jakob
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Post by jakob on Jul 26, 2018 3:02:09 GMT
Halfway through the year so..... LET'S START DOING THIS SHALL WE?
BEST PICTURE "Ad Astra" (20th Century Fox) "Backseat" (Annapurna Pictures) "Beautiful Boy" (Amazon Studios) "Boy Erased" (Focus Features) "BlacKkKlansman" (Focus Features) "The Front Runner" (Columbia Pictures) "First Man" (Universal Pictures) "Roma" (Netflix) "A Star Is Born" (Warner Bros.)
BEST DIRECTOR James Gray | "Ad Astra" Adam McKay | "Backseat" Spike Lee | "BlacKkKlansman" Alfonso Cuaron | "Roma" Bradley Cooper | "A Star Is Born"
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE Christian Bale | "Backseat" Steve Carell | "Beautiful Boy" Bradley Cooper | "A Star Is Born" Ryan Gosling | "First Man" Hugh Jackman | "The Front Runner"
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE Viola Davis | "Widows" Lady Gaga | "A Star Is Born" Felicity Jones | "On the Basis of Sex" Carey Mulligan | "Wildlife" Saorise Ronan | "Mary, Queen of Scots"
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Timothee Chalamet | "Beautiful Boy" Adam Driver | "BlacKkKlansman" Sam Elliot | "A Star Is Born" Daniel Kaluuya | "Widows" J.K. Simmons | "The Front Runner"
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Amy Adams | "Backseat" Claire Foy | "First Man" Nicole Kidman | "Boy Erased" Margot Robbie | "Mary, Queen of Scots" Amy Ryan | "Beautiful Boy"
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY James Gray & Ethan Gross | "Ad Astra" Adam McKay | "Backseat" Bo Burnham | "Eighth Grade" Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara | "The Favourite" Paul Schrader | "First Reformed"
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Luke Davies & Felix Van Groeningen | "Beautiful Boy" Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, & Kevin Willmott | "BlacKkKlansman" Joel Edgerton | "Boy Erased" Matt Bai, Jason Reitman, & Jay Carson | "The Front Runner" Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, & Will Fetters | "A Star Is Born"
I also predict there will be no woman director this year due to a lack of contenders (unless Mary, Queen of Scots is a Top 5-er) and there will be an outcry about it even though having a token woman nominee every year is actually worse than having none nominated at all. Also, a shockingly underwhelming amount of diversity in the acting categories, meaning if Widows doesn't come to the rescue, this could be a pretty white year, but I'm confident in the surplus amount of new members that that won't be the case. Some of you may be noticing I'm not predicting John David Washington or If Beale Street Could Talk. I haven't heard anything stand-outish about Washington's performance to warrant a nomination (although it could happen) and I've heard Barry Jenkins' newest film is... "not an Oscar contender". So take that what you will. I'm not predicting The Favourite just yet for any big prizes outside Screenplay because no matter how good we think it looks, it's also Yorgos Lanthimos and even a film that is historical and not his usual skewed fantasy can still be "too weird" for the Academy. Paul Thomas Anderson proved that wrong last year, but he's always been loved by the Academy anyway. If the film is loved, though, I could see Best Picture and Best Director nominations and I assume the BAFTAs will enjoy it enough to nominate Olivia Colman (then maybe the Academy will too ala Manville). Also, I'm not predicting Chazzelle in Director because A.) he's already just won and B.) I've heard First Man is good, but definitely his weakest so far. Good enough to be a contender, but not a threat in any category, and his direction is far less showy than it has been before. And no, I don't think Black Panther will get in Best Picture. I know, the internet is already telling you it will, and its has the backing to do so, but I think in terms of getting "the black vote", the focus will be entirely on Spike Lee and the push to get him to win his first Oscar(s).
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 26, 2018 3:15:05 GMT
Have you heard anything to suggest Ad Astra could do well? Because James Gray is something of an Oscar pariah at this point. Also, it's set for aJanuary 11th release, meaning 20th Century Fox would have to give it a limited release (probably in December) to keep it eligible, and I don't see it building up much hype that late in the running. I definitely don't see it performing better than Widows or Beale Street. I think you're underestimating those way too much, and overestimating A Star Is Born and especially Ad Astra.
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Post by stephen on Jul 26, 2018 3:28:46 GMT
I think the Coens just came in with a wrecking ball.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 26, 2018 3:37:18 GMT
I know they can't always be trusted but test screenings have been incredibly positive for The Favourite.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Jul 26, 2018 3:38:00 GMT
I think the Coens just came in with a wrecking ball. See, I don't know about that. I like that they're doing an anthology film, but I also feel like conceptually it's probably going to be something that gets mainly ignored by general audiences, even if it's free on Netflix. I may be wrong, and I'm waiting for the first screenings to happen now that it's festival season, but my vibes on this one are lukewarm, especially because it's been eight years since their last huge contender while Inside Llewyn Davis and Hail Caesar got a nomination or two, but no big nomination.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Jul 26, 2018 3:38:26 GMT
I think the Coens just came in with a wrecking ball. I don’t know. I think everyone’s cooled on them, especially since they got their big triple crown a decade ago, and I don’t think this is gonna be a big crowd pleaser the same way True Grit was.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2018 3:40:50 GMT
I think the Coens just came in with a wrecking ball. netflix would most likely make roma a priority over this, unless it gets sky high reviews and stuff and i really want to predict roma for best picture, but if it even gets a nod there it would be netflix's first, and it, as a foreign film with a cast full of new-names would need yuuuuuge amount of support to break thru. if it does, slumdog would be a close precedent tho, but lack of acting support on paper makes me leery rn.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Jul 26, 2018 3:42:19 GMT
Have you heard anything to suggest Ad Astra could do well? Because James Gray is something of an Oscar pariah at this point. Also, it's set for aJanuary 11th release, meaning 20th Century Fox would have to give it a limited release (probably in December) to keep it eligible, and I don't see it building up much hype that late in the running. I definitely don't see it performing better than Widows or Beale Street. I think you're underestimating those way too much, and overestimating A Star Is Born and especially Ad Astra. Considering it's James Gray's first big budget studio film, and there's always at least a fantasy contender, this just seems like the kind of film by a director that has always been sidelined finally getting the chance to make an impression on the Academy. We've been through this before with Interstellar, but I think James Gray has the ability to churn out a better script than Nolan (Nolan's great at screenwriting IMO, but he has some massively polarizing tendencies that Gray seems to steer pretty clear away from).
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Post by stephen on Jul 26, 2018 3:45:16 GMT
I think the Coens just came in with a wrecking ball. netflix would most likely make roma a priority over this, unless it gets sky high reviews and stuff Not when it comes to acting nominations.
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Post by stephen on Jul 26, 2018 3:48:44 GMT
I think the Coens just came in with a wrecking ball. I don’t know. I think everyone’s cooled on them, especially since they got their big triple crown a decade ago, and I don’t think this is gonna be a big crowd pleaser the same way True Grit was. Eh, Inside Llewyn Davis is perhaps their most esoteric, abstract film since Barton Fink, and Hail, Caesar! was a February release. Despite the anthology feel, it's not that much different than what Tarantino does on the regular, and this will likely be far more mainstream and it actually has name actors, and considering how relatively thin the supporting actor field this year seems to be, it's not outside the possibility to see love go to them from the acting branch, and the Coen Brothers have fourteen nominations each: they are among the most beloved working filmmakers by the Academy, so you can hardly count them out just because their last two films didn't score well with them.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2018 3:53:18 GMT
netflix would most likely make roma a priority over this, unless it gets sky high reviews and stuff Not when it comes to acting nominations. so you called it a wrecking ball primarily as an acting contender in the op? just clarifying.
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Post by stephen on Jul 26, 2018 3:58:36 GMT
Not when it comes to acting nominations. so you called it a wrecking ball primarily as an acting contender in the op? just clarifying. Acting, writing, possibly direction, possibly picture . . . not to mention that it's a Delbonnel-shot period piece, which speaks to techs like cinematography and costume design. Honestly, were it not for the Netflix stigma, I'd say it only needs to be critically acclaimed to be a huge contender for a lot of those slots, certainly more than something potentially "out there" as a James Gray movie (who has never been the Academy's cup of tea) or even a movie about Dick Cheney of all people in this political climate.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jul 26, 2018 14:02:30 GMT
A few guesses:
Best Picture 1. Blackkklansman (Spike Lee) (Focus) 2. Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) (Netflix) 3. First Man (Damien Chazelle) (Universal) 4. The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) (Fox Searchlight) 5. Widows (Steven McQueen) (Fox) 6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Coen bros) (Netflix) 7. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller) (Fox Searchlight) 8. The Front Runner (Jason Reitman) (Columbia) 9. Hereditary (Ari Aster) (A24) 10. Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) (Disney)
Director 1. Spike Lee, Blackkklansman (Focus) 2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (Netflix) 3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (Universal) 4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) 5. Coen bros, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix)
Best Actor 1. Christian Bale, Backseat (Annapurna) 2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (Universal) 3. John David Washington, Blackkklansman (Focus) 4. Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun (Fox Searchlight) 5. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix) - Longer shots 6. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (Columbia) 7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (Focus) 8. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (A24) 9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (Amazon) 10. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.)
Best Actress 1. Toni Collette, Hereditary (A24) 2. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) 3. Viola Davis, Widows (Fox) 4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) (I'm not sure if she'll be the one to be pushed as leading) 5. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (Annapurna) - Longer shots: 6. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (Focus) 7. Felicity Jones, On The Basis of Sex (Focus) 8. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) 9. Keira Knightley, Colette (Bleecker Street) 10. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (IFC)
Supporting Actor 1. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (Amazon) 2. Adam Driver, Blackkklansman (Focus) 3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (Annapurna) 4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) 5. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (Sony) - Longer shots: 6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (Fox) 7. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (Focus) 8. J. K. Simmons, The Front Runner (Columbia) 9. Lucas Hedges, Mid90s (A24) 10. Kyle Chandler, First Man (Universal)
Supporting Actress 1. Emma Stone, The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) 2. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (Focus) 3. Amy Adams, Backseat (Annapurna) 4. Claire Foy, First Man (Universal) 5. Sissy Spacek, Old Man & The Gun (Fox Searchlight) - Longer shots: 6. Tilda Swinton, Suspiria (Amazon) 7. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (Lionsgate) 8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (Focus) 9. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (Paramount) 10. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
I'll come up later with Original & Adapted Screenplay predictions.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jul 26, 2018 15:33:43 GMT
A few guesses: Best Picture
1. Blackkklansman (Spike Lee) (Focus) 2. Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) (Netflix) 3. First Man (Damien Chazelle) (Universal) 4. The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) (Fox Searchlight) 5. Widows (Steven McQueen) (Fox) 6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Coen bros) (Netflix) 7. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller) (Fox Searchlight) 8. The Front Runner (Jason Reitman) (Columbia) 9. Hereditary (Ari Aster) (A24) 10. Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) (Disney) Director
1. Spike Lee, Blackkklansman (Focus) 2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (Netflix) 3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (Universal) 4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) 5. Coen bros, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix) Best Actor
1. Christian Bale, Backseat (Annapurna) 2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (Universal) 3. John David Washington, Blackkklansman (Focus) 4. Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun (Fox Searchlight) 5. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Netflix) - Longer shots 6. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (Columbia) 7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (Focus) 8. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (A24) 9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (Amazon) 10. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) Best Actress
1. Toni Collette, Hereditary (A24) 2. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) 3. Viola Davis, Widows (Fox) 4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) (I'm not sure if she'll be the one to be pushed as leading) 5. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (Annapurna) - Longer shots: 6. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (Focus) 7. Felicity Jones, On The Basis of Sex (Focus) 8. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) 9. Keira Knightley, Colette (Bleecker Street) 10. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (IFC) Supporting Actor
1. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (Amazon) 2. Adam Driver, Blackkklansman (Focus) 3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (Annapurna) 4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) 5. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (Sony) - Longer shots: 6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (Fox) 7. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (Focus) 8. J. K. Simmons, The Front Runner (Columbia) 9. Lucas Hedges, Mid90s (A24) 10. Kyle Chandler, First Man (Universal) Supporting Actress
1. Emma Stone, The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) 2. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (Focus) 3. Amy Adams, Backseat (Annapurna) 4. Claire Foy, First Man (Universal) 5. Sissy Spacek, Old Man & The Gun (Fox Searchlight) - Longer shots: 6. Tilda Swinton, Suspiria (Amazon) 7. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (Lionsgate) 8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (Focus) 9. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (Paramount) 10. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) I'll come up later with Original & Adapted Screenplay predictions. Terrible guesses
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Jul 26, 2018 16:32:11 GMT
I think Roma will be the first Best Picture winner for Netflix.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jul 26, 2018 17:14:26 GMT
or even a movie about Dick Cheney of all people in this political climate. That's why I'm not betting heavy on McKay's film just yet. In a climate where La La Land and Three Billboards can be brought down by the slightest of controversies, whether or not the Academy goes for it will most likely hinge on how its real life politics are handled. Maybe someone who's been to the test screenings or has heard from others who have can shed some light here.
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Post by stephen on Jul 26, 2018 18:40:08 GMT
or even a movie about Dick Cheney of all people in this political climate. That's why I'm not betting heavy on McKay's film just yet. In a climate where La La Land and Three Billboards can be brought down by the slightest of controversies, whether or not the Academy goes for it will most likely hinge on how its real life politics are handled. Maybe someone who's been to the test screenings or has heard from others who have can shed some light here. Indeed. Very rarely do portrayals of living figures with the level of controversy and associated toxicity as Cheney has get recognized while they are still alive. The backlash would just be too great. Even Nixon and The Last King of Scotland waited until their subjects were dead before they made the movies about them and people felt comfortable about acknowledging portrayals of them in this way. The only exception in recent memory is when James Woods got nodded for playing Byron de la Beckwith. Backseat just feels like it's going to be closer to W than anything else. Maybe it'll get recognized, but enough to win? I just can't see that.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jul 26, 2018 18:44:35 GMT
I don't care how Backseat does as long as Amy Adams wins the fucking Oscar.
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Post by JangoB on Jul 26, 2018 23:22:18 GMT
I don’t know. I think everyone’s cooled on them, especially since they got their big triple crown a decade ago, and I don’t think this is gonna be a big crowd pleaser the same way True Grit was. Eh, Inside Llewyn Davis is perhaps their most esoteric, abstract film since Barton Fink, and Hail, Caesar! was a February release. Despite the anthology feel, it's not that much different than what Tarantino does on the regular, and this will likely be far more mainstream and it actually has name actors, and considering how relatively thin the supporting actor field this year seems to be, it's not outside the possibility to see love go to them from the acting branch, and the Coen Brothers have fourteen nominations each: they are among the most beloved working filmmakers by the Academy, so you can hardly count them out just because their last two films didn't score well with them. I know we don't know much about the film and its quality and tone yet, but I think it already has a big hurdle in terms of its Oscar chances because it's an anthology. It's not quite the same as Tarantino - as I understand, it'll really just be 6 separate stories, like "Wild Tales". And I dunno if it'll really be more mainstream than Tarantino, and it also doesn't really have that many proper name actors in it, so for me there're two important questions here: is the Academy gonna take to an anthology film and what the tone of the film is. I remember reading somewhere that it's more of a comedy anthology, and their comedies don't tend to do well with the Oscars. But I also understand that the Venice program director said that the segments vary in tone, so maybe it's not full-on comedy. Ah, we'll see, it's just bare speculation from me. Need to see some reviews first, but at the moment I remain a bit sceptical.
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Post by stephen on Jul 27, 2018 2:19:10 GMT
Eh, Inside Llewyn Davis is perhaps their most esoteric, abstract film since Barton Fink, and Hail, Caesar! was a February release. Despite the anthology feel, it's not that much different than what Tarantino does on the regular, and this will likely be far more mainstream and it actually has name actors, and considering how relatively thin the supporting actor field this year seems to be, it's not outside the possibility to see love go to them from the acting branch, and the Coen Brothers have fourteen nominations each: they are among the most beloved working filmmakers by the Academy, so you can hardly count them out just because their last two films didn't score well with them. I know we don't know much about the film and its quality and tone yet, but I think it already has a big hurdle in terms of its Oscar chances because it's an anthology. It's not quite the same as Tarantino - as I understand, it'll really just be 6 separate stories, like "Wild Tales". And I dunno if it'll really be more mainstream than Tarantino, and it also doesn't really have that many proper name actors in it, so for me there're two important questions here: is the Academy gonna take to an anthology film and what the tone of the film is. I remember reading somewhere that it's more of a comedy anthology, and their comedies don't tend to do well with the Oscars. But I also understand that the Venice program director said that the segments vary in tone, so maybe it's not full-on comedy. Ah, we'll see, it's just bare speculation from me. Need to see some reviews first, but at the moment I remain a bit sceptical. Still, these are the Coen Brothers. They are Academy royalty. I can understand being skeptical, but I'm more assured of their chances that some of the things being bandied about as contenders.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 27, 2018 6:02:54 GMT
This might just be hype/wishful thinking, but I could totally see Peterloo make a big splash after watching the teaser. It looks like it could be Leigh's most accessible film in over a decade, the critics will give it support, the BAFTAs will give it lots of support, it looks beautiful and is going to have support in the tech categories, and I could see the social justice narrative in a period setting (especially from a prestigious director who's due for some Academy attention) scoring major points. I see it getting nods for BP, original screenplay, at least three tech categories (costume, production design, cinematography look likely), and possibly even best director.
Potential pitfalls might be a lack of potential acting standouts (Rory Kinnear looks strong on paper and in that teaser but we'll have to wait and see), and the runtime might put some viewers off, but I wouldn't sleep on this one's chances. I think it may finally be Leigh's year to get some recognition.
I definitely see it having more success than something like The Favourite, which is bound to be divisive.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 27, 2018 6:46:28 GMT
This might just be hype/wishful thinking, but I could totally see Peterloo make a big splash after watching the teaser. It looks like it could be Leigh's most accessible film in over a decade, the critics will give it support, the BAFTAs will give it lots of support, it looks beautiful and is going to have support in the tech categories, and I could see the social justice narrative in a period setting (especially from a prestigious director who's due for some Academy attention) scoring major points. I see it getting nods for BP, original screenplay, at least three tech categories (costume, production design, cinematography look likely), and possibly even best director. Potential pitfalls might be a lack of potential acting standouts (Rory Kinnear looks strong on paper and in that teaser but we'll have to wait and see), and the runtime might put some viewers off, but I wouldn't sleep on this one's chances. I think it may finally be Leigh's year to get some recognition. I definitely see it having more success than something like The Favourite, which is bound to be divisive. Thoughts on the fact that Cannes rejected Peterloo? Also if you're making the argument that Peterloo is Leigh's most accessible in a while, the same has to be said about Lanthimos and The Favourite. Word out of test screenings have been extremely positive all round. Multiple sources have said that it is easily his most accessible and commercial yet and that it will be a big player come Oscar time. Plus it's doing Telluride, Venice and NYFF. Basically what I'm trying to say is, if Peterloo gets more noms than The Favourite I'll eat my The Killing of a Sacred Deer Blu-Ray and record it for you guys.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 27, 2018 7:03:39 GMT
This might just be hype/wishful thinking, but I could totally see Peterloo make a big splash after watching the teaser. It looks like it could be Leigh's most accessible film in over a decade, the critics will give it support, the BAFTAs will give it lots of support, it looks beautiful and is going to have support in the tech categories, and I could see the social justice narrative in a period setting (especially from a prestigious director who's due for some Academy attention) scoring major points. I see it getting nods for BP, original screenplay, at least three tech categories (costume, production design, cinematography look likely), and possibly even best director. Potential pitfalls might be a lack of potential acting standouts (Rory Kinnear looks strong on paper and in that teaser but we'll have to wait and see), and the runtime might put some viewers off, but I wouldn't sleep on this one's chances. I think it may finally be Leigh's year to get some recognition. I definitely see it having more success than something like The Favourite, which is bound to be divisive. Thoughts on the fact that Cannes rejected Peterloo? This historically doesn't mean much. Mr. Turner played well at Cannes in 2014 and even picked up a Best Actor win for Spall, but it didn't have any momentum come Oscar season. There was clearly a push at this year's Cannes to promote new voices, so it makes sense that someone like Leigh who makes the lineup virtually every time he makes a film would fall by the wayside. Cannes has never been a good predictor for the late-season awards race. I hear what you're saying, but watching that trailer...ehh, I'm still not buying it. This is still going to be a Lanthimos joint and his films have always been niche. I could see it find some success (maybe a screenplay nod and maybe an acting nod or two), but I just don't see a Lanthimos film finding the level of industry appeal it would need to have in order to be a big player at next year's Oscars. I may be wrong, but I'd rather bet against someone who's known for making, weird, niche films (this coming from someone who loved Sacred Deer by the way) and who's never been a major Oscar player than an established director who's well-regarded in the industry, overdue for some attention, and bringing his most expensive and ambitious project to date about a socially significant subject that's never been put to film. I just don't see The Favourite playing better with voters than Peterloo, just going off the marketing and the subject matter. I guess we'll have to wait for Venice.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2018 7:04:46 GMT
Basically what I'm trying to say is, if Peterloo gets more noms than The Favourite I'll eat my The Killing of a Sacred Deer Blu-Ray and record it for you guys. cute image. watch less lanthimos.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 27, 2018 8:06:05 GMT
Thoughts on the fact that Cannes rejected Peterloo? This historically doesn't mean much. Mr. Turner played well at Cannes in 2014 and even picked up a Best Actor win for Spall, but it didn't have any momentum come Oscar season. There was clearly a push at this year's Cannes to promote new voices, so it makes sense that someone like Leigh who makes the lineup virtually every time he makes a film would fall by the wayside. Cannes has never been a good predictor for the late-season awards race. I hear what you're saying, but watching that trailer...ehh, I'm still not buying it. This is still going to be a Lanthimos joint and his films have always been niche. I could see it find some success (maybe a screenplay nod and maybe an acting nod or two), but I just don't see a Lanthimos film finding the level of industry appeal it would need to have in order to be a big player at next year's Oscars. I may be wrong, but I'd rather bet against someone who's known for making, weird, niche films (this coming from someone who loved Sacred Deer by the way) and who's never been a major Oscar player than an established director who's well-regarded in the industry, overdue for some attention, and bringing his most expensive and ambitious project to date about a socially significant subject that's never been put to film. I just don't see The Favourite playing better with voters than Peterloo, just going off the marketing and the subject matter. I guess we'll have to wait for Venice. Some valid points but I still have my faith in The Favourite. Agree to disagree.
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