and I'm torn between quite a few guys. De Niro and Ruffalo are unknowns at the moment, and I feel like Banderas has a tough path given the nature of his performance. And then there's Murphy, who may or may not have happened in ordinary years and this is shaping up to be an abnormally tough year for this category. I think I'll tentatively go with De Niro at the moment, but I have a feeling he'll be out of my picks the next time I make my predictions. I'll try and rank these in terms of likelihood for a nod: 1. Adam Driver. His film has broader appeal than Phoenix's and more winner equity than DiCaprio's. I'm betting on Baumbach as the Screenplay frontrunner, Netflix is sure to go all out for this one, and he has a co-star with equal raves who isn't going to be drawing votes from him. I think he's solid for the nomination. What keeps me from being confident in a win is that I feel like he's still too young and fresh-faced for the win at this stage in this category, and his role sounds far more subdued than, say, what Eddie Redmayne won for. I feel like this will just be another notch in Driver's belt that will see him through to a future victory, probably in a biopic. I also think that if Driver is our winner, that probably means Marriage Story takes Best Picture. 2. Joaquin Phoenix. The reviews for the performance are there, and individually his raves are a bit higher than Driver's . . . but that's also largely due to the nature of the role. It's louder, showier, more bombastic, which is exactly what the Academy favors. Yes, there's genre bias, but with Ledger having broken that glass ceiling, I still maintain it isn't that much of an issue in this case. In terms of a nomination, I still put Driver slightly ahead because I feel his film will have broader appeal (as I said above), but I think the fact that Joker won the Golden Lion makes up for that somewhat. It's a player in more ways than Best Actor, and Phoenix needed that to be the case. I think there's definite winner potential here. The only thing is, how will the notoriously publicity-shy Phoenix handle the campaign trail? I would also feel a bit more confident in his winner chances if Joker had the capability to pick up some token coattail nods along the way. 3. Leonardo DiCaprio. I don't think he's got any juice for the win besides a Comedy Globe (where he might be challenged by Murphy), but he seems pretty safe for the nod just by virtue of the fact that it's Leo. Still, Pitt's taken the lion's share of the awards talk already and I don't know if DiCaprio will experience a resurgence once campaign season begins in earnest. He just won, too, which I think takes some of the wind out of the sails. I dunno, I think he's reasonably solid for now but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he misses the final hurdle against some well-positioned passion picks. 4. Jonathan Pryce. Anthony McCarten's influence cannot be denied (unfortunately), and it sounds like everyone's creaming their jeans over this one from the responses I've read. I don't really see a path for a Pryce victory at this stage, unless he sweeps the critics or something, but it sounds like the sort of movie voters will be drawn to, and I can definitely see some support, especially in light of last year. 5. Eddie Murphy. Comeback stories are always a good thing, and it’s getting a lot of good response. It feels like it’s got “crowdpleaser” written all over it, and I just think it’s going to be an easier watch than, say, The Irishman. Plus it’s got the whole (sort of) Hollywood angle behind it. 6. Antonio Banderas. I’d be a lot more confident in this if I hadn’t actually seen it already. It’s good work, but it’s also really elliptical and internalized. I feel like if Banderas gets in, it’s on the back of his reputation more than the actual work here, which is definitely not what the Academy usually goes for. 7. Robert De Niro. I’ve expressed my doubts ad nauseam on this film and won’t bore with it here, but to sum it up: Scorsese misses as often as he hits, it’s an almost four-hour watch that might prove too grueling for voters, De Niro might be overshadowed by flashier work within his movie, the CGI worries, De Niro’s drought with the Academy, etc., etc. But I’ll put some points in his favor here: Netflix spent a shitload of money on this, and you’d think they would want to push it as hard as possible. It could be the big hit of the year, or it could get the Silence treatment (heh, silent treatment). Conventional wisdom says to me to keep it on the backburner for now. 8. Mark Ruffalo. Have we gotten word on this yet? I feel like it’s Haynes going conventional, which might help matters, but it might be too conventional.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 8, 2019 20:37:56 GMT
Adam Driver's role is definitely not as showy and flashy as the Joker, but it has its bigger scenes, and there is a loud one in the third act of the movie that will win him a LOOOOT of votes. It's loud and vibrant and explosive, and so heartfelt.
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Post by pendragon on Sept 8, 2019 20:57:59 GMT
Matthew Rhys should probably be getting more consideration. Sure, Hanks is getting most of the attention right now (which is to be expected, since it's Tom Hanks playing Mr. Rogers), but Rhys has some great notices too. And if there's one thing that Hanks excels at lately, it's getting his costars nominated. In fact, I went back and checked and in the years since Hanks' last nomination, every single film of his that has scored major nominations, with the sole exception of Toy Story 3 (for obvious reasons), has gotten a nomination for someone else in the cast. That's a stat that bodes really well for Rhys.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 8, 2019 21:35:11 GMT
Now that (almost) all the contenders have been seen and reviewed to an extent, here are who I think are plausible contenders (in alphabetic order): Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory Robert De Niro - The Irishman Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver - Marriage Story Eddie Murphy - Dolemite Is My Name Joaquin Phoenix - Joker Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes Mark Ruffalo - Dark Waters I had Michael B. Jordan in my previous predictions, but I think the movie's reviews aren't strong enough and Jamie Foxx seems to be stealing whatever thunder the movie has. I also had Robert De Niro, but I'm losing confidence in him after a lot of the contenders have gotten good reactions (especially Pryce, who I'm now predicting). I considered not putting Murphy on the list, but it's early days so I'll still give him a chance. Another name I considered putting on the list was Bale for FvF, but I have a feeling he'll ultimately be pushed Supporting. Of the contenders I listed out, I feel most confident about Driver. Phoenix made major strides over the last couple of days, so he should be good too. It starts to become dicey past those two, but I have DiCaprio next up. And then Pryce, but I wonder how much of a priority The Two Popes will be for Netflix. That leaves one spot, and I'm torn between quite a few guys. De Niro and Ruffalo are unknowns at the moment, and I feel like Banderas has a tough path given the nature of his performance. And then there's Murphy, who may or may not have happened in ordinary years and this is shaping up to be an abnormally tough year for this category. I think I'll tentatively go with De Niro at the moment, but I have a feeling he'll be out of my picks the next time I make my predictions. I'll try and rank these in terms of likelihood for a nod: 1. Adam Driver. His film has broader appeal than Phoenix's and more winner equity than DiCaprio's. I'm betting on Baumbach as the Screenplay frontrunner, Netflix is sure to go all out for this one, and he has a co-star with equal raves who isn't going to be drawing votes from him. I think he's solid for the nomination. What keeps me from being confident in a win is that I feel like he's still too young and fresh-faced for the win at this stage in this category, and his role sounds far more subdued than, say, what Eddie Redmayne won for. I feel like this will just be another notch in Driver's belt that will see him through to a future victory, probably in a biopic. I also think that if Driver is our winner, that probably means Marriage Story takes Best Picture. 2. Joaquin Phoenix. The reviews for the performance are there, and individually his raves are a bit higher than Driver's . . . but that's also largely due to the nature of the role. It's louder, showier, more bombastic, which is exactly what the Academy favors. Yes, there's genre bias, but with Ledger having broken that glass ceiling, I still maintain it isn't that much of an issue in this case. In terms of a nomination, I still put Driver slightly ahead because I feel his film will have broader appeal (as I said above), but I think the fact that Joker won the Golden Lion makes up for that somewhat. It's a player in more ways than Best Actor, and Phoenix needed that to be the case. I think there's definite winner potential here. The only thing is, how will the notoriously publicity-shy Phoenix handle the campaign trail? I would also feel a bit more confident in his winner chances if Joker had the capability to pick up some token coattail nods along the way. 3. Leonardo DiCaprio. I don't think he's got any juice for the win besides a Comedy Globe (where he might be challenged by Murphy), but he seems pretty safe for the nod just by virtue of the fact that it's Leo. Still, Pitt's taken the lion's share of the awards talk already and I don't know if DiCaprio will experience a resurgence once campaign season begins in earnest. He just won, too, which I think takes some of the wind out of the sails. I dunno, I think he's reasonably solid for now but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he misses the final hurdle against some well-positioned passion picks. 4. Jonathan Pryce. Anthony McCarten's influence cannot be denied (unfortunately), and it sounds like everyone's creaming their jeans over this one from the responses I've read. I don't really see a path for a Pryce victory at this stage, unless he sweeps the critics or something, but it sounds like the sort of movie voters will be drawn to, and I can definitely see some support, especially in light of last year. 5. Eddie Murphy. Comeback stories are always a good thing, and it’s getting a lot of good response. It feels like it’s got “crowdpleaser” written all over it, and I just think it’s going to be an easier watch than, say, The Irishman. Plus it’s got the whole (sort of) Hollywood angle behind it. 6. Antonio Banderas. I’d be a lot more confident in this if I hadn’t actually seen it already. It’s good work, but it’s also really elliptical and internalized. I feel like if Banderas gets in, it’s on the back of his reputation more than the actual work here, which is definitely not what the Academy usually goes for. 7. Robert De Niro. I’ve expressed my doubts ad nauseam on this film and won’t bore with it here, but to sum it up: Scorsese misses as often as he hits, it’s an almost four-hour watch that might prove too grueling for voters, De Niro might be overshadowed by flashier work within his movie, the CGI worries, De Niro’s drought with the Academy, etc., etc. But I’ll put some points in his favor here: Netflix spent a shitload of money on this, and you’d think they would want to push it as hard as possible. It could be the big hit of the year, or it could get the Silence treatment (heh, silent treatment). Conventional wisdom says to me to keep it on the backburner for now. 8. Mark Ruffalo. Have we gotten word on this yet? I feel like it’s Haynes going conventional, which might help matters, but it might be too conventional. This is a year full of contenders but few winners. I agree about De Niro, while I disagree about Banderas. It's the type of foreign-language performance that the actors' branch dies for, and it's by a respected actor who has been consistent for a whole career and has worked at and knows many people in Hollywood.
Pryce would be at his first nomination, and it's going to be a Netflix movie about two popes talking to each other.
We must get ready from now for Driver vs Phoenix, two wildly different performances in two wildly different movies. Both actors are deeply devoted to their crafts. We can imagine where the critics will go (Driver, unless Banderas steals his thunder) but what about the industry? Phoenix's public persona can be off-putting but only Daniel Day-Lewis is more respected as an actor, and he's so fond of this characters that he's overcoming his quirkiness. Let's see the category placements chosen by the HFPA (I could see Marriage Story going to Comedy), but SAG will be a battle for the ages between these two.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 8, 2019 21:55:49 GMT
Still not sure who'll win. We have shit last year and We have very strong and competitive contenders this year, Driver, Banderas and Phoenix will fight to death for the throne. Oscar is unpredictable asshole, It tends to give itself to lovable/likable performances than badass and Anti-Hero but All-times great ones (Norma Desmond, Dr.Strange love, Travis Bickle) in the past. But Last year they gave the best actress to "the Strange all-time stuff" Rather than giving it to the more appropriate and much more deserving, the long awaited Glen Close! Strangely enough, Olivia Colman didn't get the most critics's choice but Toni Collette. Let's see where's the wind will bring Joaquin, He can either move to Hopkins'Lecter/Bates'Misery direction or to the same path with Alex De Large/Travis Bickle/Cody Jarrett. Banderas has to make very strong Campaigns, win Golden Globe to tackle Driver. I don't remember who won which award, but I went back and checked because I thought that Colman had a pretty sizable margin of victory over everyone else last year. From Metacritic's 2018 Film Awards ScorecardUnfortunately I'm not sure what the scores were like before the televised awards, but Colman still won two of the big three at the LAFCA and NSFC while Collette was only runner-up at the LAFCA.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 8, 2019 23:06:49 GMT
7. Robert De Niro. I’ve expressed my doubts ad nauseam on this film and won’t bore with it here, but to sum it up: Scorsese misses as often as he hits, it’s an almost four-hour watch that might prove too grueling for voters, De Niro might be overshadowed by flashier work within his movie, the CGI worries, De Niro’s drought with the Academy, etc., etc. But I’ll put some points in his favor here: Netflix spent a shitload of money on this, and you’d think they would want to push it as hard as possible. It could be the big hit of the year, or it could get the Silence treatment (heh, silent treatment). Conventional wisdom says to me to keep it on the backburner for now. Not sure what you mean when you say Scorsese misses as often as he hits. Critically speaking, he's perhaps the most consistent director around. As far as the Oscars go, he's still more consistent than almost anyone, getting 4 Best Picture/Director nominations for his last 7 movies. That's not a perfect track record, but who has a perfect track record? It looks like it's still in post-production. I just have him as a wild card based on the pedigree and the material. He could be a total non-factor.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Sept 9, 2019 0:56:58 GMT
Phoenix vs. Pryce vs. Driver sounds like the most interesting BActor race in years imo. Even the also-rans sound like potential critical favorites (Banderas, Dafoe).
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Post by wallsofjericho on Sept 9, 2019 18:47:15 GMT
Driver is getting flat out amazing reviews too. Looking forward to seeing him vs. Phoenix this season. Both guys reviews are pretty much on par.
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Post by stephen on Sept 10, 2019 15:39:53 GMT
Who do we reckon is going to be the critical favorite? Phoenix? Driver? Or can we someone random like Adam Sandler hit it big with the Tier 1 critics' groups?
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 10, 2019 15:43:12 GMT
Who do we reckon is going to be the critical favorite? Phoenix? Driver? Or can we someone random like Adam Sandler hit it big with the Tier 1 critics' groups? Driver and Banderas easily.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 10, 2019 15:49:48 GMT
Driver probably.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2019 15:51:36 GMT
Who do we reckon is going to be the critical favorite? Phoenix? Driver? Or can we someone random like Adam Sandler hit it big with the Tier 1 critics' groups? I actually think if The Irishman is worthy of a 3 1/2 hour "Godfather II" runtime it helps DeNiro/Scorsese in tandem - it's like a vote for that team. But obviously a huge "if". Sandler I anticipate being an East Coast thing but not sure I see it - I could see NYFCC .......Driver I picture doing wayyyyyyyyy better with critics than the Oscars (said it before, when do they ever reward a male who isn't the whole show/out front) he'll be nodded can't see him winning tbh..........and I think Hanks will go Lead when some conservative groups (NBR that means you) give him a Lead win and they decide who the fnck is Rhys anyway and he's never getting in for Lead and Good (Hanks) vs. Evil (Phoenix) makes a better Lead race than Driver/Phoenix for the reason I listed above. In general Phoenix but I see some divisiveness - this isn't going to be a Casey Affleck wire to wire show that I see at least.
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Post by thomasjerome on Sept 10, 2019 16:10:07 GMT
Banderas will certainly win something from one of those major critics groups but I feel like Driver will nearly sweep the rest as critics do love him and I'm not sure if "Pain and Glory" will sustain the buzz. Doubtful about Sandler as he never actually got nominated for an award by a single critics group in his career, no matter if he was in a PTA or Baumbach film. "Uncut Gems" is getting raves and he had a solid year with two Emmy nominations for an acclaimed comedy special and SNL performance, but I still feel like he has some passionate haters in those circles. So given his reputation, it may still be hard for him to win something big. Maybe runner-up mentions.
I struggle to think of any alternatives but considering Pattinson has been having a strong run recently, he may get something as well? (and Dafoe too obviously but not sure if the critics will put him in lead or not).
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Sept 10, 2019 16:26:16 GMT
Who do we reckon is going to be the critical favorite? Phoenix? Driver? Or can we someone random like Adam Sandler hit it big with the Tier 1 critics' groups? Banderas could win LAFCA and NSFC. Phoenix or Driver for NYFCC. These are the only 3 that matter imo.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 10, 2019 16:33:25 GMT
Yes, I thought Banderas or someone else might factor in before TIFF, but after the latest round of reviews, I think that there's a good chance he could sweep the top 3 especially if critics want to help his narrative to win over Phoenix. I don't know about NBR. They might go for it, but I could also see them going for someone else. I could see Marriage Story winning Actress or Supporting Actress there though because unfortunately they're not as packed for possible award group winners as the both mens category are this year. I could see Dern winning there, but I also think it might be hard for NBR to resist the charm of Zhao Shuzhen especially since they're usually very nice to A24 films. So maybe Johansson wins there instead unless they go for Zellweger, in which case Driver will probably end up winning NBR too. Johansson might pick up something, or I could see her being runner-up like at LA or NSFC. If NYFCC mentioned runner-ups still, I'm sure she'd get mentioned there because I have a feeling that Marriage Story will be the big winner there. LA and NSFC probably go with Parasite for Best Film, and Driver will be where they award Marriage Story. I think Dern will be like Allison Janney when she won. She might not win the most top critics' awards or any, but she'll do well with the regional awards and maybe pick up some big ones there like Boston, Chicago, Kansas City, etc., and sweep all the televised awards.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 10, 2019 16:51:37 GMT
So we're going back to the Pryce as lead and Hopkins as supporting narrative?
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2019 16:57:13 GMT
So we're going back to the Pryce as lead and Hopkins as supporting narrative? Yarp
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 10, 2019 17:35:41 GMT
So we're going back to the Pryce as lead and Hopkins as supporting narrative? I read somewhere that this is what Netflix is planning to do. I don't know if that's the case.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 10, 2019 17:46:47 GMT
Don't really see how having Pryce as Lead and Hopkins as Supporting would be a problem. While it's a two-hander, Pryce supposedly has more screen time and is the primary lead.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 10, 2019 18:15:31 GMT
Don't really see how having Pryce as Lead and Hopkins as Supporting would be a problem. While it's a two-hander, Pryce supposedly has more screen time and is the primary lead. Who says it's a problem?
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 10, 2019 20:06:04 GMT
Who says it's a problem? Who says somebody said it's a problem?
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 10, 2019 20:33:15 GMT
Who says it's a problem? Who says somebody said it's a problem? So we agree it won't be a problem. I think...
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