dazed
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Post by dazed on Jan 20, 2023 5:55:57 GMT
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 20, 2023 5:59:30 GMT
Did they do away with that bizarre jury system? These nominations seem... normal. It's still the weird jury system, they're just already deciding to conform more.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 20, 2023 6:10:38 GMT
Sill waiting on the Top Gun faithful to chime in. Well I’d make the argument that BAFTA is irreverent for Top Gun. It needs to win PGA. So you'd honestly predict Top Gun to win BP just off the back of winning PGA?? Even though it got completely blanked at SAG, didn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom, and will all the more likely get Picture above the line and that's it. Good luck. It clearly doesn't have the international support, or support from actors. I presume you STILL don't have EEAAO in your Top 2??
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 20, 2023 6:33:15 GMT
Well I’d make the argument that BAFTA is irreverent for Top Gun. It needs to win PGA. So you'd honestly predict Top Gun to win BP just off the back of winning PGA?? Even though it got completely blanked at SAG, didn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom, and will all the more likely get Picture above the line and that's it. Good luck. It clearly doesn't have the international support, or support from actors. I presume you STILL don't have EEAAO in your Top 2?? "Just" winning PGA is nothing to sneeze at. In the last decade, PGA only incorrectly predicted the BP winner 3 times, and in each of those cases, the PGA winners lost to films that were designed to perform extremely well on the preferential ballot, and I just don't think Top Gun's competition is nearly as preferential ballot-friendly as the winners from this past decade. I don't think Top Gun will be like The Big Short because there isn't anything like Spotlight that seemed like an obvious preferential ballot winner in retrospect. Top Gun also won't have the backlash of La La Land. Top Gun got blanked at SAG, but I'd say it's possible for people to be passionate about the movie without necessarily thinking it deserves acting noms. Finally, despite its miss at BAFTA, I still think an Adapted Screenplay nom is possible at AMPAS.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 20, 2023 13:30:08 GMT
Well I’d make the argument that BAFTA is irreverent for Top Gun. It needs to win PGA. So you'd honestly predict Top Gun to win BP just off the back of winning PGA?? Even though it got completely blanked at SAG, didn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom, and will all the more likely get Picture above the line and that's it. Good luck. It clearly doesn't have the international support, or support from actors. I presume you STILL don't have EEAAO in your Top 2?? I’m saying that if Top Gun won it’d be off of PGA and that BAFTA doesn’t matter for it. Not saying I’m predicting TGM to win currently, but if it wins PGA I’d have to reconsider. I have EEAAO in my top 2 along with Banshees.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 20, 2023 14:28:32 GMT
Well I’d make the argument that BAFTA is irreverent for Top Gun. It needs to win PGA. So you'd honestly predict Top Gun to win BP just off the back of winning PGA?? Even though it got completely blanked at SAG, didn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom, and will all the more likely get Picture above the line and that's it. Good luck. It clearly doesn't have the international support, or support from actors. I presume you STILL don't have EEAAO in your Top 2?? Yeah, I'm not saying it's impossible - this is a split year - anything I guess could happen - but it's bucking so many trends for people to continue to pick this ..........I'm way on board with this now than I was a few months ago but even now and even if it wins PGA .......I can't bring myself to connect the dots to an actual win........ It would be quite a jolt if it won though - the mainstream media would be writing for a movie that people actually saw and enjoyed........just like when the Oscars mattered........
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 20, 2023 16:05:18 GMT
So you'd honestly predict Top Gun to win BP just off the back of winning PGA?? Even though it got completely blanked at SAG, didn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom, and will all the more likely get Picture above the line and that's it. Good luck. It clearly doesn't have the international support, or support from actors. I presume you STILL don't have EEAAO in your Top 2?? I’m saying that if Top Gun won it’d be off of PGA and that BAFTA doesn’t matter for it. Not saying I’m predicting TGM to win currently, but if it wins PGA I’d have to reconsider. I have EEAAO in my top 2 along with Banshees. What if it doesn't win PGA (which I don't think it will)? What happens then?
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 20, 2023 16:28:53 GMT
I’m saying that if Top Gun won it’d be off of PGA and that BAFTA doesn’t matter for it. Not saying I’m predicting TGM to win currently, but if it wins PGA I’d have to reconsider. I have EEAAO in my top 2 along with Banshees. What if it doesn't win PGA (which I don't think it will)? What happens then? Then I don’t think it has a remaining path to win BP
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 20, 2023 17:13:12 GMT
I don’t really get the “It’s path is through the PGA” argument because that’s true for pretty much any movie. You win that you are in contention. Not sure why that means more to Maverick than any other film.
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Post by stephen on Jan 20, 2023 17:17:09 GMT
I don’t really get the “It’s path is through the PGA” argument because that’s true for pretty much any movie. You win that you are in contention. Not sure why that means more to Maverick than any other film. Yeah, I think its path isn't just through PGA. It needs PGA and an overperformance with Oscar nominations, especially above-the-line. If it gets Director or Actor nominations, then I'd say it's still alive. But if on Tuesday it only musters a Picture nod and a few techs, I can't in good conscience say it makes a more feasible winner than Banshees or Everything Everywhere, which I think are comfortably the top two right now.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 20, 2023 17:22:41 GMT
I don’t really get the “It’s path is through the PGA” argument because that’s true for pretty much any movie. You win that you are in contention. Not sure why that means more to Maverick than any other film. Yeah, I think its path isn't just through PGA. It needs PGA and an overperformance with Oscar nominations, especially above-the-line. If it gets Director or Actor nominations, then I'd say it's still alive. But if on Tuesday it only musters a Picture nod and a few techs, I can't in good conscience say it makes a more feasible winner than Banshees or Everything Everywhere, which I think are comfortably the top two right now. If that happens on nomination morning and Tar and Fablemans get what they are expected to get I think Top Gun isn’t even top 4. Screenplay and acting are HUGE to a films chances since the start of the preferential ballot.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 20, 2023 19:00:45 GMT
Did they do away with that bizarre jury system? These nominations seem... normal. They pulled back on it a bit. The acting categories are now 3 normal vote, 3 jury. Director is 2 normal vote, the rest jury. Although I'll say the jury seemed to be less intent on the "shake up" this time, since director was way more straightforward than it had to be in terms of who was on the longlist.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 20, 2023 19:12:48 GMT
I don’t really get the “It’s path is through the PGA” argument because that’s true for pretty much any movie. You win that you are in contention. Not sure why that means more to Maverick than any other film. Who is saying otherwise?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 20, 2023 19:19:43 GMT
I don’t really get the “It’s path is through the PGA” argument because that’s true for pretty much any movie. You win that you are in contention. Not sure why that means more to Maverick than any other film. Who is saying otherwise? Since it seems to be the only argument I’ve seen for people to predict it to win (not just saying that it could win that way but actually using this reasoning to predicting it) makes me think that they believe very strongly this will happen.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 20, 2023 20:34:50 GMT
Since it seems to be the only argument I’ve seen for people to predict it to win (not just saying that it could win that way but actually using this reasoning to predicting it) makes me think that they believe very strongly this will happen. I guess I’m still confused as to what the issue is?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 20, 2023 20:43:51 GMT
Since it seems to be the only argument I’ve seen for people to predict it to win (not just saying that it could win that way but actually using this reasoning to predicting it) makes me think that they believe very strongly this will happen. I guess I’m still confused as to what the issue is? If your reasoning for predicting it is “I believe it is winning PGA” I get that. It’s just been a bit unclear in your wording.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 20, 2023 20:50:46 GMT
I guess I’m still confused as to what the issue is? If your reasoning for predicting it is “I believe it is winning PGA” I get that. It’s just been a bit unclear in your wording. I’m not predicting it to win BP. Other who are I would certainly assume believe it will win PGA and probably Adapted Screenplay. I was just pointing out that I still think it has a path to win BP, which would be my previous sentence. More in response to those thinking it has zero path to winning.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 20, 2023 20:53:07 GMT
If your reasoning for predicting it is “I believe it is winning PGA” I get that. It’s just been a bit unclear in your wording. I’m not predicting it to win BP. Other who are I would certainly assume believe it will win PGA and probably Adapted Screenplay. I was just pointing out that I still think it has a path to win BP, which would be my previous sentence. More in response to those thinking it has zero path to winning. Oh I agree it has a path to win. Before the PGA or Oscar announcements theoretically I think a lot of films still have a path. I mean if Coda can...
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 20, 2023 22:51:54 GMT
So you'd honestly predict Top Gun to win BP just off the back of winning PGA?? Even though it got completely blanked at SAG, didn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom, and will all the more likely get Picture above the line and that's it. Good luck. It clearly doesn't have the international support, or support from actors. I presume you STILL don't have EEAAO in your Top 2?? I’m saying that if Top Gun won it’d be off of PGA and that BAFTA doesn’t matter for it. Not saying I’m predicting TGM to win currently, but if it wins PGA I’d have to reconsider. I have EEAAO in my top 2 along with Banshees. Ayyyy, progress. Nomadland all over again.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 20, 2023 22:56:59 GMT
I'm also still yet to see anyone explain why having absolutely zero BAFTA support (atl) suddenly doesn't matter. Like just missing BAFTA Best Film isn't that big of a deal, CODA missed last year. But to not get a single nom in any above the line category just shows minimal to no international support. CODA won and acting award and screenplay there, I'm not sure there's ever been a year where the eventual BP winner couldn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom. Some of y'all are acting like Top Gun is this unprecedented behemoth that can buck every trend and stat in its way, but it just ain't that film.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 20, 2023 23:31:30 GMT
Some of y'all are acting like Top Gun is this unprecedented behemoth that can buck every trend and stat in its way, but it just ain't that film. I mean, we haven't had a non-Marvel, top 5 highest grossing movie of all time as a serious BP contender since the first Avatar, and it's a film that surpassed everyone's expectations both in terms of critical reception and box office. That sounds like an unprecedented behemoth to me (at least in the current era)... it remains to be seen whether or not it will buck the stats, but I don't think you can say for certain that this ain't the film to do it.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2023 23:45:32 GMT
was anyone seriously expecting Top Gun to get screenplay, directing or acting nods from BAFTA.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 20, 2023 23:59:17 GMT
Also, saying that it has no international support feels like overstating things considering Cruise and its screenplay still made the BAFTA shortlists. Aftersun also flopped at BAFTA, so Paul Mescal is obviously a jury pick and I think there's a small, outside chance Cruise can still make it in at AMPAS even with no precursors. Plus, both Women Talking and Glass Onion missed screenplay at BAFTA, and those were presumed to be the two biggest threats in that category, so I wouldn't automatically assume that The Quiet Girl gets replaced by either of those at the Oscars.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 21, 2023 0:58:38 GMT
Also, saying that it has no international support feels like overstating things considering Cruise and its screenplay still made the BAFTA shortlists. Aftersun also flopped at BAFTA, so Paul Mescal is obviously a jury pick and I think there's a small, outside chance Cruise can still make it in at AMPAS even with no precursors. Plus, both Women Talking and Glass Onion missed screenplay at BAFTA, and those were presumed to be the two biggest threats in that category, so I wouldn't automatically assume that The Quiet Girl gets replaced by either of those at the Oscars. Wait Cruise and the screenplay made a list of 10, a number that gets cut in half come Oscar time?? Very impressive. Even if you take out Women Talking and Glass Onion (which is silly, especially for Women Talking), both The Whale and AQOTWF have higher win equity than Top Gun in Screenplay. EDIT: Also Living, considering it will actually have an acting nomination attached, and has a good shot at winning BAFTA.
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wonky
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Post by wonky on Jan 21, 2023 0:59:04 GMT
I'm not sure there's ever been a year where the eventual BP winner couldn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom. Lol I had to look it up, the only modern BP winner (post-2001 when the ceremony moved to before the Oscars) that blanked at BAFTA was Million Dollar Baby, which was eligible but barely, and very little seen. www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/features/bafta-s-accidental-snub-14819.htmlGoing back, it becomes way less relevant because the BAFTAs were after the Oscars and half the time movies would contend the year following because UK release eligibility differed much more drastically, but just for the trivia, the last BP winner to be snubbed above-the-line (and altogether) was The Sting. Which incidentally was a star-driven, gargantuan box-office success heavy on Americana I do kinda think if Top Gun had the goods to win, they would have at least thrown it a Director nod.
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