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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 27, 2020 10:32:06 GMT
RNC Day 3 - Well......um, this was a less successful night to me than Day 2. Some clearly identifiable lowlights in parts of speeches and noticeable bullshittery in a few speeches too.
Lowlights: Marsha Blackburn who was everything the Left accuses Trump America of being with a scary and loathsome zeal in her remarks........the 2nd half of Pence's speech was obvious pandering.
Highlights - Kayleigh McEnany & Kellyanne Conway - gave great, female empowerment speeches (!?!) on Trump's behalf and made it sound real. McEnany is a Republican star ....the campaign isn't using her enough.
Other oddities included a nun (!), a well meaning but somewhat dull Lara Trump and the POTUS NOT speaking for once but still on camera with Pence at the end.
Night 4 approaches ominously - a solid night 1, a perfect night 2, a so-so night 3 and a hurricane looming both literally and metaphorically............Rahm Emanuel had the best analysis point of the night comparing Trump to Bush 41 at this same point in the campaign.
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Post by urbanpatrician on Aug 27, 2020 16:59:57 GMT
I thought Lara Trump was pretty good. Pretty basic message about making it in America "Just a gal from North Carolina," but Kayleigh McEnany's stood out because it sounded so sincere. A breast surgery survival story.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Aug 27, 2020 17:26:50 GMT
Pam Bondi for president. Melania Trump killed it last night too. She's actually a really good first lady no matter how much you don't like Trump. Counterpoint: no, she is not.
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Post by urbanpatrician on Aug 27, 2020 17:29:57 GMT
Pam Bondi for president. Melania Trump killed it last night too. She's actually a really good first lady no matter how much you don't like Trump. Counterpoint: no, she is not. Says the Biden guy, lol.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 28, 2020 1:53:19 GMT
See, now I'm starting to get nervous. Nationally Biden still leads by around 8 points but his leads in battleground states have consistently been shrinking since his highpoints in June and July, especially in Florida. He didn't get a convention bump but Trump has. At this point Trump's best path barring cheating (which there will be, at least to some extent) is getting the electorate to forget about COVID and forget about and/or turn on BLM, and evidence is suggesting that both of those things are starting to happen (because people have short fuckin attention spans) with over two months until Nov. 3. of the nine battleground states, the following are favored to Trump according to FiveThirtyEight: Ohio Georgia Iowa(40 votes) favoring Biden: Florida Pennsylvania Wisconsin Minnesota(69 votes) Toss-ups: North Carolina, leans Trump Arizona, leans Biden (26 votes) Biden has some wiggle room but his lead in every single one of these states has been trending down, so some of the states currently favored for Biden might become toss-ups by November, and the current toss-ups might swing safely enough towards Trump. Now, if Biden wins those four states and Trump wins those six, that's still Biden's 69 to Trump's 66 (and that's just in the battleground states) but he has to maintain his lead in those states and he absolutely HAS to win Florida. the 270towin map is also concerning, because although Dems have far more safe votes than the GOP, the worrying numbers are those 91 toss-up electoral votes in the middle and the 66 leaning democrat votes. If, for the sake of argument, Trump takes every single one of those 91 toss-up votes and keeps all the red ones, that would give us a result of Biden's 278 to Trump's 260, a difference of only 18 points. And this is assuming that Trump doesn't steal any of the leaning blue states, which is possible with Biden's leads diminishing... Although (a little positive note) 270towin lists Florida as a toss-up state which means that Biden wouldn't actually have to win it in order to win the election with 278 points. Theoretically all he has to do is keep all the blue and leaning blue states (which includes Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania). Trump could win Florida and still lose the election.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Aug 28, 2020 2:39:06 GMT
anybody got the Vegas odds on pacinoyes defending that shooter in a thread in the next day or two
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 28, 2020 2:52:32 GMT
anybody got the Vegas odds on pacinoyes defending that shooter in a thread in the next day or two You're doing "Vegas odds" now? Gee, that and your "college degree in statistics" (um) makes you the most boring America hater ever, huh comrade? How's mom's basement btw? Fight the power
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Post by Martin Stett on Aug 28, 2020 4:21:46 GMT
anybody got the Vegas odds on pacinoyes defending that shooter in a thread in the next day or two Hey, I'll do it! I think first degree murder is a hard charge to stick when most available evidence looks like he is getting chased and attacked. That said, the stupid idiot kid brought a gun, and those don't harm anyone if you're not carrying. So I don't have any sympathy for him. If he was so concerned about defending people's homes (*pfft*) he shouldn't have been walking around with a deadly weapon. Pepper spray would work fine if he knew how to use it. But instead, he brought a gun because - at the very least - he didn't take into account the possibility that its proximity meant that he could use it. At the worst, he was looking for a fight.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Aug 28, 2020 4:24:41 GMT
Well, the Republican convention starts next week and this week at the DNC - no mention of riots in our cities, Antifa.......of China.....of Iran .......several other things. I liked a lot of the DNC but that was a whole lot that was playing it safe and while that may be enough to win in November.......an opening exists if Trump can be disciplined ......which he most likely can't .... Antifa is just a rightwing talking point at this point, literally no serious person is talking about or thinking about them. You hear about them a lot from AM radio talking heads but there's no evidence of them being linked to violence in any of these protests and no one currently charged has any links to antifa. They don't seem to have any kind of organizational leadership. It's just a boogeyman used by Tucker and Rush and the rest to stir up white resentment against civil rights and black/brown people protesting in general (even when they do it peacefully). Fake news. to add on to this: none of the radical leftists i know who are going to protests are connected in any hierarchical way. the thought of marxist leninists, ancoms, and plain anarchists being able to put their differences aside and organize online anyways is laughable if you've seen the infighting.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Aug 28, 2020 4:25:57 GMT
anybody got the Vegas odds on pacinoyes defending that shooter in a thread in the next day or two Hey, I'll do it! I think first degree murder is a hard charge to stick when most available evidence looks like he is getting chased and attacked. That said, the stupid idiot kid brought a gun, and those don't harm anyone if you're not carrying. So I don't have any sympathy for him. If he was so concerned about defending people's homes (*pfft*) he shouldn't have been walking around with a deadly weapon. Pepper spray would work fine if he knew how to use it. But instead, he brought a gun because - at the very least - he didn't take into account the possibility that its proximity meant that he could use it. At the worst, he was looking for a fight. ah the prolifer has entered the chat
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 28, 2020 8:18:13 GMT
RNC Day 4 -
Well THAT was something else........a Michael Bay Hollywood looking production that somehow found room for David Dorn's widow (overwhelmingly sad), Ben Carson (earnest, but unconvincing), Carl & Marsha Mueller (devastating), Tom Cotton (dull), Ivanka Trump (energetic, glamorous!) .........and Alice Johnson - they can use her speech in campaign ads.
Trump's speech itself though was too long with some big moments, vicious and defiantly eyebrow raising at several points - in front of 2,000 friends and fans (almost zero masks!) - either makes this a tight Presidential race .........or just got him a bigger budget lifetime Fox TV show at least.
I have no clue how that played to America..........it was surreal.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2020 13:23:57 GMT
See, now I'm starting to get nervous. Nationally Biden still leads by around 8 points but his leads in battleground states have consistently been shrinking since his highpoints in June and July, especially in Florida. He didn't get a convention bump but Trump has. At this point Trump's best path barring cheating (which there will be, at least to some extent) is getting the electorate to forget about COVID and forget about and/or turn on BLM, and evidence is suggesting that both of those things are starting to happen (because people have short fuckin attention spans) with over two months until Nov. 3. of the nine battleground states, the following are favored to Trump according to FiveThirtyEight: Ohio Georgia Iowa(40 votes) favoring Biden: Florida Pennsylvania Wisconsin Minnesota(69 votes) Toss-ups: North Carolina, leans Trump Arizona, leans Biden (26 votes) Biden has some wiggle room but his lead in every single one of these states has been trending down, so some of the states currently favored for Biden might become toss-ups by November, and the current toss-ups might swing safely enough towards Trump. Now, if Biden wins those four states and Trump wins those six, that's still Biden's 69 to Trump's 66 (and that's just in the battleground states) but he has to maintain his lead in those states and he absolutely HAS to win Florida. the 270towin map is also concerning, because although Dems have far more safe votes than the GOP, the worrying numbers are those 91 toss-up electoral votes in the middle and the 66 leaning democrat votes. If, for the sake of argument, Trump takes every single one of those 91 toss-up votes and keeps all the red ones, that would give us a result of Biden's 278 to Trump's 260, a difference of only 18 points. And this is assuming that Trump doesn't steal any of the leaning blue states, which is possible with Biden's leads diminishing... Although (a little positive note) 270towin lists Florida as a toss-up state which means that Biden wouldn't actually have to win it in order to win the election with 278 points. Theoretically all he has to do is keep all the blue and leaning blue states (which includes Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania). Trump could win Florida and still lose the election. Provided that every state that went to Hillary in 2016 remains blue, literally all Biden has to do is flip MI, PA, and WI back to blue - all states that went red by less than 1% (seriously, only ~77,000 votes put this monster in the White House...). I mean, I was wrong in 2016, but I just can't see it happening again...
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Post by dazed on Aug 28, 2020 15:54:49 GMT
Trumps attacks on Biden are so much weaker than his attacks on Clinton. I’m interested in what the debates will be like. Calling Biden a socialist just isn’t a good campaign tactic for Trump.
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Post by Lord_Buscemi on Aug 28, 2020 18:02:09 GMT
anybody got the Vegas odds on pacinoyes defending that shooter in a thread in the next day or two The guy was an absolute idiot (carrying a weapon illegally, crossing state-lines), but at least he took out a pedo.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Aug 29, 2020 6:15:34 GMT
anybody got the Vegas odds on pacinoyes defending that shooter in a thread in the next day or two The guy was an absolute idiot (carrying a weapon illegally, crossing state-lines), but at least he took out a pedo. ive yet to see any convincing evidence there but willing to learn more
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erickeitel
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Post by erickeitel on Aug 29, 2020 15:01:49 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 31, 2020 19:50:13 GMT
FiveThirtyEight released a new detailed analysis today - Biden slight favorite currently - interesting way of assessing it and their particular models and different breakouts of the electoral map - Biden has 68 outcomes to win, Trump 32 and very few likely without Florida though "possible" - he can negate Florida by dominating elsewhere in a couple of these model outcomes. This is major election geek stuff: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 1, 2020 21:39:49 GMT
Curious is the events of the past 2 days are how this is going to go until the election - Biden came out on Monday (but took no questions and not today at all, and Trump today in Wisconsin, and New Hampshire the other day and Laura Ingraham last night and Pence in Minnesota already this week too. Is this how it's going to be Trump running around like a lunatic and Biden mostly in his basement? I'm not so sure ANY debates are going to happen tbh......strangest presidential campaign ever.........
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erickeitel
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Post by erickeitel on Sept 2, 2020 14:50:38 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 2, 2020 15:45:06 GMT
There are troubling signs now if you look close - Biden just up 3 in a Pa poll today (statistical dead heat), Trump ahead in Georgia and North Carolina yesterday. Biden hasn't been to Wisconsin in 2 YEARS (?)......wtf ...Trump full of coke and cheeseburgers has TWO events in NC today, Biden is at the opening of a school in Delaware with his wife Trump is in full triumphant swingin' dick mode like pacinoyes is when some wackjob wants to get into a sparring match with him on MAR (um) and Biden is still trying to find the condom .......let's go already....... www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
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erickeitel
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Post by erickeitel on Sept 2, 2020 16:33:23 GMT
There are troubling signs now if you look close - Biden just up 3 in a Pa poll today (statistical dead heat), Trump ahead in Georgia and North Carolina yesterday. Biden hasn't been to Wisconsin in 2 YEARS (?)......wtf ...Trump full of coke and cheeseburgers has TWO events in NC today, Biden is at the opening of a school in Delaware with his wife Trump is in full triumphant swingin' dick mode like pacinoyes is when some wackjob wants to get into a sparring match with him on MAR (um) and Biden is still trying to find the condom .......let's go already....... www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/I think "flicking dick" would be a more apt description, no?
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 2, 2020 16:57:38 GMT
There are troubling signs now if you look close - Biden just up 3 in a Pa poll today (statistical dead heat), Trump ahead in Georgia and North Carolina yesterday. Biden hasn't been to Wisconsin in 2 YEARS (?)......wtf ...Trump full of coke and cheeseburgers has TWO events in NC today, Biden is at the opening of a school in Delaware with his wife Trump is in full triumphant swingin' dick mode like pacinoyes is when some wackjob wants to get into a sparring match with him on MAR (um) and Biden is still trying to find the condom .......let's go already....... www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/Well this is good but that wife thing ...........still it's a start, a little more proactive and less reactive would be better but .......baby steps is ok. Biden and his wife Jill Biden "will hold a community meeting in Kenosha to bring together Americans to heal and address the challenges we face," and will make another stop in the city, his campaign said Wednesday.
www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/politics/joe-biden-to-visit-kenosha/index.html
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2020 13:50:44 GMT
First post-conventions Fox News polling: Arizona: Biden +9 North Carolina: Biden +4 Pennsylvania: Biden +3 Wisconsin: Biden +8
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 4, 2020 15:59:43 GMT
As of today ......Biden in the lead, but well ........the Democratic supporter in me wished he'd pick someone better as a VP candidate to help in the Midwest. She's given him nada that I can see. Battlegrounds Biden Trump Spread
Michigan 47.3 44.7 Biden +2.6 Pennsylvania 49.0 44.8 Biden +4.2 North Carolina 47.8 47.2 Biden +0.6 Florida 47.8 46.0 Biden +1.8 Wisconsin 48.5 44.5 Biden +4.0 Arizona 49.0 44.0 Biden +5.0www.realclearpolitics.com/
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 7, 2020 17:29:31 GMT
new nerdy commentary from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. Yeah I watched the whole 48-minute video, feels like I crossed a line highlights: 1. Electoral College still favors Trump. If Biden wins the popular vote by 2-3% he only has a 46% chance of winning the electoral college and the election. This is why his diminished lead in battleground/tipping point states should be concerning when paired with polling margins of error. The closer Trump tightens up the national poll, the more chance he has of winning the electoral college which already historically advantages the GOP candidate. Averages currently have Biden leading by 7.5 but between errors and Trump's ability to tighten the race these aren't safe numbers. If Biden wins the popular vote by 5 or more points he's statistically likely to win the electoral college but that's already within the 3-point margin of error. Unless Biden is leading the national polls by at least 9 points on election day, I'm not going to feel safe. 2. Silver dispels the myth of "shy Trump voters" in the polls. This one never made sense to me and it's insane that people use it as an argument. Maybe in 2016 because he was such a maverick with a tenuous relationship with the mainstream GOP but now the GOP has become synonymous with Trump's regime. In any case, there's also practically no empirical evidence of this theory according to Silver, so nothing to see there. If there are shy voters, they're shy Biden voters not shy Trump voters. Silver also implies that some polls that underestimated Trump in 2016 might be overcompensating for that in 2020, so it's entirely possible that Biden is performing better than the polls the showing. 3. State polls are not particularly reliable. Silver bemoans the lack of high-quality polls out of battleground states like Minnesota and hasn't yet reconciled Biden's polling averages from Wisconsin and Michigan with his diminished performance in Pennsylvania with the same demographics.... This is why I'm scared. Currently FiveThirtyEight's forecast has Wisconsin/Michigan/Minnesota as pretty safe for Biden (all over 70%) but that might be misleading if the polling data are unreliable. 4. House/senate forecast coming soon! Excited about this one. If dems can keep the house and flip the senate that would significantly impede a potential second Trump administration. Imagine what would have happened during impeachment if the senate had been blue and not just the house.
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