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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 30, 2023 15:02:31 GMT
On September 30th, I asked you for your early bird Best Picture predictions. We had 11 films receiving at least 14 votes. You can view the results here. Has your Best Picture predictions changed or remained the same since then? The poll will expire on January 23rd, the morning of the Oscar nominations. Feel free to change your results.
Most Likely American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things
All eight films made AFI's Top Ten list and were nominated for both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for Best Motion Picture. Barbie, Killers, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things have received the most awards attention -- picture, directing, acting, writing, editing, and technical recognition. American Fiction won the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. 14 of the last 15 People's Choice winners has gone on land a Best Picture nomination.
Strong Contenders
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Boy and The Heron, The Color Purple, May December, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and The Zone of Interest
Except for the two animated features, all of them were nominated for either the Golden Globe or Critics Choice for Best Picture. The Boy and the Heron came in 3rd place at the Toronto International Film Festival and made the National Board of Review's Top Ten list. Spider-Man was able to get into the AFI Top Ten over Air, The Color Purple and Saltburn.
Since 2018, we have seen at least one "Non-English Language Film" getting into the Best Picture category. The two most likely candidates are Anatomy of a Fall (Golden Palm winner at the Cannes Film Festival) and The Zone of Interest (Los Angeles Film Critics Best Film Award winner).
Going to throw into the mix All of Us Strangers and Are You There? It's Me, Margaret. Both films were nominated for the Critics Choice for Best Adapted Screenplay and performed well among critics circle groups. Strangers won the LA Film Critics Best Screenplay award. The San Diego Film Critics Association named Margaret their top winner for Best Film, Best Supporting Actress (Rachel McAdams), and Best Adapted Screenplay. If we're going to see a left-field Best Picture nomination, those feel like solid candidates.
You're free to pick whoever you want. My list is merely suggestions. |
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Post by Pavan on Dec 30, 2023 15:17:47 GMT
Oppenheimer
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
American Fiction
Maestro
Past Lives
May December
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 30, 2023 15:18:00 GMT
Safe zone:
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Late surges:
Post-SAG: The Color Purple
Post-BAFTA: All of Us Strangers
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 30, 2023 15:24:24 GMT
Safe zone: Barbie The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things The Zone of Interest Late surges: Post-SAG: The Color Purple Post-BAFTA: All of Us Strangers Add American Fiction to the Safe Zone, and we agree. I am still sticking Fall for the 10th spot. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 30, 2023 15:51:00 GMT
I'd say it would make more sense to post this poll after PGA, DGA, SAG and BAFTA nominations. As I don't see how anyone can finalize their predictions before then.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 30, 2023 16:08:46 GMT
I'd say it would make more sense to post this poll after PGA, DGA, SAG and BAFTA nominations. As I don't see how anyone can finalize their predictions before then. You can always change your vote. Giving people a large window to make their selections and change their mind. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 30, 2023 16:11:05 GMT
I'd say it would make more sense to post this poll after PGA, DGA, SAG and BAFTA nominations. As I don't see how anyone can finalize their predictions before then. You can always change your vote. Giving people a large window to make their selections and change their mind. Well it's not really your FINAL predictions then though now is it. |
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allaby
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Post by allaby on Dec 30, 2023 16:40:57 GMT
Oppenheimer Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon The Holdovers Poor Things The Zone of Interest American Fiction Maestro Past Lives May December Same for me. |
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Dec 30, 2023 17:37:14 GMT
Shooting from the hip:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
I think Maestro could very well miss out. The reception has been good, not great (especially among audiences surprisingly) and most of the passion in the press and on social media has leaned negative. It has a larger platform to go off with Netflix and Cooper's name than half these contenders so it's still very much in the hunt, but I could see it failing to get enough high ballot placements to make the cut.
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Post by stephen on Dec 30, 2023 17:38:49 GMT
I think Maestro could very well miss out. This would be absolutely hilarious. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 30, 2023 18:17:12 GMT
Shooting from the hip: American FictionAnatomy of a FallBarbieThe HoldoversKillers of the Flower MoonMay DecemberOppenheimerPast LivesPoor ThingsThe Zone of InterestI think Maestro could very well miss out. The reception has been good, not great (especially among audiences surprisingly) and most of the passion in the press and on social media has leaned negative. It has a larger platform to go off with Netflix and Cooper's name than half these contenders so it's still very much in the hunt, but I could see it failing to get enough high ballot placements to make the cut. is the weakest of the Big Eight. While I enjoyed the movie a lot, I get why some people wouldn't like it. I believe this film has the lowest of the IMDB score. To me, I think this movie could get Moulin Rouge! treatment - make it into Best Picture, but get surprising left out for Director and Screenplay. Maestro is probably Netflix's best pony. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 30, 2023 18:43:42 GMT
I really wouldn't count Maestro out at all.
See 1:21:07. I know it's just one person but Emily Blunt bringing up Maestro specifically here just makes me feel that the industry is eating this up. It's also co-produced by Spielberg and Scorsese so you have all these people and Netflix promoting it. As much as I fucking hate the film I really don't see it missing. If anything it could even overperform.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 30, 2023 19:25:29 GMT
I really wouldn't count Maestro out at all.See 1:21:07. I know it's just one person but Emily Blunt bringing up Maestro specifically here just makes me feel that the industry is eating this up. It's also co-produced by Spielberg and Scorsese so you have all these people and Netflix promoting it. As much as I fucking hate the film I really don't see it missing. If anything it could even overperform. I agree. I think it is pretty safe for Best Picture, especially when you consider Cooper and Mulligan as sure-fire nominees for Best Actor and Actress. People here might not like the movie, but the industry really really loved the film. The big eight is pretty locked in. |
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Post by Mattsby on Dec 30, 2023 20:52:26 GMT
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
All of Us Strangers
Poor Things
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
The Zone of Interest
Are You There God It’s Me Margaret (my thinking is that the older voters who would/might vote for Barbie will instead tilt toward this)
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Post by JangoB on Dec 30, 2023 21:35:09 GMT
Killers of the Flower Moon The Holdovers Oppenheimer Past Lives All of Us Strangers Poor Things American Fiction Anatomy of a Fall The Zone of Interest Are You There God It’s Me Margaret (my thinking is that the older voters who would/might vote for Barbie will instead tilt toward this) Never change, mate!  |
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Post by JangoB on Dec 30, 2023 21:36:44 GMT
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
I want to predict The Color Purple too but I'm not sure what to remove right now.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 30, 2023 22:04:36 GMT
I really wouldn't count Maestro out at all.See 1:21:07. I know it's just one person but Emily Blunt bringing up Maestro specifically here just makes me feel that the industry is eating this up. It's also co-produced by Spielberg and Scorsese so you have all these people and Netflix promoting it. As much as I fucking hate the film I really don't see it missing. If anything it could even overperform. I agree. I think it is pretty safe for Best Picture, especially when you consider Cooper and Mulligan as sure-fire nominees for Best Actor and Actress. People here might not like the movie, but the industry really really loved the film. The big eight is pretty locked in. Mulligan is not AT ALL a sure-fire nominee. The only LOCKS in Lead Actress are Stone and Gladstone. If Robbie makes SAG, you can add her as the 3rd lock. But for now, there are like 6 or 7 actresses fighting for 3 available slots. Mulligan is one of them. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 30, 2023 22:46:09 GMT
- American Fiction - Anatomy of a Fall - Barbie - The Holdovers - Killers of the Flower Moon - Maestro - Oppenheimer - Past Lives - Poor Things - The Zone of Interest I want to predict The Color Purple too but I'm not sure what to remove right now. Those are my picks too -- sticking with my original predictions. The Big 8 feel very secure. Zone has that importance factor going for it, and it is getting rave reviews. 92% on RT. 8.0/10 IMDB. Metacritic is 91/100. The 10th pick could go in a number of directions. Fall feels safe because of Huller's strong performance and its Golden Globe nominations for Drama, Actress, and Screenplay. Personally I would love to see Air get in there, but I feel like that's wishful thinking. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 30, 2023 23:13:22 GMT
Yeah, sticking with the 10 I had earlier, same as Jango's and Fease's.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 31, 2023 16:51:57 GMT
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 31, 2023 20:48:37 GMT
let's just call these the final BP predictions of 2023  mine are literally just the GoldDerby odds with May December, Air and Color Purple being the spoilers. American FictionAnatomy of a FallBarbieThe HoldoversKillers of the Flower MoonMaestroOppenheimer (#1) Past LivesPoor ThingsThe Zone of interestWould love for the Haynes to slip in |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 1, 2024 11:33:58 GMT
let's just call these the final BP predictions of 2023 mine are literally just the GoldDerby odds with May December, Air and Color Purple being the spoilers. American FictionAnatomy of a FallBarbieThe HoldoversKillers of the Flower MoonMaestroOppenheimer (#1) Past LivesPoor ThingsThe Zone of interestWould love for the Haynes to slip in Smart picks. Glad to see GD going with my original October predictions.
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