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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 18, 2020 14:26:40 GMT
Sorry if this exists in another thread but I couldn't find it........the woke scolds at movie abomination site Indie Wire (um) with an update for MAR yesterday. There is no way Liam Neeson is getting nodded - I personally thought he had his lunch handed to him by Manville, but I digress: www.indiewire.com/feature/oscars-2021-best-actor-predictions-1234574778/Frontrunners: Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”)
Contenders: Timothée Chalamet (“Dune”) George Clooney (“The Midnight Sky”) Bradley Cooper (“Nightmare Alley”) Benedict Cumberbatch (“Prison 760”) Matt Damon (“Stillwater”) Adam Driver (“Annette”) Ansel Elgort (“West Side Story”) Michael Fassbender (“Next Goal Wins”) Andrew Garfield (“The Eyes Of Tammy Faye”) Tom Hanks (“News Of The World”) Bill Murray (“On The Rocks”) Liam Neeson (“Ordinary Love”) Gary Oldman (“Mank”) Joaquin Phoenix (“C’mon, C’mon”) Tahir Rahim (“Prisoner 760”) John David Washington (“Tenet”)
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 18, 2020 14:37:44 GMT
There is no way Nightmare Alley is coming out in time for this season. Also doubtful of Annette and Next Goal Wins. Right now I'm feeling good about these 4:
Hopkins Hanks Lindo Oldman
Then Denzel for the 5th spot if Tragedy of Macbeth comes out in time and if not then I'll go with Phoenix.
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Post by stephen on Jul 18, 2020 14:53:51 GMT
Hopkins feels like the safest bet right now. Lindo feels like he'll get in whatever category Netflix pushes him in, and I do hope it's the correct (leading) category, but I don't trust Netflix not to want to hedge their bets and go for the category fraud, especially if Mank pans out and they wanna gun for Oldman's second win. The pundits and smaller awards bodies need to rally to Lindo as a leading man and reject any narrative to the contrary. Oldman, well, all he really needs is for his movie to be good and he's in. Hanks just got his welcome-back nod and he's returning to work with Greengrass, but he could easily miss as he has done for seemingly safe bets in the past.
Annette's already confirmed to be 2021 with an aimed Cannes bow, so we can pretty well reject it at the moment as a contender. I also feel like The Tragedy of Macbeth might get pushed as well (especially if they want to maximize their chances with McDormand, it's best to do so by having Nomadland come out now and Macbeth come out the next cycle). And yeah, very much doubt that Nightmare Alley will make the cut this year as well.
Murray feels like a solid enough contender on paper, re-teaming with Coppola and some people might want to recognize him if his competition are previous winners or relative newbies, especially if Lindo is docked to supporting. I feel like Garfield will be more of a supporting candidate to Chastain. Phoenix could have afterglow support but considering his general reticence on campaigning, they might decide they've recognized him and now can move on from him now that they've paid lip service to the concept that it's about the art, not the politics. Don't see Neeson cracking through at all, and Chalamet/Washington feel like long-shots at best, though Chalamet has a potential banner year in the mix with this and the Wes Anderson, so I'd put him slightly ahead of Washington for that.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 18, 2020 16:59:58 GMT
Nightmare Alley won't be ready on time.
I'd love Murray getting another nod but atm I'm pretty confident for the 4 usual suspects: Hopkins, Hanks, Lindo, Oldman. Although I'm afraid Netflix will push Delroy in the supporting lot...
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 18, 2020 17:04:14 GMT
Nightmare Alley won't be ready on time. I'd love Murray getting another nod but atm I'm pretty confident for the 4 usual suspects: Hopkins, Hanks, Lindo, Oldman. Although I'm afraid Netflix will push Delroy in the supporting lot...I've heard that this is 100% not happening.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 18, 2020 18:03:51 GMT
Nightmare Alley won't be ready on time. I'd love Murray getting another nod but atm I'm pretty confident for the 4 usual suspects: Hopkins, Hanks, Lindo, Oldman. Although I'm afraid Netflix will push Delroy in the supporting lot...I've heard that this is 100% not happening. That's good.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 22, 2020 15:50:06 GMT
My predictions
Anthony Hopkins, The Father Gary Oldman, Mank Tom Hanks, News of the World Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Bill Murray, On the Rocks and Eddie Redmayne, Trial of the Chicago Seven (if he's lead) battling it out for the 5th spot.
As said before Hanks can seem locked and then miss like often before. I wouldn't be surprised if they push Lindo in supporting where he stands a bigger chance to win and won't compete against Oldman, however he'll probably compete against their "Trial" ensemble so who knows at this point. Murray has the overdue factor Hopkins, Oldman and Hanks don't. The biggest hurdle is for him to get in but a Coppola reunion should do the trick.
Nightmare Alley is not coming out in time. Doubt Macbeth will either.
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DanQuixote
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Post by DanQuixote on Jul 22, 2020 23:14:12 GMT
Obviously unsure about release dates, but here’s what I’m thinking at the moment.
01. Anthony Hopkins, The Father 02. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods 03. Gary Oldman, Mank 04. Tom Hanks, News of the World 05. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth 06. Bill Murray, On the Rocks 07. Joaquin Phoenix, Cmom Cmon 08. Daniel Kaluuya, Jesus Is My Homeboy 09. Matt Damon, Stillwater 10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 26, 2020 16:31:29 GMT
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 26, 2020 17:15:10 GMT
I'm starting to feel that Lindo is in more of a precarious position than people here think.
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Post by stephen on Sept 26, 2020 19:26:33 GMT
I'm starting to feel that Lindo is in more of a precarious position than people here think. I think the critics will still go to bat for him, but he's still an early-as-fuck release in an inordinately long awards season where a lot of the heavy-hitter competition will be dropping 6-8 months after his film premiered. Lindo could easily get the Tom Hanks in 2013 treatment if that end-of-season competition turns out to be strong. His performance is powerful but by no means undeniable.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 26, 2020 19:36:36 GMT
I'm starting to feel that Lindo is in more of a precarious position than people here think. I think the critics will still go to bat for him, but he's still an early-as-fuck release in an inordinately long awards season where a lot of the heavy-hitter competition will be dropping 6-8 months after his film premiered. Lindo could easily get the Tom Hanks in 2013 treatment if that end-of-season competition turns out to be strong. His performance is powerful but by no means undeniable. Tom Hanks is more likely to get the Tom Hanks in 2013 treatment than Lindo. By which I mean Hanks getting his annual snub. He made it last year, but he is no longer a cause celebre. Nobody has to answer any questions about why he hasnt been nominated in 20 years. The yearly thinkpieces about him not being nominated will no longer be there to guilt voters. I don't think he's suddenly an easy nod for filler spots. When a year gets crowded in Best Actor, Hanks is always the first guy I expect to be a casualty in the race, sight unseen. Lindo is fine. He's still in one of the most heavily praised films of the year. I mean some people are acting like Trial Of The Chicago 7 is the new Best Picture Frontrunner, when it's sitting at a 74 on metacritic, while Da 5 Bloods is on 82.Trust me, that shit matters to critics, who can help push specific contenders to the finish line. Lindo is in a very good spot in terms of making the final 5.
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Post by franklin on Sept 26, 2020 20:47:35 GMT
1. Hopkins 2. Lindo 3. Oldman 4. Baron Cohen 5. Hanks
6. Holland 7. Kaluuya 8. Clooney 9. Broadbent 10.Mikkelsen
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 26, 2020 22:10:33 GMT
Updated predictions:
Anthony Hopkins, The Father Gary Oldman, Mank Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7 Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Bless Messiah Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
HM: Tom Holland, Cherry Tom Hanks, News of the World
Agreed that Lindo isn't undeniable (and I think he'd fare better in supporting).
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 27, 2020 15:16:26 GMT
Till the moment I see all of their movies, my top predictions are Hopkins, Oldman, Hanks and Lindo (only performance I've seen so far, of course).
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2020 16:56:37 GMT
I think even though some people him in the top 7-10 ......... Tom Hanks is being underestimated if his film is good of course. I would in many ways call him the real favorite - The Father is a depressing story it's far easier to admire than to like - I'm rooting for it - but no male actor has won an Oscar for the role which won a Tony in a loooooooong time (Amadeus?). It's got barriers to overcome too. Also, Hanks on paper isn't sharing the spotlight with anyone - compare that with the others .........he's going to be in maybe every scene......and lastly this nonsense about Hanks could be in a contending film but left out himself a la 2013 .....is delusional thinking imo......Hanks wasn't nodded for 20 years but that doesn't actually "mean" anything - the board does this all the time too. ......It's a quirk of the process: There's a reason the top Oscar nodded actors of the 50s........60s.........70s.......80s......all basically have the same range of nods 7 to 9 with Nicholson as the "Mr. Hollywood" outlier with 12.
Now that will change going forward, and we'll have guys get to 10 - Hanks will be 1 of them probably - but his exclusion from nominations should not be misread - there's not really a difference between 7,8,9 nods anyway except as a sort of self-correcting nomination quirk. That's 70 years of a trend...... ..........I say this all the time when all is said and done the average person will consider him the GOAT - which is fine, you can't stop people liking what they like after all and that same idea I think might play into his 2020......
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Post by stephen on Sept 27, 2020 17:08:15 GMT
I think even though some people him in the top 7-10 ......... Tom Hanks is being underestimated if his film is good of course. I would in many ways call him the real favorite - The Father is a depressing story it's far easier to admire than to like - I'm rooting for it - but no male actor has won an Oscar for the role which won a Tony in a loooooooong time (Amadeus?). It's got barriers to overcome too. I mean, how many Tony-winning leading male roles have been adapted to film since Amadeus? Troy Maxson came damn close to the win in 2016, Richard Nixon was in the thick of it in 2008, LBJ, Prior Walter and Roy Cohn went to television, and a lot of revival roles where the adaptation came prior to the stage turn. Barrymore's really the only winning role that went to film that went nowhere from the look of it. (As a side-note, when are we getting a goddamn Jerusalem adaptation? Why couldn't Spielberg do that instead of West Side Story, and hook up with Rylance?) The Father has an insane awards track record for that part. Hirsch, Cranham, and Langella have all won the major theater prize for it, and now you've got a bonafide legend like Anthony Hopkins coming in with career-high raves (and like I've said elsewhere, if they're not undeniable they're as close as you can get; that ink put me in immediate mind of Blanchett's in Blue Jasmine, where you can pretty much engrave the statuette now). Hopkins has just about everything you could want right now: the role, the raves, the studio, the narrative (a legendary actor getting his second win to cap off a long and storied career), and the film. Plus it seems like he really wants it this time, based on the interviews, where the passion is just pouring off of him in waves for the role. It's a downer of a story, but it's an engrossing one, and it sounds like it overcomes the staginess of its source material in ways that other theatrical adaptations have failed to do.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2020 17:26:00 GMT
I think even though some people him in the top 7-10 ......... Tom Hanks is being underestimated if his film is good of course. I would in many ways call him the real favorite - The Father is a depressing story it's far easier to admire than to like - I'm rooting for it - but no male actor has won an Oscar for the role which won a Tony in a loooooooong time (Amadeus?). It's got barriers to overcome too. I mean, how many Tony-winning leading male roles have been adapted to film since Amadeus? Troy Maxson came damn close to the win in 2016, Richard Nixon was in the thick of it in 2008, LBJ, Prior Walter and Roy Cohn went to television, and a lot of revival roles where the adaptation came prior to the stage turn. Barrymore's really the only winning role that went to film that went nowhere from the look of it. (As a side-note, when are we getting a goddamn Jerusalem adaptation? Why couldn't Spielberg do that instead of West Side Story, and hook up with Rylance?) Well not many but they all lost : Fences, Frost/Nixon, Shadowlands, and if you go Supporting there's a couple more Glengarry Glen Ross or M. Butterfly ......I'm just saying they aren't baity roles for the Oscar or don't transfer that way historically - in fact, I can't even think of a recent male nodded for a Tony role in Lead or Featured (?) that's won the Oscar (ie like "Doubt").........I may be drawing a blank of one (?) Now I do agree Hopkins is in a great spot and it's a great role - and it's as good a play as Fences or Doubt were......but I'm just seeing it on paper as a Hopkins-Hanks race more than most I guess......I really don't know how Lindo factors in ......or will factor in I should say. Would love to see a Jerusalem movie stephen........as I've said it's maybe the 2nd best performance I ever saw on stage..........top 5 anyway. I think people are afraid to tackle it or something actually.......it isn't even staged much .......it's a beast
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 27, 2020 17:35:21 GMT
I mean, how many Tony-winning leading male roles have been adapted to film since Amadeus? Troy Maxson came damn close to the win in 2016, Richard Nixon was in the thick of it in 2008, LBJ, Prior Walter and Roy Cohn went to television, and a lot of revival roles where the adaptation came prior to the stage turn. Barrymore's really the only winning role that went to film that went nowhere from the look of it. (As a side-note, when are we getting a goddamn Jerusalem adaptation? Why couldn't Spielberg do that instead of West Side Story, and hook up with Rylance?) Well not many but they all lost : Fences, Frost/Nixon, Shadowlands, and if you go Supporting there's a couple more Glengarry Glen Ross or M. Butterfly ......I'm just saying they aren't baity roles for the Oscar or don't transfer that way historically - in fact, I can't even think of a recent male nodded for a Tony role in Lead or Featured (?) that's won the Oscar (ie like "Doubt").........I may be drawing a blank of one (?) Now I do agree Hopkins is in a great spot and it's a great role - and it's as good a play as Fences or Doubt were......but I'm just seeing it on paper as a Hopkins-Hanks race more than most I guess...... I really don't know how Lindo factors in ......or will factor in I should say.Would love to see a Jerusalem movie stephen........as I've said it's maybe the 2nd best performance I ever saw on stage..........top 5 anyway. I think people are afraid to tackle it or something actually.......it isn't even staged much .......it's a beast Bunch of critics wins and then 5th at best come Oscars time.
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Post by stephen on Sept 27, 2020 17:35:26 GMT
Now I do agree Hopkins is in a great spot and it's a great role - and it's as good a play as Fences or Doubt were......but I'm just seeing it on paper as a Hopkins-Hanks race more than most I guess......I really don't know how Lindo factors in ......or will factor in I should say. Would love to see a Jerusalem movie stephen........as I've said it's maybe the 2nd best performance I ever saw on stage..........top 5 anyway. I think people are afraid to tackle it or something actually.......it isn't even staged much .......it's a beast Jerusalem needs a strong visualist, someone who knows how to evoke wonder and splendor to match the juggernaut performance at its center . . . but also someone who knows how to draw back to really highlight just how damn pathetic life actually is for Rooster. I think Spielberg could do it.
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Post by franklin on Sept 27, 2020 17:41:07 GMT
The average person will consider Hanks the GOAT???
No, I absolutely don't think so.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 27, 2020 17:42:35 GMT
The average person will consider Hanks the GOAT??? No, I absolutely don't think so. Maybe not THE GOAT but Top 5 minimum for sure.
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Post by stephen on Sept 27, 2020 17:54:15 GMT
The average person will consider Hanks the GOAT??? No, I absolutely don't think so. Maybe not THE GOAT but Top 5 minimum for sure. Yeah, the general public adores Hanks, and his awards haul easily would put him in the conversation in terms of an enduring legacy. He may not be the cool pick, because he's America's dad and primarily plays heroic everymen in mainstream fare, but Hanks is a worthy enough contender.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2020 18:06:20 GMT
The average person will consider Hanks the GOAT??? No, I absolutely don't think so. Yeah it's arguable - I've said this a lot that I think he has no glaring weakness when you look at him and his work......this is a different thread really - but he has every award, he has comedies and dramas, he has an insanely high amount of beloved films in his stellar filmography and a lot are "family films" even which is a huge plus in how he's taken - he transcends ages and checks every "box". Now, personally would I rank him as "the best" - no............... I don't even rank him as best of his generation and I think he comes from a somewhat weaker generation too (the 80s generation).....but a lot of people would .......and when you compare him 1 to 1 to any actor you have to really stretch to find his surface weaknesses as opposed to most actors where it's very easy to do that......he has weaknesses - all actors do - but he has ones that are easy to overlook imo and I find people are very willing to overlook them in his case often. Anyway, a 7th nomination this year will go a long for his stature this year if it plays out that way .......
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 27, 2020 18:21:04 GMT
Maybe not THE GOAT but Top 5 minimum for sure. Yeah, the general public adores Hanks, and his awards haul easily would put him in the conversation in terms of an enduring legacy. He may not be the cool pick, because he's America's dad and primarily plays heroic everymen in mainstream fare, but Hanks is a worthy enough contender. Honestly, I think the general public can love an actor, without considering them the GOAT. As incredibly well liked as James Stewart, Jack Lemmon and Morgan Freeman are by the public, I don't think they are neccesarily percived as the top 3 best actors of all time by said public. They just have/had an incredibly strong rapport with audiences, mostly because they are known for being hugely likable and affable onscreen. Hanks falls into that bracket. I'd actually argue that as a pure actor, many people in the general public underrate him. They like him for his likability and his percieved "goodness", but if probed deeper might probably admit they think someone like Robert DeNiro, whom they don't neccesarily admire as much, is a "better actor". But if asked whom they like more, they may say Hanks. Hanks is definitely set as one of the most popular actors/movie stars ever, but even with the level of acclaim he's achieved, I don't think he'll ever be a wide consensus choice for GOAT. Like you said, he's not "cool" enough and never will be. To too many, he's more like your favorite harmless Uncle or Dad, not the greatest actor ever (guys like Brando, Denzel, DeNiro, Pacino etc have that "cool" and dangerous intense factor to be more consensus picks for that distinction, shallow as that may seem to some). Being known as the embodiment of playing nice guys will make you popular, but those are the drawbacks as well.
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