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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 6, 2018 22:11:57 GMT
It's going to be Davis or Blunt. I'm still predicting Davis.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Dec 6, 2018 22:29:52 GMT
Collette will be the "surprise" nominee of 2018
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 6, 2018 22:58:25 GMT
Blunt should get in easily at this point. She has a banner year and Poppins looks like it's gonna make a huge splash, probably getting into the Best Picture line-up at this point. I'm still not sold on Close at this point, so I'm thinking Collette takes the fifth spot. If Kidman, Pike, or even Fisher pick up steam at SAG, BFCA, and/or BAFTA, they could turn into real threats, through.
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Post by thomasjerome on Dec 6, 2018 23:02:17 GMT
I have McCarthy missing actually. I just don't see enough of passion for it. I have Blunt at fourth. Fifth is... I don't know, hopefully Collette.
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Post by stephen on Dec 6, 2018 23:04:39 GMT
Emily Blunt. I'd actually say she's probably third in line right now after Colman and Gaga, as her film looks to be potentially much stronger than Close's and she fits the bill of what they like in this category.
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Post by mrimpossible on Dec 6, 2018 23:26:00 GMT
McCarthy is not a lock though. Even though I'm predicting her atm she's still on shaky grounds...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2018 23:41:51 GMT
Emily Blunt. I'd actually say she's probably third in line right now after Colman and Gaga, as her film looks to be potentially much stronger than Close's and she fits the bill of what they like in this category. When can we put "Glenn Close isn't a lock" to bed? It's tired.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Dec 7, 2018 0:06:36 GMT
At this point, Blunt cannot he called a filler choice.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 7, 2018 1:47:26 GMT
Emily Blunt. I'd actually say she's probably third in line right now after Colman and Gaga, as her film looks to be potentially much stronger than Close's and she fits the bill of what they like in this category. When can we put "Glenn Close isn't a lock" to bed? It's tired. It’s also true.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 7, 2018 2:17:06 GMT
Still think it will be Yalitza Aparicio.
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Post by Allenism on Dec 7, 2018 2:22:41 GMT
Still think it will be Yalitza Aparicio. I see this being a very likely outcome, especially if Roma overpeforms in the other categories. Davis feels shaky at this point. Currently I’m predicting Gaga, Close, McCarthy, and two of Kidman/Blunt/Aparicio making it in.
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Post by stephen on Dec 7, 2018 2:26:56 GMT
Still think it will be Yalitza Aparicio. I see this being a very likely outcome, especially if Roma overpeforms in the other categories. Davis feels shaky at this point. Currently I’m predicting Gaga, Close, McCarthy, and two of Kidman/Blunt/Aparicio making it in. You think Colman is missing?
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 7, 2018 2:28:41 GMT
Emily Blunt. I'd actually say she's probably third in line right now after Colman and Gaga, as her film looks to be potentially much stronger than Close's and she fits the bill of what they like in this category. When can we put "Glenn Close isn't a lock" to bed? It's tired. When has Glenn Close ever been snubbed? She's in the group of artists who gets nominated - because of who she is. She has the name recognition, especially with older members of AMPAS.
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Post by Allenism on Dec 7, 2018 2:39:44 GMT
I see this being a very likely outcome, especially if Roma overpeforms in the other categories. Davis feels shaky at this point. Currently I’m predicting Gaga, Close, McCarthy, and two of Kidman/Blunt/Aparicio making it in. You think Colman is missing? Brain fart! So it’s gonna be Colman, Gaga, Close, and probaly McCarthy and Blunt finishing it off with Aparicio and Kidman as spoilers.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 7, 2018 3:59:27 GMT
Kidman.
Rod Lurie says he's voting her as his winner.
Christopher Nolan is giving a public talk with Karyn Kusama on Friday, simply to help promote Destroyer.
When the likes of Nolan and Lurie are doing and saying this, and Kidman appears to be the film's only real chance of a nod, then that should tell you something.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 7, 2018 13:26:27 GMT
This is assuming that there's only one spot up for grabs with the other four already sewn up. And I don't subscribe to that.
Right now I'd say it's Colman, Gaga and McCarthy in that order, followed by a bunch of contenders wrestling for those last two slots, with Close and Blunt having the upper hand. I wouldn't even be surprised if Blunt wound up rising to #4 in the following weeks.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 7, 2018 13:59:33 GMT
I think Blunt will make it in comfortably. Mary Poppins Returns opens at the right time for Oscar nominations, it will make a shitload of money and Blunt will be seen rightfully overdue for a nomination so I don't see Kidman chosen over her. Annapurna already has two other big films to push.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2018 14:41:27 GMT
Zeb31 - Why do you think McCarthy is ahead of Close? She has missed precursors that should have been easy gets for her while her co-star was nominated, her film did not perform as well financially as The Wife, she certainly doesn't have the "overdue" narrative, and she is not her studio's main push this season. It defies logic, frankly.
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Post by quetee on Dec 7, 2018 19:34:59 GMT
There are only two locks:Gaga and Coleman. The other 3 slots all bets are off.
I think we get better picture next week after LA and NY announce.
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 7, 2018 20:06:46 GMT
Emily Blunt.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Dec 8, 2018 11:21:39 GMT
Its really a blood bath, but I also jump the Emily Blunt bandwagon as a I think Mary Poppins Returns will score nicely witht he Oscars in general... it will most likely get BP, Blunt, Song, Costume, Production Design
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 9, 2018 2:02:51 GMT
I think it will be
Colman Gaga Blunt McCarthy Kidman
HM: Yalitza Aparicio, Glenn Close, Toni Collette
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wattsnew
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Post by wattsnew on Dec 9, 2018 9:57:01 GMT
Collette or Blunt, since Davis' chances are dead. LOL @ the other options.
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 9, 2018 13:56:07 GMT
I think Blunt is getting in, but she's not the #5 spot. I'm confident that she's #3, behind Gaga (...) and Colman. I guess McCarthy is also pretty safe, even if I don't see much passion. I think maybe two contenders with more passion like Collette, Close, Fisher or Pike could benefit. I don't think neither Portman or Kidman are happening this year
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Dec 9, 2018 15:30:09 GMT
I think Colman, Gaga and Close are locks at this point. I honestly don't believe that Close will be snubbed, and I'm saying this as someone who likes her but has never been a huge fan of hers. She's a beloved veteran, she never won, she's having some of the best reviews of her career and her film has a strong message (strong character) that will earn her a lot of #1 placements on ballots. The other two spots will be occupied by either Aparicio (because the academy will probably love Roma, and in the last few years we've had plenty of foreign performances nominated in this category), McCarthy, Blunt or Collette. I'm still not completely sold on the latter two, so I'm predicting: Colman Gaga Close Aparicio McCarthy
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