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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 30, 2023 17:09:38 GMT
Last year I asked the same question. We ended up getting 8 out of 10 correct. Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front placed 12th and 13th on our list. Lets see if we can improve on those numbers this year and get either 9/10 or 10/10 correct. The poll will expire on December 1st. You have plenty of time to change your answers.
Festival Winners A Thousand and One - Sundance Drama Anatomy of a Fall - Palme d'Or The Zone of Interest - Grand Prix Poor Things - Golden Lion, Silver Medallion
El Conde - Golden Osella for Best Screenplay Priscilla - Volpi Cup for Best Actress American Fiction - People's Choice Award
The Holdovers - People's Choice Award Runner-up
The Boy and the Heron - People's Choice Award Runner-up
Gold Derby Top Ten Best Picture predictions (combined rankings)
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. Barbie
5. The Holdovers
6. Maestro
7. American Fiction 8. Past Lives
9. The Color Purple
10. Anatomy of a Fall
Wildcards Air - Great reviews, Ben Affleck Dad movie
All of Us Strangers - Andrew Scott's performance
Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. - Great reviews, based on a popular/controversial book
The Bikeriders -Jodie Comer's performance
May December - Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore performances
Napoleon - Historical biopic from Ridley Scott
Nyad - Annette Bening and Jodie Foster performances
Rustin - Colman Domingo's performance
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Great reviews, box-office smash hit.
You're free to pick anybody you want. Above are just suggestions. I made sure to include international features, festival winners, and films receiving strong buzz from the acting, directing, writing, and editing categories.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 30, 2023 17:37:07 GMT
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
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Post by JangoB on Sept 30, 2023 18:12:48 GMT
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Color Purple
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
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speeders
Based
Posts: 4,096 
Likes: 2,214
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Post by speeders on Oct 1, 2023 1:06:13 GMT
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Barbie
Maestro
The Color Purple
The Zone of Interest
American Fiction
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 1, 2023 1:20:13 GMT
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Alt: Past Lives
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 1, 2023 14:05:50 GMT
American Fiction Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Poor Things The Zone of Interest Alt: Past Lives Good list |
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 2, 2023 15:51:26 GMT
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
The Holdovers
The Color Purple
Maestro
All Of Us Strangers
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 21, 2023 13:31:11 GMT
Scott Feinberg's (I know, I know) with Iron Claw, Napoleon, Color Purple to be seen:
Category
Best Picture
Frontrunners
American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
Past Lives (A24)
Maestro (Netflix)
The Holdovers (Focus)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 21, 2023 18:39:48 GMT
Looks like The Bikeriders will be released in 2024 and eligible for the 2025 Oscars. It looks like Fox is going to focus on Poor Things and All of Us Strangers as their main ponies.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 21, 2023 19:56:51 GMT
Apparently Zone of Interest isn't playing that well for voters. More respect than love.
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 21, 2023 21:17:13 GMT
Apparently Zone of Interest isn't playing that well for voters. More respect than love. Where did you hear that? |
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 21, 2023 21:30:44 GMT
Apparently Zone of Interest isn't playing that well for voters. More respect than love. Where did you hear that? Someone in the know over at AW. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 21, 2023 21:49:49 GMT
I’ve been saying that about Zone of Interest for a while now. People who have actually seen it have been saying it’s not that kind of thing since Cannes.
If there was a void of critically acclaimed films this year I like it’s odds of being one of those passion picks but there are tons of other high brow options.
Director maybe though
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 21, 2023 22:03:53 GMT
I have no doubt that Zone of Interest might miss .........but every year it's the same stuff - "some people" didn't respond to it......EEAAO can't win because "older" voters don't like it etc.
It's just a matter of what prcentage of the voting pool that is and what you choose to believe......
Side note: I posted a pic of Tarantino 2 days ago in quite a political photo - nobody took it down because the times maybe call for leaving that photo up, yanno? With that in mind the state of the world may influence the film being nominated .......
Side note 2: The state of the world of course matters more than the movie but ......well you get my point
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 21, 2023 22:23:39 GMT
I have no doubt that Zone of Interest might miss .........but every year it's the same stuff - "some people" didn't respond to it......EEAAO can't win because "older" voters don't like it etc. It's just a matter of what prcentage of the voting pool that is and what you choose to believe...... Side note: I posted a pic of Tarantino 2 days ago in quite a political photo - nobody took it down because the times maybe call for leaving that photo up, yanno? With that in mind the state of the world may influence the film being nominated ....... Side note 2: The state of the world of course matters more than the movie but ......well you get my point What point are you trying to make? That people speculate on the Oscar’s based on the opinions of people who have seen the movie and that is bad because… some people were hesitant about EEAAO?What does that have to do with Zone of Interest? |
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 21, 2023 22:47:34 GMT
Someone in the know over at AW. Thanks. Always appreciate your insider knowledge. Here's my rankings:
1. Oppenheimer 2. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Poor Things 4. Barbie 5. American Fiction (Tiff winner)
6. The Holdovers
7. Past Lives 8. Maestro 9. Anatomy of a Fall (the non-English language entry) 10. The Zone of Interest
Maybe maybe - Air, Color Purple, Napoleon, and All of Us Strangers
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 21, 2023 22:56:51 GMT
I have no doubt that Zone of Interest might miss .........but every year it's the same stuff - "some people" didn't respond to it......EEAAO can't win because "older" voters don't like it etc. It's just a matter of what prcentage of the voting pool that is and what you choose to believe...... Side note: I posted a pic of Tarantino 2 days ago in quite a political photo - nobody took it down because the times maybe call for leaving that photo up, yanno? With that in mind the state of the world may influence the film being nominated ....... Side note 2: The state of the world of course matters more than the movie but ......well you get my point That people speculate on the Oscar’s based on the opinions of people who have seen the movie and that is bad because… some people were hesitant about EEAAO?What does that have to do with Zone of Interest? I am not "trying" to make a point - rather I'm making it exactly as I intended: We don't know what percentage of the gossip we hear translates to the voting sample size or how that equates to how far down they will place ZoI - therefore you have to balance that with your gut. I didn't say it was bad - YOU DID - I just said it "was".......this was my line of work for many years, statistical analysis............ What I did say is that the political unrest regarding the attacks in Israel could play in its favor - we just don't know -......EEAAO vs. Zone of Interest similarity is clear from that explanation.........we of course don't know whether we can trust the ZoI gossip more, but the basic comparison is quite simple.  |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 22, 2023 1:53:18 GMT
What point are you trying to make? That people speculate on the Oscar’s based on the opinions of people who have seen the movie and that is bad because… some people were hesitant about EEAAO?What does that have to do with Zone of Interest? I am not "trying" to make a point - rather I'm making it exactly as I intended: We don't know what percentage of the gossip we hear translates to the voting sample size or how that equates to how far down they will place ZoI - therefore you have to balance that with your gut. I didn't say it was bad - YOU DID - I just said it "was".......this was my line of work for many years, statistical analysis............ What I did say is that the political unrest regarding the attacks in Israel could play in its favor - we just don't know -......EEAAO vs. Zone of Interest similarity is clear from that explanation.........we of course don't know whether we can trust the ZoI gossip more, but the basic comparison is quite simple. But like what makes you think everybody doesn’t also know this? We make predictions based on the information we have and our “gut”. You can look back (in this very thread in fact and others) and see I’ve had doubts about its Oscar chances the whole time. Not because of this leak from AW. I’m fact pretty much anybody who knows the Oscar’s knows they can’t know for sure and it’s just feeling at this point in the race. Nobody here saying it’s a lock one way or another. That’s why I don’t see what point you are trying to make. Everybody knows this already. Your Israel/ Palestine point is fine. I don’t think it will matter but it is what it is. The rest was just a whole lot of nothing. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 22, 2023 9:10:13 GMT
What point are you trying to make? That people speculate on the Oscar’s based on the opinions of people who have seen the movie and that is bad because… some people were hesitant about EEAAO?What does that have to do with Zone of Interest? I am not "trying" to make a point - rather I'm making it exactly as I intended: We don't know what percentage of the gossip we hear translates to the voting sample size or how that equates to how far down they will place ZoI - therefore you have to balance that with your gut. I didn't say it was bad - YOU DID - I just said it "was".......this was my line of work for many years, statistical analysis............ What I did say is that the political unrest regarding the attacks in Israel could play in its favor - we just don't know -......EEAAO vs. Zone of Interest similarity is clear from that explanation.........we of course don't know whether we can trust the ZoI gossip more, but the basic comparison is quite simple. Also, in addition to the political / culturall climate and the stratafication of the potential sample size and "going with your gut" blah blah blah - ZoI could have a lingering effect this year where people come around o it (maybe): It is a serious historical film that is also short (106 minutes) - an oddity this year - and seems like the kind of thing that people distance themselves from at first but think back on with more resonance......... that's possible I think as the movie gets free press from an international political situation................ on the other hand it isn't likely to encourage a 2nd viewing if you just respected it at first. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 2, 2023 1:53:36 GMT
Bump. Its been a month since I posted this. Gold Derby moved from American Fiction from #11 to #8.
Our top ten so far:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Barbie, The Holdovers & Poor Things
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Maestro
7. American Fiction & The Color Purple
9. Anatomy of a Fall
10. The Zone of Interest
11. Past Lives
12. Spider-Man
13. The Boy and the Heron, Priscilla, Air, All of Us Strangers
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 28, 2023 22:08:20 GMT
I'm going to do these as if they were my Goldderby. In order of likelyhood
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Holdovers
Barbie
Maestro
The Color Purple
American Fiction
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Zone of Interest in 11th. I went with Anatomy because stronger writing and acting nod chances. I like All of Us Strangers too but it's a tough year.
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 29, 2023 0:25:31 GMT
Poll expires on December 1st. Please put in your final guesses.
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allaby
New Member
Posts: 61
Likes: 17
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Post by allaby on Nov 29, 2023 1:03:21 GMT
My current predictions:
(in alphabetical order)
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
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