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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 14:24:05 GMT
I mean it hard to argue Melton is over him currently given he couldn't make the top ten here, and additionally De Niro's record with the regional has been improving somewhat. Killers is a film with much broader appeal than May December, so by rights De Niro should be cleaning up nominations with the more populist regionals, whose only existence seems to be designed to be Oscar prognosticators. But he hasn't been. He might be doing better than he was at the start (although I wonder how much of that might be reacting to his blanking throughout the season; you can't tell me these critics' groups aren't looking at the others and seeing what's happening), but generally speaking, regionals tend to recognize the "safe" choices and maybe throw a passion pick into the mix here and there. I also think Melton strikes me as somehow who has more passion for his performance than De Niro does. The question has always been what May December's footprint will be with the Academy. I can still see a scenario where it gets fully blanked (yes, even in a Barbie-less screenplay category, I can see that happening) and I can just as easily see it getting Picture/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress/Screenplay (still can't quite see Portman getting in, but that might be my bias speaking). So with all of that said, I think they're pretty even-handed at the moment. De Niro hasn't yet gotten the BAFTA nomination, he only made the longlist (and he's in a category where I think RDJ, Gosling and Ruffalo are all above him, and there's several performances in there that sound ripe for jury picks). If he misses BAFTA after this, then it was a non-factor, and I do think Melton is a more SAG-friendly performance than BAFTA. I'd say you're unplaying this miss by Melton a bit, it's one thing to miss a five based on non-academy voters like a regional critics groups but to miss a ten based on a group with academy overlap? That's a major miss no matter how you shake it, and suggests there's no passion for him whatsoever with the British bloc.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 14:39:17 GMT
For the record performances that received an Oscar nomination after missing the BAFTA longlist (since they have returned).
Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie Stephanie Hsu - EEAO Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2024 14:52:56 GMT
For the record performances that received an Oscar nomination after missing the BAFTA longlist (since they have returned). Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie Stephanie Hsu - EEAO Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans Remind me -- did BAFTA also have the Academy's idiotic extension in the COVID year as well? I coulda sworn Andra Day missed because of a release date issue in the UK.
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Post by futuretrunks on Jan 5, 2024 15:35:22 GMT
Melton was mediocre in most of the movie, so this is refreshing.
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tylosaur
New Member
Posts: 183
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Post by tylosaur on Jan 5, 2024 15:48:12 GMT
I wonder if BAFTA voters don't vote Barbie into the final five for Original Screenplay as they see that the Oscars have now deemed it Adapted.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 5, 2024 16:09:42 GMT
Mentions: Oppenheimer: 15 Barbie: 15 Killers: 15 Poor Things: 14 Maestro: 12 Saltburn: 11 Zone of Interest: 10 Strangers: 10 Holdovers: 7 Anatomy: 7 Past Lives: 6 Ferrari: 5 American Fiction: 4 Spider-Verse: 3 May December: 2 Color Purple: 2 Air: 1 Society: 1 Taste of Things: 1
For those wondering
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 16:09:59 GMT
For the record performances that received an Oscar nomination after missing the BAFTA longlist (since they have returned). Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie Stephanie Hsu - EEAO Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans Remind me -- did BAFTA also have the Academy's idiotic extension in the COVID year as well? I coulda sworn Andra Day missed because of a release date issue in the UK. They did as evidenced by Judas and the Black Messiah's 4 nominations.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 5, 2024 16:18:29 GMT
For the record performances that received an Oscar nomination after missing the BAFTA longlist (since they have returned). Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie Stephanie Hsu - EEAO Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans So 6 occasions out of 60 nominees. That's not too bad.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 16:18:32 GMT
Just noticed Zone of Interest missed Original Score, surprising.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 5, 2024 16:21:02 GMT
DeNiro is an industry legend in a top 3 film. He doesn't need regional groups to prop him up.
Melton was always fighting for the 5th spot. It will likely come down to him, Sessa, Dafoe, Brown, or Domingo.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 5, 2024 16:53:48 GMT
Bold = predicted nominees
BEST FILM
All of Us Strangers Anatomy of a Fall (5th) Barbie The Holdovers Killers of The Flower Moon (6th) Maestro Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things The Zone of Interest
DIRECTOR
Anatomy of a Fall All of Us Strangers American Fiction Barbie The Holdovers How to Have Sex Killers of The Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things Priscilla Rye Lane Saltburn Scrapper The Zone of Interest
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Air Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Holdovers How to Have Sex Maestro May December Past Lives Rye Lane Saltburn
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All of Us Strangers American Fiction Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. Dumb Money The Killer Killers of The Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things Wonka The Zone of Interest
LEADING ACTRESS
Annette Bening, NYAD Carey Mulligan, Maestro Emma Stone, Poor Things Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple Greta Lee, Past Lives Lily Gladstone, Killers of The Flower Moon Margot Robbie, Barbie Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall Vivian Oparah, Rye Lane
LEADING ACTOR
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers Barry Keoghan, Saltburn Bradley Cooper, Maestro Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Colman Domingo, Rustin George MacKay, Femme Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of The Flower Moon Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Teo Yoo, Past Lives
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
America Ferrera, Barbie Cara Jade Myers, Killers of The Flower Moon Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer Jodie Foster, NYAD Julianne Moore, May December Rosamund Pike, Saltburn Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Anthony Hopkins, One Life Ben Whishaw, Passages Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers Jacob Elordi, Saltburn Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers Robert De Niro, Killers of The Flower Moon Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer Ryan Gosling, Barbie
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filmnoir
Full Member
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 5, 2024 16:58:32 GMT
It's not inconceivable that Melton ends up getting snubbed. His film isn't a major contender. He is a newcomer who is a TV actor on a teen drama. And it's not like he's been dominating the critics' awards - like Randolph.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 5, 2024 17:08:45 GMT
Just noticed Zone of Interest missed Original Score, surprising. Not eligible apparently. Don’t ask me why, just saw it on Twitter.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2024 17:11:59 GMT
Just noticed Zone of Interest missed Original Score, surprising. Not eligible apparently. Don’t ask me why, just saw it on Twitter. Isn't there some weird thing where there has to be a certain amount of score in a film for it to be eligible? I seem to recall one of these precursors had that restriction.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 5, 2024 17:13:01 GMT
Here’s what I’m thinking. The contenders with an asterisk next to their name are the tops in their categories (therefore officially getting nominated) imo.
Best Film Anatomy of a Fall Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things
Best Director Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things * Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer * Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall Celine Song, Past Lives
Best Actor Bradley Cooper, Maestro * Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers * Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer * Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Actress Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon * Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall * Greta Lee, Past Lives Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex Vivian Oparah, Rye Lane Emma Stone, Poor Things *
Best Supporting Actor Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer * Ryan Gosling, Barbie * Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things * Ben Whishaw, Passages
Best Supporting Actress Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer * Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn * Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers *
Best Adapted Screenplay All of Us Strangers Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things The Zone of Interest
Best Original Screenplay Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Holdovers Past Lives Saltburn
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 5, 2024 17:17:09 GMT
Did they ditch the diversity quota? All supporting actor mentions are white. I remember they had a rule last year about at least 1 nominee in each category being POC.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2024 17:23:28 GMT
My predicted nominees:
BEST FILM: All of Us Strangers Anatomy of a Fall Barbie Oppenheimer Poor Things
DIRECTOR: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers Martin Scorsese, Killers of The Flower Moon Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Holdovers How to Have Sex Past Lives
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: All of Us Strangers American Fiction Killers of The Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things
LEADING ACTRESS: Emma Stone, Poor Things Greta Lee, Past Lives Lily Gladstone, Killers of The Flower Moon Margot Robbie, Barbie Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall Vivian Oparah, Rye Lane
LEADING ACTOR: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers Barry Keoghan, Saltburn Bradley Cooper, Maestro Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Teo Yoo, Past Lives
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers Jodie Foster, NYAD Rosamund Pike, Saltburn Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer Ryan Gosling, Barbie
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 5, 2024 18:07:48 GMT
For the record performances that received an Oscar nomination after missing the BAFTA longlist (since they have returned). Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie Stephanie Hsu - EEAO Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans I think of these only Hsu made SAG. I think I’m going with Sessa there instead of him for the newcomer slot. Still Melton at Oscar at the moment though. The industry doesn’t really like Haynes but his actors usually do well
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 21:24:15 GMT
For the record performances that received an Oscar nomination after missing the BAFTA longlist (since they have returned). Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie Stephanie Hsu - EEAO Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans I think of these only Hsu made SAG. I think I’m going with Sessa there instead of him for the newcomer slot. Still Melton at Oscar at the moment though. The industry doesn’t really like Haynes but his actors usually do well Tell that to Dennis Quaid, which Melton's trajectory is becoming eerily similar to at the moment.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 5, 2024 23:20:52 GMT
And decided to have a look for the sake of Joe Hisaishi's chances.
The Following films were Oscar nominated after missing the Original Score Longlist:
Encanto Parallel Mothers The Fabelmans
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 5, 2024 23:29:10 GMT
I think of these only Hsu made SAG. I think I’m going with Sessa there instead of him for the newcomer slot. Still Melton at Oscar at the moment though. The industry doesn’t really like Haynes but his actors usually do well Tell that to Dennis Quaid, which Melton's trajectory is becoming eerily similar to at the moment. That’s why I said usually and not always. I don’t really like to compare trajectories, let alone ones 20 years apart.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 6, 2024 0:20:14 GMT
DeNiro is an industry legend in a top 3 film. He doesn't need regional groups to prop him up.
Melton was always fighting for the 5th spot. It will likely come down to him, Sessa, Dafoe, Brown, or Domingo.
One of these things is not like the others
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