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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2018 11:05:55 GMT
SAFE
1. Gary Oldman - Won 8 critics circle awards, the Globe, and nominated for both the SAG and BAFTA. We will probably see him winning the Critics Choice soon.
2. James Franco - Won the Globe for Best Actor, nominated for the SAG, and plays a real-life character.
3. Timothee Chalamet - Nominated for the BAFTA and SAG, and tied with Oldman for the most critics circle wins.
LIKELY
4. Daniel Kaluuya - Nominated for both the SAG and BAFTA. Attached to a Best Picture front-runner. Won 3 critics circle awards so far.
WILDCARD
5. Daniel Day-Lewis - Nominated for the BAFTA and won 4 critics circle awards.
6. Denzel Washington - Nominated for the SAG and Globe.
7. Tom Hanks - Nominated for the Globe and Critics Choice.
8. Jamie Bell - Nominated for the BAFTA
DARK HORSE
Harry Stanton, Jeremy Renner, and Robert Pattinson.
My prediction so far is:
Oldman, Franco, Chalamet, Kaluuga, and DDL.
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 11, 2018 12:36:11 GMT
James Franco won't get in due to the sexual abuse allegations against him coming out right now. I expect more women to come forward in the coming days.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 11, 2018 12:41:22 GMT
OLDMAN CHALAMET DAY-LEWIS WASHINGTON HANKS
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 11, 2018 13:09:42 GMT
Hmm, I wouldn't have Franco anywhere near that high given the BAFTA snub and the harassment scandal. I think he'll barely scrape in due to the field being so thin and the controversy breaking so late, but he could easily get left out.
1. Gary Oldman 2. Timothée Chalamet 3. Daniel Kaluuya 4. Daniel Day-Lewis
5. James Franco 6. Tom Hanks
7. Denzel Washington 8. Jamie Bell
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2018 13:15:05 GMT
This year is the perfect example of why Oscar nods do not mean what Oscar nods once meant - it is all a campaign now whittled down to a handful of companies who can campaign for you in a specific amount of films otherwise Stanton and Bale would be IN this list.
Certainly not f'n Denzel Washington and Tom Hanks who are, quite honestly a joke here as good actors as they are - for starring in basically a lukewarm miss (I liked some of it, but Denzel is not worthy and the movie is 49% on RT - 49% for Godsakes!) and a Hanks movie that is the very equivalent safe pick that I didn't like much honestly and where his co-star outshines him quite clearly. I know these modern legends "could" get in, but they shouldn't and I'm guessing they're not.
Oldman, Franco, Chalamet, Kaluuya, and DDL......and of those 5 only 4 are worthy - not Kaluuya (I haven't seen DDL but benefit of the doubt). The Oscars don't have the luxury to exclude actors this year when they have names like they have bubbling under......it's not a strong field at all.
Franco's not getting excluded imo and he shouldn't - not with that lineup - likable dude off screen (sorry but he is), but more importantly playing an actor, in a fine performance that goes beyond just impersonation - it's better than it needs to be - I'm guessing he stays in. He's 4th or 5th anyway but........
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 11, 2018 13:41:48 GMT
This year is the perfect example of why Oscar nods do not mean what Oscar nods once meant - it is all a campaign now whittled down to a handful of companies who can campaign for you in a specific amount of films otherwise Stanton and Bale would be IN this list. Certainly not f'n Denzel Washington and Tom Hanks who are, quite honestly a joke here as good actors as they are - for starring in basically a lukewarm miss (I liked some of it, but Denzel is not worthy and the movie is 49% on RT - 49% for Godsakes!) and a Hanks movie that is the very equivalent safe pick that I didn't like much honestly and where his co-star outshines him quite clearly. I know these modern legends "could" get in, but they shouldn't and I'm guessing they're not. Oldman, Franco, Chalamet, Kaluuya, and DDL......and of those 5 only 4 are worthy - not Kaluuya (I haven't seen DDL but benefit of the doubt). The Oscars don't have the luxury to exclude actors this year when they have names like they have bubbling under......it's not a strong field at all. Franco's not getting excluded imo and he shouldn't - not with that lineup - likable dude off screen (sorry but he is), but more importantly playing an actor, in a fine performance that goes beyond just impersonation - it's better than it needs to be - I'm guessing he stays in. He's 4th or 5th anyway but........ What's your opinion on a potential Jake Gyllenhaal nod?
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Post by JangoB on Jan 11, 2018 13:42:18 GMT
Oldman and Chalamet are clearly safe.
I think Kaluuya should be fine too - the movie's popular and he's hit all the right precursors. I think they'll be fine with having two fresh faces here.
DDL is probably next although I wonder if enough people see Phantom Thread. Still, his retirement is pretty big news so that should help.
And then it's probably Franco. The recent accusations may have come a tad too late to affect his chances BUT maybe there will be enough time for some voters not to put him in so who knows. If it's not Franco, then it's probably Hanks although I don't really understand what's going on with The Post since it's a real late bloomer. Maybe it'll be Denzel after all. I'm just wondering what's gonna happen with Franco.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2018 13:59:46 GMT
Well, I haven't seen it, but I would put that as a surprise because it doesn't seem like it has any heat even though everyone seemed to like it. Like it was seen and dismissed - with movies like that I can't see how they can then catch a buzz they've already missed.
But I'd rather see a Gyllenhaal nod than Hanks/Washington - it would make up for Nightcrawler, be to a guy who is in his career peak, which to me me seems a better make-up than Washington and Hanks - I mean Washington would be nodded for what - losing last year? (deservedly 2nd) and Hanks for not getting nodded for Captain Phillips which was never a lock anyway.
I mean that just seems really bending over backwards to nod undeserving dudes with multiple nods already.....
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Jan 11, 2018 14:29:12 GMT
Oldman Franco Kaluuya Hanks Chalamet
Hopefully DDL is snubbed and never heard of again
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 11, 2018 14:32:29 GMT
1. Oldman 2. Chalamet 3. Day-Lewis 4. Kaluuya 5. Hanks - Alt. Franco
I feel very confident about all of them. In normal years, I would've been skeptical about predicting one "newcomer", let alone two (!!!), but this is not a normal year. I've been in such denial about Franco getting in, because I think it's an awful performance in an awful film, and the recent allegations should effect his chances (esp. as more women are speaking out now) but we're late into the voting process. Hanks doesn't really have a momentum, but I don't know, the guy is beloved -- and feels like a safe pick for those who don't know who to replace Franco with. Plus, his film is already going to get a handful of noms so... Right now he feels like Franco's biggest rival. No way in hell will Washington get in.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2018 14:53:28 GMT
Oldman and Chalamet are fairly locked in.
Both of the Daniels are next. Kaluuya's hit all the necessary precursors, but I feel he's slightly more vulnerable than the other two, and I feel if anyone got screwed over in the final burst, it would be him. Day-Lewis didn't get SAG, but his film also didn't screen for enough people in time, and he's got the swan song narrative working for him. I feel these guys are comfortably in, but if either got the boot, I wouldn't be shocked.
Franco is hanging by a steadily fraying thread. His controversy hit at the peak time for Oscar voting and he missed BAFTA. The latter isn't that big a deal, as The Disaster Artist doesn't seem to be a film that would appeal to that bloc of voters, but AMPAS might be leery to nominate Franco just on the basis of PR. I think if he scrapes in, it'll be because most of the ballots were sent before his Globe win and the resultant fallout.
That leaves the question: if Franco misses, who takes his place? Gyllenhaal doesn't have any traction whatsoever and I can't see him automatically becoming a replacement candidate. Washington made SAG and the Globes but failed at BAFTA, but he's never needed BAFTA in the past, but his film also kinda came and went with a whimper. He'll likely have a loyal contingent of Denzel supporters bolstered by his success last year, but I still don't know if I buy him as the replacement, either. And then there's Hanks, who on paper would seem a surefire alternate (if not a nominee on his own merit), but the fact that he's missed a few times recently for what would be pretty strong bets for nominations might show a reluctance to recognize Hanks, or (more likely) that they just generally take him for granted and he doesn't seem to really care about campaigning for himself.
If there were justice in the world, Stanton would be in and everything would be A-OK.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 11, 2018 15:08:48 GMT
I don't think Franco gets in now. Though the current allegations, don't seem "as bad" as others, people will definitely have a problem voting for him in the current climate.
1. Oldman 2. Chalamet 3. DDL 4. Kaluuya 5. Hanks ------------ Washington Franco Gyllenhaal
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Post by wallsofjericho on Jan 11, 2018 15:25:10 GMT
This year is the perfect example of why Oscar nods do not mean what Oscar nods once meant - it is all a campaign now whittled down to a handful of companies who can campaign for you in a specific amount of films otherwise Stanton and Bale would be IN this list. Certainly not f'n Denzel Washington and Tom Hanks who are, quite honestly a joke here as good actors as they are - for starring in basically a lukewarm miss (I liked some of it, but Denzel is not worthy and the movie is 49% on RT - 49% for Godsakes!) and a Hanks movie that is the very equivalent safe pick that I didn't like much honestly and where his co-star outshines him quite clearly. I know these modern legends "could" get in, but they shouldn't and I'm guessing they're not. Oldman, Franco, Chalamet, Kaluuya, and DDL......and of those 5 only 4 are worthy - not Kaluuya (I haven't seen DDL but benefit of the doubt). The Oscars don't have the luxury to exclude actors this year when they have names like they have bubbling under......it's not a strong field at all. Franco's not getting excluded imo and he shouldn't - not with that lineup - likable dude off screen (sorry but he is), but more importantly playing an actor, in a fine performance that goes beyond just impersonation - it's better than it needs to be - I'm guessing he stays in. He's 4th or 5th anyway but........ How did you like Oldman?
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Post by hugobolso1 on Jan 11, 2018 15:47:11 GMT
I don't think Chamelet is safe, young actors usually get snub at the last minute, specially in Leading roles. His snub could give Oldman a triumph
I think the competition 4 best actor nomination is quite open.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 11, 2018 15:50:15 GMT
I wish Kaluuya would make that top 5 lineup but I have the feeling that he'll get snubbed
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 11, 2018 15:56:37 GMT
Oldman and Chalamet are both locked in #1 and #2. Both have strong arguments for a win, even thought I believe Oldman has the clear edge. DDL is sitting comfortably at #3. Phantom Thread didn't inspire that much passion from award bodies, but it's his swan song and he's got raves. Then I think Kaluuya is next. He hit all the precursos, but he's a newbie who doesn't really have the same charisma as Chalamet. I'm predicting him to get in, but who knows what the future holds. Franco was a safe bet, but after missing the BAFTA and the sexual harrassment scandal that's bound to happen, I don't think he's got it. Of the options, Hanks seems like the best bet. Of course, he's always predicted but always misses, but my gut says this year he can happen. From the bottom of my heart, I wish this was the opportunity to reward Pattinson or Stanton, but the Academy sucks.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2018 16:11:21 GMT
Thought it was a sly, smart piece of work. Very much believable and very much like Finney in The Gathering Storm which I haven't heard anybody say.
Worse performances have won that's for sure. I like him and Chalamet about the same in different ways.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 11, 2018 16:17:47 GMT
Franco at #2??? That's way too high to begin with. If Franco somehow squeezes by (because of votes already cast before the sexual harassment fallout), I would think that the Academy would have some jurisdiction to remove the nomination - and move up the person who finished in 6th place.
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 11, 2018 17:30:00 GMT
Oldman and Chalamet are surely in. I think Day-Lewis is as well.
I'd say Kaluuya and Franco are next in line. It's hard to guess how much damage the scandal will do to Franco. If he falls I'd imagine Tom Hanks is next in line.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 11, 2018 18:30:25 GMT
Franco at #2??? That's way too high to begin with. If Franco somehow squeezes by (because of votes already cast before the sexual harassment fallout), I would think that the Academy would have some jurisdiction to remove the nomination - and move up the person who finished in 6th place. Are you on crack?!? They'd have ZERO jurisdiction! Rescinding a nomination would open a can of worms AMPAS is DESPERATE to avoid & they sure as he'll won't use an example that is faaaar from cut n dry (even if you read all the comment sections on this story, people are being waaaay more questioning & unconvinced of the story's validity than they usually are when these "scandals" break. If AMPAS has no interest in rescinding Polanski's Oscar, which they DON'T, they sure as hell aren't going to make their 1st ever example be a guy who, at this point, most would say has at least an over 50% chance of being innocent. And who's handled the harsh accusations with great class, humility and an astonishing lack of self-preservation & consideration for those accusing him (especially considering he stands by his innocence).
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 11, 2018 18:36:06 GMT
To all the people who think that Franco still has a shot =
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Post by Pavan on Jan 11, 2018 19:04:07 GMT
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 11, 2018 20:42:22 GMT
Franco at #2??? That's way too high to begin with. If Franco somehow squeezes by (because of votes already cast before the sexual harassment fallout), I would think that the Academy would have some jurisdiction to remove the nomination - and move up the person who finished in 6th place. Are you on crack?!? They'd have ZERO jurisdiction! Rescinding a nomination would open a can of worms AMPAS is DESPERATE to avoid & they sure as he'll won't use an example that is faaaar from cut n dry (even if you read all the comment sections on this story, people are being waaaay more questioning & unconvinced of the story's validity than they usually are when these "scandals" break. If AMPAS has no interest in rescinding Polanski's Oscar, which they DON'T, they sure as hell aren't going to make their 1st ever example be a guy who, at this point, most would say has at least an over 50% chance of being innocent. And who's handled the harsh accusations with great class, humility and an astonishing lack of self-preservation & consideration for those accusing him (especially considering he stands by his innocence). No, I am not on crack. But it's obvious you will defend Franco regardless. The Academy will know the nominations before they are made public. But hopefully, they won't have to do anything, since the accusations broke at the peak of the voting period and he won't even be nominated.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 11, 2018 20:58:20 GMT
Are you on crack?!? They'd have ZERO jurisdiction! Rescinding a nomination would open a can of worms AMPAS is DESPERATE to avoid & they sure as he'll won't use an example that is faaaar from cut n dry (even if you read all the comment sections on this story, people are being waaaay more questioning & unconvinced of the story's validity than they usually are when these "scandals" break. If AMPAS has no interest in rescinding Polanski's Oscar, which they DON'T, they sure as hell aren't going to make their 1st ever example be a guy who, at this point, most would say has at least an over 50% chance of being innocent. And who's handled the harsh accusations with great class, humility and an astonishing lack of self-preservation & consideration for those accusing him (especially considering he stands by his innocence). No, I am not on crack. But it's obvious you will defend Franco regardless. The Academy will know the nominations before they are made public. But hopefully, they won't have to do anything, since the accusations broke at the peak of the voting period and he won't even be nominated. WOW! So you're willing to assume guilt with ZERO fucking evidence to back it up & some very conflicting & muddled accusations??
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 11, 2018 22:00:01 GMT
To all the people who think that Franco still has a shot = Famous last words. Right back at you.
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