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Post by quetee on Jul 31, 2020 20:58:37 GMT
Exactly. What did I say earlier in this very thread, that Trump knows when to turn on the racist tears. Anyone who doubts Trump is a racist is a moron. This man used to put a C on black people's rental application and then deny them housing. He’s also empowered his base to act more openly racist in public. I know. An open invitation to be racist. Well, I prefer them that way, rather than the low-key ones. They are the ones you really gotta look out for cause they will use their power to keep you down.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2020 22:28:49 GMT
Former campaign advisor to Romney and Baby Bush calls Trump the "Yankee George Wallace" in this scathing op-ed. He says that Trump's Republican Party is "defined by racism and those who tolerate it."
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Post by quetee on Aug 3, 2020 3:37:17 GMT
Former campaign advisor to Romney and Baby Bush calls Trump the "Yankee George Wallace" in this scathing op-ed. He says that Trump's Republican Party is "defined by racism and those who tolerate it." What is so funny about the low-key people is that they cant handle it if someone calls them a racist. I had to file a complaint against this woman at my work and she made my life a living hell because she thought it was okay to be a racist but she just didn't want anyone to call her one. I think Trump is so delusional that he doesn't think he is a racist.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 6, 2020 18:47:40 GMT
historian Allan Lichtman who predicted every presidential race since 1984 calls 2020 for BidenBut it's worryingly close. Lichtman doesn't bother much with polls but bases his predictions on a system of 13 true-or-false "keys" he developed post-Gore (before Gore's loss Lichtman only predicted the popular vote). He's one of the few predictors who called 2016 for Trump with these keys. The idea is that if six or more of the keys are false, the incumbent loses. Trump's score against Biden is 6 true, 7 false. The CNBC link goes through each one of the keys and includes Lichtman's answer, and some of them seem debatable but hey, this guy hasn't been wrong since '84. Still not as reassuring as I would've hoped because Lichtman doesn't include other factors (misinformation, interference, suppression, etc--factors that we've already seen in some states most notably Georgia's June primary) and even with his system Biden's lead is almost negligible. One would have to trace Lichtman's predictions from 2004 (and retroactively back to '84) to determine how many other elections that he accurately predicted were this close. Honestly, now I'm just feeling more apprehensive. Trump has been a president of many firsts, and being the first to break a predictor's longstanding record wouldn't be his most significant. He's also set a new low bar for corruption and misinformation so I wouldn't put anything past him to win this election. Pollsters and predictors taking the democratic process for granted will miss that. also Trump's approval has stabilized and is rising. If he brings the national polls within six points of Biden's lead (do-able if this uptick continues) I'll be preparing for the worst.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 7, 2020 20:16:26 GMT
This is always good stuff and not so overtly partisan as to be distasteful - PBS is generally left-center but beats the mainstream alternatives.
September 22nd:
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 8, 2020 22:05:38 GMT
Trump awakens from his McDonald's Caloric Lethargy Slumber signs 4 Executive Orders today, pats himself on the back all but says Fnck you Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Party and to every state who he tells will have to pay 25% of Unemployment ......in the Trumpiest thing he's done since The State of The Union address. I wouldn't watch the whole thing below but the intro and at 9 minutes on - if you want to know when the campaign really started it's today he actually uses the words "we've had it" .......not sure any of this is legal, logical, possible, not sure he cares..........pass the fries.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2020 18:12:01 GMT
Let's make fascism and racism wrong again in November, okay?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 14, 2020 22:50:26 GMT
I was thinking that Trump needs a vaccine to be ready by November but this NPR poll makes me wonder if that's true at all, because it made me remember that millions of conservatives 1) don't think coronavirus is a big deal and 2) hate science generally. According to the poll less than half of GOP voters said they'd choose to be vaccinated if a vaccine becomes available. Anti-vax is IN baby.
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Post by morton on Aug 15, 2020 1:35:39 GMT
I was thinking that Trump needs a vaccine to be ready by November but this NPR poll makes me wonder if that's true at all, because it made me remember that millions of conservatives 1) don't think coronavirus is a big deal and 2) hate science generally. According to the poll less than half of GOP voters said they'd choose to be vaccinated if a vaccine becomes available. Anti-vax is IN baby. I guess there’s a silver lining that a vaccine won’t be ready by then, and I definitely don’t believe the Russians have almost done it. It is crazy how nuts people are though. People that I didn’t particularly think of as political before on my Facebook have revealed their true colors over the last few months by talking about how masks don’t work, and they won’t ever wear one. Or how Covid-19 is fake, or even if they believe, it’s not that serious because more people die from the flu and cold. Or another popular thing I keep seeing is how the statistics are all fake because hospitals get more money if they say someone died from the Coronavirus. Then in the past month, it’s been all about how the US government is going to make everyone get a vaccine against the virus, and there’s no way they’ll do it. I’m certainly no rocket scientist or brain surgeon, and definitely have moments of stupidity, but I just can’t since these were people that were “normal” whatever that means, and had common sense for the most part before all of this. I know I should just delete my Facebook account, but so much of my family is on there that I feel I have to keep it, or be doomed to keep answering why I deleted it at every get together.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 17, 2020 11:19:16 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 17, 2020 17:38:28 GMT
There are always a couple Trump-leaning anomalies in these polls and not just the Fox News ones (he's been solidly behind Biden in a lot of those). That particular CNN poll did worry me a bit but less so when I looked up the CNN poll average which still has Biden in a 9-point lead. Post-Kamala most of the polls have been on Biden's side. FiveThirtyEight is practically all I use for polls and their average still has Biden up by 8.3 points and over 50%.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 20, 2020 19:47:56 GMT
Trump's approval is gradually rising but some good news is that Biden still leads 8+ points in the national poll average AND more importantly congressional pressure has forced DeJoy to back down on his pre-election USPS sabotage following lawsuit threats from democratic DAs across the country (at least one has already been filed that I know of). Not a Trumpian move from DeJoy at all to back down like this making me think he's more a useful idiot than active collaborator. Maybe he really was only interested in improving efficiency lol, and if cutbacks can improve Trump's odds, hey... that's just two birds with one stone, right Louis? www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/post-office-dejoy/index.html
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 22, 2020 12:59:21 GMT
"Silence means consent" or "silence means approval" - this is one of the more questionable lines of dialog in our US political debate (I rank this with "Do you want to die on that hill?" for eyebrow raising things people say). It came up a whole lot from the Left towards the Right and police brutality a few months ago and comes up a lot even now on a bunch of issues.....usually from the Left but from the Right too. Well, the Republican convention starts next week and this week at the DNC - no mention of riots in our cities, Antifa.......of China.....of Iran .......several other things. I liked a lot of the DNC but that was a whole lot that was playing it safe and while that may be enough to win in November.......an opening exists if Trump can be disciplined ......which he most likely can't ....
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 22, 2020 18:17:12 GMT
Well, the Republican convention starts next week and this week at the DNC - no mention of riots in our cities, Antifa.......of China.....of Iran .......several other things. I liked a lot of the DNC but that was a whole lot that was playing it safe and while that may be enough to win in November.......an opening exists if Trump can be disciplined ......which he most likely can't .... Antifa is just a rightwing talking point at this point, literally no serious person is talking about or thinking about them. You hear about them a lot from AM radio talking heads but there's no evidence of them being linked to violence in any of these protests and no one currently charged has any links to antifa. They don't seem to have any kind of organizational leadership. It's just a boogeyman used by Tucker and Rush and the rest to stir up white resentment against civil rights and black/brown people protesting in general (even when they do it peacefully). Fake news. The most sensible way for the dems to approach the riots in this climate is preemptive prevention. Ice-T on Maron's podcast had a great example that you will appreciate, pacinoyes: if you're watching a game and your wife comes in and says "babe I want to show you something," and you say "ok, one second" and keep watching, and then she comes back five minutes later saying "can you come here right now I want to show you something!" and you're like "ok, coming" and keep watching, and this continues for an hour until she comes in and throws something through the TV to get your attention. Riots are tantrums. The way to prevent riots is to keep them from starting up in the first place.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 22, 2020 18:42:17 GMT
at this point i'm just going to assume "toss-up" states are going to Trump. Texas definitely, Ohio probably, North Carolina likely. But Biden's still maintaining solid leads in Michigan (7.8), Pennsylvania (6.1) and Wisconsin (6.9) and Florida (6.0). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/Maybe some more positive news here: the most recent polls for the senate races in a few of these battleground states are favoring the blue candidates: by 9 points in MI (Peters vs James), 19 points in AZ (Kelly vs. incumbent McSally), 9 points in NC (Cunnigham vs. incumbent Tillis), 8-18 points in Colorado (Hickenlooper vs incumbent Gardner), 5-7 points in Maine (Gideon vs. incumbent Collins), 2 points in GA (Ossoff vs. incumbent Purdue). If the dems can flip the senate the pressure on Trump will be much stronger in the event he wins. On the other hand, think of possibilities if the house, senate, and president were all blue.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 25, 2020 4:28:34 GMT
Well RNC night 1 is over and that was .......um, something anyway.
Lowlights - Kimberly Guilfoyle who is a meme waiting to happen and gave a shrieking, frighteningly overcaffeinated speech; Donald Jr. - dorky nervous in front of no crowd (!); Matt Gaetz was sort of jokey/comic and it felt out of place.
Highlights - Tim Scott and Nikki Haley were actually better speakers than any current political figures from either party so far - these were like the Michelle Obama/Jill Biden speeches but less purely emotional and somewhat improbably more substantive.
Show was way slicker than the DNC - looked very reality TV .......no celebs really or entertainment that I saw......basically substituted real people so way more policy heavy than the DNC was - but maybe too much ........sort of seemed like 4 nights of conventions in 1.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 26, 2020 12:30:48 GMT
RNC convention - day 2 and I think this was the best night in any convention and if Trump wins this election (big if) he may have done it tonight or at least follows this RNC day 2 outline to win. Nobody f'd up their speech, every speech was good or on point, Melania was great, big issues: abortion, China, Iran, prison reform, cancel culture, women's rights, race relations, religion, riots, economy. Agree with them or not and a lot of this was was a cynical show tbh - this was at least coherent, sellable stuff. This looked like a Democratic convention in the past actually more than a typical Republican one. I usually really love Rahm Emanuel's analysis but he is fond of saying "this is 9 point race - does any of this move that number, no." - well I'm not sure he's right that it even is a 9 point race, new polls out (see link below) in battleground states and this is obviously tighter and this is Dem leaning poll too (CNBC) - we may already be "margin of error" everywhere it matters now........ and Trump will live in/campaign non-stop in Florida if he has to (loses Florida, he's toast though). Biden/Kamala need to go out starting next week....and the debates looming large maybe - although virtual debates you'd think will be a less impactful thing than in person. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2020 13:25:23 GMT
at this point i'm just going to assume "toss-up" states are going to Trump. Texas definitely, Ohio probably, North Carolina likely. But Biden's still maintaining solid leads in Michigan (7.8), Pennsylvania (6.1) and Wisconsin (6.9) and Florida (6.0). \ No matter who wins, it will probably be the closest margin in the country... It is the definition of the urban/rural divide in terms of party support. Keeping my fingers crossed for a Biden/Harris victory!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2020 13:31:10 GMT
Yeah... It makes perfect sense that something decided on 50 fucking years ago would be their main issue.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 26, 2020 13:55:48 GMT
Yeah... It makes perfect sense that something decided on 50 fucking years ago would be their main issue. Yeah, um no.........not really - do we consider gun ownership and all its nuances "decided" ........do we consider Washington D.C. not being an f'n state "decided"...........do we consider the electoral college deserving to exist at all "decided"? Do we not address those things? I didn't say it was their "main issue" at all - I said it was a big issue and they pounced on it. I mean that was a funny joke post I guess ............. and I'm pro-choice too but that's hardly the point.......... to millions of Americans who will never vote for a candidate who is pro-choice it was laying out there to be addressed. They addressed it........
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2020 14:00:33 GMT
Yeah... It makes perfect sense that something decided on 50 fucking years ago would be their main issue. Yeah, um no.........not really - do we consider gun ownership and all its nuances "decided" ........do we consider Washington D.C. not being an f'n state "decided"...........do we consider the electoral college deserving to exist at all "decided"? Do we not address those things? Obviously not, but those issues weren't ruled upon in landmark Supreme Court cases, were they? The bottom line is that if the Republican Party of today had its way, what has been precedent for American women for 50 years would be erased.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 26, 2020 14:20:52 GMT
Yeah, um no.........not really - do we consider gun ownership and all its nuances "decided" ........do we consider Washington D.C. not being an f'n state "decided"...........do we consider the electoral college deserving to exist at all "decided"? Do we not address those things? Obviously not, but those issues weren't ruled upon in landmark Supreme Court cases, were they?
Obviously not but they ruled on Dred Scott (1857) and look how that turned for the Supreme Court - I guess we can all be thankful that doesn't exist right? Advocates for any issue never think anything is "decided" - particularly Supreme Court cases actually.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2020 14:25:19 GMT
Obviously not, but those issues weren't ruled upon in landmark Supreme Court cases, were they?
Obviously not but they ruled on Dred Scott (1857) and look how that turned for the Supreme Court - I guess we can all be thankful that doesn't exist right? Advocates for any issue never think anything is "decided" - particularly Supreme Court cases actually. So you're comparing Roe v. Wade to Dred Scott now... Because the attitudes and beliefs of Americans didn't change at all between the mid-1800s and the 1970s, did they? I think it's best if you and I just stick to film discussion from here on out. I really can't wrap my head around the way you think about politics.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 26, 2020 14:41:11 GMT
Obviously not but they ruled on Dred Scott (1857) and look how that turned for the Supreme Court - I guess we can all be thankful that doesn't exist right? Advocates for any issue never think anything is "decided" - particularly Supreme Court cases actually. So you're comparing Roe v. Wade to Dred Scott now... Because the attitudes and beliefs of Americans didn't change at all between the mid-1800s and the 1970s, did they? I think it's best if you and I just stick to film discussion from here on out. I really can't wrap my head around the way you think about politics. Let me see if I got this straight - I made a post about the RNC day 2 ..........YOU ignored the post, replied to my post with a partisan joke about one aspect that YOU took out of context, then YOU brought up the Supreme Court .........and now YOU are saying for the point I'm making to be valid I have to think they are equivalents? No. I agree with you on abortion and on Dred Scott ....... that isn't the point however - the point is people who want to overthrow Roe vs. Wade have Supreme Court example(s) of "bad decisions" (in their opinion) that they can refer to for overthrowing it. This was addressed at the RNC (rightly or wrongly). What exactly is so hard to "wrap your head around" anyway? Seems pretty clear to me ........
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Post by urbanpatrician on Aug 26, 2020 19:38:35 GMT
Pam Bondi for president.
Melania Trump killed it last night too. She's actually a really good first lady no matter how much you don't like Trump.
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