|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 7, 2022 1:23:36 GMT
Gleeson Hirsh Quan Dano Hanks Still tempted to keep Redmayne in there Wait, do you have Quan in 3rd?? No, not ranked
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2022 1:11:03 GMT
Would be interested to know if there is anyone here still doubting a Quan win??
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2022 1:19:18 GMT
Would be interested to know if there is anyone here still doubting a Quan win?? Well... I am. Simply because I'm doubting any win at this (still early) stage. Except for Avatar 2 in VFX, that's a mortal lock. What if industry awards come up and he's not the frontrunner anymore? Lots of shit can happen, the path has just begun.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2022 1:41:41 GMT
Maybe I should have just said "not predicting him to win".
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Dec 12, 2022 2:11:20 GMT
Would be interested to know if there is anyone here still doubting a Quan win?? I know things could change with the televised awards, but I don’t know know if there’s anyone that could put up a challenge. Granted I haven’t really been following this year that much, and I thought Brendan Gleeson was in a good spot before the critics started, but it’s an easy place to award Everything Everywhere All at Once an acting win if it is our BP winner, makes certain voters who care about such things seem like they’re being woke, and Quan just has an unbeatable narrative. Sure narrative doesn’t matter like it used to, but I can’t imagine his story not touching all voters in some way. If he wins, there’s just not going to be a dry eye in the house or anyone sitting down for his speech.
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Dec 12, 2022 2:24:08 GMT
Maybe I should have just said "not predicting him to win". Me. Gleeson still, who has two wins to his name already. If say Fraser resurges in actor (not that I think he necessarily will), Williams goes back to supporting, and he becomes the place to reward Banshees, I think he could take it in a walk. However given they gave Three Billboards two wins, I could foresee a situation where both he and Farrell walk away with wins. Also let's not forget critical favorites of Willem Dafoe, and Smit-McPhee last year even, or worse Albert Brooks. Quan is making his position better, but it is FAR from a done deal, particularly as AGAIN we still haven't seen how the film will be seen by the Academy as a whole (with its trophies up butts, talking rocks, and mustard spewing hotdog fingers).
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 12, 2022 2:29:04 GMT
It's too early to call anything at this point. These are critic awards. Coda didn't do well with critics at all then it start doing well with the awards that counted--the guilds.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2022 4:09:12 GMT
Maybe I should have just said "not predicting him to win". Me. Gleeson still, who has two wins to his name already. If say Fraser resurges in actor (not that I think he necessarily will), Williams goes back to supporting, and he becomes the place to reward Banshees, I think he could take it in a walk. However given they gave Three Billboards two wins, I could foresee a situation where both he and Farrell walk away with wins. Also let's not forget critical favorites of Willem Dafoe, and Smit-McPhee last year even, or worse Albert Brooks. Quan is making his position better, but it is FAR from a done deal, particularly as AGAIN we still haven't seen how the film will be seen by the Academy as a whole (with its trophies up butts, talking rocks, and mustard spewing hotdog fingers). That's a lot of 'ifs', and if McDonagh is directing a double acting win again, Condon is more likely considering how wide open her category is. Willem was a lone nominee, and Kodi in his early 20's, they're not really comparable to Quan at all who doesn't just have the critics on his side, but the loveable comeback narrative. If you don't think the industry is behind him (and the film in general), then you haven't been paying attention. EEAAO is the feel good success story of the year, and Quan is at the centre of that.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2022 4:15:41 GMT
Me. Gleeson still, who has two wins to his name already. If say Fraser resurges in actor (not that I think he necessarily will), Williams goes back to supporting, and he becomes the place to reward Banshees, I think he could take it in a walk. However given they gave Three Billboards two wins, I could foresee a situation where both he and Farrell walk away with wins. Also let's not forget critical favorites of Willem Dafoe, and Smit-McPhee last year even, or worse Albert Brooks. Quan is making his position better, but it is FAR from a done deal, particularly as AGAIN we still haven't seen how the film will be seen by the Academy as a whole (with its trophies up butts, talking rocks, and mustard spewing hotdog fingers). That's a lot of 'ifs', and if McDonagh is directing a double acting win again, Condon is more likely considering how wide open her category is. Willem was a lone nominee, and Kodi in his early 20's, they're not really comparable to Quan at all who doesn't just have the critics on his side, but the loveable comeback narrative. If you don't think the industry is behind him (and the film in general), then you haven't been paying attention. EEAAO is the feel good success story of the year, and Quan is at the centre of that. I think Quan is the likeliest above-the-line winner for Everything Everywhere All At Once, and he makes a great deal of sense if we look at his narrative and how unbelievably charming and sweet he is on the circuit. But I think Mr. Snrub makes a good point: it remains to be seen how the film will carry over to the industry (I personally think it'll do well with nominations, but I think it's got a lower win equity than the likes of Banshees, The Fabelmans, Women Talking and maybe even Top Gun: Maverick), and Gleeson has been a consistent presence who has seemingly worked with everyone in Hollywood. I don't think it's a done deal at all. We've seen perceived frontrunners lose steam as the season goes on, and timing is everything. I think Gleeson's biggest hurdle is that Farrell and Condon all make strong claims to win their respective categories, and those two + McDonagh winning screenplay would go against the Academy's tendency of late to spread the love if we were to add Gleeson into the mix. But right now, I would say Quan is in the pole position and I can definitely see him winning, but people were calling the race for Kodi this time last year and, well, lol.
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Dec 12, 2022 8:46:59 GMT
I don’t doubt Quan. For him to lose the televised, he would have had to trail with critics, but he’s sweeping the trifecta. Gleeson might win BAFTA, but that’s it.
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Dec 12, 2022 11:09:34 GMT
Me. Gleeson still, who has two wins to his name already. If say Fraser resurges in actor (not that I think he necessarily will), Williams goes back to supporting, and he becomes the place to reward Banshees, I think he could take it in a walk. However given they gave Three Billboards two wins, I could foresee a situation where both he and Farrell walk away with wins. Also let's not forget critical favorites of Willem Dafoe, and Smit-McPhee last year even, or worse Albert Brooks. Quan is making his position better, but it is FAR from a done deal, particularly as AGAIN we still haven't seen how the film will be seen by the Academy as a whole (with its trophies up butts, talking rocks, and mustard spewing hotdog fingers). 1. That's a lot of 'ifs', and if McDonagh is directing a double acting win again, 2. Condon is more likely considering how wide open her category is. 3. Willem was a lone nominee, and Kodi in his early 20's, they're not really comparable to Quan at all who doesn't just have the critics on his side, but the loveable comeback narrative. If you don't think the industry is behind him (and the film in general), then you haven't been paying attention. EEAAO is the feel good success story of the year, and Quan is at the centre of that. 1. Well of course there's a lot of "ifs" we haven't gotten a single industry award yet, let alone industry nominations. 2. Personally I think Buckley is probably more likely than Condon if Women Talking is a top five contender as many are presuming it to be. Also that's on the presumption Quan is winning, which again, he's lost NBR and NYFCO, so it's not as though there's no dissent. Also neither is more likely at the moment because we haven't gotten any industry nominations yet. 3. They are comparable because they were critical favorites who came up short. But hey you need someone whose film did well too and had a comeback narrative? MICHAEL KEATON. I mean how many comeback narratives do we need to see fall short (Rourke, Stallone, Keaton) to see they're hardly a guarantee. Acting like anything is a done deal at this venture is silly, there's plenty of race to run left. Quan's got a great chance, but it isn't sealed for him yet.
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Dec 12, 2022 11:50:53 GMT
I don’t doubt Quan. For him to lose the televised, he would have had to trail with critics, but he’s sweeping the trifecta. Gleeson might win BAFTA, but that’s it. Yep just like Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky, he's a done deal. COME ON GUYS, why must we do this every year. Critics help get your name on the board, but they're not automatically a guarantee of a win or even a nomination.
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2022 11:55:50 GMT
I don’t doubt Quan. For him to lose the televised, he would have had to trail with critics, but he’s sweeping the trifecta. Gleeson might win BAFTA, but that’s it. Yep just like Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky, he's a done deal. COME ON GUYS, why must we do this every year. Critics help get your name on the board, but they're not automatically a guarantee of a win or even a nomination. It really is amazing how folks go through the same thing every year and yet with each new awards season the well of knowledge seems to be nullified
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Dec 12, 2022 12:00:45 GMT
I don’t doubt Quan. For him to lose the televised, he would have had to trail with critics, but he’s sweeping the trifecta. Gleeson might win BAFTA, but that’s it. Yep just like Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky, he's a done deal. COME ON GUYS, why must we do this every year. Critics help get your name on the board, but they're not automatically a guarantee of a win or even a nomination. I missed the part where Happy Go Lucky was a Top 3 film
Quan didn't need critics to get his name on the board because he's already in a strong film. Critics awards are cementing a frontrunner status he already had.
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 12, 2022 13:27:28 GMT
I’m currently predicting Quan (somewhat reluctantly) but think he’s far from a lock at this point.
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Dec 12, 2022 13:27:52 GMT
Yep just like Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky, he's a done deal. COME ON GUYS, why must we do this every year. Critics help get your name on the board, but they're not automatically a guarantee of a win or even a nomination. I missed the part where Happy Go Lucky was a Top 3 film
Quan didn't need critics to get his name on the board because he's already in a strong film. Critics awards are cementing a frontrunner status he already had. I missed the part where EEAO is a top three contender given we haven't gotten any nominations or awards with substantial academy overlap yet.
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Dec 12, 2022 13:29:34 GMT
I missed the part where Happy Go Lucky was a Top 3 film
Quan didn't need critics to get his name on the board because he's already in a strong film. Critics awards are cementing a frontrunner status he already had. I missed the part where EEAO is a top three contender given we haven't gotten any nominations or awards with substantial academy overlap yet. Lol ok.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 12, 2022 14:08:29 GMT
What do we think about Redmayne's chances for a nomination? His performance in "The Good Nurse" seems to be praised and playing a creep has certainly worked well for many an actor. Feels like a Globes thing. Good call
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 12, 2022 17:03:58 GMT
I still think Dano and/or Ben Whishaw are still in my predictions despite the Globes. I don’t see Pitt or Redmayne going all the way.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2022 17:11:42 GMT
I still think Dano and/or Ben Whishaw are still in my predictions despite the Globes. I don’t see Pitt or Redmayne going all the way. I definitely think Redmayne is a Globes-only thing, but I still don't quite know what to do with Pitt. I do think Keoghan is in the five though. If he was gonna miss anywhere, it would've been here.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 12, 2022 17:18:48 GMT
I still think Dano and/or Ben Whishaw are still in my predictions despite the Globes. I don’t see Pitt or Redmayne going all the way. I definitely think Redmayne is a Globes-only thing, but I still don't quite know what to do with Pitt. I do think Keoghan is in the five though. If he was gonna miss anywhere, it would've been here. I think Redmayne can possibly show up in another precursor or two but not the Oscars. I just feel like the SAG and Oscars probably don’t want to touch Pitt right now. I’ve been predicting Keoghan for a bit now but who knows.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 20, 2022 16:28:26 GMT
A lot of actors are smitten with Keoghan on Twitter right now. Especially his last scene, which is kind of going viral. I think he is in 3rd right now. Fourth right now I’m saying Dano. The Academy tends to favor performances in movies they love overall more than the Globes. 5th place I have no clue. Whishaw maybe?
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 20, 2022 16:33:32 GMT
A lot of actors are smitten with Keoghan on Twitter right now. Especially his last scene, which is kind of going viral. I think he is in 3rd right now. Fourth right now I’m saying Dano. The Academy tends to favor performances in movies they love overall more than the Globes. 5th place I have no clue. Whishaw maybe? Love seeing the Keoghan appreciation trending (and that can only help Condon, because she's incredible in that scene as well).
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Dec 20, 2022 17:14:29 GMT
Double nods usually start with the Globes, and it would be very weird if a performance like Keoghan’s missed the Oscar after hitting Globes and BAFTA.
For the fifth, I’m still leaning Pitt.
|
|