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Post by countjohn on Jan 22, 2019 22:43:06 GMT
Well, Roma is back to being the BP favorite with Green Book missing out on a director nom. If I recall only two recent films have won BP without a director nod (Argo and Driving Miss Daisy). Not really sure what could beat it other than Green Book.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 22, 2019 22:48:53 GMT
He totally was, though, especially after landing Globe and DGA nods. Golden Globes don't mean squat. The HFPA is its own irrelevant thing. I suppose you got me on the DGA nom, but here's how I'm looking at it right now- ASIB is probably projected to win like, one Oscar (original song). Where else is it favored? Gaga doesn't have a chance against Coleman and Close, Cooper is 3rd at BEST behind Malik and Bale, and it's unlikely to get anywhere in the techs. GB is the favorite for Screenplay and Supporting Actor. I just think it's going to get more love than ASIB, which leads me to think it has a better shot at winning Best Picture. But it's almost certainly going to go to Roma anyway, so the point I'm trying to make here is pretty moot. Oh, I'm not disputing that Cooper missing is a far bigger shock (I had him at #2 behind Cuarón, with Farrelly as #4 or #5), and the double blow of missing Directing and Editing means A Star is Born's chances have dropped significantly, with only SAG left to maybe revive it in the non-Song categories. Green Book is undoubtedly stronger than ASIB right now, I agree. I just mean that the momentum that Green Book managed to gain over the course of the past couple weeks (mini-sweep at the Globes, DGA nod, PGA win) really did make it look unstoppable for a moment there, which led me to predict Farrelly over McKay even if I always had him pretty low. But with that said, as much as I hate to cling to stats, I definitely think that missing Director is a pretty significant deal here. Three Billboards is looking like an apt comparison: TIFF Audience Award winners, crowdpleasers, Globe darlings, acting and Screenplay frontrunners, hit by controversies that seemed inconsequential at first until a Director miss and another film's surge cause us to reevaluate the race and wonder just what type of damage the bad press can wreak by the time the voting is closed. Obviously no one's gonna go "aww shucks, I'll have to rank Green Book lower now because Farrelly was snubbed", and the Editing nom helps its case a lot, but Roma, BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite all did too well for the Green Book team not to be sweating right now.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 22, 2019 22:55:11 GMT
Not really sure what could beat it other than Green Book. Well, BlacKkKlansman is the only film this season to hit all the major guilds including SAG Ensemble and to get all the major nods from the Academy (Picture, Director, acting, Screenplay and Editing), which means it's pretty widely appreciated and is therefore exactly the kind of Spotlight-ish consensus pick that might prevail on a preferential ballot, so there's that. But Spotlight at least won SAG Ensemble (which BlacKkKlansman might still take but isn't a sure thing for) and was up against really divisive competition that must've had a lot of voters ranking them very low, while BlacKkKlansman is up against a universally beloved frontrunner that overperformed big time today, so yeah, I don't think we'll see the same scenario play out this year unless people turn on Roma for some reason.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 22, 2019 23:27:29 GMT
As unpredictable and surprising the race was
The nominations are rather unsurprising (except for some few noms and snubs) and the winning race will be extremely predictable.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2019 0:08:33 GMT
I haven't seen ANY of the Best Picture nominees. I'm ridiculously behind on 2018 movies, sure, but still...most of those don't look any good. I'll definitely see Roma and The Favourite (although I dislike Lanthimos, this looks promising), probably the Spike Lee flick, maybbeee A Star is Born and Black Panther. Vice looks condescending and stupid and you'd have to pay me to see Bohemian Rhapsody. Green Book looks like a whole lot of nothing. Disappointed that Beale Street didn't get in, that's one of the few movies that looks really good I thought might have a chance.
I'd bet on Roma winning right now, but I'm not confident. Part of me can easily imagine the Academy going batshit and giving Black Panther the win.
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sirchuck23
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Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Jan 23, 2019 3:37:47 GMT
So happy for Spike/BlackKklansman, way overdue!
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CookiesNCream
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So what else is new?
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Post by CookiesNCream on Jan 23, 2019 4:52:10 GMT
Some thoughts:
Well, I did not really expect Black Panther to gain most of the nominations including Best Picture. I do found it interesting how Black Panther also became the first superhero film to receive a BP nom outside of the technical categories, and how it's also now probably the third non-comedy/drama/biopic film to receive that kind of nomination under the last 5 years (Mad Max: Fury Road, Get Out). The movie probably won't win, but it is certainly a biggest surprise!
Now out of the rest of the BP nominations, I'm probably just the most disappointed with the fact that Bohemian Rhapsody ended up on the list.
It's a shame that If Beale Street Could Talk didn't get a BP or BD nom at all.
The nominations for BlacKkKlansman seems like the biggest surprise for Spike Lee in a long time.
Roma is probably the first Netflix film to ever receive the most nominations so far. Nice!
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Post by hugobolso on Feb 25, 2019 2:39:42 GMT
I want Ben Shapiro presenting Best Picture to Black Panther
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Post by Joaquim on Feb 25, 2019 3:55:25 GMT
I want Ben Shapiro presenting Best Picture to Black Panther Okay, this is epic
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