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Post by sirjeremy on Dec 14, 2018 13:17:16 GMT
I know we haven't had the televised awards yet but so far this is the most exciting race to watch.
Gaga is campaigning and has the advantage of A Star is Born probably being loved than any other of her contender's films. I expect she'll win the Globe.
Colman is busy filming The Crown, so has done little campaigning and isn't widely known, but her film is looking likely to be nominated in at least four other major categories, and she might add to her BAFTA collection with a fourth win.
Like Colman, Close is busy (with theatre in New York for another two weeks) but I expect her to campaign hard next month, win at SAG, and ultimately the overdue narrative will give her that long overdue Oscar.
I don't think Blunt, McCarthy, Kidman, or Aparicio have any chance of winning.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 14, 2018 13:18:34 GMT
I honestly don't know. I keep on going back and forth between Colman and Gaga. Gun to head right now I guess I would say Colman.
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Post by stephen on Dec 14, 2018 13:27:33 GMT
I still think it's Colman. Fox Searchlight knows that her Crown shooting schedule, which wraps early next month, has kept her from campaigning in full force, but she has still been out there, accepting awards and giving interviews. FSL has planned accordingly; they let Weisz and Stone carry the full force of the campaign in the front half, but I guarantee you that the moment that Colman is freed up, they will be trotting her out everywhere. It's actually the perfect strategy, as it keeps people from undergoing fatigue the way they might with Gaga (how many more times can people hear that "there can be 100 people in a room . . ." quote?).
Gaga's already assured a Best Song Oscar that night, so voters might feel a "welcome to the club" Best Actress nomination is enough for her. I don't think Close will be able to take her down at the Globes or win at BAFTA. SAG will tell the tale for sure, but I still think Colman wins there because it's a louder, showier role than damn near any of them. She probably takes BAFTA, and it's just a question of where the Comedy Globe goes, because if anyone spoils the race at this point, I think it's going to be Emily Blunt.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 14, 2018 13:29:56 GMT
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 14, 2018 14:02:53 GMT
Olivia Colman's biggest problem is the Comedy Globe. The HFPA LOVES musicals and loves Emily Blunt. If she gets that, then she's a serious threat for the win.
If Blunt gets that... we'd better watch out.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2018 16:29:18 GMT
It's either Close, Colman, or Gaga... Like you, I'm predicting Close to ultimately win.
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Post by quetee on Dec 14, 2018 17:13:47 GMT
I'm giving Colman edge cause she plays real person. Other than that Gaga is definitely ranked second.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 14, 2018 20:36:04 GMT
I hope we get this scenario, for chaos' sake:
Globes - Gaga and Blunt
SAG - Close
BAFTA - Colman
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 14, 2018 21:44:25 GMT
Glenn Close
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 14, 2018 21:49:00 GMT
I still think it's Gaga
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Post by quetee on Dec 14, 2018 22:07:13 GMT
I hope we get this scenario, for chaos' sake: Globes - Gaga and Blunt SAG - Close BAFTA - Colman Globes: gaga and Colman Sag: ugh...toss up really, going gaga Bafta: colman |
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Post by mrimpossible on Dec 14, 2018 22:11:33 GMT
I hope we get this scenario, for chaos' sake: Globes - Gaga and Blunt SAG - Close BAFTA - Colman The race would almost be locked with Close in that scenario. I'm currently predicting Close to win. |
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Post by fiosnasiob on Dec 14, 2018 22:17:07 GMT
 BUT Colman has a lot going for her, arguably the best performance of the bunch, she will probably win the BAFTA and BAFTA/Oscars matched 7/8 this decade for Best Actress (only Riva won instead of Lawrence) and she's probably her (very acclaimed) film's best chance to win a big prize (or maybe it's Best Screenplay ?). |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2018 22:22:37 GMT
sirjeremy - Enjoy Queen Glenn's acceptance speech at the Museum of the Moving Image in New York. I loved the sweet shoutout to Mary Beth Hurt. 
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 14, 2018 22:31:37 GMT
I think you guys are giving the Academy WAAAAY too much credit. They are basic bitches who almost just go with the easiest answer. They are going to give it to Gaga no matter how much we try to convince ourselves otherwise. When do they ever let us have nice things?
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 14, 2018 22:53:27 GMT
I think you guys are giving the Academy WAAAAY too much credit. They are basic bitches who almost just go with the easiest answer. They are going to give it to Gaga no matter how much we try to convince ourselves otherwise. When do they ever let us have nice things? So you really think they'll give Gaga TWO Oscars on the same night for her screen debut? When there will be Glenn Close, aka the Deborah Kerr of our time, nominated alongside her? |
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Dec 14, 2018 23:16:57 GMT
Is that a question?
Ms Movie Star of course...
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 15, 2018 0:19:31 GMT
I think you guys are giving the Academy WAAAAY too much credit. They are basic bitches who almost just go with the easiest answer. They are going to give it to Gaga no matter how much we try to convince ourselves otherwise. When do they ever let us have nice things? So you really think they'll give Gaga TWO Oscars on the same night for her screen debut? When there will be Glenn Close, aka the Deborah Kerr of our time, nominated alongside her? Yep. They won’t care about the song Oscar. Also if they cared so much about Close having an Oscar they would have given her one for Albert Knobbs instead they went with someone who already had two. I mean you brought up Deborah Kerr. How did that work out for her? |
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Post by Allenism on Dec 15, 2018 0:30:25 GMT
I guess it really depends on how much Close and Colman campaign going forward. I think Close has the upper right now with her deafening "overdue" narrative, whereas Colman is a virtual unknown to American audiences. She could easily pull a '92 Thompson, but that win also occurred in a pisspoor year.
Gaga's nomination will be her win (along with a literal win for Best Song).
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Post by quetee on Dec 15, 2018 0:32:19 GMT
Close is not even doing well with the critics. They don't even think she's the best.
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Post by Allenism on Dec 15, 2018 0:36:08 GMT
Close is not even doing well with the critics. They don't even think she's the best. Yeah, you're right. It'd be such an anticlimactic, transparently "overdue" win. |
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 15, 2018 0:45:21 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2018 1:11:52 GMT
Close is not even doing well with the critics. They don't even think she's the best. Yeah, you're right. It'd be such an anticlimactic, transparently "overdue" win. She is legitimately wonderful in the film, though. It's far from her best work, but so few legendary actors actually win for their best performances. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2018 1:26:48 GMT
If it's not Close, I do think it'll be her... The talk of Colman feels so reminiscent of '96 Brenda Blethyn. |
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Dec 15, 2018 3:52:58 GMT
Not that I thought she was gonna win anything but why isn't Mary Elizabeth Winstead not getting any traction for All About Nina? Apparently she's great in it and Best Actress seems kind of weak.
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