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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 5, 2021 2:41:26 GMT
Viola Davis - Gertrude "Ma" Rainey - Ma Rainey's Black BottomAndra Day - Billie Holiday - The United States vs. Billie HolidayVanessa Kirby - Martha Weiss - Pieces of a WomanFrances McDormand - Fern - NomadlandCarey Mulligan - Cassandra "Cassie" Thomas - Promising Young Woman
This maybe the most competitive acting race I have seen in a long time.
Here's the deal:
Day won the Globe.
Mulligan won the Critics Choice.
Davis took home the SAG.
Neither Day, Mulligan or Davis are up for the BAFTA. The only two are McDormand and Kirby.
SAG Actress winner has won the Oscar 19 out of 26 times or 73%.
The Globes and Oscar have lined up pretty nicely here within the last thirty years. The exceptions were 2008 (Winslet's Reader performance won in supporting), 2001 (Spacek beat out Berry), 1996 (Madonna somehow beat out McDormand), and 1995 (Stone beat Sarandon).
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 2:45:07 GMT
Audra Day yeah?
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Apr 5, 2021 2:45:54 GMT
I have trouble seeing Davis winning because it's a borderline supporting role, plus the last time Best Actor and Actress went to the same film was in '97, and that was a BP nominee. I think it'll be Day, who dominates her film more.
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Post by countjohn on Apr 5, 2021 2:48:00 GMT
It's pretty murky and wide open this year. My gut is saying Davis but I really have no idea.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 5, 2021 2:54:11 GMT
I have trouble seeing Davis winning because it's a borderline supporting role, plus the last time Best Actor and Actress went to the same film was in '97, and that was a BP nominee. I think it'll be Day, who dominates her film more. Yeah I voted for Day too because she has such a baity role that actors love. I think her missing SAG was a screener thing, if I’m not mistaken plus Davis is beloved there. She does have a lot against her since she’s a lone nominee with only a a Globe win, but everyone else has such huge cons too. I think it will come down to the role, and she has the baitiest. Plus, it seems like if there has to be at least one real life person win in the leading categories, and with Boseman winning, she’s the only way that can happen. |
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Post by franklin on Apr 5, 2021 2:57:37 GMT
Mulligan
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Apr 5, 2021 2:57:51 GMT
I have trouble seeing Davis winning because it's a borderline supporting role, plus the last time Best Actor and Actress went to the same film was in '97, and that was a BP nominee. I think it'll be Day, who dominates her film more. I think it will come down to the role, and she has the baitiest. Yeah, in a situation like this I'd just default to the baitiest, showiest performance where they're the focus of their film. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 5, 2021 3:00:05 GMT
I still think Mulligan takes it. SAG wasn't as into Promising Young Woman as other awards bodies were, and as stated elsewhere, they adore Viola Davis. Problem is, Viola can't really capitalize so much on that momentum because she's not nominated at BAFTA. Nor is Andra Day. And yes, neither is Carey Mulligan, but that means that the race remains so fractured that I can honestly see it being dependent on the strength of the films nominated at Oscar. Day has the role but she's a solo nominee and a complete newbie. Davis is a recent winner whose film has a locked-down winner already (and probably one or two techs), but the film missed BP and Screenplay, and just because she won here at SAG doesn't really make me feel like she's winning that historic Oscar for this. McDormand or Kirby could conceivably win BAFTA but I actually think it'll go to someone else like Bukky Bakray or something. So even though Mulligan took a hit tonight, I still think she fits the general bill of what winners go for, especially as the other branches really liked her film and it overperformed with AMPAS.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 5, 2021 3:05:53 GMT
Carey Mulligan has struggled too much. She already lost GG and wasn't nominated for BAFTA. Davis did not need the SAG win. She had won 5 times before. Mulligan needed it.
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 5, 2021 3:07:41 GMT
Still thinks it's Mulligan. It's like Regina King who missed key nominations here and there, but she was still less vulnerable than her competition (Day and Davis).
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 5, 2021 3:08:45 GMT
I still think Mulligan just because of how much Promising Young Woman overperformed. Do we really think Davis wins just because of SAG when she's underperformed the rest of the season? It's going to be Mulligan or Day, and I'm going with Mulligan.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 3:21:28 GMT
All these Davis predictions feel like massive overreactions. It's still Day or Mulligan.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 5, 2021 3:34:58 GMT
Still saying Mulligan. Davis' chances were always bigger at SAG than anywhere else, because she's a default winner at this point for anything she does there. But at the Oscars, she's in the run with a movie that wasn't really beloved that is a lock to win best actor, plus has a chance at one or two techs. Hard to believe Ma Rainey will end with the biggest haul of the night, or tied with Nomadland. Mulligan has a movie that is probably #2 or #3 in the BP race, would have been close to a lock at the BAFTA under the old voting system, her film overperformed at the nominations, and it's pretty much a role designed for the #MeToo era. Day just isn't happening, it's just a case of people trying to pretend winning the Globe makes you the automatic frontunner, even though the other two weren't even nominated. She's a lone nominee in an underseen movie only available in a platform that doesn't exist outside the US, competing against four people who are more famous , two in BP nominees, the other two available in the Netflix. In a normal year, she wouldn't even be nominated. Plus, it seems like if there has to be at least one real life person win in the leading categories, Yes, the last time that didn't happen was in the distant year of...2016, with Casey Affleck and Emma Stone, and also Ali and Davis winning in supporting. Plus, there's already one person winning for a real life figure in supporting actor. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 5, 2021 3:42:39 GMT
I still think Mulligan just because of how much Promising Young Woman overperformed. Do we really think Davis wins just because of SAG when she's underperformed the rest of the season? It's going to be Mulligan or Day, and I'm going with Mulligan. Mulligan is the one who has under performed. She lost the Globe and now the SAG. She isn't nominated for BAFTA. Her only industry precursor win is BFCA.
In the SAG era, no Best Actress won without either the SAG or BAFTA or Globe.
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Post by pupdurcs on Apr 5, 2021 3:44:02 GMT
It's Davis. I predicted her from the start, and I don't even really consider her winning SAG an "upset" because that is the kind of performance actors see and think, "yeah, that is the best, most technically audacious performance".
Honestly, were it not for Chadwick Boseman being the nailed on Best Actor winner from the same movie with such a sad narrative, Davis probably would have been a much firmer frontrunner. But people wanted an alternative to Davis, so anointed Mulligan a pretty weak frontrunner who lost the Golden Globe to Andra Day (in a poorly reviewed film that is hardly going to be a priority watch for voters) and couldn't even get nominated by her hometown BAFTA.
Davis has the respect, and she's won probably the only major precursor that matters in this strange year/season. Sure, anyone of her, Day or Mulligan could take it, but you have to give the edge to Viola now.
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Post by pupdurcs on Apr 5, 2021 3:51:52 GMT
I still think Mulligan just because of how much Promising Young Woman overperformed. Do we really think Davis wins just because of SAG when she's underperformed the rest of the season? It's going to be Mulligan or Day, and I'm going with Mulligan. has underperformed. She's one of the weakest acting "frontrunners" I can think of. She was supposed to win the Golden Globe in a cakewalk. Lost. She was supposed to be frontrunner at BAFTA. Couldn't get nominated. Anyone else who didn't win any of the Globe/SAG/BAFTA would be completely written off by now as a likely winner, but some people are still using heart over head to try and keep Mulligan in front. Promising Young Woman will win Emerald Fennell a screenwriting Oscar (probably), and the Academy makes Viola Davis, one of the most respected actresses in the business a two-time Acting winner. Most likely scenario. All bases get covered. |
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Post by quetee on Apr 5, 2021 3:54:16 GMT
A black woman...  I give the edge to Audra. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 5, 2021 3:55:13 GMT
It's Davis. I predicted her from the start, and I don't even really consider her winning SAG an "upset" because that is the kind of performance actors see and think, "yeah, that is the best, most technically audacious performance". Honestly, were it not for Chadwick Boseman being the nailed on Best Actor winner from the same movie with such a sad narrative, Davis probably would have been a much firmer frontrunner. But people wanted an alternative to Davis, so anointed Mulligan a pretty weak frontrunner who lost the Golden Globe to Andre Day (in a poorly reviewed film that is hardly going to be a priority watch for voters) and couldn't even get nominated by her hometown BAFTA. Davis has the respect, and she's won probably the only major precursor that matters in this strange year/season. Sure, anyone of her, Day or Mulligan could take it, but you have to give the edge to Viola now. No movie ever won Actor and Actress without being a BP nominee, let alone during the era when you have up to 10 winners. Everyone was a BP winner or a clear 2nd. Not only that, Davis performance is very much a supporting one, and those are even rarer to win (the reverse, leading performances winning, happens pretty much every year). The movie just doesn't have the passion behind it to pull it off, let alone while also winning possible one or two technical awards. If it did, it would in the running for BP, screenplay, maybe even another acting nom, etc.
BAFTA also changed it's voting system entirely this year, so it doesn't really count as a precursor. I find hard to believe that the membership at large, the same one that nominated PYW for Best Picture, wouldn't have nominated Mulligan for it, and that she wouldn't be be the clear frontrunner.
This kinda reminds me of Davis herself being anointed as a near lock to win in 2011 because she won SAG and they went gaga for The Help, even though it had clearly underperformed at the Oscars and only actors really liked it (and that was still a BP nominee).
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 3:56:26 GMT
It's SAG we're talking about here, they love 'showy' acting, and they fucking LOVE Viola. She's right there in the hunt for sure, but people are putting way too much stock in her SAG win.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 3:57:31 GMT
IT.IS.ANDRA.NOT.AUDRA
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Apr 5, 2021 3:59:49 GMT
Andra Day. She has the role, the performance, the star quality...
And she at least won one big precursor compared to Mulligan's zero.
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Post by pupdurcs on Apr 5, 2021 4:00:13 GMT
It's Davis. I predicted her from the start, and I don't even really consider her winning SAG an "upset" because that is the kind of performance actors see and think, "yeah, that is the best, most technically audacious performance". Honestly, were it not for Chadwick Boseman being the nailed on Best Actor winner from the same movie with such a sad narrative, Davis probably would have been a much firmer frontrunner. But people wanted an alternative to Davis, so anointed Mulligan a pretty weak frontrunner who lost the Golden Globe to Andre Day (in a poorly reviewed film that is hardly going to be a priority watch for voters) and couldn't even get nominated by her hometown BAFTA. Davis has the respect, and she's won probably the only major precursor that matters in this strange year/season. Sure, anyone of her, Day or Mulligan could take it, but you have to give the edge to Viola now. No movie ever won Actor and Actress without being a BP nominee, let alone during the era when you have up to 10 winners. Stats like this get broken every year. Not a strong enough reason to believe Davis can't or won't win. I seriously doubt voters are consciously going, I can't vote for Best Actor and Best Actress from the same movie because we didn t nominate it for Best Picture |
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Post by quetee on Apr 5, 2021 4:00:23 GMT
LMAO. There is a black actress/tony winner named Audra so I keep typing it wrong. Haha. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 4:00:30 GMT
It's Davis. I predicted her from the start, and I don't even really consider her winning SAG an "upset" because that is the kind of performance actors see and think, "yeah, that is the best, most technically audacious performance". Honestly, were it not for Chadwick Boseman being the nailed on Best Actor winner from the same movie with such a sad narrative, Davis probably would have been a much firmer frontrunner. But people wanted an alternative to Davis, so anointed Mulligan a pretty weak frontrunner who lost the Golden Globe to Andre Day (in a poorly reviewed film that is hardly going to be a priority watch for voters) and couldn't even get nominated by her hometown BAFTA. Davis has the respect, and she's won probably the only major precursor that matters in this strange year/season. Sure, anyone of her, Day or Mulligan could take it, but you have to give the edge to Viola now. How many times does it need to be said that having a jury system fucked up any baring BAFTA has on the race this season. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 4:02:25 GMT
LMAO. There is a black actress/tony winner named Audra so I keep typing it wrong. Haha. Haha yeah, I assumed that's where the confusion for some people is coming from. Makes sense. |
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I give the edge to Audra. 
