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Post by ingmarhepburn on Dec 15, 2018 3:56:10 GMT
I'm predicting Colman, but Close has a decent chance too. I'd be very surprised if Gaga wins.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 15, 2018 4:34:03 GMT
I still think it's Colman. Fox Searchlight knows that her Crown shooting schedule, which wraps early next month, has kept her from campaigning in full force, but she has still been out there, accepting awards and giving interviews. FSL has planned accordingly; they let Weisz and Stone carry the full force of the campaign in the front half, but I guarantee you that the moment that Colman is freed up, they will be trotting her out everywhere. It's actually the perfect strategy, as it keeps people from undergoing fatigue the way they might with Gaga (how many more times can people hear that "there can be 100 people in a room . . ." quote?). Gaga's already assured a Best Song Oscar that night, so voters might feel a "welcome to the club" Best Actress nomination is enough for her. I don't think Close will be able to take her down at the Globes or win at BAFTA. SAG will tell the tale for sure, but I still think Colman wins there because it's a louder, showier role than damn near any of them. She probably takes BAFTA, and it's just a question of where the Comedy Globe goes, because if anyone spoils the race at this point, I think it's going to be Emily Blunt. Hello everyone. I got burned out on last year with all the awards going to the same 4 actors, and I had other stuff going on. At this point last year, I think I was going with Saoirse Ronan based on her critics' awards, being on her third nomination, and the fact that she fit the winner mold more even though she was playing a teenager, so I'll probably end up being wrong again. Right now I think it's between Lady Gaga and Colman, but again I think it could be Blunt just based on the fact that she's more like who usually wins lately. She's relatively young still, well liked in the industry, and having a banner year with two big hit films. The only cons are that her role and film might be considered too slight compared to the other nominees, and it might be difficult to win for the same role that Julie Andrews won for. Although Mary Poppins Returns reviews were worse than I expected, it can make up for it at the box office, and if Blunt does manage to land double noms like at SAG, I think she'll win somewhere. It could be supporting, but I expect Adams to likely sweep there since the Globes will probably award her, then the Critics Choice and others will follow after that. I really loved Colman, but she seems so atypical a winner. I know that Frances McDormand did last year too in some ways, but McDormand was a former winner whose pretty beloved. Plus, all the other nominees had cons too. I think Hawkins was hurt because she's still not that well known. Ronan, as I said earlier, was hurt by her role being too unconventional to award. Robbie's film was already winning Best Supporting Actress, and without a Best Picture nomination, it probably wouldn't have won two acting awards. And Streep of course had no chance at all for the win despite starting off strong at NBR.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2018 4:45:37 GMT
I still think it's Colman. Fox Searchlight knows that her Crown shooting schedule, which wraps early next month, has kept her from campaigning in full force, but she has still been out there, accepting awards and giving interviews. FSL has planned accordingly; they let Weisz and Stone carry the full force of the campaign in the front half, but I guarantee you that the moment that Colman is freed up, they will be trotting her out everywhere. It's actually the perfect strategy, as it keeps people from undergoing fatigue the way they might with Gaga (how many more times can people hear that "there can be 100 people in a room . . ." quote?). Gaga's already assured a Best Song Oscar that night, so voters might feel a "welcome to the club" Best Actress nomination is enough for her. I don't think Close will be able to take her down at the Globes or win at BAFTA. SAG will tell the tale for sure, but I still think Colman wins there because it's a louder, showier role than damn near any of them. She probably takes BAFTA, and it's just a question of where the Comedy Globe goes, because if anyone spoils the race at this point, I think it's going to be Emily Blunt. Hello everyone. I got burned out on last year with all the awards going to the same 4 actors, and I had other stuff going on. At this point last year, I think I was going with Saoirse Ronan based on her critics' awards, being on her third nomination, and the fact that she fit the winner mold more even though she was playing a teenager, so I'll probably end up being wrong again. Right now I think it's between Lady Gaga and Colman, but again I think it could be Blunt just based on the fact that she's more like who usually wins lately. She's relatively young still, well liked in the industry, and having a banner year with two big hit films. The only cons are that her role and film might be considered too slight compared to the other nominees, and it might be difficult to win for the same role that Julie Andrews won for. Although Mary Poppins Returns reviews were worse than I expected, it can make up for it at the box office, and if Blunt does manage to land double noms like at SAG, I think she'll win somewhere. It could be supporting, but I expect Adams to likely sweep there since the Globes will probably award her, then the Critics Choice and others will follow after that. I really loved Colman, but she seems so atypical a winner. I know that Frances McDormand did last year too in some ways, but McDormand was a former winner whose pretty beloved. Plus, all the other nominees had cons too. I think Hawkins was hurt because she's still not that well known. Ronan, as I said earlier, was hurt by her role being too unconventional to award. Robbie's film was already winning Best Supporting Actress, and without a Best Picture nomination, it probably wouldn't have won two acting awards. And Streep of course had no chance at all for the win despite starting off strong at NBR. welcome back bruh
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 15, 2018 5:02:16 GMT
Thanks.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 15, 2018 9:27:27 GMT
So you really think they'll give Gaga TWO Oscars on the same night for her screen debut? When there will be Glenn Close, aka the Deborah Kerr of our time, nominated alongside her? Yep. They won’t care about the song Oscar. Also if they cared so much about Close having an Oscar they would have given her one for Albert Knobbs instead they went with someone who already had two. I mean you brought up Deborah Kerr. How did that work out for her? Kerr always lost to legendary actresses (Bergman, De Havilland, Hayward, Taylor) or to legendary performances (Hepburn in Roman Holiday). She never lost to someone at her screen debut who will most likely get another Oscar that same night. If they don't want to give it to her, I'd rather they snubbed her altogether rather than make her lose to Gaga of all people.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 15, 2018 14:28:51 GMT
I think it's going to go between Gaga and Colman. Both are in Best Picture nominees. I would Gaga for now. Stay with the safer, more Oscar-friendly film.
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Dec 15, 2018 14:38:10 GMT
As much as I would love it to be Colman,it's going to be Gaga, which is fine.I am dreading her acceptance speech though.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 15, 2018 14:57:16 GMT
morton Glad to see you're back.
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Post by MsMovieStar on Dec 15, 2018 15:18:26 GMT
Is that a question? Ms Movie Star of course...
Oh honey, I love you!
It should be me, shouldn't it?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 17:11:47 GMT
Yep. They won’t care about the song Oscar. Also if they cared so much about Close having an Oscar they would have given her one for Albert Knobbs instead they went with someone who already had two. I mean you brought up Deborah Kerr. How did that work out for her? Kerr always lost to legendary actresses (Bergman, De Havilland, Hayward, Taylor) or to legendary performances (Hepburn in Roman Holiday). She never lost to someone at her screen debut who will most likely get another Oscar that same night. If they don't want to give it to her, I'd rather they snubbed her altogether rather than make her lose to Gaga of all people. Well it isn’t about what you’d prefer, isn’t it? You aren’t voting. Also Hepburn’s performance wasn’t legendary at the time. That takes years to happen.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 15, 2018 17:57:53 GMT
Kerr always lost to legendary actresses (Bergman, De Havilland, Hayward, Taylor) or to legendary performances (Hepburn in Roman Holiday). She never lost to someone at her screen debut who will most likely get another Oscar that same night. If they don't want to give it to her, I'd rather they snubbed her altogether rather than make her lose to Gaga of all people. Well it isn’t about what you’d prefer, isn’t it? You aren’t voting. Also Hepburn’s performance wasn’t legendary at the time. That takes years to happen. So the circumstance asks: is Gaga's performance bound to be as legendary as Hepburn's in Roman Holiday? Or Julie Andrews's in Mary Poppins (another screen debut)? Those were star-making performances of two of the most popular actresses of all time.
Of course I may be very well wrong, but I'll believe two-times Academy Award winner Lady Gaga when I see it.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 15, 2018 18:00:31 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2018 18:26:53 GMT
I agree that it looks like an exciting race at the moment. Close is my current prediction, unless Gaga takes both Globe and SAG.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 18:33:58 GMT
Well it isn’t about what you’d prefer, isn’t it? You aren’t voting. Also Hepburn’s performance wasn’t legendary at the time. That takes years to happen. So the circumstance asks: is Gaga's performance bound to be as legendary as Hepburn's in Roman Holiday? Or Julie Andrews's in Mary Poppins (another screen debut)? Those were star-making performances of two of the most popular actresses of all time.
Of course I may be very well wrong, but I'll believe two-times Academy Award winner Lady Gaga when I see it.
No it probably isn’t going to be but that’s irrelevant. Nobody wins an Oscar because there performance is already “legendary”. I mean they gave an Oscar to Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side. People couldn’t accept “Oscar Winner Sandra Bullock at the time either. You’ve already made it clear this is more about what you want to happen than anything and that’s how you get disappointed. This season reminds me of when everybody here couldn’t accept that Redmayne could win for Theory of Everything. They were making up scenerios about Keaton’s “narrative” and not looking at the kind of performances that the academy likes to reward.
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Dec 15, 2018 18:38:07 GMT
Is that a question? Ms Movie Star of course...
Oh honey, I love you!
It should be me, shouldn't it?
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Post by quetee on Dec 15, 2018 18:44:12 GMT
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 15, 2018 19:00:44 GMT
So the circumstance asks: is Gaga's performance bound to be as legendary as Hepburn's in Roman Holiday? Or Julie Andrews's in Mary Poppins (another screen debut)? Those were star-making performances of two of the most popular actresses of all time.
Of course I may be very well wrong, but I'll believe two-times Academy Award winner Lady Gaga when I see it.
No it probably isn’t going to be but that’s irrelevant. Nobody wins an Oscar because there performance is already “legendary”. I mean they gave an Oscar to Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side. People couldn’t accept “Oscar Winner Sandra Bullock at the time either. You’ve already made it clear this is more about what you want to happen than anything and that’s how you get disappointed. This season reminds me of when everybody here couldn’t accept that Redmayne could win for Theory of Everything. They were making up scenerios about Keaton’s “narrative” and not looking at the kind of performances that the academy likes to reward. Of course I want Close to win, that doesn't mean that's clouding my judgement. And Sandra Bullock is not Lady Gaga.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 19:10:56 GMT
No it probably isn’t going to be but that’s irrelevant. Nobody wins an Oscar because there performance is already “legendary”. I mean they gave an Oscar to Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side. People couldn’t accept “Oscar Winner Sandra Bullock at the time either. You’ve already made it clear this is more about what you want to happen than anything and that’s how you get disappointed. This season reminds me of when everybody here couldn’t accept that Redmayne could win for Theory of Everything. They were making up scenerios about Keaton’s “narrative” and not looking at the kind of performances that the academy likes to reward. Of course I want Close to win, that doesn't mean that's clouding my judgement. And Sandra Bullock is not Lady Gaga. Nobody thinks their judgement is clouded. I was following the Oscars at the time The Blind Side came out and people were reacting far more harshly to the idea of Bullock having an Oscar than people are to Gaga now. Gaga has a reputation as a singer. (And singers win Oscars all the time) but Bullock had the reputation as a bad actress. I remember one guy on IMDB said he would leave the board if Bullock was even NOMINATED.
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Dec 15, 2018 19:34:37 GMT
I'm a pessimist and a cynic so I figure Gaga will win it in a cakewalk.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 15, 2018 20:12:52 GMT
Of course I want Close to win, that doesn't mean that's clouding my judgement. And Sandra Bullock is not Lady Gaga. Nobody thinks their judgement is clouded. I was following the Oscars at the time The Blind Side came out and people were reacting far more harshly to the idea of Bullock having an Oscar than people are to Gaga now. Gaga has a reputation as a singer. (And singers win Oscars all the time) but Bullock had the reputation as a bad actress. I remember one guy on IMDB said he would leave the board if Bullock was even NOMINATED. The point is that Bullock had been working for decades, making hundreds of millions of bucks for that industry and she had starred in a Best Picture and SAG Ensemble winner. It made a lot of sense for the industry to reward her in light of all that. Not saying I agree - totally unrelated, I honestly prefer Gaga's performance to Bullock's - but it made sense. Gaga is a pop star, and it's true that pop stars have won before, but Cher was already established as an actress (Best Actress winner at Cannes), not at her first performance ( Zeb31 I know what you mean, but that was a cameo). They would seriously have to go crazy for A Star Is Born to go that far, and I'm not talking about snubbing Close again, I'm speaking in general. Two awards in one night is something I would expect from the Globes, and I'm not sure even they're gonna.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 20:23:58 GMT
Nobody thinks their judgement is clouded. I was following the Oscars at the time The Blind Side came out and people were reacting far more harshly to the idea of Bullock having an Oscar than people are to Gaga now. Gaga has a reputation as a singer. (And singers win Oscars all the time) but Bullock had the reputation as a bad actress. I remember one guy on IMDB said he would leave the board if Bullock was even NOMINATED. The point is that Bullock had been working for decades, making hundreds of millions of bucks for that industry and she had starred in a Best Picture and SAG Ensemble winner. It made a lot of sense for the industry to reward her in light of all that. Not saying I agree - totally unrelated, I honestly prefer Gaga's performance to Bullock's - but it made sense. Gaga is a pop star, and it's true that pop stars have won before, but Cher was already established as an actress (Best Actress winner at Cannes), not at her first performance ( Zeb31 I know what you mean, but that was a cameo). They would seriously have to go crazy for A Star Is Born to go that far, and I'm not talking about snubbing Close again, I'm speaking in general. Two awards in one night is something I would expect from the Globes, and I'm not sure even they're gonna. You keep acting like giving an Oscar to a singer is such a crazy concept. They gave an Oscar to Jennifer Hudson. At least Gaga already has a Globe for acting and is an a BP front runner. Also like I said they don’t give a shit about Song Oscars. Just because you find someone having two Oscars hard to stomach doesn’t mean the Academy gives a shit. Also I was there. People were way more irate about the idea of Sandra winning than they are about Gaga
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Post by stephen on Dec 15, 2018 20:31:33 GMT
The point is that Bullock had been working for decades, making hundreds of millions of bucks for that industry and she had starred in a Best Picture and SAG Ensemble winner. It made a lot of sense for the industry to reward her in light of all that. Not saying I agree - totally unrelated, I honestly prefer Gaga's performance to Bullock's - but it made sense. Gaga is a pop star, and it's true that pop stars have won before, but Cher was already established as an actress (Best Actress winner at Cannes), not at her first performance ( Zeb31 I know what you mean, but that was a cameo). They would seriously have to go crazy for A Star Is Born to go that far, and I'm not talking about snubbing Close again, I'm speaking in general. Two awards in one night is something I would expect from the Globes, and I'm not sure even they're gonna. You keep acting like giving an Oscar to a singer is such a crazy concept. They gave an Oscar to Jennifer Hudson. At least Gaga already has a Globe for acting and is an a BP front runner. Also like I said they don’t give a shit about Song Oscars. Just because you find someone having two Oscars hard to stomach doesn’t mean the Academy gives a shit. To be fair, Hudson's competition were two virtual unknowns in (mostly) foreign language performances, an eleven-year-old girl, and a previous winner who had won two years earlier. And Dreamgirls was not only a huge deal back then (to the point that people were stunned it missed Best Picture), but Effie White was a star-making role regardless of who was playing her. Plus it was a supporting role, so perhaps there wasn't a rush to reward someone over her. Not saying that Gaga can't win, of course. She obviously can. And it's not even her debut (she did win a Golden Globe for acting a few years ago for American Horror Story, didn't she?). But the question is whether or not they want to give her two Oscars in the same night. Her name is front-and-center on the song (more than Cooper's is on the film as a producer), so knowing that she's pretty much locked in to win one Oscar, will they want to give her a second in a bigger category? If they do, it's because they really love her.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 15, 2018 20:42:37 GMT
The point is that Bullock had been working for decades, making hundreds of millions of bucks for that industry and she had starred in a Best Picture and SAG Ensemble winner. It made a lot of sense for the industry to reward her in light of all that. Not saying I agree - totally unrelated, I honestly prefer Gaga's performance to Bullock's - but it made sense. Gaga is a pop star, and it's true that pop stars have won before, but Cher was already established as an actress (Best Actress winner at Cannes), not at her first performance ( Zeb31 I know what you mean, but that was a cameo). They would seriously have to go crazy for A Star Is Born to go that far, and I'm not talking about snubbing Close again, I'm speaking in general. Two awards in one night is something I would expect from the Globes, and I'm not sure even they're gonna. You keep acting like giving an Oscar to a singer is such a crazy concept. They gave an Oscar to Jennifer Hudson. At least Gaga already has a Globe for acting and is an a BP front runner. Also like I said they don’t give a shit about Song Oscars. Just because you find someone having two Oscars hard to stomach doesn’t mean the Academy gives a shit. Also I was there. People were way more irate about the idea of Sandra winning than they are about Gaga You keep misinterpreting. They can give her the 2 Oscars for all I care, I just find it hard to believe now, while you're ready to bet your house on it. They know that "Shallow" is her song, and she will win for it. Are they ready to give her Best Actress too, considering she's at her first role and she's up against one of the most overdue actresses in the industry? You think so, while I don't.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 20:43:27 GMT
You keep acting like giving an Oscar to a singer is such a crazy concept. They gave an Oscar to Jennifer Hudson. At least Gaga already has a Globe for acting and is an a BP front runner. Also like I said they don’t give a shit about Song Oscars. Just because you find someone having two Oscars hard to stomach doesn’t mean the Academy gives a shit. To be fair, Hudson's competition were two virtual unknowns in (mostly) foreign language performances, an eleven-year-old girl, and a previous winner who had won two years earlier. And Dreamgirls was not only a huge deal back then (to the point that people were stunned it missed Best Picture), but Effie White was a star-making role regardless of who was playing her. Plus it was a supporting role, so perhaps there wasn't a rush to reward someone over her. Not saying that Gaga can't win, of course. She obviously can. And it's not even her debut (she did win a Golden Globe for acting a few years ago for American Horror Story, didn't she?). But the question is whether or not they want to give her two Oscars in the same night. Her name is front-and-center on the song (more than Cooper's is on the film as a producer), so knowing that she's pretty much locked in to win one Oscar, will they want to give her a second in a bigger category? If they do, it's because they really love her. I’ve made it clear that I really don’t think that the Academy members are going to be thinking about the Song Oscars while they are voting for Best Actress. I don’t think they are nearly as obsessed with these things as we are. And you bring up competition. I don’t want to get into all the other contenders but let’s stick to Close here assuming she is her toughest competition. She has received so substantial critics push in a film hardly anybody has seen that has no other Oscar prospects. All she really has right now is the fact that she has never won and like I said if the Academy cared that much about that she would have won for Albert Knobbs over another actress that already had two.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 20:44:50 GMT
You keep acting like giving an Oscar to a singer is such a crazy concept. They gave an Oscar to Jennifer Hudson. At least Gaga already has a Globe for acting and is an a BP front runner. Also like I said they don’t give a shit about Song Oscars. Just because you find someone having two Oscars hard to stomach doesn’t mean the Academy gives a shit. Also I was there. People were way more irate about the idea of Sandra winning than they are about Gaga You keep misinterpreting. They can give her the 2 Oscars for all I care, I just find it hard to believe now, while you're ready to bet your house on it. They know that "Shallow" is her song, and she will win for it. Are they ready to give her Best Actress too, considering she's at her first role and she's up against one of the most overdue actresses in the industry? You think so, while I don't. See my reply to Stephen. If anything her song being one of the biggest of the year only helps her. The Academy is all about hype not prestige and Gaga is one of the most talked about people of this year across two mediums. The Academy will want to be in on that shit. im generally very good at predicting these kind of things because I know that the Academy won’t do the thing the film buffs want them to do because they almost never do.
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