AKenjiB
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Post by AKenjiB on Feb 17, 2021 9:27:17 GMT
I don’t think Seyfried is a lock at this point. She got snubbed by SAG even though Gary Oldman still got a nod. She certainly still has a shot of getting in but this could be a similar situation to Shailene Woodley in The Descendants. Initially thought to be a strong supporting actress contender but ultimately snubbed in spite of the film being nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2021 13:48:07 GMT
AKenjiB - Not sure that Woodley is the best comparison (she was never considered a Lock so early on the way Seyfried was), but I agree with your overall point - SAG was a huge ass miss.
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Post by stephen on Feb 17, 2021 14:00:14 GMT
That Seyfried snub threw me for a loop I still haven't recovered from. BAFTA isn't going to shed any light on this race because there are six slots and six actresses fighting for contention, unless one of them misses (which could conceivably happen). Right now, I think Zengel will lose the game of musical chairs just because of her youth, but News of the World could easily overperform and she could benefit from that, and she does have vitally important precursors in her camp. The only two actresses I feel fairly confident on and would be utterly shocked if they did miss nominations are Colman and Bakalova. Youn and Close are right behind them but I could feasibly see either one missing in the end (even if I am not predicting either one to), and then there's Seyfried (who by rights should be higher but SAG didn't bite and Mank keeps losing momentum, and SAG is the one precursor that should've been a slam dunk for her). Zengel probably should be on the Youn/Close tier, but I think her nomination is dependent on how News of the World does with PGA. I think if it gets into Picture there, I bump her up.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 17, 2021 16:08:48 GMT
I disagree that Mank is losing momentum. It went very well at the Globes, it underperformed at SAG, but it should recover at BAFTA, they like American period movies. Seyfried is in trouble but I think she'll be nominated. I was skeptical on News of the World and Zengel, but it seems that the movie will get into Best Picture (actually I think Greengrass might even make DGA), so there will be at least one big snub (I have one name in mind but I hope it's not her).
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 17, 2021 16:22:45 GMT
I disagree that Mank is losing momentum. It went very well at the Globes, it underperformed at SAG, but it should recover at BAFTA, they like American period movies. Seyfried is in trouble but I think she'll be nominated. I was skeptical on News of the World and Zengel, but it seems that the movie will get into Best Picture (actually I think Greengrass might even make DGA), so there will be at least one big snub (I have one name in mind but I hope it's not her). I agree. I’d say that Mank is picking up momentum if anything. Seems like it was out of the convo but will continue to do well with the guilds.
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Post by stephen on Feb 17, 2021 17:47:09 GMT
I disagree that Mank is losing momentum. It went very well at the Globes, it underperformed at SAG, but it should recover at BAFTA, they like American period movies. Seyfried is in trouble but I think she'll be nominated. I was skeptical on News of the World and Zengel, but it seems that the movie will get into Best Picture (actually I think Greengrass might even make DGA), so there will be at least one big snub (I have one name in mind but I hope it's not her). It very much is a Globe movie and there it did as well as it possibly could've done, but SAG really should've been all up on that movie and they just didn't. BAFTA might bite, but I'm hearing rumblings at there are people in the guilds -- particularly the tech branches -- that are cooler on it than expected (Will Mavity tweeted anecdotally that some of the sound designers and editors he's spoken with haven't been as keen on it as one would think). I think Mank is still in the top five, but its win equity is dwindling hard and I'm actually thinking it walks away with a single win for Production Design, and I could see it missing key nominations in things you think it would be a cinch for, and Seyfried could easily be one of them. I still think she's in, but barely, and could easily be overtaken by the SAG five.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 17, 2021 17:53:51 GMT
I disagree that Mank is losing momentum. It went very well at the Globes, it underperformed at SAG, but it should recover at BAFTA, they like American period movies. Seyfried is in trouble but I think she'll be nominated. I was skeptical on News of the World and Zengel, but it seems that the movie will get into Best Picture (actually I think Greengrass might even make DGA), so there will be at least one big snub (I have one name in mind but I hope it's not her). It very much is a Globe movie and there it did as well as it possibly could've done, but SAG really should've been all up on that movie and they just didn't. BAFTA might bite, but I'm hearing rumblings at there are people in the guilds -- particularly the tech branches -- that are cooler on it than expected (Will Mavity tweeted anecdotally that some of the sound designers and editors he's spoken with haven't been as keen on it as one would think). I think Mank is still in the top five, but its win equity is dwindling hard and I'm actually thinking it walks away with a single win for Production Design, and I could see it missing key nominations in things you think it would be a cinch for, and Seyfried could easily be one of them. I still think she's in, but barely, and could easily be overtaken by the SAG five. You’re not predicting it to win Score?
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Post by stephen on Feb 17, 2021 17:54:35 GMT
It very much is a Globe movie and there it did as well as it possibly could've done, but SAG really should've been all up on that movie and they just didn't. BAFTA might bite, but I'm hearing rumblings at there are people in the guilds -- particularly the tech branches -- that are cooler on it than expected (Will Mavity tweeted anecdotally that some of the sound designers and editors he's spoken with haven't been as keen on it as one would think). I think Mank is still in the top five, but its win equity is dwindling hard and I'm actually thinking it walks away with a single win for Production Design, and I could see it missing key nominations in things you think it would be a cinch for, and Seyfried could easily be one of them. I still think she's in, but barely, and could easily be overtaken by the SAG five. You’re not predicting it to win Score? No, I think Reznor and Ross win for their other film this year.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 17, 2021 23:37:53 GMT
Yeah, I think Soul wins score because they will be able to reward Batiste as well as Reznor and Ross.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2021 17:13:26 GMT
Also, fun bit of random trivia - If they're nominated this year for their respective films, McDormand and Close will both have equal nominations between Leading and Supporting: Close: 8 nominations (4 Leading, 4 Supporting) McDormand: 6 nominations (3 Leading, 3 Supporting)
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Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 18:44:06 GMT
Also, fun bit of random trivia - If they're nominated this year for their respective films, McDormand and Close will both have equal nominations between Leading and Supporting: Close: 8 nominations (4 Leading, 4 Supporting) McDormand: 6 nominations (3 Leading, 3 Supporting) And Viola Davis will have two leading and two supporting as well.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2022 16:08:44 GMT
I'm doing it. ACTORAustin Butler Colin Farrell Brendan Fraser ACTRESSCate Blanchett Michelle Yeoh SUPPORTING ACTORBrendan Gleeson Ke Huy Quan SUPPORTING ACTRESSKerry Condon mhynson27
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Post by stephen on Dec 22, 2022 16:25:44 GMT
I'm doing it. ACTORAustin Butler Colin Farrell Brendan Fraser ACTRESSCate Blanchett Michelle Yeoh SUPPORTING ACTORBrendan Gleeson Ke Huy Quan SUPPORTING ACTRESSKerry Condon Yeah, I hesitate to use the word "lock" (see my comments about Affleck in 2012), but these are the safe options. I'm beginning to think Keoghan is also safe but I'll wait until SAG to see. I can see an argument for Curtis because she really wants it and is campaigning hard and she got the Globe nod, but HFPA loves her and she could easily be Aaron Taylor-Johnson'd. Also, as much as I hate to say it, Williams should probably be here as well.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 22, 2022 16:57:59 GMT
I think Bill Nighy can be considered a lock, too. He won LAFCA, he got in at the Globes, he'll get in at BAFTA and Sony Pictures Classics is very good at getting nominations for his actors with the Academy.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 23, 2022 22:58:33 GMT
I'm doing it. ACTORAustin Butler Colin Farrell Brendan Fraser ACTRESSCate Blanchett Michelle Yeoh SUPPORTING ACTORBrendan Gleeson Ke Huy Quan SUPPORTING ACTRESSKerry Condon mhynson27 Looks about right to me. I'd be tempted to add Nighy, Williams and Keoghan too.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2022 20:56:28 GMT
The Film Experience currently has Jessie Buckley locked in Supporting Actress... Thoughts on this?
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Post by stephen on Dec 24, 2022 21:13:48 GMT
The Film Experience currently has Jessie Buckley locked in Supporting Actress... Thoughts on this? She's not locked, but she's likely. She's a recent prior nominee and her film at least has a strong likelihood of an above-the-line win (Adapted Screenplay), and it seems Foy isn't gaining enough traction to cause potential vote-splitting. I'm currently predicting her over the likes of Bassett and Hsu.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 24, 2022 22:34:38 GMT
She's definitely not a lock, and at this point I have her teetering between 5th/6th.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 25, 2022 20:01:21 GMT
The Film Experience currently has Jessie Buckley locked in Supporting Actress... Thoughts on this? Not a lock but Women Talking is pretty unpredictable anyway - it could miss a lot of places before the Oscars and still resonate with voters (even Whishaw! Undeserved! ) - and Buckley may be the benefciary of a previous nominee glow.........like there's a lot of "new names" in every freakin' category - including hers - like some potential all newbie categories...........it's not going to be that simple or simplistic.........she's a checkmark type person for a nod .........and her film is not the kind that I would say "I don't know how anybody would like that!"..........I know exactly who would and why and it wouldn't shock me to see her name.........Foy does more with less but Buckley has more.......Foy always does more with less btw - ever see - Unsane .......hmmmm Several of the contenders in this category are utterly baffling to me - Monae, Curtis, Bassett ......at least Buckley makes sense on role and performer history
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 27, 2022 19:21:38 GMT
Am I the only one who thinks the ENTIRE Lead Actress category might already be locked? I mean, maybe someone will come to their senses about Williams' category fraud (though the only memory I have of AMPAS actually saying "oh, fuck off!" to category fraud is Winslet for "The Reader") and correctly place her in Supporting where she'd easily win (and 100% deservedly so!), but I doubt it. So barring that, I have a hard time seeing how or why we'd end up with a line-up that isn't the expected Blanchett/Davis/Deadwyler/Williams/Yeoh top 5 lineup.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2022 19:36:18 GMT
Am I the only one who thinks the ENTIRE Lead Actress category might already be locked? I mean, maybe someone will come to their senses about Williams' category fraud (though the only memory I have of AMPAS actually saying "oh, fuck off!" to category fraud is Winslet for "The Reader") and correctly place her in Supporting where she'd easily win (and 100% deservedly so!), but I doubt it. So barring that, I have a hard time seeing how or why we'd end up with a line-up that isn't the expected Blanchett/Davis/Deadwyler/Williams/Yeoh top 5 lineup. I definitely think that's the lineup, but I'm not counting out Robbie or Colman just yet.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 27, 2022 19:36:34 GMT
Am I the only one who thinks the ENTIRE Lead Actress category might already be locked? I mean, maybe someone will come to their senses about Williams' category fraud (though the only memory I have of AMPAS actually saying "oh, fuck off!" to category fraud is Winslet for "The Reader") and correctly place her in Supporting where she'd easily win (and 100% deservedly so!), but I doubt it. So barring that, I have a hard time seeing how or why we'd end up with a line-up that isn't the expected Blanchett/Davis/Deadwyler/Williams/Yeoh top 5 lineup. Maybe - I see those top 5 everywhere - it's quite boring tbh......... I just can't say Davis is a lock - there's other thngs to enjoy about the film besides her (I didn't enjoy them but whatever) and I can't dismiss Colman stealing her spot.......I doubt it but not so much that I'd call Davis a "lock".........I never doubt Colman these days - I think shell come up short..........but..........
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 27, 2022 20:21:17 GMT
Am I the only one who thinks the ENTIRE Lead Actress category might already be locked? I mean, maybe someone will come to their senses about Williams' category fraud (though the only memory I have of AMPAS actually saying "oh, fuck off!" to category fraud is Winslet for "The Reader") and correctly place her in Supporting where she'd easily win (and 100% deservedly so!), but I doubt it. So barring that, I have a hard time seeing how or why we'd end up with a line-up that isn't the expected Blanchett/Davis/Deadwyler/Williams/Yeoh top 5 lineup. But remember what happened to Lady Gaga last year. She was only actress to receive BFCA, Globe, SAG, BAFTA nods, but was snubbed at the very end.
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 28, 2022 3:11:42 GMT
I actually feel like if anyone could spoil the top 5 at the moment it's Vicky Krieps. I feel like she will get a BAFTA nod, and she seems to have a lot of fans amongst the voters. I have an inkling she would show up Penelope Cruz/Charlotte Rampling/Marion Cotillard style.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 28, 2022 4:42:27 GMT
I actually feel like if anyone could spoil the top 5 at the moment it's Vicky Krieps. I feel like she will get a BAFTA nod, and she seems to have a lot of fans amongst the voters. I have an inkling she would show up Penelope Cruz/Charlotte Rampling/Marion Cotillard style. Cotillard won NY and NSFC, got nominated at BFCA and Satellite, plus got a shit ton of regional noms and wins. And was a previous winner. Rampling won LA and NSFC, the Silver Bear, got nominated at BFCA and Satellite, plus got a shit ton of regional noms and wins. Cruz won LA and NSFC, the Volpi, got nominated at AACTA and Satellite, plus a number of key regional noms and wins. And was a previous winner. Krieps has an EFA win, a Satellite nom, and a couple of regional noms. They aren't remotely comparable situations. Plus what is the evidence that she has 'a lot of fans amongst voters'??
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