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Post by wilcinema on Apr 5, 2021 19:56:43 GMT
Pretty sad that Carey won't win because she doesn't ACT but this is the Academy.
This is a historical year because all the major categories (except Original Screenplay) might go to people of color, and on the wave of her SAG win, the Academy might finally decide to give Viola her due Lead win. It would be so anticlimactic for her to win it for this performance but it's happened a lot of times before.
What do you mean? That Mulligan's performance is too restrained for the Academy? 'Cause I think she does very much ACT and does so aplenty. She does it well but I still see this performance as very much a big, actorly one. The restrained ones of the five are McDormand and for the most part Kirby. For me at least. Mulligan is not restrained but she's not even big, like Davis is. Davis is loud, showy, transformative, physical, and she plays a real-life person, which is what SAG and AMPAS usually go for. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 5, 2021 21:04:24 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA? Looks like Russell Crowe did it for Gladiator. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 5, 2021 21:04:30 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA? Russell Crowe 2000 |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Apr 5, 2021 21:06:54 GMT
Kind of surprised that there are this many votes for Mulligan. In addition to her losses up until now, it's hard for me to imagine the Academy giving the Oscar to a white actress after the Globes and SAG awarded black actresses (there's also still the possibility that BAFTA might go with Bukky Bakray or someone). I feel like people's awareness of how historic year it would be with all acting categories going to POC contenders could be a factor here.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 5, 2021 21:10:36 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA? Looks like Russell Crowe did it for Gladiator.
In the same year, mind you, Marcia Gay Harden won without a SAG, Bafta or Golden Globe nomination.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 5, 2021 21:12:05 GMT
Kind of surprised that there are this many votes for Mulligan. In addition to her losses up until now, it's hard for me to imagine the Academy giving the Oscar to a white actress after the Globes and SAG awarded black actresses (there's also still the possibility that BAFTA might go with Bukky Bakray or someone). I feel like people's awareness of how historic year it would be with all acting categories going to POC contenders could be a factor here.
On the other hand, the fact they are already giving two awards for POC, maybe 3, makes a win in best Actress much less urgent. Plus, the people that vote based on that might simply split their votes between Davis and Day.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 5, 2021 21:12:06 GMT
has the race ever been this wide open? I take everyone's point about Mulligan being vulnerable but who isn't vulnerable in that lineup? There are no frontrunners in this race. Exactly. Someone's winning the Oscar with only one precursor or none. That doesn't happen normally. But people have won with just SAG or just BAFTA (and maybe just Globe) but I can’t remember the last time someone won with just BFCA :edit I see Crowe did |
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Post by stephen on Apr 5, 2021 21:17:31 GMT
Exactly. Someone's winning the Oscar with only one precursor or none. That doesn't happen normally. But people have won with just SAG or just BAFTA (and maybe just Globe) but I can’t remember the last time someone won with just BFCA :edit I see Crowe did And Kevin Spacey in 1995. They, along with Bong Joon-ho, are the only ones I could find. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 5, 2021 21:21:35 GMT
But people have won with just SAG or just BAFTA (and maybe just Globe) but I can’t remember the last time someone won with just BFCA :edit I see Crowe did And Kevin Spacey in 1995. They, along with Bong Joon-ho, are the only ones I could find. I haven’t done the math but I feel like SAG has the best track record here so I’m going with Viola at the moment. If this was lead Actor I would give the edge to the person in the BP nominee but that doesn’t seem to matter much historically is female categories. Bafta seems to have some hits in situations like this too but they are weird this year so I don’t see them being a factor |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 5, 2021 21:31:51 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA? Russell Crowe 2000 And that was kind of a weird year since the Supporting Actor winner won SAG |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 5, 2021 21:44:48 GMT
Looks like Russell Crowe did it for Gladiator.
In the same year, mind you, Marcia Gay Harden won without a SAG, Bafta or Golden Globe nomination.
The first time MGH competed against the SAG, BAFTA, GG winners were at the Oscars. Whereas Mulligan already lost to Day, Davis.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 5, 2021 22:06:58 GMT
In the same year, mind you, Marcia Gay Harden won without a SAG, Bafta or Golden Globe nomination.
The first time MGH competed against the SAG, BAFTA, GG winners were at the Oscars. Whereas Mulligan already lost to Day, Davis.
MGH lost to them by not even being nominated. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 5, 2021 22:09:47 GMT
And that was kind of a weird year since the Supporting Actor winner won SAG Here's how it shook down:
Tom Hanks won the Globe. Benicio Del Toro won the SAG for lead. Jamie Bell (non-acting Oscar nominee) won the BAFTA. Crowe won the Critics Choice.
Currently I am leaning toward Davis here, but I think Day is a great choice too, especially since Academy members will able to get screeners for her performance. My big issue is that she's a single-nominee. U.S vs. Billie Holiday is only up for one Oscar. If it's a close call, then the more popular film would get the edge.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 5, 2021 23:16:01 GMT
The first time MGH competed against the SAG, BAFTA, GG winners were at the Oscars. Whereas Mulligan already lost to Day, Davis.
MGH lost to them by not even being nominated. But the first time she competed with them - she won. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 5, 2021 23:52:08 GMT
MGH lost to them by not even being nominated. But the first time she competed with them - she won. She was competing with them in all others and didn’t make the shortlist. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 6, 2021 0:22:02 GMT
But the first time she competed with them - she won. She was competing with them in all others and didn’t make the shortlist. It's really irrelevant to this year. All the nominees for Best Actress have been nominated for GG or SAG or BAFTA. |
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Post by mrimpossible on Apr 6, 2021 0:58:38 GMT
It's a 3 person race, maybe 4 if McDormand wins BAFTA.
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Post by dadsburgers on Apr 6, 2021 1:01:12 GMT
And that was kind of a weird year since the Supporting Actor winner won SAG Here's how it shook down:
Tom Hanks won the Globe. Benicio Del Toro won the SAG for lead. Jamie Bell (non-acting Oscar nominee) won the BAFTA. Crowe won the Critics Choice.
Currently I am leaning toward Davis here, but I think Day is a great choice too, especially since Academy members will able to get screeners for her performance. My big issue is that she's a single-nominee. U.S vs. Billie Holiday is only up for one Oscar. If it's a close call, then the more popular film would get the edge.
Although, Judy's only other nomination was Makeup and that was okay |
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Post by bob-coppola on Apr 6, 2021 1:10:59 GMT
I have no idea, by Oscar night, no one will have a strong combo. Day will have Drama Globe only, Davis will have just SAG, McDormand or Kirby might have just BAFTA, and Mulligan will just have BFCA. A true Marcia Gay Harden scenario here, as I don't think none of those trophies alone are strong enough to justify an assured prediction.
Drama Globe has a good track, but when has the winner been snubbed by SAG and a 15-names BAFTA longlist? Day is also a newcomer in a disliked movie, plus Globe voters don't vote for Oscar. SAG alone isn't a strong industry prize - as Glenn Close knows it. BAFTA was a shitshow prediction-wise with the jury categories. Sole BFCA might be the worst scenario ever, so that's also a big strike on Mulligan.
Thinking like an AMPAS voter, all of Davis, Day and Mulligan have winner-like roles/performances. Davis and Day are the transformative biopics, and Mulligan is the face of an edgy, embraced movie (Portman in Black Swan, McDormand in Three Billboards). Davis and Day are baitier, but their movies underperformed. PYW overperformed, but Mulligan isn't as baity.
McDormand ONTH is the anthisesis of an Oscar-winning role, but she's the face of the movie of the season, and if anyone has the good-will to pull off a third win for a silent salt-of-the-Earth character, that's her. She has the same critical acclaim as Mulligan, and the industry clout. If she wins BAFTA, I'll predict McDormand, as I think sole-BAFTA is the stronger precedent (Swinton in Michael Clayton?), even if I don't trust BAFTA that much in the acting categories.
Edit: Mulligan has also won AACTA, which is an industry body with good correlation with BAFTA and AMPAS. Don't think it's enough tho to predict her strongly, but it makes her BFCA win look stronger.
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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 6, 2021 1:30:32 GMT
Here's how it shook down:
Tom Hanks won the Globe. Benicio Del Toro won the SAG for lead. Jamie Bell (non-acting Oscar nominee) won the BAFTA. Crowe won the Critics Choice.
Currently I am leaning toward Davis here, but I think Day is a great choice too, especially since Academy members will able to get screeners for her performance. My big issue is that she's a single-nominee. U.S vs. Billie Holiday is only up for one Oscar. If it's a close call, then the more popular film would get the edge.
Although, Judy's only other nomination was Makeup and that was okay Basically if you're a single nominee, you have to dominate the awards circuit (Julianne Moore and Still Alice) or at least be up against other single nominee (Jessica Lange for Blue Sky).
It's reason why Tilda Swinton beat out Cate Blanchett and Amy Ryan in 2007, Colman beat out Close, and Rylance beat out Stallone.
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Post by michael128 on Apr 6, 2021 1:32:47 GMT
I have no idea, by Oscar night, no one will have a strong combo. Day will have Drama Globe only, Davis will have just SAG, McDormand or Kirby might have just BAFTA, and Mulligan will just have BFCA. A true Marcia Gay Harden scenario here, as I don't think none of those trophies alone are strong enough to justify an assured prediction. Drama Globe has a good track, but when has the winner been snubbed by SAG and a 15-names BAFTA longlist? Day is also a newcomer in a disliked movie, plus Globe voters don't vote for Oscar. SAG alone isn't a strong industry prize - as Glenn Close knows it. BAFTA was a shitshow prediction-wise with the jury categories. Sole BFCA might be the worst scenario ever, so that's also a big strike on Mulligan. Thinking like an AMPAS voter, all of Davis, Day and Mulligan have winner-like roles/performances. Davis and Day are the transformative biopics, and Mulligan is the face of an edgy, embraced movie (Portman in Black Swan, McDormand in Three Billboards). Davis and Day are baitier, but their movies underperformed. PYW overperformed, but Mulligan isn't as baity. McDormand ONTH is the anthisesis of an Oscar-winning role, but she's the face of the movie of the season, and if anyone has the good-will to pull off a third win for a silent salt-of-the-Earth character, that's her. She has the same critical acclaim as Mulligan, and the industry clout. If she wins BAFTA, I'll predict McDormand, as I think sole-BAFTA is the stronger precedent (Swinton in Michael Clayton?), even if I don't trust BAFTA that much in the acting categories. Edit: Mulligan has also won AACTA, which is an industry body with good correlation with BAFTA and AMPAS. Don't think it's enough tho to predict her strongly, but it makes her BFCA win look stronger. what’s onth |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2021 1:36:22 GMT
We really need to stop trying to make AACTA happen. It's not going to happen.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 6, 2021 1:37:21 GMT
I have no idea, by Oscar night, no one will have a strong combo. Day will have Drama Globe only, Davis will have just SAG, McDormand or Kirby might have just BAFTA, and Mulligan will just have BFCA. A true Marcia Gay Harden scenario here, as I don't think none of those trophies alone are strong enough to justify an assured prediction. Drama Globe has a good track, but when has the winner been snubbed by SAG and a 15-names BAFTA longlist? Day is also a newcomer in a disliked movie, plus Globe voters don't vote for Oscar. SAG alone isn't a strong industry prize - as Glenn Close knows it. BAFTA was a shitshow prediction-wise with the jury categories. Sole BFCA might be the worst scenario ever, so that's also a big strike on Mulligan. Thinking like an AMPAS voter, all of Davis, Day and Mulligan have winner-like roles/performances. Davis and Day are the transformative biopics, and Mulligan is the face of an edgy, embraced movie (Portman in Black Swan, McDormand in Three Billboards). Davis and Day are baitier, but their movies underperformed. PYW overperformed, but Mulligan isn't as baity. McDormand ONTH is the anthisesis of an Oscar-winning role, but she's the face of the movie of the season, and if anyone has the good-will to pull off a third win for a silent salt-of-the-Earth character, that's her. She has the same critical acclaim as Mulligan, and the industry clout. If she wins BAFTA, I'll predict McDormand, as I think sole-BAFTA is the stronger precedent (Swinton in Michael Clayton?), even if I don't trust BAFTA that much in the acting categories. Edit: Mulligan has also won AACTA, which is an industry body with good correlation with BAFTA and AMPAS. Don't think it's enough tho to predict her strongly, but it makes her BFCA win look stronger. what’s onth I believe it roughly translates to 'Cinephile Cinephile Cinephile Cinephile' |
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Post by bob-coppola on Apr 6, 2021 1:38:15 GMT
I have no idea, by Oscar night, no one will have a strong combo. Day will have Drama Globe only, Davis will have just SAG, McDormand or Kirby might have just BAFTA, and Mulligan will just have BFCA. A true Marcia Gay Harden scenario here, as I don't think none of those trophies alone are strong enough to justify an assured prediction. Drama Globe has a good track, but when has the winner been snubbed by SAG and a 15-names BAFTA longlist? Day is also a newcomer in a disliked movie, plus Globe voters don't vote for Oscar. SAG alone isn't a strong industry prize - as Glenn Close knows it. BAFTA was a shitshow prediction-wise with the jury categories. Sole BFCA might be the worst scenario ever, so that's also a big strike on Mulligan. Thinking like an AMPAS voter, all of Davis, Day and Mulligan have winner-like roles/performances. Davis and Day are the transformative biopics, and Mulligan is the face of an edgy, embraced movie (Portman in Black Swan, McDormand in Three Billboards). Davis and Day are baitier, but their movies underperformed. PYW overperformed, but Mulligan isn't as baity. McDormand ONTH is the anthisesis of an Oscar-winning role, but she's the face of the movie of the season, and if anyone has the good-will to pull off a third win for a silent salt-of-the-Earth character, that's her. She has the same critical acclaim as Mulligan, and the industry clout. If she wins BAFTA, I'll predict McDormand, as I think sole-BAFTA is the stronger precedent (Swinton in Michael Clayton?), even if I don't trust BAFTA that much in the acting categories. Edit: Mulligan has also won AACTA, which is an industry body with good correlation with BAFTA and AMPAS. Don't think it's enough tho to predict her strongly, but it makes her BFCA win look stronger. what’s onth "On the other hand" (I misspelled, meant to say OTOH lol) |
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Post by michael128 on Apr 6, 2021 1:40:22 GMT
"On the other hand" (I misspelled, meant to say OTOH lol) jfc You owe me like $50 for how long I spent trying to decipher that |
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