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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 12, 2022 18:31:11 GMT
I hope it's Dinklage. The problem though is that his movie isn't really doing well right now. Dinklage has always felt something of a pipe dream, and when Cyrano missed out on Oscar shortlist categories it should by rights have made, that doubt only grew. I am not 100% sold on Bardem unless he makes BAFTA; I think DiCaprio winds up snatching that fifth spot by the end. To be fair Cyrano hasn't gotten a wide release yet so there is a chance for last minute momentum. Also it helps that all the "fifth" spot contenders seem weak. DiCaprio by all accounts should've gotten in here with that ensemble nod. Like Lindo last year that's not a good sign. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2022 18:31:24 GMT
Neither performance is good enough for the Oscar so it's not like we're talking about undeniable actresses here. I don't think Kidman's second is inevitable, though she's much stronger than I thought. I'm just curious to see what happens if Gaga wins SAG with Colman getting BAFTA. At this point though, Kidman (15 time SAG nominee, Golden Globe Best Actress winner playing legendary actress Lucille Ball) has to be favored to win SAG. Someone else might snatch it, but I guess right now she has to be the frontrunner. Right now I'd say it's her and Gaga pretty well even going into it. Kidman is a general favorite with them and the role is catnip for them (and her Globe win gives her some luster, whatever that may be worth), but Gaga's film did very well (here and at the B.O.) and she clearly wants it. I also do think Chastain could mount a comeback (arguably the showiest transformation of the five) and Colman could potentially surge here (multi-nominated actress who has never won an individual SAG). I wouldn't even say Hudson is 100% out of it, either. This is a category that could conceivably go any of five different ways, at least right now. But yeah, I'd have Kidman and Gaga ahead of the rest of the pack, and if I had to pick one over the other, I'd say Kidman is ahead "by a nose" . . . but I think Gucci has a lot of upside people have been overlooking. |
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Jan 12, 2022 18:33:21 GMT
Ew
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jan 12, 2022 18:40:15 GMT
Pure chaos lmaoooo
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 12, 2022 18:44:36 GMT
At this point though, Kidman (15 time SAG nominee, Golden Globe Best Actress winner playing legendary actress Lucille Ball) has to be favored to win SAG. Someone else might snatch it, but I guess right now she has to be the frontrunner. Right now I'd say it's her and Gaga pretty well even going into it. Kidman is a general favorite with them and the role is catnip for them (and her Globe win gives her some luster, whatever that may be worth), but Gaga's film did very well (here and at the B.O.) and she clearly wants it. I also do think Chastain could mount a comeback (arguably the showiest transformation of the five) and Colman could potentially surge here (multi-nominated actress who has never won an individual SAG). I wouldn't even say Hudson is 100% out of it, either. This is a category that could conceivably go any of five different ways, at least right now. But yeah, I'd have Kidman and Gaga ahead of the rest of the pack, and if I had to pick one over the other, I'd say Kidman is ahead "by a nose" . . . but I think Gucci has a lot of upside people have been overlooking. I don't think it's that open but I think we might be in for a surprise (probably Chastain). I just want Gaga to win SAG to keep it all open until Oscar night comes. If Kidman wins SAG, then yes, I'd think her win would be almost inevitable. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 12, 2022 19:00:22 GMT
Maybe it's just me, but either one of the actor categories has potential for a random Lakeith Stansfield style of nomination You mean like Fran ending up in supporting? Not necessarily a category change, just an out of nowhere nominee no one is predicting. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 12, 2022 19:02:55 GMT
Will SAG follow suit and give Kodi Smit-McPhee the win, cementing his frontrunner status, or do we see Kotsur or even Leto/Cooper suddenly crash the party here? House of Gucci did very well here and he is giving THE MOST acting of the category (give or take a Bradley Cooper). And Cooper is still something of an unknown variant here. Oh, I do think Smit-McPhee is the frontrunner - especially if this is the one category (beyond possibly Director) where they can honor the film. I'm wondering though if the major headline is that Stewart was snubbed, does that ironically benefit her in the end with Oscar voters? Power of the Dog is at this point a big contender in every category, if he wins it won't be a consolation award. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 12, 2022 19:09:48 GMT
Isn't there some weird stat that says that at least one person with both globe and sag gets snubbed?
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 12, 2022 19:15:30 GMT
Tbh a competitive Kidman vs. Gaga race would be pretty cool - I mean I loved Gaga's performance and wouldn't nod Kidman for BtR (I liked the effort though) but talk about performances that had to overcome a lot of sh it - not just Kidman but she was dead in the water so that's quite a turn - Gaga has singlehandedly put her picture into possibly being the only actress contender with a BP nominee to go along with it .....
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Post by iheartamyadams on Jan 12, 2022 19:24:55 GMT
My only thing with Kidman is that I don’t know why it didn’t make ensemble. Not a must necessarily, but an accessible film about the industry with two acting noms should make it most years. Trumbo did FWIW.
Gucci is now probably stronger in the BP race, and a PGA nom would probably solidify that. It also did better at the BAFTA long lists, so I think a Gaga upset is a very real possibility here.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2022 19:32:11 GMT
Gaga vs Kidman is going to lead to some batshit crazy Stan wars.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Jan 12, 2022 19:41:37 GMT
Another thing is that it has to be pretty rare for a contender in a biopic to win without a hair & makeup nom..? BtR didn’t make the Oscar shortlist. Also zero critic award wins. The last time something like this happened was Bullock in The Blind Side, but that being a cultural phenomenon and BP nominee definitely helped.
I would definitely say that Kidman is the frontrunner, but something doesn’t feel right about her actually winning to me. I can’t pinpoint it, but I’ll continue to be skeptical unless the film starts gaining BP traction.
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2022 19:46:59 GMT
Another thing is that it has to be pretty rare for a contender in a biopic to win without a hair & makeup nom..? BtR didn’t make the Oscar shortlist. Also zero critic award wins. The last time something like this happened was Bullock in The Blind Side, but that being a cultural phenomenon and BP nominee definitely helped. I would definitely say that Kidman is the frontrunner, but something doesn’t feel right about her actually winning to me. I can’t pinpoint it, but I’ll continue to be skeptical unless the film starts gaining BP traction. I'd feel a lot more confident in Kidman if she could bring Bardem and the film along with her. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 12, 2022 19:52:20 GMT
LOL!
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 12, 2022 20:02:53 GMT
Will SAG follow suit and give Kodi Smit-McPhee the win, cementing his frontrunner status, or do we see Kotsur or even Leto/Cooper suddenly crash the party here? House of Gucci did very well here and he is giving THE MOST acting of the category (give or take a Bradley Cooper). And Cooper is still something of an unknown variant here. Oh, I do think Smit-McPhee is the frontrunner - especially if this is the one category (beyond possibly Director) where they can honor the film. I'm wondering though if the major headline is that Stewart was snubbed, does that ironically benefit her in the end with Oscar voters? Nah. Final Oscar voting is a long way off - middle of Mar.
I see people thinking that this will be a Regina King (who was snubbed for SAG) win. The problem there was that the studio did not get out screeners for If Beale St Could Talk.
Keep in mind that Regina did win the Globe and there was really no serious competition in Supporting Actress. The SAG winner was Emily Blunt, who was not nominated for the Oscar.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 12, 2022 20:13:32 GMT
Right now I'd say it's her and Gaga pretty well even going into it. Kidman is a general favorite with them and the role is catnip for them (and her Globe win gives her some luster, whatever that may be worth), but Gaga's film did very well (here and at the B.O.) and she clearly wants it. I also do think Chastain could mount a comeback (arguably the showiest transformation of the five) and Colman could potentially surge here (multi-nominated actress who has never won an individual SAG). I wouldn't even say Hudson is 100% out of it, either. This is a category that could conceivably go any of five different ways, at least right now. But yeah, I'd have Kidman and Gaga ahead of the rest of the pack, and if I had to pick one over the other, I'd say Kidman is ahead "by a nose" . . . but I think Gucci has a lot of upside people have been overlooking. I don't think it's that open but I think we might be in for a surprise (probably Chastain). I just want Gaga to win SAG to keep it all open until Oscar night comes. If Kidman wins SAG, then yes, I'd think her win would be almost inevitable. This is the Screen Actors Guild. They are more apt to go with a veteran like Kidman, considering she has never won SAG for Film. But she has for TV, so will she have voters there as well. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 12, 2022 21:17:23 GMT
All I know is that this shaping to be a very weird race, there's no frontrunner strong enough that I can't see it losing at this point.
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Post by cheesecake on Jan 12, 2022 21:22:19 GMT
I haven't been keeping up with Oscar season, but I love that Cooper nod so much.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 12, 2022 21:45:44 GMT
I'm definitely not doubting the nom anymore, just think Kidman, Gaga and Colman all have a much higher chance of winning considering they have the stronger films and have already proven support with other wins (Globe, NYFCC, Gotham). Gaga and/or Kidman will have a BP nom and Colman will have Screenplay, plus Gaga might be dragging along Leto. Chastain has to compete with Kidman who has the same kind of performance, make-up heavy biopic in a film that didn't get that good reviews, and the momentum is with Nicole. You're fully delusional about this  You've got this Film Twitter/AwardsWorthy Forums hive mind mentality where you can't stand being wrong about anything. Kidman was always going to play extremely well with actors and the industry, something a lot of you types on Twitter or AwardsWorthy were not astute enough to recognise in efforts to trash Kidman to keep K-Stew the "unbeatable frontrunner " because she won a bunch of regional critics awards which will ultimately prove meaningless. What are you on about?? I fully admitted that Stewart isn't winning anymore and that it's between Kidman, Colman and Gaga. What more do you want?? Do you need us all to get on our knees and beg your forgiveness for having incorrect predictions?? Also never once have I trashed Kidman, so good to see that you extend your victim mentality to your faves as well. |
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 13, 2022 0:40:36 GMT
Mind blown. Gotta watch Tender Bar now. It's on Amazon Prime for those who don't know.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 13, 2022 2:36:19 GMT
Stewart was one of those snubs so shocking you don’t realize they happened for a while. I didn’t notice until I went on Twitter after.
This happened to me with Affleck for Argo and Hanks for Captain Phillips too.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 13, 2022 3:03:06 GMT
You mean like Fran ending up in supporting? Not necessarily a category change, just an out of nowhere nominee no one is predicting. I think so too especially the men’s side. I’m not confident that it’s going to be the SAG 5, and DiCaprio and Dinklage both seem they have too many cons now. Maybe Rex or Nishijima can surprise. I feel like the Oscars love to throw some curveballs, and they’ve been a lot more highbrow lately than BAFTA and SAG. My only thing with Kidman is that I don’t know why it didn’t make ensemble. Not a must necessarily, but an accessible film about the industry with two acting noms should make it most years. Trumbo did FWIW. Gucci is now probably stronger in the BP race, and a PGA nom would probably solidify that. It also did better at the BAFTA long lists, so I think a Gaga upset is a very real possibility here. Sorry about Stewart. Thank you for believing in Gaga. I felt the NYFCC win was going to be a fluke because the way she kept missing regionals, but as almost every poster says at least once during awards season, critics don’t equal the Industry. Stewart was one of those snubs so shocking you don’t realize they happened for a while. I didn’t notice until I went on Twitter after. This happened to me with Affleck for Argo and Hanks for Captain Phillips too. Yes, I had to take my car in early for service, and I got to see the BAFTA nominations right before I had to go to work, but every time I’d try to find time to get online it would be only for a minute or two. So it didn’t register that Stewart actually missed because I just assumed that she was in until later on. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 13, 2022 6:22:59 GMT
I think Kidman will probably take SAG pretty easily. The voters love her and her role and performance are SAG catnip. And then she's saying stuff like this, which voters will eat up (You honor me, you'll also honor Lucille Ball, so gimme my first Film SAG Award dammit! )
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 13, 2022 8:39:20 GMT
Nicky, I love you, but please spare us this Weinstein-style crap.
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Allenism
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Post by Allenism on Jan 13, 2022 14:19:51 GMT
Man these are awful.
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