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Post by Kirk-Picard on Jan 22, 2019 16:44:46 GMT
Cooper and Farrelly for Directing Hawke and Washington for Actor Blunt for Actress Chalamet for Supporting Actor Blunt, Robbie, Foy and Kidman for Supporting Actress A Quiet Place and Eighth Grade for Screenplay Roma, ASIB and First Man for Editing First Man for Original Score Black Panther for Visual Effects Won't You Be My Neighbor? for Documentary Burning for Foreign Language Film Thanks
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 22, 2019 17:54:45 GMT
I've needed some time to digest this -- Marina de Tavira was the biggest acting shock in a year. I think she's completely undeserved though and sad Foy missed for... her. I was against Robbie and Blunt taking Foy's spot too, but both would have been more deserving than de Tavira. Hopefully, this marks a change where foreign language performances can get a fair chance, but who am I kidding? It got the biggest Oscar push of any film in years and had an A-list director at the helm. -- While I'm sad that Kidman, Davis and Collette lost that fifth spot, I am extremely relieved Apricio got in over Blunt. I love Blunt, she's one of my favorite actresses, but she has been snubbed so many times, that I just think it would have been ridiculous she had gotten in for either MPR or AQP over her more worthy time. Here's hoping she'll got nominated for a truly deserving turn along the line. -- I don't know how everyone was deluding themselves over A Quiet Place getting into BP, original screenplay, score and supporting actress. -- That editing line-up was truly horrendous. Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book were all poorly edited films if you asked me. That they got in over First Man and several other worthier films is just baffling and renders the Oscars almost irrelevant. -- I yelled out in joy when they read Dafoe's name, and so fucking happy, but am so disappointed Hawke missed. Kind of relieved Washington missed, at least Dafoe got his spot. -- and did the same when both Pawel Pawlikowski and Yorgos Lathimos got in at the expense of Farrelly and Cooper. Very inspired. The BAFTA line-up was better though. Never thought I'd root for Cooper here but damn, he would have been more deserving than McKay. -- So happy for the Ballad of Buster Scruggs nods. Inspired! -- Cold War getting 3 major noms really made my day. -- I accurately (and boringly) predicted the BP line-up, was hoping First Man and If Beale Street Could surprise and the raise the quality but it was not to be. Easily the worst BP line-up since 2004. -- That Burning snub hurt. I was expecting it to miss but kept holding onto hope. Never Look Away looks so damn mediocre, I was unpleasantly surprised it got into cinematography as well. -- Won't Be My Neighbour getting snubbed was a massive snub, same goes for Three Identical Strangers. Not even Shirkers got in. What was going on with this branch???
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Post by quetee on Jan 22, 2019 18:01:44 GMT
Well, several of us were right dating back March 18 that Black Panther would score Bp.
Was also right that First Man would not score top 8.
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Post by stephen on Jan 22, 2019 18:04:52 GMT
Well, several of us were right dating back March 18 that Black Panther would score Bp. It was starting to look touch and go there at the end, though, with all those guild misses.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 22, 2019 18:47:30 GMT
McKay in over Cooper, Chazelle, and Jenkins is a disgrace.
Vice's direction is easily the worst aspect of the film.
And how does First Man miss score?
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 22, 2019 18:52:44 GMT
Maybe Cooper wins actor now with the directing sub a la Argo winning Best Picture after Affleck's snub.
SAG will determine it.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 22, 2019 18:54:48 GMT
I'm so happy about Marina de Tavira's nomination. She was brilliant . Besides , everything's so goddamn predictable nowadays so it's kind of nice to have those kind of "shocking" nominations once in a while.
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Post by quetee on Jan 22, 2019 18:56:33 GMT
Maybe Cooper wins actor now with the directing sub a la Argo winning Best Picture after Affleck's snub. SAG will determine it. Does the Directing branch not like Actors turned directors? Either that or screenplay.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 22, 2019 18:58:22 GMT
Does the Directing branch not like Actors turned directors? Unlikely, both Gerwig and Peele managed to get in here last year. Plus there's a ton that have won before (Eastwood x2, Redford, Beatty, Gibson, etc.).
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Post by stephen on Jan 22, 2019 18:59:35 GMT
Does the Directing branch not like Actors turned directors? Unlikely, both Gerwig and Peele managed to get in here last year. Plus there's a ton that have won before (Eastwood x2, Redford, Beatty, Gibson, etc.). I think they just rolled their eyes at that stupid "drunk direction" story Cooper told.
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Post by quetee on Jan 22, 2019 18:59:50 GMT
Maybe they think Copper hasn't earned it yet.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 22, 2019 19:00:30 GMT
Does the Directing branch not like Actors turned directors? Unlikely, both Gerwig and Peele managed to get in here last year. Plus there's a ton that have won before (Eastwood x2, Redford, Beatty, Gibson, etc.). Ugh. Completely overlooked last year.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 22, 2019 19:06:12 GMT
Maybe Cooper wins actor now with the directing sub a la Argo winning Best Picture after Affleck's snub. SAG will determine it. Does the Directing branch not like Actors turned directors? I don't think they dislike actors, they just tend to think outside the box and go with more unorthodox choices than most other branches, which is why we get so many unexpected passion picks from them (over the past 8 years we've seen Malick, Allen, Haneke, Zeitlin, Bennett Miller, Abrahamson, PTA and now Pawlikowski all surprise at the 11th hour, though of course they weren't all at the same level of surprise). What's most likely is that most voters just assumed that Affleck and Cooper were safe and directed their #1 and #2 support elsewhere to help out the perceived underdogs, which in off years like 2012 and 2018 results in safe, consensus picks that were probably on a lot of ballots (like Cooper and Farrelly) missing out and making room for alternatives that were probably seen by less people but inspired more avid passion (Pawlikowski). All 5 nominees this year have their detractors, but they also elicit stronger reactions from their supporters, which results in more points from #1 votes. That's probably it, not some anti-actor stigma. As others have pointed out, Peele and Gerwig got in just last year.
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Post by quetee on Jan 22, 2019 19:16:58 GMT
So Brad Pitt production company got another BP nod.
Another producer nod for Peele.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 22, 2019 19:19:37 GMT
I don't think they dislike actors, they just tend to think outside the box and go with more unorthodox choices than most other branches, which is why we get so many unexpected passion picks from them (over the past 8 years we've seen Malick, Allen, Haneke, Zeitlin, Bennett Miller, Abrahamson, PTA and now Pawlikowski all surprise at the 11th hour, though of course they weren't all at the same level of surprise).. Or they are the branch that watch as many movies as possible in a given year? I feel like that's possible. Directors seem to be more passionate about it.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 22, 2019 20:44:44 GMT
Maybe Cooper wins actor now with the directing sub a la Argo winning Best Picture after Affleck's snub. SAG will determine it. That’s what I’ll be rooting for now.
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Post by pendragon on Jan 22, 2019 20:48:32 GMT
As I see it, there are now 3, maybe 4 films that can plausible win Best Picture.
Roma mostly over-performed this morning and its surprise acting nominations shows it has support from the acting branch, which is crucial. It has the reviews, momentum and narrative on its side. Its only missed nomination is Editing, which does give one pause, as BP winners almost never miss this. Then again, the film is composed mostly of long takes and Birdman missed here as well, so it may not be that significant. Then there's still the Netflix question. While it's clear that any push-back for its release platform wasn't strong enough to cost it nominations, could it hurt it just enough in the final stretch to cost it the win?
Then there's Green Book, the traditional Oscar film with a traditional release platform. Despite recent demographical changes to the Academy, there's still a large chunk that loves these kind of films. Yes, it missed a directing nomination, but so did the film's spiritual predecessor, Driving Miss Daisy. It did score an editing nomination, which it wasn't exactly begging for. While the controversies around those involved with the film don't seem to have slowed it down so far, they could intensify in the coming weeks. February 19th when voting closes is still a ways off.
Between those two, BlacKkKlansman could position itself as a compromise: a somewhat traditional, but still edgy alternative. It's hit everything it needs to, barring a Best Actor snub, and there's little directly against it. That said, its also been pretty under-the-radar so far, and needs something to show that its more than just people's 2nd or 3rd choice. A SAG Ensemble win would help it immensely.
Trailing behind those, but still technically a viable contender, is The Favourite. With 10 nominations, it tied with Roma for the most and got everything it was predicted to get. That said, it missed a number of key precursors and less adventurous moviegoers have been put off by its...oddness. On paper, it might seem like a strong contender, but I remain skeptical.
A Star Is Born, after this, might be truly dead and buried. Some might bring up an Argo comparison, but that had already won BP/BD at the Globes and had a lot more momentum. Star, though, has nothing to really show for its hype and is fading into irrelevancy.
The other nominees are just happy to be there.
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Post by Joaquim on Jan 22, 2019 20:50:36 GMT
mlk didn't die for this
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Post by quetee on Jan 22, 2019 20:51:09 GMT
Has anyone ever directed 3 people to acting nods and not scored directing nod?
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 22, 2019 20:54:51 GMT
Pretty mixed bag with some shockers and snubs as expected. Haven’t seen Roma yet (need to get to this ASAP) so I can’t judge the actresses yet but both noms were quite surprising to me. No First Man in Score and Editing is just ridiculous. Even with just expecting ASIB to walk away with song, I was shocked to see it miss Director and Editing. Not surprising is none of my outside miracles happened.
Also, Rockwell is one of my favorite actors but it’s hard for me to get on board with his nom. Either way, he’s great though and this can make up for one of his many previous snubs.
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Post by pendragon on Jan 22, 2019 21:02:40 GMT
Has anyone ever directed 3 people to acting nods and not scored directing nod? Recently, Three Billboards, The Master, The Help, Doubt off the top of my head.
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 22, 2019 21:03:21 GMT
As I see it, there are now 3, maybe 4 films that can plausible win Best Picture. Roma mostly over-performed this morning and its surprise acting nominations shows it has support from the acting branch, which is crucial. It has the reviews, momentum and narrative on its side. Its only missed nomination is Editing, which does give one pause, as BP winners almost never miss this. Then again, the film is composed mostly of long takes and Birdman missed here as well, so it may not be that significant. Then there's still the Netflix question. While it's clear that any push-back for its release platform wasn't strong enough to cost it nominations, could it hurt it just enough in the final stretch to cost it the win? Then there's Green Book, the traditional Oscar film with a traditional release platform. Despite recent demographical changes to the Academy, there's still a large chunk that loves these kind of films. Yes, it missed a directing nomination, but so did the film's spiritual predecessor, Driving Miss Daisy. It did score an editing nomination, which it wasn't exactly begging for. While the controversies around those involved with the film don't seem to have slowed it down so far, they could intensify in the coming weeks. February 19th when voting closes is still a ways off. Between those two, BlacKkKlansman could position itself as a compromise: a somewhat traditional, but still edgy alternative. It's hit everything it needs to, barring a Best Actor snub, and there's little directly against it. That said, its also been pretty under-the-radar so far, and needs something to show that its more than just people's 2nd or 3rd choice. A SAG Ensemble win would help it immensely. Trailing behind those, but still technically a viable contender, is The Favourite. With 10 nominations, it tied with Roma for the most and got everything it was predicted to get. That said, it missed a number of key precursors and less adventurous moviegoers have been put off by its...oddness. On paper, it might seem like a strong contender, but I remain skeptical. A Star Is Born, after this, might be truly dead and buried. Some might bring up an Argo comparison, but that had already won BP/BD at the Globes and had a lot more momentum. Star, though, has nothing to really show for its hype and is fading into irrelevancy. The other nominees are just happy to be there. That sums it up pretty nicely. I view the race pretty similar. Right now I'd think that the missed directing nom hurts Green Book more than Editing for Roma. Therefore I'd still make Cuaron's movie the favorite.
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Jan 22, 2019 21:07:09 GMT
Yeah but Farrelly wasn't expected to get in like Cooper was here. I think GB can still win based on its nominations in editing, screenplay, and acting. Roma is still the favorite though, absolutely. He totally was, though, especially after landing Globe and DGA nods. Golden Globes don't mean squat. The HFPA is its own irrelevant thing. I suppose you got me on the DGA nom, but here's how I'm looking at it right now- ASIB is probably projected to win like, one Oscar (original song). Where else is it favored? Gaga doesn't have a chance against Coleman and Close, Cooper is 3rd at BEST behind Malik and Bale, and it's unlikely to get anywhere in the techs. GB is the favorite for Screenplay and Supporting Actor. I just think it's going to get more love than ASIB, which leads me to think it has a better shot at winning Best Picture. But it's almost certainly going to go to Roma anyway, so the point I'm trying to make here is pretty moot.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 22, 2019 21:42:52 GMT
This was actually so, so much better than I expected. To me, it's pretty clear that Roma has BP in the bag and I really don't get why people are still doubting it. The editing snub is something so minor compared to getting two actresses who didn't make it in any other precursor - one didn't even have much buzz - and will certainly win BD. Birdman won without Editing, something like this could happen. Does anyone really believe that Roma's biggest threat is Green Book, a movie that missed BD?
In my humble opinion, a BD snub is waaaaaay worse than an Editing snub. It's like people who are certain that 3BB was the runner-up last year when it clearly was Get Out. Actually, there are so many parallels: an unorthodox movie directed by a mexican man running against an acclaimed race-centered comedy by a black man, and people believing a racially-insensitive that missed BD stood any chance. Blackkklansman and The Favourite are ahead of GB in the Oscar game, two movies that overperformed in contrarian to one that underperformed after weeks of being claimed as the frontrunner.
It was very good to see both Lanthimos and Pawlikowski getting in. Farrelly had no business in the directing conversation, and even though I liked ASIB, Cooper is not as deserving as the people who actually got in. Also, it's very nice that my two favorite films of the year completely dominated the number of nominations.
Ah, and poor Blunt. She had two chances this year, but she was murdered by the Roma ladies.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 22, 2019 22:36:51 GMT
Does anyone really believe that Roma's biggest threat is Green Book, a movie that missed BD? Yes
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