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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 28, 2022 6:21:04 GMT
I actually feel like if anyone could spoil the top 5 at the moment it's Vicky Krieps. I feel like she will get a BAFTA nod, and she seems to have a lot of fans amongst the voters. I have an inkling she would show up Penelope Cruz/Charlotte Rampling/Marion Cotillard style. Cotillard won NY and NSFC, got nominated at BFCA and Satellite, plus got a shit ton of regional noms and wins. And was a previous winner. Rampling won LA and NSFC, the Silver Bear, got nominated at BFCA and Satellite, plus got a shit ton of regional noms and wins. Cruz won LA and NSFC, the Volpi, got nominated at AACTA and Satellite, plus a number of key regional noms and wins. And was a previous winner. Krieps has an EFA win, a Satellite nom, and a couple of regional noms. They aren't remotely comparable situations. Plus what is the evidence that she has 'a lot of fans amongst voters'?? It's just an inkling. Maybe she will win NSFC. The critics in that group have a major hard on for Europeans. And the evidence is the BAFTA anonymous interviews and London FCC where she's nominated. Yes I know anonymous ballots are usually meaningless, but almost all of them singled her out which means she has quite some fans. BAFTA has this weird system now so she might very well be nominated.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 28, 2022 21:07:03 GMT
Am I the only one who thinks the ENTIRE Lead Actress category might already be locked? I mean, maybe someone will come to their senses about Williams' category fraud (though the only memory I have of AMPAS actually saying "oh, fuck off!" to category fraud is Winslet for "The Reader") and correctly place her in Supporting where she'd easily win (and 100% deservedly so!), but I doubt it. So barring that, I have a hard time seeing how or why we'd end up with a line-up that isn't the expected Blanchett/Davis/Deadwyler/Williams/Yeoh top 5 lineup. I wouldn’t rule out Robbie or De Armas sneaking in.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 28, 2022 21:19:39 GMT
I think Ana de Armas is the real spoiler. She’s risen above her movie’s awful reception and she has made AACTA and Golden Globes. If she gets SAG, she can totally get that final slot at the Oscars.
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filmnoir
Full Member
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 28, 2022 22:01:35 GMT
Cotillard won NY and NSFC, got nominated at BFCA and Satellite, plus got a shit ton of regional noms and wins. And was a previous winner. Rampling won LA and NSFC, the Silver Bear, got nominated at BFCA and Satellite, plus got a shit ton of regional noms and wins. Cruz won LA and NSFC, the Volpi, got nominated at AACTA and Satellite, plus a number of key regional noms and wins. And was a previous winner. Krieps has an EFA win, a Satellite nom, and a couple of regional noms. They aren't remotely comparable situations. Plus what is the evidence that she has 'a lot of fans amongst voters'?? It's just an inkling. Maybe she will win NSFC. The critics in that group have a major hard on for Europeans. And the evidence is the BAFTA anonymous interviews and London FCC where she's nominated. Yes I know anonymous ballots are usually meaningless, but almost all of them singled her out which means she has quite some fans. BAFTA has this weird system now so she might very well be nominated. Translation: You are a Superfan who wants her to be nominated. Otherwise, this is REALLY reaching.
She doesn't have the name recognition in the Academy or industry. She is not tied to a potential Best Picture nominee and she has only gotten minimal mentions from the critics' awards.
Secret ballots? They are Click Bait. Hardly the representation of the broad voting membership.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 12, 2023 4:22:53 GMT
After SAG noms:
Michelle Yeoh Cate Blanchett Viola Davis
Colin Farrell Brendan Fraser Austin Butler Bill Nighy
Ke Huy Quan Brendan Gleeson Barry Keoghan
Kerry Condon Angela Bassett Jamie Lee Curtis
Michelle Williams shot herself in the head lol.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 12, 2023 4:35:16 GMT
After SAG noms: Michelle Yeoh Cate Blanchett Viola Davis Colin Farrell Brendan Fraser Austin Butler Bill Nighy Ke Huy Quan Brendan Gleeson Barry Keoghan Kerry Condon Angela Bassett Jamie Lee Curtis Michelle Williams shot herself in the head lol. I'm gonna have to hear how Davis is possibly a lock.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 12, 2023 4:50:48 GMT
After SAG noms: Michelle Yeoh Cate Blanchett Viola Davis Colin Farrell Brendan Fraser Austin Butler Bill Nighy Ke Huy Quan Brendan Gleeson Barry Keoghan Kerry Condon Angela Bassett Jamie Lee Curtis Michelle Williams shot herself in the head lol. I'm gonna have to hear how Davis is possibly a lock. Why would't she be a lock? Davis is an Academy favourite and she's hit every single precursor so far. She's less of a lock than Blanchett and Yeoh, but I don't see her snubbed.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 12, 2023 6:43:26 GMT
I'm gonna have to hear how Davis is possibly a lock. Why would't she be a lock? Davis is an Academy favourite and she's hit every single precursor so far. She's less of a lock than Blanchett and Yeoh, but I don't see her snubbed. None of that is wrong, but Williams, Deadwyler and de Armas all are very strong at this point too. Ana hit every precursor too, is clearly a passion pick, and has better reviews than Davis (and clear support from fellow actors (e.g. Farrell at the Globes). Deadwyler hit SAG and has better notices than Davis . Williams hit Globes and has a Top 3 film behind her. Not sure about Deadwyler because of their track record, but both de Armas and Williams have a much better chance of hitting BAFTA than Davis. The Woman King missing ensemble is not a great sign, and it's also been lacking with the guilds. They're all relatively even, so that's how I fail to see one being a lock over the others.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 12, 2023 13:03:35 GMT
I’m just very hesitant to call extremely likely nominees as “locks” so
Yeoh Blanchett
Butler Farrell
Quan
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2023 13:47:14 GMT
I'm gonna have to hear how Davis is possibly a lock. Why would't she be a lock? Davis is an Academy favourite and she's hit every single precursor so far. She's less of a lock than Blanchett and Yeoh, but I don't see her snubbed. “Less of a lock” means not a lock though. Lock means 100%
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 12, 2023 13:48:25 GMT
I’m just very hesitant to call extremely likely nominees as “locks” so Yeoh Blanchett Butler Farrell Quan There's being hesitant, and then there's this. How are people like Fraser, Gleeson and Condon not locks??
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 12, 2023 14:29:41 GMT
I’m just very hesitant to call extremely likely nominees as “locks” so Yeoh Blanchett Butler Farrell Quan There's being hesitant, and then there's this. How are people like Fraser, Gleeson and Condon not locks?? I mean they basically are but I could still envision scenarios, however extremely unlikely, where they miss. Whereas I can’t at all for those I listed. Very nitpicky I know, as I’m not including ppl I’d say have a 99% chance of being nominated.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jan 13, 2024 5:01:32 GMT
ACTOR Bradley Cooper, Maestro Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
ACTRESS Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Carey Mulligan, Maestro Emma Stone, Poor Things
SUPPORTING ACTOR Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer Ryan Gosling, Barbie
SUPPORTING ACTRESS Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 13, 2024 8:50:49 GMT
I think Brooks is vulnerable in Supporting Actress. Double nod for Huller?
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 13, 2024 9:52:47 GMT
I’m really strict when it comes to calling things locks haha.
Cillian Murphy Da’Vine Joy Randolph
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 13, 2024 13:29:38 GMT
Lol, going back through this last page was fun
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 13, 2024 13:52:48 GMT
Murphy, Giamatti, Stone, Gladstone, Gosling, RDJ and Randolph
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Post by JangoB on Jan 13, 2024 14:28:53 GMT
Murphy, Cooper & Giamatti
Gladstone & Stone
Downey Jr. & Gosling
Randolph
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Post by PromNightCarrie on Jan 13, 2024 14:29:02 GMT
I’m really strict when it comes to calling things locks haha. Cillian Murphy Da’Vine Joy Randolph Same. Those two and Robert Downey Jr.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 14, 2024 5:04:31 GMT
Murphy Giamatti
Gladstone Stone
RDJ
Randolph
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