the official 2024 US Presidential Election thread

I'm avoiding this thread like the plague but you asked so I'll answer 

last I saw 538 gave GOP 87% to take the senate in their senate model. I don't think it's that much of a slam dunk but it's gotta be at least 70%+ with FL, TX, and MT fighting from behind. For dems to keep the senate would be for the electorate to be much bluer than polls are showing. I doubt they keep the senate short of a Harris landslide.

my predix: 51/49 GOP

AZ - Gallego
(Lake is deeply unpopular in AZ and running against a much stronger candidate than Hobbs. Plus everytime I see her face it looks AI-generated so remains unclear if she's an actual person or a rogue-AI created by Elon. There's something about the way her skin glows in her interviews. Really creepy!)

FL - Scott
(when in doubt, expect FL to go red by 5-10 points, even for a crook like Scott. I don't buy the close race based on some polling, this is Scott's to lose)

MI - Slotkin
(she's a tough candidate and MI loves their dem women, it's a friendly state for her)

MT - Sheehy
(Tester is just too far behind in the polling. Sheehy seems like a slimy businessman politician and he keeps getting hit with scandals but it's a Trumpy state and top of ticket will comfortably carry him over the line. Tester's only hope is a historic level of ticket-splitting even higher than what Susan Collins pulls)

NE - Fischer
(THIS is one to watch, because some polling internal and otherwise has shown indie Osborn closing in. An upset here is dems' best chance at "keeping" the senate even though he's said he won't caucus with either party (but he will, and best case is he's another Manchin). I think Fischer pulls it out with the incumbency advantage but I hope it's at least close)

NV - Rosen
(some polls have shown her leading double digits -- I don't buy it but I still think she wins comfortably even if Trump finally manages to flip the state. She's a fairly popular incumbent.)

OH - Brown
(this will be the difference between 51 and 52 GOP majority. I think Brown ekes it out but it's going to be tight)

PA - Casey
(Going to win with Fetterman margins or slightly below)

TX - Cruz
(Cancun Cruz will win again. It's a red-leaning state by several points and Cruz gets the incumbent advantage. I know he's not well liked but he'd have to be next-level toxic to lose in TX and that's just not the case)

WI - Baldwin
(popular incumbent in a state that's been trending blue over the last few cycles. Hovde is a businessman outsider so it's Fetterman/Oz all over again. WI leans right of PA so her margin will be smaller, but I don't buy Baldwin losing this race)

ROFLMAO


There you have it.   The Mel has spoken.   In the last few years, I've come around on him big time.   In the early 00s, I surely found him overrated.   Braveheart is a giant snooze, Apocalypto is ambitious but clearly no maestro work, The Passion of the Christ is boring, and most of his other movies aren't so interesting.

But I rewatched The Patriot.   It's so underrated - one of my favorite war epics.  I like Signs more than The Sixth Sense then, and so do I now.  I liked him in Conspiracy Theory too, opposite Julia.   And What Women Want is good prime early 00s comedy.  Apocalypto has risen to being a good movie (not a masterpiece but it's good), Gallipoli is great stuff, and The Year of Living Dangerously was Weir at the top of his game.  And whatever else I've forgotten.   

He knows a heck of a lot more about how to plz the audience than Kamala Harris - that's for sure.   Hes just echoing what most Independents and non Democrats are thinking.   Stating the obvious, rly.

This diva ate down.

“I’m just gonna watch and make sure you don’t finish”. Nahhh that’s just fucking rancid lmao

.........

Funny fucker ......or ............frightening

Well, the Redskins won all their Super Bowls in Republican presidential years so unless they win this year (doubtful)....that's cute superstition. Just like that Allan Lichtman guy.... superstition, right?

tony hinchcliffe with the last minute save for the democratic party?? lmaoo

I don't have a meme or sarcastic joke here. That Nazi rally was next level awfulness. You Americans are completely fucked. I'm sorry.

Congratulations to Donald Trump ...the first candidate in history responsible for his own October surprise. 🤣