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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 5, 2024 12:11:10 GMT
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 5, 2024 12:11:34 GMT
Portman, McAdams, Henson, Dafoe and Melton miss.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2024 12:15:15 GMT
BARRY.
Also love that Cara Jade Myers mention. With all of my issues with that movie, her performance wasn't among them.
I am certainly feeling more and more confident in All of Us Strangers overperforming here and riding that momentum to the Oscars.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 5, 2024 12:19:55 GMT
BARRY. Also love that Cara Jade Myers mention. With all of my issues with that movie, her performance wasn't among them. I am certainly feeling more and more confident in All of Us Strangers overperforming here and riding that momentum to the Oscars.In what categories though?? I still can't see it getting a single above the line nom. Especially now that Barbie is going adapted. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2024 12:22:18 GMT
BARRY. Also love that Cara Jade Myers mention. With all of my issues with that movie, her performance wasn't among them. I am certainly feeling more and more confident in All of Us Strangers overperforming here and riding that momentum to the Oscars.In what categories though?? I still can't see it getting a single above the line nom. Especially now that Barbie is going adapted. Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay (I still think that can happen, as the weird musical chairs of that category make me think it's ripe for a possible shock snub of a hitherto "safe" prediction). |
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Jan 5, 2024 12:39:32 GMT
Oof. No Melton and Dafoe.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 5, 2024 12:42:26 GMT
Melton melts.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 12:47:12 GMT
Aka why Melton is not, and never should've been considered a lock.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 12:48:11 GMT
Shame on BAFTA for accepting the Barbie in Original nonsense.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 5, 2024 12:48:55 GMT
Aka why Melton is not, and never should've been considered a lock. I'm not sure anyone here was... |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 5, 2024 12:49:24 GMT
In what categories though?? I still can't see it getting a single above the line nom. Especially now that Barbie is going adapted. Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay (I still think that can happen, as the weird musical chairs of that category make me think it's ripe for a possible shock snub of a hitherto "safe" prediction). Can't agree with you there, but will be interesting to see how things play out. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 5, 2024 12:49:38 GMT
SESSAAAAAAAA
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2024 12:51:21 GMT
Aka why Melton is not, and never should've been considered a lock. I'm not sure anyone here was... I've seen people throwing the "L" word out in the ether when he won the first trifecta prize. |
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Post by Archie on Jan 5, 2024 12:53:00 GMT
Aka why Melton is not, and never should've been considered a lock. I'm not sure anyone here was... People here thought his spot was more secure than De Niro. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2024 12:56:51 GMT
I'm not sure anyone here was... People here thought his spot was more secure than De Niro. I mean, that might be true. De Niro missing so consistently in regionals (which should be more geared towards Killers in general) is a trend that I could see panning out in the industry awards, though him making the longlist here is at least a good sign for him. Still, he doesn't strike me as a jury pick for these guys so he'd have to be in the top two vote-getters to get the BAFTA nod, right? |
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 13:04:23 GMT
People here thought his spot was more secure than De Niro. I mean, that might be true. De Niro missing so consistently in regionals (which should be more geared towards Killers in general) is a trend that I could see panning out in the industry awards, though him making the longlist here is at least a good sign for him. Still, he doesn't strike me as a jury pick for these guys so he'd have to be in the top two vote-getters to get the BAFTA nod, right? Top 3 now. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 13:07:13 GMT
Aka why Melton is not, and never should've been considered a lock. I'm not sure anyone here was... "Yeppppp. Dafoe as the only one who can spoil" Your exact words to a prediction of Gosling, Ruffalo, De Niro, Downey and Melton. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 13:28:03 GMT
People here thought his spot was more secure than De Niro. I mean, that might be true. De Niro missing so consistently in regionals (which should be more geared towards Killers in general) is a trend that I could see panning out in the industry awards, though him making the longlist here is at least a good sign for him. I mean it hard to argue Melton is over him currently given he couldn't make the top ten here, and additionally De Niro's record with the regional has been improving somewhat. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 5, 2024 13:36:49 GMT
Hisaishi missing is some bullshit.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2024 13:38:34 GMT
I mean, that might be true. De Niro missing so consistently in regionals (which should be more geared towards Killers in general) is a trend that I could see panning out in the industry awards, though him making the longlist here is at least a good sign for him. I mean it hard to argue Melton is over him currently given he couldn't make the top ten here, and additionally De Niro's record with the regional has been improving somewhat. is a film with much broader appeal than May December, so by rights De Niro should be cleaning up nominations with the more populist regionals, whose only existence seems to be designed to be Oscar prognosticators. But he hasn't been. He might be doing better than he was at the start (although I wonder how much of that might be reacting to his blanking throughout the season; you can't tell me these critics' groups aren't looking at the others and seeing what's happening), but generally speaking, regionals tend to recognize the "safe" choices and maybe throw a passion pick into the mix here and there. I also think Melton strikes me as somehow who has more passion for his performance than De Niro does. The question has always been what May December's footprint will be with the Academy. I can still see a scenario where it gets fully blanked (yes, even in a Barbie-less screenplay category, I can see that happening) and I can just as easily see it getting Picture/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress/Screenplay (still can't quite see Portman getting in, but that might be my bias speaking). So with all of that said, I think they're pretty even-handed at the moment. De Niro hasn't yet gotten the BAFTA nomination, he only made the longlist (and he's in a category where I think RDJ, Gosling and Ruffalo are all above him, and there's several performances in there that sound ripe for jury picks). If he misses BAFTA after this, then it was a non-factor, and I do think Melton is a more SAG-friendly performance than BAFTA. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 5, 2024 13:49:56 GMT
Eh I think Melton is still in. They probably just didn’t care for May December here. Hsu missed the longlist last year too and Cruz the year before. If he misses SAG too then I might take him off my predictions and go with whoever gets the SAG nomination.
Portman seems pretty far behind though. The only one who looks safe at this point is Moore.
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Post by ibbi on Jan 5, 2024 13:52:06 GMT
I have never been more proud of my country than I was when I saw they didn't let that plank of wood from May December get a look in (NO, NOT PORTMAN! HOW COULD THEY LEAVE HER OUT?! STUPID FUCKS!)
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 5, 2024 13:53:08 GMT
If she gets nominated here, I see Foy taking that last supporting actress spot.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 5, 2024 14:00:31 GMT
Thrilled for Cara Jade Myers and Sessa.
Hit for Melton but I’ll still have him in 5th for now since Dafoe missed too.
Pretty good showing for Holdovers considering Bafta never really liked Payne.
Not terribly surprised about American Fiction given their history.
Bad day for May December. Haynes movies tend to not do well at the industry awards.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 5, 2024 14:08:02 GMT
Idk what people see in Cara Jade Myers. I thought she was awful in the film.
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