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Post by iheartamyadams on Aug 22, 2024 21:11:33 GMT
Colman Domingo is going to get it this round, mark my words!! ..? The film came out quite early and is flopping at the box office. It is sadly not catching on, despite great reviews and audience response. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 23, 2024 0:13:27 GMT
Colman Domingo is going to get it this round, mark my words!! ..? The film came out quite early and is flopping at the box office. It is sadly not catching on, despite great reviews and audience response. Who's your winner prediction atp?? |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Aug 23, 2024 0:48:10 GMT
..? The film came out quite early and is flopping at the box office. It is sadly not catching on, despite great reviews and audience response. Who's your winner prediction atp?? I think it may actually be Chamalet. The role feels right.. just need to see if it’s acclaimed and how the roll out goes. Domingo makes sense as an early frontrunner but this is a lot of time to sustain buzz that is arguably already fading. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 23, 2024 13:01:12 GMT
I would actually say I would be shocked if Chalamet WON BA for playing Dylan - almost as shocked as an American winnng for Shaekespeare ........there has to be an inherent bias AGAINST an actor playing a part that iconic while Dylan's still alive - you could just nitpick it to Death - sight unseen.......not saying he won't get nodded but the bar he has to surpass to win is pretty daunting
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 23, 2024 13:26:54 GMT
I think Chalamet's age (28) and his leading man/sex symbol status really, really hurt his chances of winning, even if it's a great performance. He'd overtake Adrien Brody as the youngest Best Actor winner in history.
There used to be a theory bandied about by Goldderby editor Tom 'O Neil, called "Slap The Stud syndrome", which basically said that Academy Voters hate giving Oscars to handsome, rich leading men who have already got everything, when they are too young. And Chalamet fits right into that category. They tend to make them wait a bit longer. It's almost the opposite for women, where your odds of winning are better when you are an ingenue.
It all depends on the competition of course, but my gut instinct for now, is that even if Chalamet is win competitive, the Oscar will go to someone older than him.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Aug 23, 2024 13:39:20 GMT
I think Chalamet's age (28) and his leading man/sex symbol status really, really hurt his chances of winning, even if it's a great performance. He'd overtake Adrien Brody as the youngest Best Actor winner in history. There used to be a theory bandied about by Goldderby editor Tom 'O Neil, called "Slap The Stud syndrome", which basically said that Academy Voters hate giving Oscars to handsome, rich leading men who have already got everything, when they are too young. And Chalamet fits right into that category. They tend to make them wait a bit longer. It's almost the opposite for women, where your odds of winning are better when you are an ingenue. It all depends on the competition of course, but my gut instinct for now, is that even if Chalamet is win competitive, the Oscar will go to someone older than him. So you were good predicting Butler to win for Elvis but not Chalamet for Dylan? |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Aug 23, 2024 13:40:14 GMT
I’m also predicting Chalamet currently. I think his movie will be pretty successful with boomers going out in droves to see it in the theater.
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2024 13:40:24 GMT
I do agree that Chalamet seems exceedingly young, but it could well be a perfect storm for him. He's a known quantity in the industry, he's already got one nomination under his belt, he's already had a big blockbuster success this year and he's playing Bob Dylan in a movie made by a guy who is very good at making musical biopics, and it's Searchlight. So what if it's not playing festivals? It's not a movie that needs to. It's Academy bait. All it needs is to drop at the right time in a field that doesn't have a juggernaut sweeper, and it can all be timed perfectly.
I do feel Domingo's waning, though. Sing Sing is just not catching alight the way it needs to be right now, and while it could get a second wind with Academy screenings and screeners later on in the season, I just am not feeling it as the slam-dunk frontrunner for Best Actor that so many people assume it to be.
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 23, 2024 13:46:14 GMT
I think Chalamet's age (28) and his leading man/sex symbol status really, really hurt his chances of winning, even if it's a great performance. He'd overtake Adrien Brody as the youngest Best Actor winner in history. There used to be a theory bandied about by Goldderby editor Tom 'O Neil, called "Slap The Stud syndrome", which basically said that Academy Voters hate giving Oscars to handsome, rich leading men who have already got everything, when they are too young. And Chalamet fits right into that category. They tend to make them wait a bit longer. It's almost the opposite for women, where your odds of winning are better when you are an ingenue. It all depends on the competition of course, but my gut instinct for now, is that even if Chalamet is win competitive, the Oscar will go to someone older than him. So you were good predicting Butler to win for Elvis but not Chalamet for Dylan? was 32. He'd have been a young Best Actor winner, but not the youngest in history. There have been quite a few winners in their 30's. Almost none in their 20's. And crucially, as far as most of the industry was concerned, Butler was an unknown. He was not an established leading man that had everything like Chalamet. He was a fresh guy that came out of nowhere, so people haven't had time to build up resentments at his career. Now Butler would have more of an issue winning, because he's the new Hollywood Golden Boy. But he wasn't with Elvis.Even with all of that, and being win competitive, Butler still lost to an older, former "Stud" in Brendan Fraser. So maybe it still went against him, even though I thought he might have a shot as a fresh face to win on merit. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 23, 2024 14:04:00 GMT
What's the status on Sebastian Stan's releases? The guy is having a career year, winning the Berlin Silver Bear for Best Actor for A Different Man and getting real acclaim for his Donald Trump in The Apprentice.
He feels like the kind of actor who has been around for awhile, paid his dues, isn't too young anymore, and has that kind of narrative going for him to maybe win. But I'm not even sure what he's going to be pushed for since he's the lead in both movies.
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2024 14:10:52 GMT
What's the status on Sebastian Stan's releases? The guy is having a career year, winning the Berlin Silver Bear for Best Actor for A Different Man and getting real acclaim for his Donald Trump in The Apprentice.He feels like the kind of actor who has been around for awhile, paid his dues, isn't too young anymore, and has that kind of narrative going for him to maybe win. But I'm not even sure what he's going to be pushed for since he's the lead in both movies. There's just no way in hell that he gets nominated for playing Trump in The Apprentice. I've said it before, but the Academy has a huge reticence for recognizing living portrayals of extremely controversial figures. Jeremy Irons is really the only person who's ever won for playing a living figure with that level of baggage, and while yes, Christian Bale/Sam Rockwell/Amy Adams did get recognized for Vice a few years ago, that movie was a much stronger player than The Apprentice promises to be (and Bale/Rockwell were prior winners and Adams a perennial nominee). I think Stan's ceiling for this film is a Globe nomination (and I think they may well go for him there with possible double nominations). Honestly, if A24 had the sack for it, they'd run him hard for A Different Man and promote him and Adam Pearson on the circuit hard. People would know about The Apprentice and be aware that Stan has the range, but he's already won a big prize for a film that is much safer and deals with something the Academy usually likes (actors playing actors!). |
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2024 14:23:46 GMT
So you were good predicting Butler to win for Elvis but not Chalamet for Dylan? was 32. He'd have been a young Best Actor winner, but not the youngest in history. There have been quite a few winners in their 30's. Almost none in their 20's. And crucially, as far as most of the industry was concerned, Butler was an unknown. He was not an established leading man that had everything like Chalamet. He was a fresh guy that came out of nowhere, so people haven't had time to build up resentments at his career. Now Butler would have more of an issue winning, because he's the new Hollywood Golden Boy. But he wasn't with Elvis.Even with all of that, and being win competitive, Butler still lost to an older, former "Stud" in Brendan Fraser. So maybe it still went against him, even though I thought he might have a shot as a fresh face to win on merit. I don't know if I quite agree with this line of thinking. I think if Austin Butler is a prior nominee before Elvis, he conceivably gets further and might even win because of audience and voter familiarity. Yeah, his youth works against him but that year was extremely atypical in that they were all first-time nominees and it was a rather messy year with no real frontrunner momentum. Farrell was the critics' favourite, Butler won Globe and BAFTA, Fraser the SAG and the Oscar. If Butler had a Call Me By Your Name under his belt by then, I think that would've juiced him to the win the way we've seen it pan out for Best Actress ingenues like Natalie Portman and Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone. It's rare for it to happen in Best Actor for someone so young, but it's even rarer for someone who is almost entirely an unknown to win a leading Oscar anyway. I mean, I can't think of a time when it has happened. The closest is maybe Daniel Day-Lewis's first win, but even then, he had been in a Best Picture winner, had won some critical heft in the mid-'80s, and was a big stage draw. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 23, 2024 14:29:40 GMT
So you were good predicting Butler to win for Elvis but not Chalamet for Dylan? was 32. He'd have been a young Best Actor winner, but not the youngest in history. There have been quite a few winners in their 30's. Almost none in their 20's. And crucially, as far as most of the industry was concerned, Butler was an unknown. He was not an established leading man that had everything like Chalamet. He was a fresh guy that came out of nowhere, so people haven't had time to build up resentments at his career. Now Butler would have more of an issue winning, because he's the new Hollywood Golden Boy. But he wasn't with Elvis.Even with all of that, and being win competitive, Butler still lost to an older, former "Stud" in Brendan Fraser. So maybe it still went against him, even though I thought he might have a shot as a fresh face to win on merit. Out of nowhere? But I thought Denzel discovered him?? |
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Post by finniussnrub on Aug 23, 2024 14:32:36 GMT
Having seen Sing Sing, I wouldn't say Domingo is a slam dunk type performance that is just going to run away with everything (not speaking towards quality just the type of thing the Academy often goes for). He could do well with the critics, as long as no one else steals that potential thunder from the fall festivals, but even that type of support can be meaningless in the end (Just ask Charles Melton). A24's limp rollout of the film also does paint some doubt on how hard they're going to push him in the end, and where they're going to find some avenue for a resurgence.
What does help him though is there isn't any presumptive frontrunner yet so he doesn't need someone else to derail to find momentum.
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Post by Joaquim on Aug 23, 2024 14:33:35 GMT
Congrats to Timmy on the Oscar I guess
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Aug 23, 2024 14:33:47 GMT
Colman Domingo is going to get it this round, mark my words!! ..? The film came out quite early and is flopping at the box office. It is sadly not catching on, despite great reviews and audience response. Honestly I don’t think box office matters much. All they have to do is get it in front of voters. It will have been streaming for months by then. I don’t really care how much something is “catching on” in August. |
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2024 14:37:21 GMT
Having seen Sing Sing, I wouldn't say Domingo is a slam dunk type performance that is just going to run away with everything (not speaking towards quality just the type of thing the Academy often goes for). He could do well with the critics, as long as no one else steals that potential thunder from the fall festivals, but even that type of support can be meaningless in the end (Just ask Charles Melton). A24's limp rollout of the film also does paint some doubt on how hard they're going to push him in the end, and where they're going to find some avenue for a resurgence.
What does help him though is there isn't any presumptive frontrunner yet so he doesn't need someone else to derail to find momentum. Daniel Craig? I mean, it's entirely sight unseen right now but I have to think that he's the de facto frontrunner, given the material, the director, his stature in the industry (he absolutely could have his Robert Downey, Jr. moment from being the franchise workhorse who switches back to "serious acting"), and he's in play for the Volpi. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 23, 2024 14:43:19 GMT
Butler was 32. He'd have been a young Best Actor winner, but not the youngest in history. There have been quite a few winners in their 30's. Almost none in their 20's. And crucially, as far as most of the industry was concerned, Butler was an unknown. He was not an established leading man that had everything like Chalamet. He was a fresh guy that came out of nowhere, so people haven't had time to build up resentments at his career. Now Butler would have more of an issue winning, because he's the new Hollywood Golden Boy. But he wasn't with Elvis.Even with all of that, and being win competitive, Butler still lost to an older, former "Stud" in Brendan Fraser. So maybe it still went against him, even though I thought he might have a shot as a fresh face to win on merit. I don't know if I quite agree with this line of thinking. I think if Austin Butler is a prior nominee before Elvis, he conceivably gets further and might even win because of audience and voter familiarity. Yeah, his youth works against him but that year was extremely atypical in that they were all first-time nominees and it was a rather messy year with no real frontrunner momentum. Farrell was the critics' favourite, Butler won Globe and BAFTA, Fraser the SAG and the Oscar. If Butler had a Call Me By Your Name under his belt by then, I think that would've juiced him to the win the way we've seen it pan out for Best Actress ingenues like Natalie Portman and Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone. It's rare for it to happen in Best Actor for someone so young, but it's even rarer for someone who is almost entirely an unknown to win a leading Oscar anyway. I mean, I can't think of a time when it has happened. The closest is maybe Daniel Day-Lewis's first win, but even then, he had been in a Best Picture winner, had won some critical heft in the mid-'80s, and was a big stage draw. Would you count Geoffrey Rush & Jean Dujardin as "unknown", as they weren't really known in Hollywood, even though they had careers in their native countries ( like Day-Lewis)? |
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2024 14:51:52 GMT
I don't know if I quite agree with this line of thinking. I think if Austin Butler is a prior nominee before Elvis, he conceivably gets further and might even win because of audience and voter familiarity. Yeah, his youth works against him but that year was extremely atypical in that they were all first-time nominees and it was a rather messy year with no real frontrunner momentum. Farrell was the critics' favourite, Butler won Globe and BAFTA, Fraser the SAG and the Oscar. If Butler had a Call Me By Your Name under his belt by then, I think that would've juiced him to the win the way we've seen it pan out for Best Actress ingenues like Natalie Portman and Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone. It's rare for it to happen in Best Actor for someone so young, but it's even rarer for someone who is almost entirely an unknown to win a leading Oscar anyway. I mean, I can't think of a time when it has happened. The closest is maybe Daniel Day-Lewis's first win, but even then, he had been in a Best Picture winner, had won some critical heft in the mid-'80s, and was a big stage draw. Would you count Geoffrey Rush & Jean Dujardin as "unknown", as they weren't really known in Hollywood, even though they had careers in their native countries ( like Day-Lewis)?Emphasis on "young" (because Rush was an established stage actor in his mid-40s when he won, and Jean Dujardin was well-known and celebrated in France in the ultimate Best Picture winner that year, and he was 39 when he won), but when I say "unknown," I mean that they have almost no footprint regardless of their country of origin. Austin Butler at the time of Elvis had a minor role in a Tarantino film and was in a smattering of other things, but for all intents and purposes, he was as unknown to general audiences as Jennifer Lawrence was when she did Winter's Bone. And to that point, I don't think Lawrence wins the Oscar two years later if she doesn't have that first nomination under her belt already. I think if you're that young, regardless if you're in Best Actor or Actress, rule of thumb is you don't win your first time out because you have to prove it isn't a fluke. You get that second nomination (especially if it's in a stronger film), your winner chances go up massively (re: Lawrence, Stone). It doesn't happen a lot in Best Actor though because by and large, winners skew older. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Aug 23, 2024 15:05:34 GMT
Having seen Sing Sing, I wouldn't say Domingo is a slam dunk type performance that is just going to run away with everything (not speaking towards quality just the type of thing the Academy often goes for). He could do well with the critics, as long as no one else steals that potential thunder from the fall festivals, but even that type of support can be meaningless in the end (Just ask Charles Melton). A24's limp rollout of the film also does paint some doubt on how hard they're going to push him in the end, and where they're going to find some avenue for a resurgence.
What does help him though is there isn't any presumptive frontrunner yet so he doesn't need someone else to derail to find momentum. Daniel Craig? I mean, it's entirely sight unseen right now but I have to think that he's the de facto frontrunner, given the material, the director, his stature in the industry (he absolutely could have his Robert Downey, Jr. moment from being the franchise workhorse who switches back to "serious acting"), and he's in play for the Volpi. I don't think so, at least not in terms of a true defacto like DDL for Lincoln, Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, DiCaprio for The Revenant, Firth for The King's Speech. Where they were in the lead before their films were seen and then proceeded to go on to win without any fuss (in terms of the industry awards). Craig isn't seen as overdue for the win (given he's never been nominated unlike Downey), and Queer has certain question marks, like how explicit is it for example (voters aren't as keen on male nudity), and will it be a player given Guadagnino has only been embraced by the academy for Call Me By Your Name, which one could argue slightly performed below expectation even. He definitely is a decent bet, but I don't think he's anywhere close to a frontrunner akin to those I've previously mentioned. |
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2024 15:10:11 GMT
Daniel Craig? I mean, it's entirely sight unseen right now but I have to think that he's the de facto frontrunner, given the material, the director, his stature in the industry (he absolutely could have his Robert Downey, Jr. moment from being the franchise workhorse who switches back to "serious acting"), and he's in play for the Volpi. I don't think so, at least not in terms of a true defacto like DDL for Lincoln, Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, DiCaprio for The Revenant, Firth for The King's Speech. Where they were in the lead before their films were seen and then proceeded to go on to win without any fuss (in terms of the industry awards). Craig isn't seen as overdue for the win (given he's never been nominated unlike Downey), and Queer has certain question marks, like how explicit is it for example (voters aren't as keen on male nudity), and will it be a player given Guadagnino has only been embraced by the academy for Call Me By Your Name, which one could argue slightly performed below expectation even. He definitely is a decent bet, but I don't think he's anywhere close to a frontrunner akin to those I've previously mentioned. I guess it comes down to how one describes "presumptive frontrunner." Not every year has a clock-cleaner like Day-Lewis or Firth. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Aug 23, 2024 15:21:37 GMT
I don't think so, at least not in terms of a true defacto like DDL for Lincoln, Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, DiCaprio for The Revenant, Firth for The King's Speech. Where they were in the lead before their films were seen and then proceeded to go on to win without any fuss (in terms of the industry awards). Craig isn't seen as overdue for the win (given he's never been nominated unlike Downey), and Queer has certain question marks, like how explicit is it for example (voters aren't as keen on male nudity), and will it be a player given Guadagnino has only been embraced by the academy for Call Me By Your Name, which one could argue slightly performed below expectation even. He definitely is a decent bet, but I don't think he's anywhere close to a frontrunner akin to those I've previously mentioned. I guess it comes down to how one describes "presumptive frontrunner." Not every year has a clock-cleaner like Day-Lewis or Firth. I mean I think you can say not every year has a true "presumptive frontrunner" which is when the "frontrunner" is widely debated at this point. As if you look at the so called "experts" at goldderby right now, some have Domingo, some have Chalamet, some have Fiennes, none have Craig, which doesn't influence my view of his chances, but does show that there isn't a single person the vast majority are saying "all signs point to him winning right now", which to me makes someone a true presumptive frontrunner. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Aug 23, 2024 15:24:08 GMT
Craig still feels like a Cumberbatch situation to me.
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Post by stephen on Aug 23, 2024 15:38:30 GMT
Craig still feels like a Cumberbatch situation to me. is an anomaly unto itself. That was a movie barreling the entire season towards maximizing nominations and wins, with Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee cleaning house at the early stages, but then passion for the movie just failed to sustain, and I genuinely think a lot of it came down to Netflix fatigue more than anything else. Plus it being the first post-COVID season didn't help matters; people were looking for a feel-good movie and performances, which they found with CODA and King Richard. I just don't see that being quite the case this year. Sure, Craig could be a pipe dream right now but the thing is, Domingo has already been seen and while he's very well-liked, I just am not getting "yeah, there's our winner" vibes yet. He would need a hugely fractured race and (most importantly) a resurgence for his film on the back end at the right time. Which could happen for sure, but I'd feel a lot more confident if Sing Sing had run the festival circuit this year rather than last year. |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Aug 23, 2024 19:21:37 GMT
Yeah I agree with Stephen.. I think voter familiarity as well as how accomplished he is can offset some of the obvious youth/stud bias he’ll face. It’s shaping up to be a weak-ish year, and A24 has botched the Sing Sing campaign, to the point where it is hurting his frontrunner position.
A Complete Unknown can also be a holiday hit.. James Mangold has proven to be more than capable of crafting a crowd friendly, acclaimed biopic.
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