|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 15:58:39 GMT
I'm still rooting for Andrew Scott for the Oscars tho' that is looking less likely by the minute Why? He was never predicted to be nominated here. His chances lie with the BAFTAs.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 10, 2024 15:58:53 GMT
Cooper's not great, but DiCaprio is actively awful. I'll take a Cooper nomination any day of the week over Karl Childers reborn. Enough of this SLING BLADE horseshit! I've talked to at least 20 or 25 people who saw that film, most film buffs and not casuals, and literally NONE of them thought it had anything even remotely resembling BBT's Karl Childers portrayal. Not all of them were fans of the performance, though most were, but they scoffed when I said someone in a film message board made that ridiculous complain. And if you think Cooper's profoundly superficial and empty Oscar-begging was better than DiCaprio giving one of the greatest performances of his career, then you really know less than nothing about acting. Then stop talking to me and put me on ignore. Seriously, if you like DiCaprio's performance, go for it, but all you do is bloviate your toxic bullshit just because someone else doesn't agree with you. Fuck off.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 16:00:10 GMT
Can mods ban @riverleaveselmius?
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 10, 2024 16:04:38 GMT
Can mods ban @riverleaveselmius? If they didn't when he was openly fantasizing about torturing people over Licorice Pizza I don’t think that they will now.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 16:16:52 GMT
Ensemble: American Fiction Barbie The Color Purple Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Alt: Saltburn. This category rarely nominates small casts so I think Poor Things, Past Lives, and The Holdovers are probably out. Actor: Bradley Cooper Leonardo DiCaprioColman Domingo Paul Giamatti Cillian Murphy Jeffrey Wright Alt: Andrew Scott. Actress: Lily Gladstone Greta LeeAnnete Bening Carey Mulligan Natalie PortmanMargot Robbie Emma Stone Alt: Margot Robbie. Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro Robert Downey Ryan Gosling Charles MeltonSterling K. Brown Mark RuffaloWillem Dafoe Alt: Sterling K. Brown or Dominic Sessa. Supporting Actress: Emily Blunt Danielle Brooks Jodie Foster Julianne MoorePenélope Cruz Da'Vine Joy Randolph Alt: Rosamund Pike. Ouch, pretty bad predictions.
|
|
|
Post by TylerDeneuve on Jan 10, 2024 16:17:23 GMT
Who is getting replaced at at the Oscars? There are usually a lot of differences.
2023 SAG (15/20)
Lead Actor 4/5
Lead Actress 3/5 Supporting Actor 3/5 Supportiing Actress 5/5
2022 SAG (14/20) Lead Actor 5/5
Lead Actress 3/5 Supporting Actor 2/5 Supporting Actress 2/5 2020 SAG (13/20)
Lead Actor 3/5 Lead Actress 3/5
Supporting Actor 4/5
Supporting Actress 3/5
Exactly. A ton of nominees tonight will miss. IMHO only Giamatti, Murphy, RDJ, Gosling, Gladstone, Stone, and Randolph are actual locks. I wouldn't be too surprised if any of the other nominees get replaced I'd throw in Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan, and Danielle Brooks, but other than that, I agree with this statement. Awards discussion on the internet can be really frustrating.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 10, 2024 16:19:38 GMT
Ensemble: American Fiction Barbie The Color Purple Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Alt: Saltburn. This category rarely nominates small casts so I think Poor Things, Past Lives, and The Holdovers are probably out. Ouch, pretty bad predictions. Still, well done on Ensemble. I had thought The Color Purple was DOA with it consistently failing the guilds.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 16:21:23 GMT
I'd throw in Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan, and Danielle Brooks, but other than that, I agree with this statement. Awards discussion on the internet can be really frustrating. These three look safe but I feel that Maestro and The Color Purple have less passion than the big 4 so I wouldn't call them locks. Besides, at least one contender will miss despite hitting all the precusors. That statistic has been true almost every single year.
|
|
|
Post by ibbi on Jan 10, 2024 16:32:25 GMT
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Jan 10, 2024 16:41:21 GMT
Cruz got AACTA and SAG. Two big precursors. Bit of a weird haul, but she’s gotten in with less in the past.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 10, 2024 16:58:51 GMT
Ouch, pretty bad predictions. Still, well done on Ensemble. I had thought The Color Purple was DOA with it consistently failing the guilds. SAG is kind of it's own bubble within the industry I feel like it. Actors are a different breed.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 17:03:11 GMT
Ouch, pretty bad predictions. Still, well done on Ensemble. I had thought The Color Purple was DOA with it consistently failing the guilds. It was kind of a default choice. SAG almost never nominates small casts and Saltburn didn't feel likely.
|
|
|
Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 10, 2024 17:05:24 GMT
I deleted the message Stephen replied to cuz I've been trying for a long time here not to post insulting comments ONLY cuz I disagree with someone's opinion (no matter how strongly). But I got some shitty family news this morning and I'm just a fucking powder keg right now. So, I guess I got triggered too easily.
That being said, I still have ZERO problem roasting, mocking, and insulting posts of people who I fucking DESPISE for reasons that go beyond just awful movie tastes (though there's that too, lol), so I'm A-OK leaving my other reply on this thread intact. 👌
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 10, 2024 17:05:41 GMT
If I had to make a guess on the Oscars now... ActorMurphy Cooper Giamatti Wright Scott (my NGNG prediction all season) ActressStone Gladstone Mulligan Robbie Huller Supporting ActorRDJ Gosling De Niro Dafoe Ruffalo Supporting ActressRandolph Brooks Blunt Foster Cruz I think Supporting Actress is bound to confirm the SAG 5. Penelope Cruz seems more like that big name - that randomly pops up with SAG - i.e., Adam Sandler, Cate Blanchett, Ben Affleck, Jamie Foxx, Jared Leto. But none repeated with Oscar.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 10, 2024 17:10:27 GMT
If I had to make a guess on the Oscars now... ActorMurphy Cooper Giamatti Wright Scott (my NGNG prediction all season) ActressStone Gladstone Mulligan Robbie Huller Supporting ActorRDJ Gosling De Niro Dafoe Ruffalo Supporting ActressRandolph Brooks Blunt Foster Cruz I think Supporting Actress is bound to confirm the SAG 5. Penelope Cruz seems more like that big name - that randomly pops up - i.e., Adam Sandler, Cate Blanchett, Ben Affleck, Jamie Foxx, Jared Leto. But none repeated with Oscar. The only thing that gives me pause is that Viola Davis would've fit that bill more readily. The fact is was for Cruz specifically, and for Ferrari (which I am surprised missed in Stunts, considering Rush and Ford v. Ferrari both made it), makes me think there's a glimmer that she can get in. The Oscars really, really like her. That said, I'm still not predicting her, but I think this is the death knell for Ferrera's chances, as SAG would've been where she'd show up. I don't see her making it past the BAFTA jury.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 10, 2024 17:27:35 GMT
Penelope Cruz seems more like that big name - that randomly pops up - i.e., Adam Sandler, Cate Blanchett, Ben Affleck, Jamie Foxx, Jared Leto. But none repeated with Oscar. The only thing that gives me pause is that Viola Davis would've fit that bill more readily. The fact is was for Cruz specifically, and for Ferrari (which I am surprised missed in Stunts, considering Rush and Ford v. Ferrari both made it), makes me think there's a glimmer that she can get in. The Oscars really, really like her. That said, I'm still not predicting her, but I think this is the death knell for Ferrera's chances, as SAG would've been where she'd show up. I don't see her making it past the BAFTA jury. The Oscars even like Blanchett more and Nightmare Alley was a Best Picture nominee. Cruz here is too random. If she was in a stronger film, possibly, but Ferrari is not.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 17:32:18 GMT
The only thing that gives me pause is that Viola Davis would've fit that bill more readily. The fact is was for Cruz specifically, and for Ferrari (which I am surprised missed in Stunts, considering Rush and Ford v. Ferrari both made it), makes me think there's a glimmer that she can get in. The Oscars really, really like her. That said, I'm still not predicting her, but I think this is the death knell for Ferrera's chances, as SAG would've been where she'd show up. I don't see her making it past the BAFTA jury. The Oscars even like Blanchett more and Nightmare Alley was a Best Picture nominee. Cruz here is too random. If she was in a stronger film, possibly, but Ferrari is not. I agree. I don't see Cruz having any realistic chances at all. The only time she got nominated out of nowhere was Parallel Mothers for which she won LA and NSFC, indicating some passion. But Ferrari? Not really.
|
|
|
Post by thomasjerome on Jan 10, 2024 17:41:07 GMT
The Oscars even like Blanchett more and Nightmare Alley was a Best Picture nominee. Cruz here is too random. If she was in a stronger film, possibly, but Ferrari is not. I agree. I don't see Cruz having any realistic chances at all. The only time she got nominated out of nowhere was Parallel Mothers for which she won LA and NSFC, indicating some passion. But Ferrari? Not really. She was the first runner-up at NSFC this year.
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Jan 10, 2024 17:43:17 GMT
They could have easily chosen Moore, Ferrera or McAdams instead of Cruz, but they didn't. Blanchett isn't comparable, Nightmare Alley was failed bait but that performance was still very much SAG friendly. I just don't see who would replace her, because, as stephen said, Ferrera's path was through SAG, and Moore shouldn't have missed here. This is not a Negga in Passing situation, imo.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 17:50:59 GMT
I agree. I don't see Cruz having any realistic chances at all. The only time she got nominated out of nowhere was Parallel Mothers for which she won LA and NSFC, indicating some passion. But Ferrari? Not really. She was the first runner-up at NSFC this year. Yes but that's not a win. She's also not longlisted at the BAFTAs so she will only have SAG nom + NSFC RU at best. Not exactly a strong combo.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 17:53:59 GMT
They could have easily chosen Moore, Ferrera or McAdams instead of Cruz, but they didn't. Blanchett isn't comparable, Nightmare Alley was failed bait but that performance was still very much SAG friendly. I just don't see who would replace her, because, as stephen said, Ferrera's path was through SAG, and Moore shouldn't have missed here. This is not a Negga in Passing situation, imo. BAFTA can easily nominate Moore, Pike or Foy. In fact I'd say that's quite likely. I really don't see Cruz getting in with just a SAG nom.
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Jan 10, 2024 18:03:01 GMT
They could have easily chosen Moore, Ferrera or McAdams instead of Cruz, but they didn't. Blanchett isn't comparable, Nightmare Alley was failed bait but that performance was still very much SAG friendly. I just don't see who would replace her, because, as stephen said, Ferrera's path was through SAG, and Moore shouldn't have missed here. This is not a Negga in Passing situation, imo. BAFTA can easily nominate Moore, Pike or Foy. In fact I'd say that's quite likely. I really don't see Cruz getting in with just a SAG nom. The one who replaces her would be just as weak, on paper. Moore would merely have a BAFTA longlist mention more than Cruz, which isn't much, and it wouldn't compensate for Moore's miss at SAG, which to me is a big red flag. It's not like there's a big name lurking from behind, Ferrera is in a much bigger movie but she doesn't have the status nor the role to replace Cruz after missing SAG.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 10, 2024 18:06:35 GMT
I deleted the message Stephen replied to cuz I've been trying for a long time here not to post insulting comments ONLY cuz I disagree with someone's opinion (no matter how strongly). But I got some shitty family news this morning and I'm just a fucking powder keg right now. So, I guess I got triggered too easily. That being said, I still have ZERO problem roasting, mocking, and insulting posts of people who I fucking DESPISE for reasons that go beyond just awful movie tastes (though there's that too, lol), so I'm A-OK leaving my other reply on this thread intact. 👌 You are literally always a powder keg. Your posts in this thread are indistinguishable from your normal rants. You would think you got horrible family news every morning. It’s not normal or healthy to “DESPISE” people on a movie message board.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2024 18:08:27 GMT
BAFTA can easily nominate Moore, Pike or Foy. In fact I'd say that's quite likely. I really don't see Cruz getting in with just a SAG nom. The one who replaces her would be just as weak, on paper. Moore would merely have a BAFTA longlist mention more than Cruz, which isn't much, and it wouldn't compensate for Moore's miss at SAG, which to me is a big red flag. It's not like there's a big name lurking from behind, Ferrera is in a much bigger movie but she doesn't have the status nor the role to replace Cruz after missing SAG. I don't see how Moore is just as weak as Cruz. She did get a globe nomination, and May December is at least pretty safe in original screenplay with much stronger reviews. If Cruz gets in she would most likely be Ferrari's lone nomination. That doesn't invite any confidence.
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Jan 10, 2024 18:12:12 GMT
The one who replaces her would be just as weak, on paper. Moore would merely have a BAFTA longlist mention more than Cruz, which isn't much, and it wouldn't compensate for Moore's miss at SAG, which to me is a big red flag. It's not like there's a big name lurking from behind, Ferrera is in a much bigger movie but she doesn't have the status nor the role to replace Cruz after missing SAG. I don't see how Moore is just as weak as Cruz. She did get a globe nomination, and May December is at least pretty safe in original screenplay with much stronger reviews. If Cruz gets in she would most likely be Ferrari's lone nomination. That doesn't invite any confidence. Cruz's SAG nom counterbalances Moore's Globe nod. Yes, the movie might be slightly stronger but to me tanking at SAG, where it could have legitimately claimed a couple of noms, is a bigger deal. Not saying Moore has no chance, I'm saying that I see Cruz getting in over her.
|
|