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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 8, 2021 11:13:59 GMT
Balfe DeBose Dunst Ellis Moreno Same five as me at the moment. I’m still not discounting Meryl though and CODA’s strength at the moment could lead to a Matlin nomination as well. |
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Post by morton on Dec 8, 2021 14:14:09 GMT
Balfe DeBose Dunst Ellis Moreno I feel like Balfe, Dunst, and Ellis are our top 3; although that could change as the season goes along. I also have both DeBose and Moreno in now, but I think DeBose is slightly stronger. I’m just worried that Moreno will be another kind of Ellen Burstyn type of potential nomination where people, at least people like myself, think that her narrative will help her and then she ends up missing. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 8, 2021 16:01:30 GMT
My feeling is that if West Side Story does break in here, it'll only be for one spot. I feel the moment is more around Moreno at the moment, but I can see both getting in at SAG and then Moreno moves on to the Oscar nomination. But I'm cautiously still predicting my five here: Balfe, Dunst, Ellis, Negga and Streep. I don't think Don't Look Up's reviews are going to necessarily kill Streep's chances, but I think she's vulnerable right now.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 8, 2021 22:27:25 GMT
My feeling is that if West Side Story does break in here, it'll only be for one spot. I feel the moment is more around Moreno at the moment, but I can see both getting in at SAG and then Moreno moves on to the Oscar nomination. But I'm cautiously still predicting my five here: Balfe, Dunst, Ellis, Negga and Streep. I don't think Don't Look Up's reviews are going to necessarily kill Streep's chances, but I think she's vulnerable right now. Remember when we were talking about biases?  In all seriousness though, what do you think her path is? She just feels weaker and weaker as the season goes on. I know she showed up kind of out of nowhere for Loving, but this feels like an entirely different situation. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 8, 2021 22:49:46 GMT
My feeling is that if West Side Story does break in here, it'll only be for one spot. I feel the moment is more around Moreno at the moment, but I can see both getting in at SAG and then Moreno moves on to the Oscar nomination. But I'm cautiously still predicting my five here: Balfe, Dunst, Ellis, Negga and Streep. I don't think Don't Look Up's reviews are going to necessarily kill Streep's chances, but I think she's vulnerable right now. Remember when we were talking about biases? In all seriousness though, what do you think her path is? She just feels weaker and weaker as the season goes on. I know she showed up kind of out of nowhere for Loving, but this feels like an entirely different situation. First off, I never claimed I was without my biases. Second, Ruth Negga didn't "show up kind of out of nowhere" for Loving -- she was everywhere that year except for SAG and BAFTA. Pretty big misses, yeah, but she wasn't Marina de Tavira-ing it. People were quick to dismiss her because her film wasn't doing well outside of her, but she was always in contention. As for feeling weaker and weaker as the season goes on -- the season started, what, a week and a half ago? She's already gotten nominations at places like the Gothams, the Satellites, and the HCA. She missed wins at NBR and NYFCC, but so what? She has time to recover. Netflix has deep enough pockets that they can run her as well as Dunst and Streep, depending on how they want to prioritize them (and Negga benefits from being a prior nominee, so they know who she is). |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 11, 2021 19:20:01 GMT
as of 11/12
Catriona Balfe
Ariana DeBose (#1)
Kirsten Dunst
Aunjanue Ellis
Ruth Negga (#5)
next in line:
Marlee Matlin, Rita Moreno, Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Kathryn Hunter
I do think 1-3 are pretty much sown down between DeBose, Balfe and Ellis, and although Dunst feels weak to me personally she's going to benefit a lot from goodwill for her film so she feels reasonably safe. That fifth spot could go in any direction honestly. Streep because they love Streep, or Moreno/Dench/Hunter as possible coattail nods (a la de Tevira) if they really wanna go hard for those films. But for now I'm sticking with Negga.
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Post by michael128 on Dec 24, 2021 17:53:42 GMT
Jada Pinkett Smith should be sweeping tbh
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 25, 2021 1:50:30 GMT
Alright folks, here are my initial Best Supporting Actress predictions:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story - Globe and Critics Choice nominee, won LA
2. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard - Globe and Critics Choice nominee, won NBR
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast - Globe and Critics Choice nominee
4. Kristen Dunst, The Power of the Dog - Globe and Critics Choice nominee
5. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth - NY film critics winner
Ann Dowd, Ruth Negga, and Rita Morena are very much in play here. But the supporting roles tend to go for wild wild cards. Think Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart, Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook, Marina de Tavira for Roma, and even Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock. Just like de Tavira and Harden, Hunter is a veteran theater actress.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 25, 2021 3:35:07 GMT
Gyllenhaal, Weaver and de Tavira were all coat-tailing frontrunners in an above the line category, Hunter doesn't have that. Macbeth overall feels low-key weak.
I think we just end up with DeBose, Ellis, Dunst, Balfe and Negga.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 8, 2022 20:45:30 GMT
I’m not predicting it, but I could def see Balfe get snubbed.
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2022 21:01:55 GMT
Remember when we were talking about biases?  In all seriousness though, what do you think her path is? She just feels weaker and weaker as the season goes on. I know she showed up kind of out of nowhere for Loving, but this feels like an entirely different situation. First off, I never claimed I was without my biases. Second, Ruth Negga didn't "show up kind of out of nowhere" for Loving -- she was everywhere that year except for SAG and BAFTA. Pretty big misses, yeah, but she wasn't Marina de Tavira-ing it. People were quick to dismiss her because her film wasn't doing well outside of her, but she was always in contention. As for feeling weaker and weaker as the season goes on -- the season started, what, a week and a half ago? She's already gotten nominations at places like the Gothams, the Satellites, and the HCA. She missed wins at NBR and NYFCC, but so what? She has time to recover. Netflix has deep enough pockets that they can run her as well as Dunst and Streep, depending on how they want to prioritize them (and Negga benefits from being a prior nominee, so they know who she is). Come through with that NSFC win, Ruthie! She's not going down without a fight. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 8, 2022 21:32:50 GMT
I’m not predicting it, but I could def see Balfe get snubbed. She is definitely starting to feel the weakest out of the supposed 5. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 8, 2022 21:35:27 GMT
First off, I never claimed I was without my biases. Second, Ruth Negga didn't "show up kind of out of nowhere" for Loving -- she was everywhere that year except for SAG and BAFTA. Pretty big misses, yeah, but she wasn't Marina de Tavira-ing it. People were quick to dismiss her because her film wasn't doing well outside of her, but she was always in contention. As for feeling weaker and weaker as the season goes on -- the season started, what, a week and a half ago? She's already gotten nominations at places like the Gothams, the Satellites, and the HCA. She missed wins at NBR and NYFCC, but so what? She has time to recover. Netflix has deep enough pockets that they can run her as well as Dunst and Streep, depending on how they want to prioritize them (and Negga benefits from being a prior nominee, so they know who she is). Come through with that NSFC win, Ruthie! She's not going down without a fight. Huh, I don't even remember this discussion, looks very silly for me in hindsight. I'm trying to remember when I first started predicting Ruth, because I feel like it's been for a few weeks. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2022 21:39:20 GMT
Come through with that NSFC win, Ruthie! She's not going down without a fight. Huh, I don't even remember this discussion, looks very silly for me in hindsight. I'm trying to remember when I first started predicting Ruth, because I feel like it's been for a few weeks. Oh hell no, you ain't about to jump on that bandwagon now. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 9, 2022 3:21:01 GMT
Huh, I don't even remember this discussion, looks very silly for me in hindsight. I'm trying to remember when I first started predicting Ruth, because I feel like it's been for a few weeks. Oh hell no, you ain't about to jump on that bandwagon now. Haha, wouldn't exactly call it a bandwagon, pretty standard prediction at this point. But yes, you never lost faith. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2022 17:24:19 GMT
NSFC win and a SAG nomination?  |
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 12, 2022 18:23:39 GMT
I had been doubting Negga all season until that Globe nom. I think this SAG nom means that she’s pretty comfortably in that top five now.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 12, 2022 19:41:19 GMT
I had been doubting Negga all season until that Globe nom. I think this SAG nom means that she’s pretty comfortably in that top five now. Yeah, just like the Director race this seems suspiciously straightforward with DeBose, Balfe, Ellis, Negga and Dunst being the clear favorites. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 12, 2022 20:13:10 GMT
I had been doubting Negga all season until that Globe nom. I think this SAG nom means that she’s pretty comfortably in that top five now. Yeah, just like the Director race this seems suspiciously straightforward with DeBose, Balfe, Ellis, Negga and Dunst being the clear favorites. The Director race is straight forward before the DGA’s have been announced? |
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Post by JangoB on Jan 12, 2022 20:20:40 GMT
Yeah, just like the Director race this seems suspiciously straightforward with DeBose, Balfe, Ellis, Negga and Dunst being the clear favorites. The Director race is straight forward before the DGA’s have been announced? The key words are 'seems' and 'suspiciously'. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2022 20:34:27 GMT
Not gonna lie, Ellis should have gotten in here. SAG seems like the easiest get she should've had.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 12, 2022 23:24:47 GMT
Not gonna lie, Ellis should have gotten in here. SAG seems like the easiest get she should've had. She’s definitely vulnerable now. Buckley or Moreno getting in instead of her would not surprise me at the moment. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2022 16:03:20 GMT
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Post by mrimpossible on Jan 25, 2022 17:16:40 GMT
Not gonna lie, Ellis should have gotten in here. SAG seems like the easiest get she should've had. Same thing happened to Seyfried last year. What helped out Seyfried was that Mank was a BP nominee and King Richard will probably be as well. Nightmare Alley seems largely forgotten. |
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In all seriousness though, what do you think her path is? She just feels weaker and weaker as the season goes on. I know she showed up kind of out of nowhere for Loving, but this feels like an entirely different situation. 
In all seriousness though, what do you think her path is? She just feels weaker and weaker as the season goes on. I know she showed up kind of out of nowhere for Loving, but this feels like an entirely different situation. 
