May 2023: Who wins Best Picture?

Probably something from Toronto by a director we barely know that isn’t on our radar yet. But I’ll say Killers of the Flower Moon for now since it’s the mostly likely to at least be in the top 3.

I wish it was me and Stephen to continue the legacy, but alas. 

I actually am torn among half a dozen different directions.

I feel like Killers of the Flower Moon smacks of the early declarative frontrunner that everyone and their mother expects to ride on the legacy of its filmmaker, the way we saw with The Irishman, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood and The Fabelmans. The thing is, I feel like Scorsese kinda blew his wad with the "It's time!" narrative of his win in 2006, and everything after that has been largely afterglow... but I don't feel there is a general rush to recognize him again. It could happen, absolutely, but I think it's so hard to build on an overdue narrative if you've already won on the back of that before. Scorsese needs to be undeniable this year. And something tells me that despite this film's pedigree and the fact it's been scrutinized for Oscars from the start and it has Apple+ behind it, I'm still gonna predict it gets close but ultimately misses.

Oppenheimer feels like the sort of thing that, if the Academy was ever going to embrace Nolan, now is the time to do it. It is going to be Dune: Part Two's biggest rival with the techs, there is a strong possibility of it being a heavy SAG Ensemble player (because half of Hollywood is in it), and there's enough of a groundswell of support for Nolan out there that I can see him getting that sort of unstoppable buzz. The film just has to sustain it for a longer period of time, and as we saw with Dunkirk, he peaked early when if it had been released later in the year, he might've been able to snatch the win more readily.

Dune: Part Two feels like it could easily go the Return of the King route, and it's arguable that Villeneuve is building up a bit of a narrative himself. The thing is, he's already talking about wanting to do a third film and despite the first film being so dominant with wins, he missed out there. Does he make up for it this time? I would say it's likely he gets the nomination and is potentially in line for the win if it repeats its tech success, but I feel it's likelier we see a Picture/Director split with something else winning Picture.

The Color Purple... I mean, there is obviously a lot of buzz surrounding it and there may be a perception of "righting the mistakes" of the original film's shutout in 1985. Barrino and Brooks are being pencilled in as favourites for their respective categories already, too. The director is a bit of an unknown factor in comparison but that didn't stop Sian Heder when she won for CODA. I think there's definitely something to be said for keeping an eye on this one.

I dunno, I feel like these are the preliminary "top four" that make the most sense at this point. I feel like if I were to call my shot this early on, out of the four, I'd say The Color Purple only because I feel like the first three might be fighting for the same general oxygen and narratives.

Nomadland was nominated in Adapted, and CODA won Adapted. 

Moonlight also won adapted.

Yes, but that's also quite different from The Color Purple - which is overrated on this board as a winner imo - at least it is in May - remaking a US film that is  already quite well known and was nodded a lot which is what dadsburger meant (I think?)........I mean using that logic, The Departed was a remake too......but it was also not really.........

Not sure how The Color Purple is in the lead over Past Lives atm - when Past Lives we know is going to be received as "great" because people have seen it - and we know it plays to all audiences too........and this Academy just this year blew off every African American prestige pic completely ..........even though they weren't that good anyway (Woman King, Till) 

Then again, that may just be because I'm seeing Past Lives this month and I'm caught up in the excitement of that 

I like your Past Lives prediction. Something indie and outside the name brand recognition. I haven’t seen the musical version, but the movie was good, but hard to watch. Reminded me of Precious.

Past Lives is doing very well but Cannes hasn't even happened yet, much less Venice or TIFF (the friendlier festivals to awards-y fare). The idea that a small A24 film with a predominantly Asian cast being released in the spring managing to outlast all the competition and the win twice in a row -- yes, the films are wildly different in their approaches but A24 had gone to ground for half a decade between their last big Oscar success and last year, where they nearly swept the Big Eight. Are they prepared to do that again? Can they? Or will the Academy, satisfied about one glass ceiling being broken, pivot as they always do?