Post by Zeb31 on Jul 27, 2018 15:34:08 GMT
This historically doesn't mean much. Mr. Turner played well at Cannes in 2014 and even picked up a Best Actor win for Spall, but it didn't have any momentum come Oscar season.
Is there actual confirmation that Frémaux turned down Peterloo? If so, is there precedent for a Cannes reject rebounding and making a splash during awards season? Not just getting a poor reception upon its premiere, like Inglourious Basterds, but outright getting blocked from screening at all? I'm asking because I legitimately don't know.
There was clearly a push at this year's Cannes to promote new voices, so it makes sense that someone like Leigh who makes the lineup virtually every time he makes a film would fall by the wayside.
I think either Peterloo was still being edited, or Amazon decided it'd be a better commercial/awards move to take it to Venice, or it really was rejected. I can't see a scenario where Leigh wants to go and the Cannes team just says "no, let someone else have a shot", especially when in the same edition they gladly welcomed an unflinchingly sadistic provocation from a persona non grata who's as far from a new voice as it gets.
This is still going to be a Lanthimos joint and his films have always been niche. I could see it find some success (maybe a screenplay nod and maybe an acting nod or two), but I just don't see a Lanthimos film finding the level of industry appeal it would need to have in order to be a big player at next year's Oscars.
The concept of an Oscar movie is changing pretty quickly as the voting body expands and becomes more heterogeneous, which is how the past ceremony saw a very close BP race between a Guillermo Del Toro fantasy about a woman fucking a sea creature, a dark dramedy from the guy who made In Bruges, and a horror satire from Jordan Peele that came out all the way back in February.
The Favourite doesn't involve graphic incest and self-mutilation, it doesn't have a fantastical premise like The Lobster's, and it's not a violent modern riff on a Greek tragedy, so it probably won't be as challenging as Lanthimos's previous efforts. A comedic period piece about the British monarchy starring Emma Stone will be a much easier pill to swallow.
I just don't see The Favourite playing better with voters than Peterloo, just going off the marketing and the subject matter.
Plus, y'know. It's Fox Searchlight vs. Amazon. The latter also have Beautiful Boy (major acting threat, potential Supporting Actor frontrunner) and Suspiria to campaign for, while The Favourite is poised to be the former's #1 horse. Amazon had a good run with Manchester by the Sea and The Salesman in 2016, but they're yet to prove they can juggle that many contenders at once. All they managed last year at the Oscars was a grand total of 1 nomination, while Fox Searchlight saw their two main players duking it out for BP and BD at virtually every single ceremony. They didn't just have the eventual BP winner, but also the likely runner-up. That's half of the big 8 winners right there.