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Post by bob-coppola on Apr 6, 2021 1:42:23 GMT
"On the other hand" (I misspelled, meant to say OTOH lol) jfc You owe me like $50 for how long I spent trying to decipher that  |
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Post by michael128 on Apr 6, 2021 1:44:58 GMT
jfc You owe me like $50 for how long I spent trying to decipher that i’m serious. i’m a professional accountant you bitch |
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Post by stephen on Apr 6, 2021 1:45:22 GMT
We really need to stop trying to make AACTA happen. It's not going to happen. Except they are a precursor that actually has industry crossover. They may not be as big as BAFTA, but they are starting to gain some traction in relevance. And they didn't have a weird-ass jury system this year. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2021 1:46:15 GMT
We really need to stop trying to make AACTA happen. It's not going to happen. Except they are a precursor that actually has industry crossover. They may not be as big as BAFTA, but they are starting to gain some traction in relevance. And they didn't have a weird-ass jury system this year. Are they televised at all? In the United States, I mean? |
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Post by bob-coppola on Apr 6, 2021 1:47:33 GMT
i’m serious. i’m a professional accountant you bitch Let's fight outside. Winner has to pay the other 100 dollars on paypal (doubled the money, a physical fight is dangerous in pandemic times). I'll DM you the address. Bitch. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 6, 2021 1:47:59 GMT
Nothing's coming to mind, but they might've done. But even so, BFCA's usual sensibilities of playing prognosticator by reading the tea leaves of other races backfired massively this year. Or they can surprisingly hit it right this year by predicting Mulligan in the most random fashion. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 6, 2021 1:50:54 GMT
Except they are a precursor that actually has industry crossover. They may not be as big as BAFTA, but they are starting to gain some traction in relevance. And they didn't have a weird-ass jury system this year. Are they televised at all? In the United States, I mean? No idea, but that doesn't really matter, does it? Most of the guilds aren't televised either. What AACTA shows is passion, and while they are susceptible to hometown biases to an almost parodic degree at times, they actually are a surprisingly effective bellwether. And because there is some crossover with the Academy, it gives us an idea of where some voters' minds are. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 6, 2021 1:53:44 GMT
Nothing's coming to mind, but they might've done. But even so, BFCA's usual sensibilities of playing prognosticator by reading the tea leaves of other races backfired massively this year. Or they can surprisingly hit it right this year by predicting Mulligan in the most random fashion. I still think they got it right -- Promising Young Woman did so well with nominations and pretty much every eligible branch at AMPAS responded to it in some way. That, I think, is what's going to be the tipping point. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2021 1:56:02 GMT
Are they televised at all? In the United States, I mean? Most of the guilds aren't televised either. What AACTA shows is passion, and while they are susceptible to hometown biases to an almost parodic degree at times, they actually are a surprisingly effective bellwether. And because there is some crossover with the Academy, it gives us an idea of where some voters' minds are. I really think it does - I honestly can't imagine the majority of Academy members even knowing this awards body exists. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Apr 6, 2021 1:59:15 GMT
Are they televised at all? In the United States, I mean? No idea, but that doesn't really matter, does it? Most of the guilds aren't televised either. What AACTA shows is passion, and while they are susceptible to hometown biases to an almost parodic degree at times, they actually are a surprisingly effective bellwether. And because there is some crossover with the Academy, it gives us an idea of where some voters' minds are. Honestly, it's not hard to look like a "bellwether", when your purpose is to try and predict the Oscars. AACTA pays close attention to what is happening during awards season in the US and then vote accordingly. It isn't as hard as it looks. The Golden Satellites can do much the same. If they actually had to kick off the season themselves and think independently, I suspect AACTA picks would bare little resemblance to what the Oscars ended up being. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 6, 2021 2:00:46 GMT
No idea, but that doesn't really matter, does it? Most of the guilds aren't televised either. What AACTA shows is passion, and while they are susceptible to hometown biases to an almost parodic degree at times, they actually are a surprisingly effective bellwether. And because there is some crossover with the Academy, it gives us an idea of where some voters' minds are. I really think it does - I honestly can't imagine the majority of Academy members even knowing this awards body exists. I honestly feel like the overlap between AACTA and AMPAS is tiny at best (as there just aren't that many Australians in Hollywood), but in such a fractured race people are kind of scrapping the bottom of the barrel ... every little bit counts I guess. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 6, 2021 2:01:30 GMT
No idea, but that doesn't really matter, does it? Most of the guilds aren't televised either. What AACTA shows is passion, and while they are susceptible to hometown biases to an almost parodic degree at times, they actually are a surprisingly effective bellwether. And because there is some crossover with the Academy, it gives us an idea of where some voters' minds are. Honestly, it's not hard to look like a "bellwether", when your purpose is to try and predict the Oscars. AACTA pays close attention to what is happening during awards season in the US and then vote accordingly. It isn't as hard as it looks. The Golden Satellites can do much the same. If they actually had to kick off the season themselves and think independently, I suspect AACTA picks would bare little resemblance to what the Oscars ended up being. But you could say the same thing about any precursor, and the Satellites don't share any membership with the Academy, and AACTA does. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Apr 6, 2021 2:04:07 GMT
Honestly, it's not hard to look like a "bellwether", when your purpose is to try and predict the Oscars. AACTA pays close attention to what is happening during awards season in the US and then vote accordingly. It isn't as hard as it looks. The Golden Satellites can do much the same. If they actually had to kick off the season themselves and think independently, I suspect AACTA picks would bare little resemblance to what the Oscars ended up being. But you could say the same thing about any precursor, and the Satellites don't share any membership with the Academy, and AACTA does. As Stabceasar pointed out, the likely membership crossover between AMPAS and AACTA is probably statistically insignificant. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 6, 2021 2:05:02 GMT
But you could say the same thing about any precursor, and the Satellites don't share any membership with the Academy, and AACTA does. As Stabceasar pointed out, the likely membership crossover between AMPAS and AACTA is probably statistically insignificant. "Likely." "Probably." |
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Post by flasuss on Apr 6, 2021 2:05:05 GMT
Or they can surprisingly hit it right this year by predicting Mulligan in the most random fashion. I still think they got it right -- Promising Young Woman did so well with nominations and pretty much every eligible branch at AMPAS responded to it in some way. That, I think, is what's going to be the tipping point. Yes, as some pointed out, the situation with Day is reminiscent of Stallone vs Rylance and Close vs Colman. Davis' movie has more support, but still couldn't get in BP, and has one locked win, and one or two more likely to happen than hers. I'll continue to be find hard to believe until nomination day that Ma Rainey will win more awards than anyone else, except maybe Nomadland, if couldn't even get in for BP in such a weak year. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 6, 2021 2:10:56 GMT
I still think they got it right -- Promising Young Woman did so well with nominations and pretty much every eligible branch at AMPAS responded to it in some way. That, I think, is what's going to be the tipping point. Yes, as some pointed out, the situation with Day is reminiscent of Stallone vs Rylance and Close vs Colman. Davis' movie has more support, but still couldn't get in BP, and has one locked win, and one or two more likely to happen than hers. I'll continue to be find hard to believe until nomination day that Ma Rainey will win more awards than anyone else, except maybe Nomadland, if couldn't even get in for BP in such a weak year. That's what keeps me from going all-in on Davis (well, that and the whole fact that no one's really been talking her up the way you think they would for a potential historic win; all the buzz has been on Boseman). Yeah, SAG adores her and her winning there doesn't shock me, but her film couldn't hit what by rights should've been lay-up nods for Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture? What gives? |
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 6, 2021 2:13:35 GMT
As Stabceasar pointed out, the likely membership crossover between AMPAS and AACTA is probably statistically insignificant. "Likely." "Probably." Is there any reason to believe that the membership crossover is large enough? |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2021 2:16:37 GMT
Is there any reason to believe that the membership crossover is large enough? Nicole Kidman, Judy Davis, Russell Crowe, Geoffrey Rush... I guess one of the Hemsworths would make five?  |
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Post by stephen on Apr 6, 2021 2:16:56 GMT
Is there any reason to believe that the membership crossover is large enough? Again, I don't think it really much matters one way or the other. The thing is, there is crossover and that makes them a precursor at least worth noting. It may be small, it may not be, but the point is, there are members who vote for both, which is more than we can say for HFPA or the Satellites or any number of critics' prizes. So they shouldn't be dismissed so readily. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2021 5:24:37 GMT
honestly, it has been becoming pretty clear to me that Carey has been following the Michael Keaton path, that despite them being the front and center of their movies, their films are being appreciated more as a whole than as part of them (both movies are very different awards wise yea otherwise but I'm using this comparison cus this one seems v much similar to me).
loved Carey in this, and glad that she's back, but no way does she win for this, esp after the SAG loss. i'll predict Andra now.
it might be controversial a bit but only way i could see it changing is if Kirby wins BAFTA, don't buy that Viola will win with only SAG without the BP nod, don't buy that McDormand will win her 3rd acting win so soon esp since she's winning as a producer anyway, don't buy Mulligan now after her losses especially since her movie is still being rewarded for one of its crucial aspects.
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Post by urbanpatrician on Apr 6, 2021 5:34:12 GMT
I don't care about precursors, this year is tight. 3 horse race. Any of them has a decent shot. You never know where the slight margin is gonna lean. Feels like Tilda Swinton when it seemed like Amy Ryan and Cate Blanchett was leading, but I don't think anyone thought Swinton could've won.
This year is a bit different as Mulligan is not Swinton. She actually won't be an unfathomable thought if she does win, but whatever the race is coming down to it's better when one person isn't so far in the lead.
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Post by flasuss on Apr 6, 2021 9:25:59 GMT
honestly, it has been becoming pretty clear to me that Carey has been following the Michael Keaton path, that despite them being the front and center of their movies, their films are being appreciated more as a whole than as part of them (both movies are very different awards wise yea otherwise but I'm using this comparison cus this one seems v much similar to me).
Very different cases. Birdman was much, much more of an ensemble movie than PYW, which is much more focused on Mulligan and relies more on it for it's success (it's conceivable someone loved Birdman and wanted it to win BP, but doesn't care that much for Keaton, at least not enough to give him best actor, much less so with PYW). Birdman was also the frontrunner for BP and Director, so there was no need to vote on Keaton if they wanted to reward the movie. If they wanted to reward the acting even, there were two other candidates.
Plus, Keaton had a very clear challenger in a BP nominee playing who was the most famous scientist alive in the world at the time, in a movie that was very much a performance showcase first and foremost.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2021 16:23:58 GMT
Is there anything the Academy values more than physical commitment? Day lost all of that weight for the role AND is doing her own singing.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 11, 2021 19:47:53 GMT
Watching Billie Holliday and I must say Day is sure doing the MOST acting. Maybe she does win.
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Post by franklin on Apr 11, 2021 20:24:34 GMT
Mulligan is winning.
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