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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 5, 2024 21:25:38 GMT
Alan Lichtman's official prediction video.
Just so you guys are aware. Lichtman's formula goes back to 1860. He has accurately predicted the POPULAR VOTE winner 40/41 times. 2016 is the only year, when the algorithm did not predict the national popular vote victor. When it comes to predicting the Electoral College winner, it is 38 out of 41. The off years were 1876 (Samuel Tilden), 1888 (Cleveland), and 2000 (Gore).
After 2000, Lichtman decided he was only going to predict the electoral college winner, not the popular vote winner.
So, lets just say he's about 93% accurate. 9/10 since he started forecasting, including getting the 2016 election correct.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 5, 2024 21:39:03 GMT
omg thank god. I can now obsessively refresh 538's polling average and election forecast with slightly less anxiety Tommen - .....on the other hand, see below - talking about doofus crackpots ........can you imagine if THIS is the actual electoral breakdown ......it's like that Civil War movie.......this scenario would be absurdly close
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 5, 2024 21:42:52 GMT
omg thank god. I can now obsessively refresh 538's polling average and election forecast with slightly less anxiety Tommen - .....on the other hand, see below - talking about doofus crackpots ........can you imagine if THIS is the actual electoral breakdown ......it's like that Civil War movie.......ths scenaro would be absurdly close
Give Nate the Great another month. He might change his mind again.
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Post by quetee on Sept 5, 2024 21:47:51 GMT
If America has enough morons to vote that psychopath in then we deserve everything he does to harm us.
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Post by quetee on Sept 6, 2024 0:59:13 GMT
So Russia paid a maga YouTuber 400k per month to spread lies. That's great.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 6, 2024 1:15:35 GMT
pacinoyes I said I was refreshing 538, not Silver Bulletin. You have to be really far gone to pay $20 a month for Nate Silver to tell you it's close, and here I can barely afford a jar of mayo
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 6, 2024 6:53:02 GMT
Orange Crybaby is not allowed to lie constantly....America's narc is not allowed to cackel (hopefully)......no one can refer to either VP candidate as "America's annoying folksy dad" or "the fat kid from Hillbilly Elegy"
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 6, 2024 21:12:55 GMT
pacinoyes I said I was refreshing 538, not Silver Bulletin. You have to be really far gone to pay $20 a month for Nate Silver to tell you it's close, and here I can barely afford a jar of mayo 20 bucks a month? My goodness. You can get a subscription to Peacock and AppleTV+ for less.
The race is pretty transparent. It's a statistical tie, with momentum in favor of Kamala Harris. She is leading in most of the swing state polls, but within that 5% margin of error, and has the enthusiasm variable.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 7, 2024 1:28:23 GMT
Quinnipiac just called me to answer poll questions! I've never been polled before.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 8, 2024 13:43:21 GMT
Debate in 2 days....... how much does it matter? You tell me .......
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Sept 8, 2024 14:10:23 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 9, 2024 17:18:09 GMT
the bar is so low lol. But GOP being defined entirely by Trump/MAGA these days means anyone in the party who comes out against him has at least half a spine. There is no anti-Trump future in that party, at least for a decade. Cheney torpedoed her political career for it and she's as conservative as AOC is liberal.
the list of "RINOs" grows daily
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 9, 2024 18:21:29 GMT
This race is really going to come down to Pa isn't it? I can almost guarantee when we go to bed on Election night we won't have a winner....... Great new video analysis - especially the first half -...................yeah it's totally Pennsylvania ^
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2024 11:53:38 GMT
Tommen - .....on the other hand, see below - talking about doofus crackpots ........can you imagine if THIS is the actual electoral breakdown ......it's like that Civil War movie.......ths scenaro would be absurdly close
Give Nate the Great another month. He might change his mind again. Maybe........let's just give him until after tonght's shitshow and circle back ........the SilverBullet Update is done weekly ...........no change in the pacinoyes Mayo Index - on the other hand................... interest rates may be cut this month..............that would be a start ...........
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Post by Lord_Buscemi on Sept 10, 2024 13:43:05 GMT
Has literally a single person even said this?
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Sept 10, 2024 13:47:00 GMT
Has literally a single person even said this? Go to r/politics and weep.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Sept 10, 2024 21:01:01 GMT
I’m trying so hard not to double over in fear and anxiety over what a second Trump Presidency could bring (Project 2025 horrifies me on every level), and it is only because I have actual hope of him getting his ass handed to him (again) that I’m able to keep my head up.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Sept 11, 2024 1:21:41 GMT
harris just cooked tf out of trump on roe v wade
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Post by dazed on Sept 11, 2024 1:33:02 GMT
harris is doing really well but man, don’t use the argument of ‘republicans that’ve worked with romney and bush support me’ to boost yourself up smh.
trump keeps digging himself a bigger hole at least
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 11, 2024 1:44:10 GMT
harris is doing really well but man, don’t use the argument of ‘republicans that’ve worked with romney and bush support me’ to boost yourself up smh. that's her appeal to the center and old-school Republicans. She can't win without those kinds of voters, especially in states like AZ where GOP registered voters far outweigh dems.
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Post by Archie on Sept 11, 2024 1:46:21 GMT
She looks gorgeous tonight. 14 not hot votes my ass.
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Post by Archie on Sept 11, 2024 1:53:21 GMT
This man is literally fucking retarded.
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 11, 2024 1:59:08 GMT
Harris is killing it, Trump is looking awful. "They are eating dogs". LOL
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Post by dazed on Sept 11, 2024 1:59:57 GMT
harris is doing really well but man, don’t use the argument of ‘republicans that’ve worked with romney and bush support me’ to boost yourself up smh. that's her appeal to the center and old-school Republicans. She can't win without those kinds of voters, especially in states like AZ where GOP registered voters far outweigh dems. idk. i don’t like the idea of linking yourself to two republicans that don’t have high approvals. sure it shows that you’re ‘not radical’, but there’s better ways to do it if you wanna go down that route. and i’m pre sure independents make up just as high of a percentage as republicans in arizona and i could see those kind of comparisons rubbing them the wrong way.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 11, 2024 2:00:14 GMT
"Trump was fired by 81 million people and clearly is having a very difficult time processing that"
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