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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 8, 2020 19:19:34 GMT
a weird poll outlier from right-leaning Rasmussen has Biden up by 8 points in Wisconsin. What to make of this... Rasmussen leans HEAVILY right. To the point that they near-consistently report Trump's approval rating at 50% or higher and reported Trump and Biden as even in PA and only have a C+ score from FiveThirtyEight because of how bias has skewed their results in the past... and yet, here they have a poll representing 1000 likely voters in Wisconsin that heavily favors (probably by too much) Biden. Interesting.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 8, 2020 19:23:02 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 8, 2020 19:35:19 GMT
a weird poll outlier from right-leaning Rasmussen has Biden up by 8 points in Wisconsin. What to make of this... Rasmussen leans HEAVILY right. To the point that they near-consistently report Trump's approval rating at 50% or higher and reported Trump and Biden as even in PA and only have a C+ score from FiveThirtyEight because of how bias has skewed their results in the past... and yet, here they have a poll representing 1000 likely voters in Wisconsin that heavily favors (probably by too much) Biden. Interesting. Rasmussen was the only major polling firm to get 2016 right afaik and not just because they lean right ........Wisconsin should not look that much different from Pa in theory and Biden - in theory - has to win Pa because it's his de facto home state (really Delaware but...).......basically I'll go out on a limb and say if Biden loses Pa he loses period - that's the exact same scenario that Al Gore had when he couldn't carry his home state of Tennessee and that cost him the presidency. Really curious about Minnesota which Trump is trying to flip Republican in ages ......I don't know how FiveThirtyEight can rank them a "C+" when they are accurate over FiveThirtyEight's predictions in 2016 at least thehill.com/media/306721-rasmussen-calls-itself-most-accurate-pollster-of-2016
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 8, 2020 20:06:45 GMT
The C+ grade comes from analysis of 722 polls ( as of May 2020) which lists them as having an average error of 5.3 points and a Republican leaning bias of 1.5 points, both of which were significantly higher at the beginning of the decade (they were wrong about the 2010 midterms by almost 6 points with a leaning bias towards GOP by almost 4 points). They were huuuugely wrong about the 2018 midterms too predicting the GOP would win the generic ballot by 1 point when in fact they lost by 9 points (that's a 10-point error). They're a divisive group in the polling world and often seen as an outlier. For example, they exclusively target landlines so responses are likely to skew older. Accuracy of approval rating data isn't something that can be quantifiably judged, but Rasmussen has consistently reported Trump's approval as higher than it probably is, and you'd expect those kinds of numbers with an older base of respondents. Some of these are concerns for other polling groups too but Rasmussen doesn't seem to adjust for them enough. But yeah, they were right about in 2016. That's something...
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 9, 2020 16:00:03 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 10, 2020 5:57:17 GMT
two Marist College polls (A+ ranked) out of PA have Biden up by 8 points from a sample of 1039 likely voters and 9 points from a sample of 771. The Morning Consult poll (B/C ranked) with double the sample has that lead down to 5 points. Biden's PA average is now at 5 points. This is the race to watch. The likeliest tipping point state with its whopping 20 votes. On the other hand, Biden seems to be gradually extending his lead in Arizona and making some headway Texas.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 11, 2020 21:15:40 GMT
not Biden vs. Trump related per se, but this FiveThirtyEight interview with Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) about Ohio's election process is pretty interesting & educational for those wanting to play something in the background. Items touched on are the misinformation surrounding absentee voting (LaRose as a Republican is pretty diplomatic about his answers but also adamant that voter fraud in general is rare and he isn't expecting much if any this cycle), and foreign interference and how he's trying to confront it, and how COVID-19 is affecting the process generally, among other things. I imagine FiveThirtyEight's viewers skew left as do a lot of their staff, and a lot of these questions feels targeted to cater to leftist interests/concerns, but LaRose's answers are extremely clear and thoughtful. I don't know, it's just kinda nice to see a liberal interviewing a Republican and have a fruitful & relatively bipartisan discussion. You get the sense that these kinds of exchanges are rare in our media-saturated world driven by clickbaity headlines but maybe they don't have to be. also, i've only been following these podcasts for a couple weeks now but i already have a crush on this Galen Druke fellow. Nerdy AND cute, hmmm
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Post by jimmalone on Sept 12, 2020 17:43:01 GMT
a weird poll outlier from right-leaning Rasmussen has Biden up by 8 points in Wisconsin. What to make of this... Rasmussen leans HEAVILY right. To the point that they near-consistently report Trump's approval rating at 50% or higher and reported Trump and Biden as even in PA and only have a C+ score from FiveThirtyEight because of how bias has skewed their results in the past... and yet, here they have a poll representing 1000 likely voters in Wisconsin that heavily favors (probably by too much) Biden. Interesting. basically I'll go out on a limb and say if Biden loses Pa he loses period - that's the exact same scenario that Al Gore had when he couldn't carry his home state of Tennessee and that cost him the presidency. I also think that Pennsylvania will be very important, not cause it's Biden's homestate, but simply with its 20 electoral votes it can shift the race quite a lot. But I turn your saying around a bit. I say if Biden wins Pennsylvania he wins overall.
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Post by quetee on Sept 12, 2020 18:35:43 GMT
Never underestimate a bonafide cheater.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 16, 2020 2:12:21 GMT
the states to watch: North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, these are the states currently predicted for Biden that Trump HAS to win: North Carolina (52%) - veeeeeeeeery close, within less than a point and slightly favored for Biden Florida (60%) - Slightly favored for Biden with a projected popular vote win of two points Arizona (67%) - Slightly favored for Bdien with a projected 3.5-point lead in the popular vote Pennsylvania (75%) - the tipping point state. Biden is projected to win by 4.5 points Beneath Pennsylvania Biden's odds improve considerably in other battleground states Wisconsin (79%), Minnesota (83%), and Michigan (86%), so that means that if the projections are accurate and Biden wins all those midwest states, Trump would need to win every single one of the states mentioned above (currently favored for Biden) in order to win the electoral college. North Carolina and Florida are definite possibilities but his chances aren't as good in Arizona or Pennsylvania and he needs to win all four without losing Ohio, Georgia or Texas. Important to note that Trump's numbers in Ohio, Georgia and Texas should have him worried. Polling has him only up by 1 point in all of those states. Of course, he could very well end up winning all of them but the headline is that Biden has a better chance at winning Ohio or Georgia than Trump does of winning Wisconsin or Minnesota.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 17, 2020 17:11:49 GMT
I believe this is the tightest by these polls - whatever their worth - it's been so far.....: Battlegrounds Biden Trump Spread
Florida 48.7 47.1 Biden +1.6 Pennsylvania 49.0 44.7 Biden +4.3 Michigan 47.8 43.6 Biden +4.2 Wisconsin 50.1 43.4 Biden +6.7 North Carolina 47.6 46.7 Biden +0.9 Arizona 49.2 45.0 Biden +4.2
www.realclearpolitics.com/
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 19, 2020 20:44:18 GMT
FiveThirtyEight on potential effects of RBG's death on the election / future of American law. All conjecture at this point obviously, mostly abstract stuff. We need polling on this. But I wouldn't put it past a GOP senate under McConnell (the most shameless POS in American politics) to push this through and revert American law for a generation back to the pre-civil rights era. Supreme Court has been out of touch with popular opinion in recent years anyways so you really have to wonder if a 6-3 conservative advantage with sweeping civil & sex rights rollbacks would precipitate unprecedented violent conflict. In other news, state polls have remained fairly stable for Biden. Most shift has been in Florida with veeery slight Trump-leaning movement in Nevada and New Hampshire too. Biden remains the underdog in Ohio and Texas but both races are within two points. Meanwhile, he remains strong in Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and maintains a very slight but stable advantage in North Carolina (where the dems are poised to flip a senate seat). FiveThirtyEight now has Biden's odds at 77% as opposed to 70% when the model first went live (I think in June ??). The uptick being mostly credited to diminishing uncertainty as election approaches and the fact that battleground state polls (with the exception of Florida) have remained fairly stable in Biden's favor. honestly RBG's death makes the presidency less important in the short term. If Trump appoints someone in following weeks it wouldn't matter if Biden wins unless Dems could retake the Senate (an uphill battle), but even if that happens it would feel like a Pyrrhic victory. Supreme Court has so much influence on the nation. The idea that a simple conservative majority delivered by one fucking individual could impact the lives of millions citizens so acutely would be hard to swallow in any case, regardless of what happens in November. scary fucking times...
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 20, 2020 11:08:27 GMT
Hmmmmmm.......I wonder if you told Donald Trump that he'd lose the 2020 election, but he would get a 3rd Supreme Court appointment in 4 years, appoint ~300 Federal judges and be beloved by ~40%+ of the voting populace while maybe keeping the Senate too...... if he'd consider that a job well-done? Probably not, narcissists never like to lose anything after all .........but....... Whatever happens the Democratic Party, a cadre of spineless vipers themselves - have already resorted to their usual infantile losering behavior, wanting to fight the Merrick Garland battle again in 2020 and arguing "hypocrisy" (in politics? I'm shocked! ). Supreme Court appointments always benefits/energizes/mobilizes Conservatives - it's that thing I always say, the Conservative position is simpler and less nuanced than Progressive positions so easier to verbalize/dumb down when articulated.....but keep your eyes on the Presidential campaign prize before you find that those " Never Trumpers" suddenly turn into "Well......Never Trumpers .........except if it helps the Court I mean".
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 20, 2020 20:10:30 GMT
Whatever happens the Democratic Party, a cadre of spineless vipers themselves - have already resorted to their usual infantile losering behavior, wanting to fight the Merrick Garland battle again in 2020 and arguing "hypocrisy" (in politics? I'm shocked! ). Dems shouldn't be shocked, it's really the kind of expedient cheating they should be used to from the GOP, but it's potentially a useful strategy in the electorate to point out the bald-faced hypocrisy of the senators who've fallen into line with McConnell. It goes so much farther beyond backpedaling or your average case of flip-flop, it's a literal 180 degree turn to what they were saying just four years ago and it makes every single one of them an abject liar. The senate races are where we're going to see this played out. McSally's in a heated race in Arizona and just came out in favor of McConnell, so that's probably good news for Mark Kelly who can use this to his advantage. He's already up in the polls. I'm frustrated that dems are always reacting but that's not really their fault, it's the political environment where senate skews rural and electoral college skews GOP for the same reason. And it's not like some of these conversations haven't been a long time coming... Supreme Court wields a ridiculous amount of power over millions of citizens and that kind of influence is too strong for nine people regardless of their political bias. This conversation has been bubbling up for years, the possibility of a democratically-illegitimate conservative-stacked court just accelerated it. Also, appointing a justice (who will serve for an entire generation) this close to an election is just unprecedented and unfair. It would've been a bad idea in 2016 too but Garland was stonewalled for eleven fucking months... Honestly I don't have a problem with what the Dems are threatening. GOP has been at war with democracy for some time now and have used whatever loopholes and justifications (or straight-up lying) to increase their political power at the expense of the people. It's about time Dems put on their big boy pants and take the gloves off and take whatever they can get from those fuckers.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 20, 2020 20:20:10 GMT
it's a truism that conservatives are more energized by supreme nominees than dems but that's almost definitely not the case this year. A Marquette Law poll that was wrapped up three days before Ginsburg's death found that 59% of Biden-supporters considered the next supreme court nominee to be an important issue as opposed to 51% of Trump-supporters. And that was before Ginsburg's death. Dems are going to be more up in arms than ever over the Supreme Court. It's going to drive up turnout for Biden and for Dems in the senate races if they make this an issue (and they should).
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 20, 2020 21:40:43 GMT
Whatever happens the Democratic Party, a cadre of spineless vipers themselves - have already resorted to their usual infantile losering behavior, wanting to fight the Merrick Garland battle again in 2020 and arguing "hypocrisy" (in politics? I'm shocked! ). Also, appointing a justice (who will serve for an entire generation) this close to an election is just unprecedented and unfair. I don't agree tbh - it is not really "unfair" it's perfectly within the rules (as was with Garland) and it's going to happen again. I just don't like that word "unfair" - it has no place I think.......I mean it sucks yes, but I posted way earlier this year that Republicans weren't going to forget that impeachment in an election year either (also unprecedented) and if the Democrats didn't change the "60" rule this wouldn't be happening now either since McConnell has used it against them. I posted a poll once on would this era be remembered as the Trump era or the McConnell era.......I think in the short term yeah '16-'20 was the Trump era of course but long term/looking back I'm not so sure...........McConnell is a Machiavellian historic figure.......whereas Trump may merely be seen as a short term aberration/doofus (if he loses in Nov at least).
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Sept 20, 2020 21:59:47 GMT
Perhaps the most important reform the next American president could make (apart from ending the Electoral College, which is nearly impossible) would be to institute either a term limit or a mandatory retirement age for judges in the Supreme Court, which happens virtually everywhere else in the world (some countries have both).
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 22, 2020 16:21:12 GMT
Ok, so that's done basically ....now Democrats let the nominee pass and don't be stupid and I say that especially with a Catholic, mother of 7 - that Kavanaugh hard resistance stuff won't fly here.......be smart......
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2020 16:44:28 GMT
It's not about what Americans want. It's about what the GOP wants.
It's amazing to me that people who claim to love America can have such contempt for, you know, Americans.
Also, by Mitt Romney's own account, Donald Trump shouldn't even be President. But let's definitely confirm his SCOTUS nominee to a lifetime appointment.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 22, 2020 20:33:59 GMT
I expected Romney to have integrity about this, guess not. This is probably a bad thing for Republicans in the Prez/senate races and potentially unsustainable in the long run. Expect the GOP to bleed even more women than they already are, even more young people and even more moderates in the future if a conservative court makes any radical changes. RBG was insanely popular. We may also expect the infamous liberal young vote to finally get off its ass, at least somewhat.
Dems need to be smart and not overplay their hand too quickly in the event of a senate takeover with unpopular institutional changes. They can't be pushovers but they also need to tread lightly--the GOP could be laying the groundwork for its own demise here.
On the flipside, in the case that Trump wins again and GOP maintains lead in the senate, it's time to fuck off to Canada.
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Post by Sharbs on Sept 22, 2020 21:19:27 GMT
I expected Romney to have integrity about this, guess not. This is probably a bad thing for Republicans in the Prez/senate races and potentially unsustainable in the long run. Expect the GOP to bleed even more women than they already are, even more young people and even more moderates in the future if a conservative court makes any radical changes. RBG was insanely popular. We may also expect the infamous liberal young vote to finally get off its ass, at least somewhat. Dems need to be smart and not overplay their hand too quickly in the event of a senate takeover with unpopular institutional changes. They can't be pushovers but they also need to tread lightly--the GOP could be laying the groundwork for its own demise here. On the flipside, in the case that Trump wins again and GOP maintains lead in the senate, it's time to fuck off to Canada.many o' knocks, but they've changed the locks.
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Film Socialism
Based
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Post by Film Socialism on Sept 23, 2020 15:45:27 GMT
u guys should start betting your trump family that biden will win and then place an equal bet on trump on a betting site at 2:1 odds. free $ in november
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 24, 2020 22:44:56 GMT
huge news for Biden... FiveThirtyEight's forecast now has Ohio in blue territory. It's veeeery, very close, within half a point so we're talking pure toss-up at this point but that's still significant movement for Biden. This is the first time since the beginning of July that Ohio's been predicted for the dems. A new Fox News poll has Biden up by 5 points in the state
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 29, 2020 23:57:30 GMT
It's crazy how many Trump-leaning states (in the conventional wisdom) are so competitive. The focus has been so often on what Trump can steal from Biden (Florida, NC, Arizona, Pennsylvania, etc.), but Georgia and Iowa are potentially in Biden's grasp with Trump leading in polling averages by less than a point in both. Two recent polls from Georgia actually had Biden up by 3 points, bringing the FiveThirtyEight average to just 0.2 points. Trump's chances look worse and worse frankly. Not only does he have to hold Georgia and Iowa, he also needs to take Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, AND Pennsylvania to get the electoral votes... all states currently leaning Biden, albeit three of them by very thin margins (but then his margins in Iowa and Georgia are just as thin--he could conceivably take two or three of these states but Biden has just as strong a chance of taking Georgia or Iowa). Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nevada are off the table for Trump. Biden has a better chance of winning in Texas than Trump does of taking any of those states.
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 30, 2020 6:25:24 GMT
I find it astonishing that after the covid mismanagement and his grade-school antics in the past 4 years, Biden is still merely maintaining a moderate lead in polls and Trump still has a non-insignificant chance to win. It's even more astonishing considering this is one of the oldest democracies in the world. It's truly very sad to watch.
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