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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 21, 2023 1:09:01 GMT
I'm not sure there's ever been a year where the eventual BP winner couldn't get a single above the line BAFTA nom. Lol I had to look it up, the only modern BP winner (post-2001 when the ceremony moved to before the Oscars) that blanked at BAFTA was Million Dollar Baby, which was eligible but barely, and very little seen. www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/features/bafta-s-accidental-snub-14819.htmlGoing back, it becomes way less relevant because the BAFTAs were after the Oscars and half the time movies would contend the year following because UK release eligibility differed much more drastically, but just for the trivia, the last BP winner to be snubbed above-the-line (and altogether) was The Sting. Which incidentally was a star-driven, gargantuan box-office success heavy on Americana I do kinda think if Top Gun had the goods to win, they would have at least thrown it a Director nod. Thanks for the info
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 21, 2023 3:10:02 GMT
Also, saying that it has no international support feels like overstating things considering Cruise and its screenplay still made the BAFTA shortlists. Aftersun also flopped at BAFTA, so Paul Mescal is obviously a jury pick and I think there's a small, outside chance Cruise can still make it in at AMPAS even with no precursors. Plus, both Women Talking and Glass Onion missed screenplay at BAFTA, and those were presumed to be the two biggest threats in that category, so I wouldn't automatically assume that The Quiet Girl gets replaced by either of those at the Oscars. Even if you take out Women Talking and Glass Onion ( which is silly, especially for Women Talking), both The Whale and AQOTWF have higher win equity than Top Gun in Screenplay. Not really considering that movie seems deader than disco. Don't really buy The Whale as a screenplay winner either... I could maybe see AQOTWF, but we've seen instances of films doing well at BAFTA but flopping at the Oscars before...
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 21, 2023 3:18:21 GMT
Also, regarding the lack of a director nom at BAFTA, you could make the argument that Kosinski hasn't been getting more attention because of the open secret that Cruise was really the directorial force behind the movie...
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 21, 2023 4:24:46 GMT
Even if you take out Women Talking and Glass Onion ( which is silly, especially for Women Talking), both The Whale and AQOTWF have higher win equity than Top Gun in Screenplay. Not really considering that movie seems deader than disco. Don't really buy The Whale as a screenplay winner either... I could maybe see AQOTWF, but we've seen instances of films doing well at BAFTA but flopping at the Oscars before... Wait, so are you actually predicting Top Gun for Adapted Screenplay??
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 21, 2023 4:25:32 GMT
Also, regarding the lack of a director nom at BAFTA, you could make the argument that Kosinski hasn't been getting more attention because of the open secret that Cruise was really the directorial force behind the movie... I would be truly shocked if that any barring on that matter.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 21, 2023 4:33:42 GMT
Not really considering that movie seems deader than disco. Don't really buy The Whale as a screenplay winner either... I could maybe see AQOTWF, but we've seen instances of films doing well at BAFTA but flopping at the Oscars before... Wait, so are you actually predicting Top Gun for Adapted Screenplay?? I haven't quite decided yet since the category is a mess, but for now I'll go out on a limb and say yes. I've always thought its biggest hurdle was getting the nomination, but if nominated I think it would win.
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wonky
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Post by wonky on Jan 21, 2023 4:42:39 GMT
Wouldn't that be more American gossip and if so why did he make DGA?
Everyone knows Cruise is a hands-on producer but I've never heard any real rumors discrediting Kosinski. Googling gives me nothing. The Mummy was the one I remember everyone talking about Cruise taking over.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 21, 2023 4:58:09 GMT
Well I'm not suggesting that it's something that would necessarily affect how everyone across different organizations would vote (DGA is said to be more "bro-y" in taste so they might have just loved the film enough to ignore the gossip), just that it's a possible factor contributing to Kosinski not getting more attention in general. Not sure why the gossip woud be strictly limited to America(?)
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 21, 2023 6:41:37 GMT
Wait, so are you actually predicting Top Gun for Adapted Screenplay?? I haven't quite decided yet since the category is a mess, but for now I'll go out on a limb and say yes. I've always thought its biggest hurdle was getting the nomination, but if nominated I think it would win.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 21, 2023 6:54:41 GMT
I haven't quite decided yet since the category is a mess, but for now I'll go out on a limb and say yes. I've always thought its biggest hurdle was getting the nomination, but if nominated I think it would win. How did I know this gif would be the response lol I won't be surprised if it doesn't make it in, at which point I'll just say fuck it and still stick with Top Gun as my NGNG BP winner prediction. If it loses PGA, I'll drop it.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 21, 2023 6:57:16 GMT
How did I know this gif would be the response lol I won't be surprised if it doesn't make it in, at which point I'll just say fuck it and still stick with Top Gun as my NGNG BP winner prediction. If it loses PGA, I'll drop it. Whenever I say good luck in my head, it just turns into Lucius Fox being a smart ass
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Post by Joaquim on Jan 23, 2023 0:50:02 GMT
How did I miss these nominations until now? ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT HYPE TRAIN NOT STOPPING
BAFTAs are GOATed for nominating Schuch. Give that man the win
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