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Post by quetee on Nov 5, 2020 19:13:05 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 5, 2020 19:23:12 GMT
Biden only behind by 100K in PA with 500K left to count from predominantly blue areas.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 5, 2020 19:38:17 GMT
I really can't wait for the polling post-mortem across ALL states (and you know I'm going to look at each one) because even though it looks that the error has favored Trump on average, some of that error looks to be in a pretty reasonable margin (NC for example, arguably Texas). Ann Seltzer's pre-election poll showing Trump up in Iowa by 7+ was a huge outlier but she pretty much nailed it. But there were a ton of failures in the midwest. Wisconsin and Michigan weren't the 6-point-plus dem blowouts the polls have been showing for months and Ohio which was supposed to be a toss-up wasn't close at all.
two spots where the polls seem to have done pretty well is with Colorado and Virginia where Biden is poised to win by much larger margins than Clinton's in 2016, but even in these decidedly blue states the error favored Trump rather than Biden. The common theme is that the pollsters severely underestimated Trump's support apparently across the board.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 5, 2020 19:44:19 GMT
If all these votes count (?) Biden approaching 72.5 million now - trouncing Obama's 2008 previous record by 3 million atm - Trump approaching 69 million so he may possibly catch Obama's 2008 totals as well.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 5, 2020 19:46:56 GMT
apparently most of what's left to count in Nevada is largely coming from Cook County (home to Las Vegas). So Biden's lead should theoretically be expanding as more results come in, and that's with 14% of the expected votes are still outstanding.
PA and GA are honestly looking good too. Biden only needs 60% of the remaining mail-in ballots in PA and his rate so far with mail-in ballots in the state has been 78%.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 5, 2020 19:47:46 GMT
If all these votes count (?) Biden approaching 72.5 million now - trouncing Obama's 2008 previous record by 3 million atm - Trump approaching 69 million so he may possibly catch Obama's 2008 totals as well. this will be a historic election in so many ways. we'll need a few years and a few very long books to process what happened here.
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Post by quetee on Nov 5, 2020 19:52:38 GMT
If all these votes count (?) Biden approaching 72.5 million now - trouncing Obama's 2008 previous record by 3 million atm - Trump approaching 69 million so he may possibly catch Obama's 2008 totals as well. this will be a historic election in so many ways. we'll need a few years and a few very long books to process what happened here. In a nutshell: Trump pissed off 5% of the white men cause that is the only demo that he lost support. Every other group increased.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 5, 2020 19:56:56 GMT
I just realized my county flipped for Biden!! Trump carried Stafford VA by 9 points in 2016 and lost it by 3 in 2020
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Post by ibbi on Nov 5, 2020 20:11:47 GMT
How many days this is gonna drag? Sounds like Pennsylvania will be done (or all but done) today, and if it goes the way it's looking to go then that will be that. The losers will kick up a fuss, file law suits, tweet, etc. but it isn't going to make any difference. Also, just when you thought Jeffersonian, Lincolnian lyrical eloquence was a thing of the past...
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Post by quetee on Nov 5, 2020 20:45:52 GMT
I need one of those Men in Black memory wipes because the thought of Ivanka, JR, that other one, that other one female version, and Brahms lingering in my mind makes me ill.
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Post by Joaquim on Nov 5, 2020 20:52:30 GMT
If all these votes count (?) Biden approaching 72.5 million now - trouncing Obama's 2008 previous record by 3 million atm - Trump approaching 69 million so he may possibly catch Obama's 2008 totals as well. Nice
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Post by Joaquim on Nov 5, 2020 20:54:35 GMT
Good to see tucker doing what he can to give us the explosive season finale we deserve
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Nov 5, 2020 21:19:58 GMT
Good to see tucker doing what he can to give us the explosive season finale we deserve Get fucked, Tucker!
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Post by Joaquim on Nov 5, 2020 21:21:19 GMT
The trump family rn:
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Nov 5, 2020 21:26:04 GMT
The things one does to alleviate their anxiety. Most of my time has been spent number crunching and analyzing states at play. A lot of that includes watching Trump’s shrinking lead in Pennsylvania (Down from 160,000 this morning to 98,000 right now), and it helps to take the edge off. My best friend is also really anxious bout this election, so I’ve been sharing stats with her, and seeing the chance of Pennsylvania - and possibly Georgia - flipping is good news. We both agree we don’t want four more years of this cunt (her words, not mine). The things we do to preserve our sanity.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Nov 5, 2020 21:30:18 GMT
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Post by quetee on Nov 5, 2020 21:34:05 GMT
LMAO. I love it. The shade is strong with this one.
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Post by urbanpatrician on Nov 5, 2020 22:14:52 GMT
This is an amazing stat - Joe Biden - if he wins (and he will) will be the first Democrat elected President since 1884 who begins his 1st term without a majority in both the House and the Senate (assuming the Republicans do indeed hold the Senate which it appears to be the case). It is far more likely that Joe Biden will be the first President since Richard Nixon in 1968 to arrive in the White House without a Senate majority – and the first Democrat since Grover Cleveland in 1884 not to have full control of Congress.capx.co/the-democrats-have-won-this-battle-but-biden-will-be-a-lame-duck-from-day/Here's another amazing stat. Trump destroys the all-time Republican popular vote by about 7 million, probably 8 million++ when it's finished and...... yet the race is still close. Biden beats the all-time Democratic popular vote by only 3 million as it stands now. Both are likely gonna pass 70 million in the end.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Nov 5, 2020 22:37:35 GMT
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tep
Full Member
formerly known as Ban
Posts: 577
Likes: 149
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Post by tep on Nov 5, 2020 23:20:00 GMT
As wild and entertaining as these four years have been, I'm glad to see that the Trump Era is (very probably) coming to an end. Hopefully after the dust settles and Biden is inaugurated, politics won't be shoved in my face constantly 24/7.
Though I wonder how much media attention a post-presidency Trump will get.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Nov 5, 2020 23:24:50 GMT
Trump’s Pennsylvania lead this morning was 160,000. It’s now been slashed in half to 78,000.
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Lubezki
Based
the social distancing
Posts: 4,332
Likes: 6,554
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Post by Lubezki on Nov 5, 2020 23:41:50 GMT
Trump is about to come on live TV and cry about fraud.
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Post by quetee on Nov 5, 2020 23:48:13 GMT
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Post by quetee on Nov 5, 2020 23:49:31 GMT
LMAO. They are losing their shit.
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Post by quetee on Nov 5, 2020 23:55:43 GMT
Trump is about to come on live TV and cry about fraud. What's the over/under of his level of crazy?
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