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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 4:04:15 GMT
I still think Mulligan just because of how much Promising Young Woman overperformed. Do we really think Davis wins just because of SAG when she's underperformed the rest of the season? It's going to be Mulligan or Day, and I'm going with Mulligan. Mulligan has underperformed. She's one of the weakest acting "frontrunners" I can think of. She was supposed to win the Golden Globe in a cakewalk. Lost. She was supposed to be frontrunner at BAFTA. Couldn't get nominated. Anyone else who didn't win any of the Globe/SAG/BAFTA would be completely written off by now as a likely winner, but some people are still using heart over head to try and keep Mulligan in front. Promising Young Woman will win Emerald Fennell a screenwriting Oscar (probably), and the Academy makes Viola Davis, one of the most respected actresses in the business a two-time Acting winner. Most likely scenario. All bases get covered. Insert dancing Lindo gif here. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Apr 5, 2021 4:04:40 GMT
It's Davis. I predicted her from the start, and I don't even really consider her winning SAG an "upset" because that is the kind of performance actors see and think, "yeah, that is the best, most technically audacious performance". Honestly, were it not for Chadwick Boseman being the nailed on Best Actor winner from the same movie with such a sad narrative, Davis probably would have been a much firmer frontrunner. But people wanted an alternative to Davis, so anointed Mulligan a pretty weak frontrunner who lost the Golden Globe to Andre Day (in a poorly reviewed film that is hardly going to be a priority watch for voters) and couldn't even get nominated by her hometown BAFTA. Davis has the respect, and she's won probably the only major precursor that matters in this strange year/season. Sure, anyone of her, Day or Mulligan could take it, but you have to give the edge to Viola now. How many times does it need to be said that having a jury system fucked up any baring BAFTA has on the race this season. That's tough luck, but it still doesn't help Mulligan. The reasons why doesn't matter, she needed a showing there (Even if it's just to make her seem like a winner)to offset this exact eventuality (losing SAG and the Globes). Now she goes into Oscars with no major precursor won. For a Best Actress bid, that is devastating. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 5, 2021 4:08:18 GMT
No movie ever won Actor and Actress without being a BP nominee, let alone during the era when you have up to 10 winners. Stats like this get broken every year. Not a strong enough reason to believe Davis can't or won't win. I seriously doubt voters are consciously going, I can't vote for Best Actor and Best Actress from the same movie because we didn t nominate it for Best Picture  Except of course, you know pretty well that this isn't how it works- the fact that the movie did poorly means that people won't vote on it, but rather the other way around. If Ma Rainey was beloved enough to win two leading performances, plus one or two technical wins, being perhaps the biggest winner of the night, then it would have been in contention for more awards, including Best Picture- which is, mind you, the one award that is voted by the entire membership even in the nomination stage. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 4:08:59 GMT
I still think Mulligan just because of how much Promising Young Woman overperformed. Do we really think Davis wins just because of SAG when she's underperformed the rest of the season? It's going to be Mulligan or Day, and I'm going with Mulligan. Mulligan has underperformed. She's one of the weakest acting "frontrunners" I can think of. She was supposed to win the Golden Globe in a cakewalk. Lost. She was supposed to be frontrunner at BAFTA. Couldn't get nominated. Anyone else who didn't win any of the Globe/SAG/BAFTA would be completely written off by now as a likely winner, but some people are still using heart over head to try and keep Mulligan in front. Promising Young Woman will win Emerald Fennell a screenwriting Oscar (probably), and the Academy makes Viola Davis, one of the most respected actresses in the business a two-time Acting winner. Most likely scenario. All bases get covered. Just like you said to Flassus, these aren't the kinds of things that voters consciously think of. Your average Oscar voter doesn't care about covering all bases, or the potential award tally for a certain actor. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Apr 5, 2021 4:14:14 GMT
Mulligan has underperformed. She's one of the weakest acting "frontrunners" I can think of. She was supposed to win the Golden Globe in a cakewalk. Lost. She was supposed to be frontrunner at BAFTA. Couldn't get nominated. Anyone else who didn't win any of the Globe/SAG/BAFTA would be completely written off by now as a likely winner, but some people are still using heart over head to try and keep Mulligan in front. Promising Young Woman will win Emerald Fennell a screenwriting Oscar (probably), and the Academy makes Viola Davis, one of the most respected actresses in the business a two-time Acting winner. Most likely scenario. All bases get covered. Just like you said to Flassus, these aren't the kinds of things that voters consciously think of. Your average Oscar voter doesn't care about covering all bases, or the potential award tally for a certain actor. Actually, I'm pretty sure your average Oscar voter pays some attention to who is winning the major precursors like SAG or the Globes. Like consciously. Maybe not critics awards, but the big ones. But YMMV. |
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Post by mrimpossible on Apr 5, 2021 4:17:44 GMT
People in here are forgetting that Davis is very showy, she's doing a lot of acting in the movie.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 4:23:45 GMT
Just like you said to Flassus, these aren't the kinds of things that voters consciously think of. Your average Oscar voter doesn't care about covering all bases, or the potential award tally for a certain actor. Actually, I'm pretty sure your average Oscar voter pays some attention to who is winning the major precursors like SAG or the Globes. Like consciously. Maybe not critics awards, but the big ones. But YMMV. I didn't mean that, I meant the prospect of her being a 2 time Oscar winner. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 4:24:29 GMT
Just like you said to Flassus, these aren't the kinds of things that voters consciously think of. Your average Oscar voter doesn't care about covering all bases, or the potential award tally for a certain actor. Actually, I'm pretty sure your average Oscar voter pays some attention to who is winning the major precursors like SAG or the Globes. Like consciously. Maybe not critics awards, but the big ones. But YMMV.The hell does this mean?? |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 5, 2021 4:26:46 GMT
People in here are forgetting that Davis is very showy, she's doing a lot of acting in the movie. On the other hand, she's barely in it for a leading performance. Also Carey Mulligan's role is very showy itself, and far more complex, passing through a whole lot of emotions and roles she's playing there, one moment she's a vigilante, the other she's girl next door presenting her boyfriend to her parents (Vanessa Kirby's the one that's probably too subtle to win, I think). |
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Post by pupdurcs on Apr 5, 2021 4:36:19 GMT
Actually, I'm pretty sure your average Oscar voter pays some attention to who is winning the major precursors like SAG or the Globes. Like consciously. Maybe not critics awards, but the big ones. But YMMV.The hell does this mean?? Your Mileage May Vary. It's a saying. Basically means "your experience may be different". |
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 5, 2021 4:53:36 GMT
The hell does this mean?? Your Mileage May Vary. It's a saying. Basically means "your experience may be different". Oh lol, never heard it, might be an American thing. |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Apr 5, 2021 4:58:47 GMT
I think it’s going to be Andra Day, but I love that SAG went with Viola Davis. That’s a great performance and serves as proof that Mulligan was probably nothing more than a film Twitter frontrunner.
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Post by TerryMontana on Apr 5, 2021 5:17:44 GMT
I'll say Mulligan. I think she could make it in the Oscars.
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Post by DaleCooper on Apr 5, 2021 8:57:37 GMT
Seems entirely open now. I hope that Mulligan takes it, but it seems less likely by the day. Going with Andra Day, as it is the only of the performances I haven't seen.
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Post by Brother Fease on Apr 5, 2021 10:55:17 GMT
First off, it's Andra Day. I apparently spelled it differently in two different places.
We don't know the final tally here. Davis could have won by a few votes.
The BAFTA Best Actress winner is more accurate than the SAG winner. Since 2000, they have gone 15 for 20. The exceptions were 2001 (Berry was nominated in 2002), 2003 (None of the nominees were up for Oscars), 2004 (M$B didn't get their screeners out in time), 2009 (Ditto for Blind Side). 2012 was the only time when a head-to-head lost. Riva beat out Lawrence.
If McDormand wins the BAFTA, then my money will be on either Davis or McDormand.
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Post by JangoB on Apr 5, 2021 10:55:30 GMT
OK, with a bit of some mental gymnastics I'm guessing Andra Day at this point.
Mulligan can still make it to the finish line but on paper she'd be the weakest winner in a while in terms of previous big wins - no Globe, no SAG, not even a BAFTA nomination (even though we all know how that worked). The fact that she lost SAG sure doesn't help her. PYW really can become the Get Out of this year - a genre exercise talking about important subjects which wins Original Screenplay but has its lead lose.
Davis winning SAG is certainly good for her chances but she's kind of SAG royalty with 5 wins now so they clearly have an extra level of adoration for her. Maybe AMPAS just votes for the Ma Rainey duo, maybe they'll just focus on Boseman. Kind of tough. But Davis already has an Oscar and they may remember that.
Andra Day though....I know the movie isn't that beloved but she's raved across the board, they campaigned quite well for her and she's certainly got the baitiest role of the bunch. I don't think she's a lock by any means but I can weirdly see her pulling it off.
I love that for once we have a wide open race here.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 5, 2021 13:16:48 GMT
OK, with a bit of some mental gymnastics I'm guessing Andra Day at this point. Mulligan can still make it to the finish line but on paper she'd be the weakest winner in a while in terms of previous big wins - no Globe, no SAG, not even a BAFTA nomination (even though we all know how that worked). The fact that she lost SAG sure doesn't help her. PYW really can become the Get Out of this year - a genre exercise talking about important subjects which wins Original Screenplay but has its lead lose. Davis winning SAG is certainly good for her chances but she's kind of SAG royalty with 5 wins now so they clearly have an extra level of adoration for her. Maybe AMPAS just votes for the Ma Rainey duo, maybe they'll just focus on Boseman. Kind of tough. But Davis already has an Oscar and they may remember that. Andra Day though....I know the movie isn't that beloved but she's raved across the board, they campaigned quite well for her and she's certainly got the baitiest role of the bunch. I don't think she's a lock by any means but I can weirdly see her pulling it off. I love that for once we have a wide open race here. Agree with all of your points here. Last night I was wondering if a film has ever won Best Actress and Best Actor without being nominated for Best Picture and was going to look it up when I had more time, but luckily my question was answered as I saw someone say that the only films to win two acting awards without being nominated for Best Picture were The Miracle Worker and Hud, both of which very likely would have made it into Best Picture under the system now. Obviously whoever wins is going to break some kind of major stat that generally happens because of how unpredictable this category is, and even though I don’t think voters have a hive mind, even if enough voters switching Stanfield makes me sort of question that now, I think they’ll spread the above the line awards around except for the ones Nomadland is expected to win. Plus even though her movie has a rotten score, I’ve seen constant praise for Day, and I think Billie Holiday is right up there with Winston Churchill, Freddie Mercury, and Judy Garland. I know Diana Ross lost for Lady Sings the Blues, but that was different time, and Minnelli was in a stronger film plus was the daughter of Hollywood royalty. Among the nominees this year, Day has the baitiest role, and is facing competition who I think has more cons than she does. Davis just won recently, and aside from SAG, she hasn’t won anything major which seems highly unusual for someone going for their second win especially in lead. Not to mention her film not being nominated for Best Picture. I always thought Mulligan’s role would be too much for Oscar voters who didn’t like Gone Girl or Nightcrawler that much either, but PYW did show more strength with them than either GG or Nightcrawler, but in the end I think it still holds true. Not to mention that she’s only won Critics Choice. McDormand would be running away with this if she hadn’t already won twice, but unlike with DD-L or even Streep, there’s just no sweep or narrative that has built up for her to win her third even if she is in the likely Best Picture winner. Sometimes it just happens like I don’t think Nomadland wins in a normal year, but all the pieces fell into place for it. Or even like Bakalova being nominated or possibly winning. In a normal year, it probably never happens, but this isn’t a normal year. |
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Post by franklin on Apr 5, 2021 13:22:36 GMT
Andra Day. She has the role, the performance, the star quality... And she at least won one big precursor compared to Mulligan's zero. Star quality?? Loool. She's literally an unknown, it's Mulligan or Davis. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Apr 5, 2021 16:53:00 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA?
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Post by stephen on Apr 5, 2021 17:08:22 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA? Nothing's coming to mind, but they might've done. But even so, BFCA's usual sensibilities of playing prognosticator by reading the tea leaves of other races backfired massively this year. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 5, 2021 17:42:41 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA? has the race ever been this wide open? I take everyone's point about Mulligan being vulnerable but who isn't vulnerable in that lineup? There are no frontrunners in this race. |
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Post by stephen on Apr 5, 2021 18:50:40 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA? has the race ever been this wide open? I take everyone's point about Mulligan being vulnerable but who isn't vulnerable in that lineup? There are no frontrunners in this race. Exactly. Someone's winning the Oscar with only one precursor or none. That doesn't happen normally. |
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Post by wilcinema on Apr 5, 2021 19:02:21 GMT
Pretty sad that Carey won't win because she doesn't ACT but this is the Academy.
This is a historical year because all the major categories (except Original Screenplay) might go to people of color, and on the wave of her SAG win, the Academy might finally decide to give Viola her due Lead win. It would be so anticlimactic for her to win it for this performance but it's happened a lot of times before.
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Post by JangoB on Apr 5, 2021 19:31:50 GMT
Pretty sad that Carey won't win because she doesn't ACT but this is the Academy.
This is a historical year because all the major categories (except Original Screenplay) might go to people of color, and on the wave of her SAG win, the Academy might finally decide to give Viola her due Lead win. It would be so anticlimactic for her to win it for this performance but it's happened a lot of times before.
What do you mean? That Mulligan's performance is too restrained for the Academy? 'Cause I think she does very much ACT and does so aplenty. She does it well but I still see this performance as very much a big, actorly one. The restrained ones of the five are McDormand and for the most part Kirby. For me at least. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 5, 2021 19:35:29 GMT
Has anybody ever won with just BFCA? has the race ever been this wide open? I take everyone's point about Mulligan being vulnerable but who isn't vulnerable in that lineup? There are no frontrunners in this race. Mulligan is struggling too hard. She had never won the Globe but lost to a new comer when PYW was up for Best Picture. Then she lost to someone who had already won 5 SAGs.
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