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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 21, 2020 16:42:20 GMT
Oldman to me feels like Leo last year. Will get in everywhere but never actually wins anything, a distant 3rd.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 22, 2020 16:15:43 GMT
Stanfield feels like he's been on the cusp of an awards breakout for a while now, but I'm not sure I see him getting that all-important Best Actor nomination for this. The buzz really favors Kaluuya, and while we assume they're going to push him supporting to take advantage of a relatively weak category, that's still just speculation, as I get the sense that it'll be a Last King of Scotland situation. I get the sense this will be another notch in his belt that propels him into being cast in more awards-friendly projects that ultimately gets him that nod, but I think he'll get the "perspective protagonist who gets shafted in favor of the louder, showier co-star" treatment. Right now, I think Hopkins and Boseman are secure, and I think Oldman and Lindo are a tier below, in that I think they are solid bets but I wouldn't be gobsmacked if either of them got snubbed in the end. The fifth spot is anyone's guess. A Lindo snub definitely wouldn’t sulfide me at this point.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 23, 2020 20:07:27 GMT
Does anyone think Ben Affleck has a shot of picking up momentum and scoring a nom for The Way Back?
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Post by franklin on Nov 23, 2020 20:50:40 GMT
Does anyone think Ben Affleck has a shot of picking up momentum and scoring a nom for The Way Back? Definitely, if Hanks flops I can see: 1. Boseman 2. Hopkins 3. Oldman 4. Lindo 5. Affleck
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Post by stephen on Nov 23, 2020 21:13:31 GMT
Does anyone think Ben Affleck has a shot of picking up momentum and scoring a nom for The Way Back? Extremely unlikely. That movie had such an insanely early release (to the point that I forgot it even came out this year), it didn't exactly get the most rapturous praise when it came out (yes, some called it a career-best performance by Ben Affleck, but is that really that impressive a metric when they've never recognized him for his acting?), and four of the five slots are almost spoken for at this stage. For Affleck to get in, all the other contenders would have to fall by the wayside and there would have to be a sudden ignition of passion for a performance in a film that came and went with little (if any?) fanfare.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 24, 2020 1:18:07 GMT
Does anyone think Ben Affleck has a shot of picking up momentum and scoring a nom for The Way Back? This will show how little a chance I think Affleck has. I'd predict Langella getting into Supporting before I'd even consider Affleck getting in here.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 24, 2020 1:53:13 GMT
Affleck isn't getting nominated. Although it's still barren relative to last year, this is still (probably) this year's most competitive acting category. If Affleck ever gets an acting nom, it'll be for an overall contender (similar to someone/something like Mark Wahlberg for The Departed). I'm not sure I'm comfortable calling Lindo (or even Oldman) locked, but they're relatively safe which means there's more or less one slot with at least a half dozen people (Yeun, Hanks, Ben-Adir, Stanfield, Ahmed, Firth etc.) in a better position.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 27, 2020 0:50:13 GMT
Extremely unlikely. That movie had such an insanely early release (to the point that I forgot it even came out this year), it didn't exactly get the most rapturous praise when it came out (yes, some called it a career-best performance by Ben Affleck, but is that really that impressive a metric when they've never recognized him for his acting?), and four of the five slots are almost spoken for at this stage. For Affleck to get in, all the other contenders would have to fall by the wayside and there would have to be a sudden ignition of passion for a performance in a film that came and went with little (if any?) fanfare. Not to mention that Affleck is basically the male Lopez, who got snubbed despite being considered one of the early frontrunners for Hustlers. He just doesn't command very much respect as an actor.
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Post by stephen on Nov 27, 2020 1:02:17 GMT
Extremely unlikely. That movie had such an insanely early release (to the point that I forgot it even came out this year), it didn't exactly get the most rapturous praise when it came out (yes, some called it a career-best performance by Ben Affleck, but is that really that impressive a metric when they've never recognized him for his acting?), and four of the five slots are almost spoken for at this stage. For Affleck to get in, all the other contenders would have to fall by the wayside and there would have to be a sudden ignition of passion for a performance in a film that came and went with little (if any?) fanfare. Not to mention that Affleck is basically the male Lopez, who got snubbed despite being considered one of the early frontrunners for Hustlers. He just doesn't command very much respect as an actor. Yeah. I think you put any other A-list actor in the lead role in Argo and they probably get nominated (or, at least, they're in strong contention). BAFTA went for Affleck (but then again, they have their anti-Washington bias), but no one else did. The Lopez comparison is a valid one, and not only because the two of them are so inextricably linked. There was a period of time where people thought that Affleck's first Oscar was undeserved and that he was riding Damon's coattails. Affleck's renaissance as a director helped revitalize his image, but I think it's gonna be a long time before they recognize him for his acting chops. Which is a shame, because I do think Affleck is a very fine actor and should've netted a few nominations by now (and a win for Hollywoodland, personally).
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 2, 2020 15:02:54 GMT
I’m sure I’ll change this a few times but going with
Boseman Hopkins Oldman Hanks Ahmed
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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 5, 2020 1:44:46 GMT
I’m starting to have more confidence in Ahmed. He’s got some of the best reviews of all the contenders, his film is well-liked by everyone who’s seen it, it’s a very physical part with the added narrative of working with deaf people and learning the drums and he’s a very respected actor.
Boseman Hopkins Oldman Lindo Ahmed
Yeun Hanks Ben-Adir Affleck Holland
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 13, 2020 21:33:48 GMT
My first predictions:
Boseman Hopkins Oldman Lindo Ahmed
Basically the same as above.
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Post by stephen on Dec 13, 2020 21:39:11 GMT
I've said it elsewhere, but I'm starting to get vibes that Mikkelsen is a dark horse for the nomination. His film is poised to be a major frontrunner for the International prize, he's been everywhere the last decade, his last outing with Vinterberg won him massive acclaim and a Cannes Best Actor award, and he's been gearing up for an awards breakout for a while. I would not be surprised if Oldman or Lindo wind up losing ground while Ahmed and Mikkelsen gain it, and one of the former miss out.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Dec 14, 2020 1:25:14 GMT
I've said it elsewhere, but I'm starting to get vibes that Mikkelsen is a dark horse for the nomination. His film is poised to be a major frontrunner for the International prize, he's been everywhere the last decade, his last outing with Vinterberg won him massive acclaim and a Cannes Best Actor award, and he's been gearing up for an awards breakout for a while. I would not be surprised if Oldman or Lindo wind up losing ground while Ahmed and Mikkelsen gain it, and one of the former miss out. Agreed, he’s picking up steam at the right time.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 14, 2020 13:34:10 GMT
I've said it elsewhere, but I'm starting to get vibes that Mikkelsen is a dark horse for the nomination. His film is poised to be a major frontrunner for the International prize, he's been everywhere the last decade, his last outing with Vinterberg won him massive acclaim and a Cannes Best Actor award, and he's been gearing up for an awards breakout for a while. I would not be surprised if Oldman or Lindo wind up losing ground while Ahmed and Mikkelsen gain it, and one of the former miss out. Nothing would make me happier TBH. I didn't really consider him a threat but it would be amazing to see him get in. It's not a done deal but it's looking better for him than one would assume. It would be great at to see him showing up at roundtables (or the Zoom equivalent thereof).
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 14, 2020 13:50:34 GMT
Boseman Hopkins Oldman Ahmed Lindo
Yeun Mikkelsen
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 15, 2020 15:09:02 GMT
I actually think Ahmed has probably moved ahead of Lindo.
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Post by stephen on Dec 15, 2020 16:37:45 GMT
I actually think Ahmed has probably moved ahead of Lindo. They're pretty much fighting for the same oxygen in the room, and Ahmed has a friendlier release date to work with. Lindo needs that resurgence.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 15, 2020 16:56:00 GMT
Not sure why Lindo needs to be fretting about anything at the moment. It's obvious he's going to be showing up everywhere at the critics prizes, either as a nominee (and maybe a winner here or there). And his movie Da 5 Bloods is stronger with critics and more AMPAS friendly than Ahmed's, and it's far more likely that almost every Academy member will have seen it (because it's Lee).
We get contenders like Ahmed all the time (think Ethan Hawke in First Reformed who ultimately missed with the Academy) that critics go ga-ga for, but don't neccesarily come in a package that appeal to Academy voters. He's looking good right now, but not a sure thing. We can't live completely in the moment.
My feeling is that both Lindo and Ahmed get nomimated, but Lindo is probably the safer of the two. Lindo's veteran status also helps him. In the eyes of the industry, he's earned the right to be acknowledged with a nomination after 30+ years of stalwart work as a well regarded character actor.
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 15, 2020 17:10:17 GMT
Not sure why Lindo needs to be fretting about anything at the moment. It's obvious he's going to be showing up everywhere at the critics prizes, either as a nominee (and maybe a winner here or there). And his movie Da 5 Bloods is stronger with critics and more AMPAS friendly than Ahmed's, and it's far more likely that almost every Academy member will have seen it (because it's Lee). We get contenders like Ahmed all the time (think Ethan Hawke in First Reformed who ultimately missed with the Academy) that critics go ga-ga for, but don't neccesarily come in a package that appeal to Academy voters. He's looking good right now, but not a sure thing. We can't live completely in the moment. My feeling is that both Lindo and Ahmed get nomimated, but Lindo is probably the safer of the two. Lindo's veteran status also helps him. In the eyes of the industry, he's earned the right to be acknowledged with a nomination after 30+ years of stalwart work as a well regarded character actor. I think D5B is going to do well with SAG too. That will be a big boost for its prospects in acting..can actually see Outstanding Cast, Actor (Lindo), and Supporting Actor (Boseman). Plus it being Spike Lee and Boseman being in it alot of Academy members have probably already seen it or will see it during screeners. I believe Netflix has already sent out screener DVDs for it.
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Post by franklin on Dec 15, 2020 21:01:59 GMT
Ahmed seems to be in a way stronger position than Hawke two years ago.
1. Boseman 2. Hopkins 3. Ahmed 4. Oldman 5. Lindo/Yeun
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 15, 2020 21:19:18 GMT
Yeah, I'm starting to think Ahmed might be ahead of Lindo too (or is at least en route to pulling ahead).
1. He is peaking at the right time, unlike Lindo whose movie came out over 6 months ago. 2. He is the front-and-center showcase performer of his own movie, unlike Lindo who is in more of an ensemble. 3. Sound of Metal seems fairly crowd-pleasing and has much better audience scores than Da 5 Bloods.
My read of the race is:
1. Boseman (the frontrunner) 2. Hopkins (the challenger) 3. Oldman (the filler nominee) 4. Ahmed (the passion pick) 5. Lindo (the unrecognized veteran)
I guess Yeun and Hanks are 6 and 7, but I think they're clearly behind these 5.
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Post by dadsburgers on Dec 27, 2020 19:57:41 GMT
1) Boseman 2) Lindo 3) Hopkins 4) Ahmed 5) Yeun
Predicting an Oldman snub
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AKenjiB
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Post by AKenjiB on Jan 2, 2021 5:44:41 GMT
It seems like it’s down to 6 people mainly and might just be determining who the odd man out is:
Riz Ahmed Chadwick Boseman Anthony Hopkins Delroy Lindo Gary Oldman Steven Yeun
Maybe a dark horse will suddenly emerge and enter the conversation but right now it looks like 5 of these 6 will be nominated. Kinda reminds me of 2012/2013 when Cooper, Day Lewis, Jackman, Phoenix, and Washington were all nominated with Hawkes being the 6th contender who ultimately didn’t make the cut.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 2, 2021 12:25:31 GMT
It seems like it’s down to 6 people mainly and might just be determining who the odd man out is: Riz Ahmed Chadwick Boseman Anthony Hopkins Delroy Lindo Gary Oldman Steven Yeun Maybe a dark horse will suddenly emerge and enter the conversation but right now it looks like 5 of these 6 will be nominated. Kinda reminds me of 2012/2013 when Cooper, Day Lewis, Jackman, Phoenix, and Washington were all nominated with Hawkes being the 6th contender who ultimately didn’t make the cut. I’d agree with this. I’d keep an eye on Holland and especially Stanfield. Affleck might show up at GG or SAG too. I’d consider Mikkelsen too if he had a stronger distributor behind him.
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