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Post by Pavan on Nov 11, 2020 13:33:50 GMT
Poor Amy. First The Woman in the Window gets delayed (which looks horrible anyway) and now this.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2020 13:36:07 GMT
Nothing in the whole flat world would make me happier. How about if COVID completely evaporated AND you received a 50 million dollar check? Or is it still Tutar getting a nomination?
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2020 13:40:45 GMT
Call me crazy (won't be offended, won't cancel you, no worries) but I still think Close will win for this The role is just too much catnip for AMPAS members to ignore: notable makeup + mannerisms + illness + shouting + matriarch. And then the career factor. And then her recent loss which some voters are bound to remember in her favor. And then the barren year factor. Even if this movie will do down in history as one of the worst-reviewed ones to win an acting Oscar, I still think it's gonna happen. At least as of now. There's the old thing about 'critics isn't the same as voters' which is true, but I think that's especially important when a movie gets more negatively reviewed because of some political agenda of the reviewers. In those cases the Oscar attention can actually be completely on the other side like with "Joker" or "Green Book", and although it's clear that "Hillbilly Elegy" is not gonna be as big a hit as those movies, I still think that people in the Academy can certainly respond to one particular performance in it despite the negative and, let's be fair, politically charged reviews. I mean, some critics are blasting the movie for staying apolitical...which is insane and which I think will work in its favor with viewers. Hillbilly Elegy's reviews are considerably worse than those of the films you mentioned though. Like we're talking 69 v 59 v fucking 38 on Metacritic. Also people like Ali, Phoenix and Malek who didn't have films with the best of reviews still had the added benefit of their films getting nominated for BP, which sure as shit isn't happening for HE.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2020 13:49:06 GMT
Call me crazy (won't be offended, won't cancel you, no worries) but I still think Close will win for this The role is just too much catnip for AMPAS members to ignore: notable makeup + mannerisms + illness + shouting + matriarch. And then the career factor. And then her recent loss which some voters are bound to remember in her favor. And then the barren year factor. Even if this movie will do down in history as one of the worst-reviewed ones to win an acting Oscar, I still think it's gonna happen. At least as of now. There's the old thing about 'critics isn't the same as voters' which is true, but I think that's especially important when a movie gets more negatively reviewed because of some political agenda of the reviewers. In those cases the Oscar attention can actually be completely on the other side like with "Joker" or "Green Book", and although it's clear that "Hillbilly Elegy" is not gonna be as big a hit as those movies, I still think that people in the Academy can certainly respond to one particular performance in it despite the negative and, let's be fair, politically charged reviews. I mean, some critics are blasting the movie for staying apolitical...which is insane and which I think will work in its favor with viewers. Yeah, as much as I want to, I can't rule her out just yet because if ever there was a year where an I Am Sam-level turkey gets lauded with an Oscar, it's in a year with generally sparse competition as this one. But while I think that Close's role is catnip, I think she's shown a massive vulnerability in that her film might be so unpalatable that voters might not even bother with it. This isn't like Joker or Green Book because despite the flak those films copped, they were at least well-regarded generally with critics and audiences alike. The critics are drubbing this film so fucking hard that it's unlikely that Close will gain momentum with them, and if she's facing off against a singular critical sweeper, even her overdue narrative wouldn't be enough. And as I enumerated elsewhere, there's a very real chance she could lose SAG just because they rewarded her two years ago and might seek to look elsewhere, rather than attempt another shot at anointing her with the big prize only to fall short later on. Colman is favored to win BAFTA (which at this stage might as well be renamed the Olivia Colman Award) with a plum role that is as far removed from her Oscar-winning turn as you can get (and that sort of versatility might win voters over), and Seyfried's role is equally as baity as Close's (for mainly different reasons) and doesn't have the baggage that Hillbilly Elegy has. Hillbilly Elegy is getting blasted from all sides right now, in a way that a legitimate Oscar contender hasn't in years, if not decades. What little support there is for it is almost entirely drowned out by the lambasting. This isn't merely after-the-fact reactionary criticism like Green Book or Joker had, where they were initially praised and won prizes before people really starting digging their heels against them. And yes, critical consensus means fuck-all when compared to commercial audiences (although Netflix's model blurs things a bit more because how can we verify how well it does with viewers), but can you imagine the PR trail this film is going to have to go through? That would be a more interesting movie to watch, to be honest.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 11, 2020 15:10:36 GMT
Call me crazy (won't be offended, won't cancel you, no worries) but I still think Close will win for this The role is just too much catnip for AMPAS members to ignore: notable makeup + mannerisms + illness + shouting + matriarch. And then the career factor. And then her recent loss which some voters are bound to remember in her favor. And then the barren year factor. Even if this movie will do down in history as one of the worst-reviewed ones to win an acting Oscar, I still think it's gonna happen. At least as of now. There's the old thing about 'critics isn't the same as voters' which is true, but I think that's especially important when a movie gets more negatively reviewed because of some political agenda of the reviewers. In those cases the Oscar attention can actually be completely on the other side like with "Joker" or "Green Book", and although it's clear that "Hillbilly Elegy" is not gonna be as big a hit as those movies, I still think that people in the Academy can certainly respond to one particular performance in it despite the negative and, let's be fair, politically charged reviews. I mean, some critics are blasting the movie for staying apolitical...which is insane and which I think will work in its favor with viewers. Hillbilly Elegy's reviews are considerably worse than those of the films you mentioned though. Like we're talking 69 v 59 v fucking 38 on Metacritic. Also people like Ali, Phoenix and Malek who didn't have films with the best of reviews still had the added benefit of their films getting nominated for BP, which sure as shit isn't happening for HE. All of this is true, but I can't help but think that AMPAS voters may simply rally behind Close and propel her towards a win regardless of the quality of the film because of the sympathy towards her and because the role itself sure has all the right ingredients. Then again, it may be a case of SUCH obvious Oscar bait that it actually ends up working against itself.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 11, 2020 15:14:07 GMT
Call me crazy (won't be offended, won't cancel you, no worries) but I still think Close will win for this The role is just too much catnip for AMPAS members to ignore: notable makeup + mannerisms + illness + shouting + matriarch. And then the career factor. And then her recent loss which some voters are bound to remember in her favor. And then the barren year factor. Even if this movie will do down in history as one of the worst-reviewed ones to win an acting Oscar, I still think it's gonna happen. At least as of now. There's the old thing about 'critics isn't the same as voters' which is true, but I think that's especially important when a movie gets more negatively reviewed because of some political agenda of the reviewers. In those cases the Oscar attention can actually be completely on the other side like with "Joker" or "Green Book", and although it's clear that "Hillbilly Elegy" is not gonna be as big a hit as those movies, I still think that people in the Academy can certainly respond to one particular performance in it despite the negative and, let's be fair, politically charged reviews. I mean, some critics are blasting the movie for staying apolitical...which is insane and which I think will work in its favor with viewers. Yeah, as much as I want to, I can't rule her out just yet because if ever there was a year where an I Am Sam-level turkey gets lauded with an Oscar, it's in a year with generally sparse competition as this one. But while I think that Close's role is catnip, I think she's shown a massive vulnerability in that her film might be so unpalatable that voters might not even bother with it. This isn't like Joker or Green Book because despite the flak those films copped, they were at least well-regarded generally with critics and audiences alike. The critics are drubbing this film so fucking hard that it's unlikely that Close will gain momentum with them, and if she's facing off against a singular critical sweeper, even her overdue narrative wouldn't be enough. And as I enumerated elsewhere, there's a very real chance she could lose SAG just because they rewarded her two years ago and might seek to look elsewhere, rather than attempt another shot at anointing her with the big prize only to fall short later on. Colman is favored to win BAFTA (which at this stage might as well be renamed the Olivia Colman Award) with a plum role that is as far removed from her Oscar-winning turn as you can get (and that sort of versatility might win voters over), and Seyfried's role is equally as baity as Close's (for mainly different reasons) and doesn't have the baggage that Hillbilly Elegy has. Hillbilly Elegy is getting blasted from all sides right now, in a way that a legitimate Oscar contender hasn't in years, if not decades. What little support there is for it is almost entirely drowned out by the lambasting. This isn't merely after-the-fact reactionary criticism like Green Book or Joker had, where they were initially praised and won prizes before people really starting digging their heels against them. And yes, critical consensus means fuck-all when compared to commercial audiences (although Netflix's model blurs things a bit more because how can we verify how well it does with viewers), but can you imagine the PR trail this film is going to have to go through? That would be a more interesting movie to watch, to be honest. Damn, "I Am Sam" is a very good potential comparison - critically lambasted movie with one nomination for an extremely baity performance! Actually Close's status seems even stronger since plenty of people thought Penn was bad whereas the general sentiment about Close seems to be much more positive. We're in for a weird Oscar year with all the pandemic stuff and the lack of contenders so that's why I think she may still very well win. Of course I'm not saying it's a lock or anything but I can't quite write her off as of yet in my mind.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2020 15:21:27 GMT
Damn, "I Am Sam" is a very good potential comparison - critically lambasted movie with one nomination for an extremely baity performance! Actually Close's status seems even stronger since plenty of people thought Penn was bad whereas the general sentiment about Close seems to be much more positive. We're in for a weird Oscar year with all the pandemic stuff and the lack of contenders so that's why I think she may still very well win. Of course I'm not saying it's a lock or anything but I can't quite write her off as of yet in my mind. The flip-side of that, though, is that I Am Sam would be a career-ruiner if it bowed in 2020. Hillbilly Elegy is opening with the taint of its reviews overwhelming everything, including its actors' narratives, and it's going to be an uphill climb to right that ship. I'm struggling to think of any movie that started out on the back foot like this and came out ahead in the end.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 11, 2020 15:31:56 GMT
Damn, "I Am Sam" is a very good potential comparison - critically lambasted movie with one nomination for an extremely baity performance! Actually Close's status seems even stronger since plenty of people thought Penn was bad whereas the general sentiment about Close seems to be much more positive. We're in for a weird Oscar year with all the pandemic stuff and the lack of contenders so that's why I think she may still very well win. Of course I'm not saying it's a lock or anything but I can't quite write her off as of yet in my mind. The flip-side of that, though, is that I Am Sam would be a career-ruiner if it bowed in 2020. Hillbilly Elegy is opening with the taint of its reviews overwhelming everything, including its actors' narratives, and it's going to be an uphill climb to right that ship. I'm struggling to think of any movie that started out on the back foot like this and came out ahead in the end. Very true. Netflix needs to mount a campaign focusing exclusively on Close, almost erasing the thought of the movie around her. The cheesier (thinking of Melissa Leo), the better.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2020 15:40:55 GMT
The flip-side of that, though, is that I Am Sam would be a career-ruiner if it bowed in 2020. Hillbilly Elegy is opening with the taint of its reviews overwhelming everything, including its actors' narratives, and it's going to be an uphill climb to right that ship. I'm struggling to think of any movie that started out on the back foot like this and came out ahead in the end. Very true. Netflix needs to mount a campaign focusing exclusively on Close, almost erasing the thought of the movie around her. The cheesier (thinking of Melissa Leo), the better. Exactly, but that would necessitate Netflix actually being laser-like in their focus on campaigning, which they've not been able to do. Laura Dern won on the back of a strong critical showing in a film the Academy adored (and her closest competition throughout the year was snubbed in the end), and Roma was the most critically raved film of its year (and still couldn't clinch the top prize). Netflix seems content to just huck everything at the wall and hope something sticks. They can't do that with Close and hope it's enough. And the thing is, I don't think they'll do it anyway because they've got Seyfried. They can trot Close out with her dog and show her how adorable she is and how due she is and how much people respect her, but a more experienced studio did that two years ago and it didn't work. Seyfried and Colman have the raves, and depending on who else muscles into the race, it could be that they just decide to kick the Close can down the road yet again.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 11, 2020 20:46:37 GMT
I don't think this has been mentioned in this trainwreck of a thread but if Close is nodded and loses she sets the dubious record for females (Page won on her 8th nod) and ties O'Toole at 0 for 8 of course.
I don't know if this happened in just that last day but Close dropped out the Gold Derby (gag) top spot and iirc she was number 1 ....
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 11, 2020 20:57:05 GMT
I don't know if this happened in just that last day but Close dropped out the Gold Derby (gag) top spot and iirc she was number 1 .... Checked it only a few days ago. She was #1.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Nov 12, 2020 19:43:48 GMT
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Nov 24, 2020 23:27:12 GMT
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 2, 2020 12:37:32 GMT
Yeah, Best Actress is deceptively a tough field to crack, whereas we're struggling to come up with viable Supporting Actress contenders. That's always been Close's biggest advantage here. Colman and Seyfried are likely locked. If Close starts to look like a waste of a spot in supporting actress, I think there are enough potential alternatives floating out there . Kidman or Kerry Washington if The Prom reviews don't suck. Zengel for News Of The World. Ronan for Ammonite. Natasha Lyonne for The United States Vs Billie Holiday. Ellen Burstyn for Pieces Of Woman. Maria Bakalova for Borat 2.I don't think Close is safe at all for a nod with reviews like that. She's not Meryl. There are enough viable alternatives to kick her out of the final 5. We can write off many of these names at this point. Ronan, Kidman and Washington aren’t going to happen. Natasha Lyonne has no award buzz atm. Bakalova does, but her getting in over Glenn Close would go against everything I know about the Academy.. Beyond Colman, Seyfried and probably Burstyn, this category is open. I can’t be entirely sure because I’ve never tracked a contender in a film this hated critically, but my gut feeling is that she hangs on and sneaks in. As for the win, I feel like that’s insane to consider, but I don’t see a world where they nominate her and make her lose to Colman a mere two years after the first time. Seyfried is the frontrunner, but a weak one due to the nature of the role. My read is that the nomination will be in question, but if it happens, the Academy will be tempted to just give her the Oscar. She 100% has the role as well as the narrative, and it would be a no-brainer is reviews weren’t so awful.
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