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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 15, 2018 20:45:53 GMT
I can't imagine Close winning with this field. It's such a small movie with very little hype. She's not even winning critics awards. Other "career" wins felt much stronger than this.
It will come down to Coleman and Gaga. I'm not sure SAG goes for Gaga in her first role and Coleman should win BAFTA so she looks like the likely winner. Plus, Cooper is probably winning Actor.
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Post by stephen on Dec 15, 2018 20:50:35 GMT
To be fair, Hudson's competition were two virtual unknowns in (mostly) foreign language performances, an eleven-year-old girl, and a previous winner who had won two years earlier. And Dreamgirls was not only a huge deal back then (to the point that people were stunned it missed Best Picture), but Effie White was a star-making role regardless of who was playing her. Plus it was a supporting role, so perhaps there wasn't a rush to reward someone over her. Not saying that Gaga can't win, of course. She obviously can. And it's not even her debut (she did win a Golden Globe for acting a few years ago for American Horror Story, didn't she?). But the question is whether or not they want to give her two Oscars in the same night. Her name is front-and-center on the song (more than Cooper's is on the film as a producer), so knowing that she's pretty much locked in to win one Oscar, will they want to give her a second in a bigger category? If they do, it's because they really love her. I’ve made it clear that I really don’t think that the Academy members are going to be thinking about the Song Oscars while they are voting for Best Actress. I don’t think they are nearly as obsessed with these things as we are. And you bring up competition. I don’t want to get into all the other contenders but let’s stick to Close here assuming she is her toughest competition. She has received so substantial critics push in a film hardly anybody has seen that has no other Oscar prospects. All she really has right now is the fact that she has never won and like I said if the Academy cared that much about that she would have won for Albert Knobbs over another actress that already had two. Well, I don't assume Close is her toughest competition, partly for the reasons you state. Colman and Blunt have a lot more going for them than a presumed "overdue" narrative (which will likely materialize more for Amy Adams, who has recency in her favor). Gaga will have her supporters and they will be legion, but I think she'll need to straight-up sweep the industry prizes (BFCA, Globes, SAG, BAFTA).
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 15, 2018 20:52:04 GMT
To be fair, Hudson's competition were two virtual unknowns in (mostly) foreign language performances, an eleven-year-old girl, and a previous winner who had won two years earlier. And Dreamgirls was not only a huge deal back then (to the point that people were stunned it missed Best Picture), but Effie White was a star-making role regardless of who was playing her. Plus it was a supporting role, so perhaps there wasn't a rush to reward someone over her. Not saying that Gaga can't win, of course. She obviously can. And it's not even her debut (she did win a Golden Globe for acting a few years ago for American Horror Story, didn't she?). But the question is whether or not they want to give her two Oscars in the same night. Her name is front-and-center on the song (more than Cooper's is on the film as a producer), so knowing that she's pretty much locked in to win one Oscar, will they want to give her a second in a bigger category? If they do, it's because they really love her. I’ve made it clear that I really don’t think that the Academy members are going to be thinking about the Song Oscars while they are voting for Best Actress. I don’t think they are nearly as obsessed with these things as we are. And you bring up competition. I don’t want to get into all the other contenders but let’s stick to Close here assuming she is her toughest competition. She has received so substantial critics push in a film hardly anybody has seen that has no other Oscar prospects. All she really has right now is the fact that she has never won and like I said if the Academy cared that much about that she would have won for Albert Knobbs over another actress that already had two. It worked for Julianne Moore. Yes, she won more critics awards, but we keep repeating that critics awards don't matter when it comes to the Oscars. Close only needs to be nominated, and the narrative will come by itself. Comparing this race to 2011 is misleading, since that was the Academy's long-awaited opportunity to give another Oscar to the actress they think is the greatest of all time. Glenn Close is more like Geraldine Page.
If they give Gaga two Oscars - and they know they would, especially with the obsessive FYCs existing nowadays, with the endless campaigning by her and Cooper etc. - it's because they madly fell in love with her.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 20:56:18 GMT
I’ve made it clear that I really don’t think that the Academy members are going to be thinking about the Song Oscars while they are voting for Best Actress. I don’t think they are nearly as obsessed with these things as we are. And you bring up competition. I don’t want to get into all the other contenders but let’s stick to Close here assuming she is her toughest competition. She has received so substantial critics push in a film hardly anybody has seen that has no other Oscar prospects. All she really has right now is the fact that she has never won and like I said if the Academy cared that much about that she would have won for Albert Knobbs over another actress that already had two. Well, I don't assume Close is her toughest competition, partly for the reasons you state. Colman and Blunt have a lot more going for them than a presumed "overdue" narrative (which will likely materialize more for Amy Adams, who has recency in her favor). Gaga will have her supporters and they will be legion, but I think she'll need to straight-up sweep the industry prizes (BFCA, Globes, SAG, BAFTA). I’m kind of wait and see on Coleman and Blunt. I think their chances tie together with their respective films overall performances. So we will see how they do.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 20:59:40 GMT
I’ve made it clear that I really don’t think that the Academy members are going to be thinking about the Song Oscars while they are voting for Best Actress. I don’t think they are nearly as obsessed with these things as we are. And you bring up competition. I don’t want to get into all the other contenders but let’s stick to Close here assuming she is her toughest competition. She has received so substantial critics push in a film hardly anybody has seen that has no other Oscar prospects. All she really has right now is the fact that she has never won and like I said if the Academy cared that much about that she would have won for Albert Knobbs over another actress that already had two. It worked for Julianne Moore. Yes, she won more critics awards, but we keep repeating that critics awards don't matter when it comes to the Oscars. Close only needs to be nominated, and the narrative will come by itself. Comparing this race to 2011 is misleading, since that was the Academy's long-awaited opportunity to give another Oscar to the actress they think is the greatest of all time. Glenn Close is more like Geraldine Page.
If they give Gaga two Oscars - and they know they would, especially with the obsessive FYCs existing nowadays, with the endless campaigning by her and Cooper etc. - it's because they madly fell in love with her.
As I said in my edit above. Gaga having one of the biggest songs of the year helps her more than anything. The endless exposure and pop culture relevance is a form of campaigning. The song and the movie are huge and will help since the Academy will want to be a part of that. Especially since ratings are dipping. Moore wasn’t against one of the most famous people in the world in a best picture front runner and like you said she actually was a critics darling. Meryl didn’t need another. She already had two.
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avnermoriarti
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Friends say I’ve changed. They’re right.
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Post by avnermoriarti on Dec 15, 2018 21:25:08 GMT
Damn, fingers crossed Colman wins SAG and BAFTA, it's all she needs but I'm already getting to the idea of Gaga going all the way, I can picture her suffering face, tears and mousy voice everytime she goes to the podium. It's gonna be insufferable
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Post by sirjeremy on Dec 15, 2018 21:33:00 GMT
To be fair, Hudson's competition were two virtual unknowns in (mostly) foreign language performances, an eleven-year-old girl, and a previous winner who had won two years earlier. And Dreamgirls was not only a huge deal back then (to the point that people were stunned it missed Best Picture), but Effie White was a star-making role regardless of who was playing her. Plus it was a supporting role, so perhaps there wasn't a rush to reward someone over her. Not saying that Gaga can't win, of course. She obviously can. And it's not even her debut (she did win a Golden Globe for acting a few years ago for American Horror Story, didn't she?). But the question is whether or not they want to give her two Oscars in the same night. Her name is front-and-center on the song (more than Cooper's is on the film as a producer), so knowing that she's pretty much locked in to win one Oscar, will they want to give her a second in a bigger category? If they do, it's because they really love her. I’ve made it clear that I really don’t think that the Academy members are going to be thinking about the Song Oscars while they are voting for Best Actress. I don’t think they are nearly as obsessed with these things as we are. And you bring up competition. I don’t want to get into all the other contenders but let’s stick to Close here assuming she is her toughest competition. She has received so substantial critics push in a film hardly anybody has seen that has no other Oscar prospects. All she really has right now is the fact that she has never won and like I said if the Academy cared that much about that she would have won for Albert Knobbs over another actress that already had two. Streep had lost twelve times prior to 2011, was campaigning and so was joint favourite with Davis, who was in a Best Picture nominee box office hit. Close could never have overcome all that with her small film.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 21:38:09 GMT
I’ve made it clear that I really don’t think that the Academy members are going to be thinking about the Song Oscars while they are voting for Best Actress. I don’t think they are nearly as obsessed with these things as we are. And you bring up competition. I don’t want to get into all the other contenders but let’s stick to Close here assuming she is her toughest competition. She has received so substantial critics push in a film hardly anybody has seen that has no other Oscar prospects. All she really has right now is the fact that she has never won and like I said if the Academy cared that much about that she would have won for Albert Knobbs over another actress that already had two. Streep had lost twelve times prior to 2011, was campaigning and so was joint favourite with Davis, who was in a Best Picture nominee box office hit. Close could never have overcome all that with her small film. So that just means it’s probably that she couldn’t even make the top two that year despite being overdue and at least Albert Knobbs was able to get another major nomination which is more than The Wife will likely be able to say.
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Post by sirjeremy on Dec 15, 2018 21:43:44 GMT
Streep had lost twelve times prior to 2011, was campaigning and so was joint favourite with Davis, who was in a Best Picture nominee box office hit. Close could never have overcome all that with her small film. So that just means it’s probably that she couldn’t even make the top two that year despite being overdue. Yes. I doubt she even came third that year. So comparing that race to this year's is misleading because so far, she doesn't have a mountain to climb in terms of her competition, as long as she starts campaigning strongly next month.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 21:50:07 GMT
So that just means it’s probably that she couldn’t even make the top two that year despite being overdue. Yes. I doubt she even came third that year. So comparing that race to this year's is misleading because so far, she doesn't have a mountain to climb in terms of her competition, as long as she starts campaigning strongly next month. And I don’t think her competition is lesser than that year. The fact that they thought so little of the competition that they gave Meryl her 3rd for a little seen movie when they had other better chances before that is telling. i mean now she is against not one but two actresses in BP contenders and an actress playing Mary fucking Poppins
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Post by sirjeremy on Dec 15, 2018 22:32:20 GMT
Yes. I doubt she even came third that year. So comparing that race to this year's is misleading because so far, she doesn't have a mountain to climb in terms of her competition, as long as she starts campaigning strongly next month. And I don’t think her competition is lesser than that year. The fact that they thought so little of the competition that they gave Meryl her 3rd for a little seen movie when they had other better chances before that is telling. i mean now she is against not one but two actresses in BP contenders and an actress playing Mary fucking Poppins Gaga's film is favoured to win in two other acting categories. Colman is the least known of the five likely nominees in her category, and will probably be the least known of the 20 eventual acting nominees. Blunt will be a first-time nominee playing a lightweight role in a lightweight film. Close's competition isn't as strong as you think, not yet anyway.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 22:36:52 GMT
And I don’t think her competition is lesser than that year. The fact that they thought so little of the competition that they gave Meryl her 3rd for a little seen movie when they had other better chances before that is telling. i mean now she is against not one but two actresses in BP contenders and an actress playing Mary fucking Poppins Gaga's film is favoured to win in two other acting categories. Colman is the least known of the five likely nominees in her category, and will probably be the least known of the 20 eventual acting nominees. Blunt will be a first-time nominee playing a lightweight role in a lightweight film. Close's competition isn't as strong as you think, not yet anyway. And close is in a movie nobody saw and is getting no love elsewhere. Also films get multiple acting wins all the time. More love for the film she is in only helps her.
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 16, 2018 2:02:06 GMT
I'm confident that it'll be Colman. We're talking about Gaga winning for sure like the Oscars are being voted today, but they're not. We still have two months ahead of us, and honestly, the ASIB fatigue is starting.
I'm not saying this as a hater, which I'm not: I had Gaga on #9 or #10 in my personal line-up until very recently, and I really dug the movie. But the "100 people" speech going viral is - in my opinion - one of the first signs of people getting tired of this movie, exactly because it got too big too soon. Romances about straight, white couples just aren't bulletproof, they're the kind of movie that people get sick of and start doubting as soon as the hype slows down. See, if La La Land - which was a juggernaut - couldn't win BP, are we really supposed to believe that both Gaga and Cooper can win two individual prizes for this movie?
Everything many people have been saying - "Gaga is already winning Best Song, they won't rush to give her an acting Oscar", "her personality is going to be divisive" - has been gaining traction among the public now that it's been two months ASIB was released and is no longer the shiny new toy. Honestly, I think it already peaked and now is the time that Roma, The Favourite, Vice and even Green Book rise.
(On a sidenote, you can't compare Gaga winning BA to Jennifer Hudson. Hudson was virtually unknown and she won the supporting category - completely different story. It's Cher and Streisand that are the precedent)
This decade, two kinds of actresses have won the Oscar: the young starlets with indie/prestige cred (Larson, Stone, Lawrence) and the revered older actresses (Streep, Blanchett, Moore and McDormand). Portman is somewhere in-between, as she was in the same age range as the youngsters when she won, but she had been working just as long as many of the veterans - that was the crowning moment of Hollywood's golden child.
Let's assume the 5 nominees will be Colman, Close, Gaga, Blunt and Colette/McCarthy. Close is in a very good position: her movie is fine (not many people are high on The Wife, but I liked it) and she's terrific in it, and this could be her year. She fits the older veteran mold as Streep, McDormand and Moore. I don't think there is enough passion for this to happen, though - she lost NBR, the Gothams, NYFCC, prizes that her stans were claiming would be "easy wins".
I think Blunt reminds me a bit of the Portman situation 'cause that would be the coronation moment for a young, but mature actress who's been working for some time. One could also she's as of now in the same position in her career as Winslet and Bullock were in their respective years. Also, she's beloved by actors (hello, SAG) and brits. Mary Poppins reviews are just okay, but it's an iconic part and Blunt's actually getting lots of praise. I think she has a real, strong shot and we should watch out for her.
Colman isn't very famous, but she has a lot of prestige and is playing a queen. Her whole persona just screams "Serious, Respected Actress", which is something the Academy really responds to. I don't think her lack of fame will hurt her, just like it didn't hurt McDormand in 1996, Emma Thompson and Kathy Bates: this brand of actresses hasn't won the Big Gold in while (I'd say Cotillard was the last time an unknown just showed and won everyone over), but they're bound to come back any time soon. Add Fox Searchlight and strong BP contender in the mix, and BOOM, there's your winner. I think Colman will win because she'll be viewed as a cool choice (but not "out there" like Collette), a respectable and fresh actress and is in a movie that won't gather any backlash.
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flaiky
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Post by flaiky on Dec 19, 2018 22:41:06 GMT
Her whole persona just screams "Serious, Respected Actress", which is something the Academy really responds to. Heh, it's a bit mad that this is her international reputation. She was famous in the UK for years just for appearing in TV comedies. I'm still getting used to the idea of her as a 'serious' actress, so to speak (I've always thought she's fantastic, but in a really grounded, unpretentious way).
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 20, 2018 1:12:41 GMT
Gaga
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 20, 2018 6:17:30 GMT
Her whole persona just screams "Serious, Respected Actress", which is something the Academy really responds to. Heh, it's a bit mad that this is her international reputation. She was famous in the UK for years just for appearing in TV comedies. I'm still getting used to the idea of her as a 'serious' actress, so to speak (I've always thought she's fantastic, but in a really grounded, unpretentious way). She's british, so she can tell a fart joke with her accent and it'll sound like the most elegant thing in the world.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Dec 20, 2018 10:08:18 GMT
Alex Forrest
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