Blunt, Kidman, Collette, Pike, Fisher or Portman?

I'm almost a week late, but--

The way I see it, most of Close's closest (!) competitors benefit from having strong films, and McCarthy is no exception. Grant is gaining serious momentum and could very well win Supporting, which by itself already ensures that Can You Ever Forgive Me? will be widely seen. On top of that, the film also has a serious shot at an Adapted Screenplay nomination, which raises its profile even further, whereas The Wife isn't a threat in any category other than Actress. McCarthy hasn't missed any precursors that actually matter so far, and her tally of critics awards at this point in the race is more impressive than Close's, who's routinely getting shut out by smaller groups (more so than McCarthy, from what I've noticed) and never actually gained the critical traction that many of her supporters expected her to. She's won none of the high-profile critics awards, and while the same is true of McCarthy, the latter at least benefits from the exposure of a co-star who's picking up big wins such as the NYFCC, and she has enough working for her that she doesn't need that extra buzz to really stand out.

As for the box-office, I'm not sure what you mean. You've brought that up elsewhere as well, but the performances of the two films are basically at the same level. As of yesterday, Can You Ever Forgive Me? is sitting at roughly $7.1 million domestically, while The Wife just crossed $8 million. The key difference here is that Close's film was released all the way back in August and is nearing the end of its run, while McCarthy's hasn't even been in theaters for two whole months and probably still has a little more gas to burn over the coming weeks. The Wife was playing in a mere 6 theaters last week and has now re-expanded to around 400 to benefit from the Globe nominations, yet it clearly didn't find the kind of success that SPC were hoping for. It still wound up grossing 20% less than Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which in turn was holding steady at 260 theaters and posted a PSA that was basically 2x that of The Wife's. I wouldn't be surprised to see McCarthy's film eventually overtake Close's at the domestic box-office; the gap is narrowing every week. So no, I don't see how their financial performances differ at all.

As for McCarthy's lack of an overdue narrative, the 2011 race showed that overdue sentiment doesn't carry the type of undeniable weight that Close's fans might hope for, and Searchlight proved last year that they can juggle multiple campaigns at once, given that the entire season was basically their two main horses duking it out for every Picture, Director and Ensemble prize at the industry awards. Both McDormand and Hawkins got in just fine last year, so there's no reason to believe the same can't happen again with Colman and McCarthy. 

If anything, the SAG nominations actually made me bump Close down to #5 officially. A Star is Born led with four nominations, which further cements Gaga's status; The Favourite missed Ensemble but managed to get all three of its ladies nodded, including two in the same category, which signals its strong support in the acting branch; and both McCarthy and Grant were nominated, so the former has the latter's buzz to aid her case. Then there's Blunt with her shocking double nods. Mary Poppins Returns was a possibility but there was always doubt as to whether it screened for enough voters, and then A Quiet Place (which came out all the way back in April and was predicted by nobody) consolidated her banner year. That she pulled through for both films bodes very, very well for her chances, and speaks to real, passionate support for her (deservingly so). She and McCarthy are essentially at the same level now (interchangeable at #3 and #4), leaving Close right where I thought she was: probably in, but in danger of missing out.

Close is helped by the fact that both Collette and Davis have taken massive hits by missing the Globe + SAG combo, but Roma's meteoric rise means she's far from locked.