|
Post by stephen on Sept 12, 2022 22:14:55 GMT
1. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking. Though the film is dominated by a strong ensemble of women, the lone major male character is getting a lot of singular notices. Whishaw’s always been hovering around that “when’s his time going to be?” range for a while, and I think it’s going to be now. I think he could be win-competitive, too.
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin. Extremely good reviews, a well-loved veteran who could be in contention for the title of best actor to not have an Oscar nomination, co-lead role frauding down to supporting. Bet against the big man at your own peril.
3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans. Getting slightly stronger singular notices over his co-star, big Spielberg picture, prior nominee, well-loved vet.
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans. The strength of the film and his overdue factor could propel him in, Plemons-style, if this film doubles down on nominations for Supporting Actor.
5. Brad Pitt, Babylon. Probably a bit foolhardy to rank him so low, but he did just win and for another Hollywood-centric role. The Academy might feel a bit of “been there, done that” with him. But he’s arguably the biggest star in contention and Babylon has to be considered a major threat for any category.
6. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light. The film’s reviews are a bit more tepid than I expected, but his singular notices are very strong and I think they’ll category-fraud him here to supporting to get more of a shot at the nod, and I think he absolutely could pull a Buckley and get in off the strength and passion of Colman.
7. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once. The reviews are there and there’s a juicy comeback narrative at play. But as the resident Doubting Thomas of EEAAO, I do think there is a very strong chance that he misses with the industry awards. I definitely think he’s a surer bet than someone like Hsu in Supporting Actress, and indeed I feel like he’s gotten much more singular attention than even Yeoh. But if the critics don’t rally around him on a sweeper level, he could get frosted out. With that said, he's probably the member of the cast I feel has the highest win equity.
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness. Big Cannes breakthrough, and while it’s probably not the friendliest Oscar project, Harrelson’s gotten in for very eclectic fare in the past, and they do love him. Could see him as a random BAFTA player.
9. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin. He doesn’t have quite the singular notices of his castmates but he is on the rise in a big way, and McDonagh’s last movie did score double nods for its supporting men. If it’s a massive player, could very well see Keoghan swept up in the lovefest.
10. Toby Jones, Empire of Light. A very well-respected character actor who by all accounts does very fine work in this film, and he’s been verging on an Oscar breakthrough for ages but hasn’t yet sealed the deal. Ward has the bigger and flashier role, but Jones is the vet.
HM: Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (not the Oscars’ usual cup of tea but maybe Fiennes can get some individual recognition; Tobey Maguire, Babylon (possible coattail nominee if the film is a huge player); David Lynch, The Fabelmans (one-scene wonder but by all accounts a major scene-stealer, wishful thinking but fuck it)
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Sept 12, 2022 22:36:41 GMT
Basically the same as yours haha.
1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin 2. Brad Pitt, Babylon 3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking 4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once 5. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans 6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans 7. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light 8. Tom Hanks, Elvis 9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness 10. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Gleeson is the only one I’m fairly confident about. He’s got the reviews, the narrative, a large role, strong distributor and he’s basically worked with everyone in the industry. I’m pretty sure Pitt isn’t winning, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get nominated. Whishaw is well-respected in the industry and I can see the British block rallying around him, especially after his career best reviews in This is Going to Hurt which was big here. Plus, your point about the sole man in an all female cast. Kinda like inverse McAdams in Spotlight. I’m the resident EEAAO hater, but I’m slightly more confident in Quan than you. A24 seem to be pushing the film at the moment, he’s going to campaign and charm the hell out of everyone, he’s got the narrative, will probably do well with critics and he has the reviews. I’m confident that one of the Fabelmen is getting nominated. I’m going with Dano now because he’s overdue and has the larger role, but Hirsch hasthe more showy character so who knows.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 12, 2022 22:49:54 GMT
Basically the same as yours haha. 1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin 2. Brad Pitt, Babylon 3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking 4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once 5. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans 6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans 7. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light 8. Tom Hanks, Elvis 9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness 10. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin Gleeson is the only one I’m fairly confident about. He’s got the reviews, the narrative, a large role, strong distributor and he’s basically worked with everyone in the industry. I’m pretty sure Pitt isn’t winning, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get nominated. Whishaw is well-respected in the industry and I can see the British block rallying around him, especially after his career best reviews in This is Going to Hurt which was big here. Plus, your point about the sole man in an all female cast. Kinda like inverse McAdams in Spotlight. I’m the resident EEAAO hater, but I’m slightly more confident in Quan than you. A24 seem to be pushing the film at the moment, he’s going to campaign and charm the hell out of everyone, he’s got the narrative, will probably do well with critics and he has the reviews. I’m confident that one of the Fabelmen is getting nominated. I’m going with Dano now because he’s overdue and has the larger role, but Hirsch hasthe more showy character so who knows. I'm probably lower on Quan than I should be because yeah, the guy is charming and adorable and sweet as all hell and I want the world for him and he fucking rules in that movie, but there's just so much about that damn movie that makes me think it's going to underperform. I want very much to be proven wrong, though. I totally forgot about Hanks. He's definitely in the mix for SAG and the Globe, even if it's a Jared Leto in House of Gucci situation where he gets Razzie-nominated in the bargain.
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Sept 12, 2022 23:07:04 GMT
Dano, Gleeson, Harrelson, Pitt, Quan.
I see this as Quan's to lose at the moment, tbh. I'm sure I'm underestimating Hirsch but from what I've read it seems like his role might be too small.
|
|
|
Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Sept 13, 2022 5:44:53 GMT
1. Gleeson 2. Quan 3. Whishaw 4. Hirsch 5. Dano 6. Harrelson
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 13, 2022 14:03:03 GMT
Gleeson Hirsch Pitt Quan Whishaw
Dano
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 13, 2022 18:39:23 GMT
does Hopkins have a really small part in Armageddon Time? Unless it's a really small part, I think it's unwise to write him off. He fits the mold of a Ciarán Hinds Belfast nomination (Dench too for that matter) of the sagely grandparent dispensing wisdom to child protagonist and at least some of the reviews called him a standout. Based on the trailer at least, it looks like the kind of role that certainly could be nominated provided it's not too small. Hirsch's role looks quite similar. where I'm at rn Dano Pitt (least confident) Quan Ward Whishaw after that Babylon trailer I don't know what to think. Pitt certainly looks zany and maybe that helps him get in, but if the film is as messy as it looks I could see it goose egg in most of the topline categories altogether. With Hirsch I just don't know how significant the role is yet. If he has at least as much screentime as Hinds last year I say he probably gets in and bumps out Dano, Ward, or Pitt. Bryan Tyree Henry is in there somewhere. Time will tell if Causeway has the mileage to go beyond indie spirit level, but I was predicting Henry and Lawrence sight unseen back in March based on the PTSD premise and now the early reviews have borne out that their acting is a highlight. I really think they could break into their respective races. mhynson27 can speak more to this having seen him, but my gut say no on Harrelson. are we sure Gleeson is going supporting? If so then obviously that would affect my list. He's probably either in the top 5 or just outside of it.
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 13, 2022 18:48:55 GMT
I think Quan is too likable to miss. I know on paper he should be an underdog but no voter that watches that movie could deny him a nom. he's already got one vote!
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 13, 2022 22:26:53 GMT
does Hopkins have a really small part in Armageddon Time? Unless it's a really small part, I think it's unwise to write him off. He fits the mold of a Ciarán Hinds Belfast nomination (Dench too for that matter) of the sagely grandparent dispensing wisdom to child protagonist and at least some of the reviews called him a standout. Based on the trailer at least, it looks like the kind of role that certainly could be nominated provided it's not too small. Hirsch's role looks quite similar. where I'm at rn Dano Pitt (least confident) Quan Ward Whishaw after that Babylon trailer I don't know what to think. Pitt certainly looks zany and maybe that helps him get in, but if the film is as messy as it looks I could see it goose egg in most of the topline categories altogether. With Hirsch I just don't know how significant the role is yet. If he has at least as much screentime as Hinds last year I say he probably gets in and bumps out Dano, Ward, or Pitt. Bryan Tyree Henry is in there somewhere. Time will tell if Causeway has the mileage to go beyond indie spirit level, but I was predicting Henry and Lawrence sight unseen back in March based on the PTSD premise and now the early reviews have borne out that their acting is a highlight. I really think they could break into their respective races. mhynson27 can speak more to this having seen him, but my gut say no on Harrelson. are we sure Gleeson is going supporting? If so then obviously that would affect my list. He's probably either in the top 5 or just outside of it. Agreed about Woody's chances. I seriously doubt Gleeson will go Lead as they wouldn't want to take the shine away from Colin.
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 17, 2022 6:06:57 GMT
Quan seems like the one with the most obvious path to a win here. He's got the best narrative, he's likeable, he's in an acclaimed role, he's in what's probably a top 3 BP contender, AND he has no internal competition.... it seems like there are some who prefer Keoghan's performance to Gleeson's in Banshees, and not only is Hirsch competing against Dano in the same film, but his role is very small and apparently his one scene happens early in the movie, so I'm not even sure how confident I'd be in him even getting a nom... and then Dano seems like too muted of a performance to win, plus I don't see The Fabelmans getting two acting wins anyway. You could argue that Whishaw also has no internal competition like Quan, but it's hard for me to imagine them awarding the only male in an otherwise all female ensemble.
|
|
|
Post by mattfincher on Sept 18, 2022 11:24:28 GMT
Having seen Fabelmans/Banshees/Women Talking/Empire of Light/Triangle of Sadness I’ll say some of these rankings are quite bonkers. Quan and Pitt (who having seen the top 6 contenders has the best on paper role by a mile) are clearly the top 2. Nobody else here is going to be win competitive. I’d rank the rest as 3. Dano 4. Gleeson 5. Whishaw 6. Hirsch. Ward is absolutely not happening. I could see the Globes going crazy for Triangle and nominating Woody but that’s about it. Bryan Tyree Henry probably deserves to win but won’t be nominated anywhere major.
Oh, and Tom Hanks is probably getting a SAG nom in this field.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 18, 2022 15:31:08 GMT
I'm with Matt after seeing Banshees, Gleeson would be a very weird winner. Sticking with Quan.
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Sept 19, 2022 0:41:49 GMT
What do we think about Redmayne's chances for a nomination? His performance in "The Good Nurse" seems to be praised and playing a creep has certainly worked well for many an actor.
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Sept 19, 2022 0:52:21 GMT
What do we think about Redmayne's chances for a nomination? His performance in "The Good Nurse" seems to be praised and playing a creep has certainly worked well for many an actor. Feels like a Globes thing.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 19, 2022 0:56:03 GMT
What do we think about Redmayne's chances for a nomination? His performance in "The Good Nurse" seems to be praised and playing a creep has certainly worked well for many an actor. Feels like a Globes thing. Maybe SAG
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 19, 2022 2:48:04 GMT
Feels like a Globes thing. Maybe SAG Or perhaps BAFTA
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 19, 2022 4:18:43 GMT
Honestly about anything but Oscar
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Sept 19, 2022 10:21:40 GMT
Honestly about anything but Oscar But why? If the field ends up as narrow as it feels right now then surely Redmayne has a shot at sneaking in with the praise and the type of performance he gives. Unless Netflix abandons the film or something. Of course getting a lone Supporting Actor nomination is tough for a movie (and I assume it won't get any other kind of traction) but as Mr. Crowe said upon winning his Academy Award: it's possible
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 19, 2022 12:37:35 GMT
Is Redmayne supporting? I've not kept up with the reviews on that film but I was under the impression they were co-leads. Sure, that doesn't really matter and I imagine they could fraud him to supporting, but isn't he also top-billed?
In any case, Netflix has the money and they don't seem to have a major player in this category, so they might try for it.
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Sept 19, 2022 13:29:08 GMT
Is Redmayne supporting? I've not kept up with the reviews on that film but I was under the impression they were co-leads. Sure, that doesn't really matter and I imagine they could fraud him to supporting, but isn't he also top-billed? In any case, Netflix has the money and they don't seem to have a major player in this category, so they might try for it. "Top Billed?" With what happened with Judas and the Black Messiah, someone probably could star in a one man show and be placed supporting.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 19, 2022 13:30:40 GMT
Is Redmayne supporting? I've not kept up with the reviews on that film but I was under the impression they were co-leads. Sure, that doesn't really matter and I imagine they could fraud him to supporting, but isn't he also top-billed? In any case, Netflix has the money and they don't seem to have a major player in this category, so they might try for it. "Top Billed?" With what happened with Judas and the Black Messiah, someone probably could star in a one man show and be placed supporting. Where's Diane Ladd when you need her? At least with Judas, as dumbass as that whole result was, Stanfield and Kaluuya at least had internal competition with each other that could (and did) cause confusion. But Redmayne and Chastain aren't fighting for a slot in the same category.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 19, 2022 13:38:28 GMT
Is Redmayne supporting? I've not kept up with the reviews on that film but I was under the impression they were co-leads. Sure, that doesn't really matter and I imagine they could fraud him to supporting, but isn't he also top-billed? In any case, Netflix has the money and they don't seem to have a major player in this category, so they might try for it. Everybody I’ve asked has said he’s supporting
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 19, 2022 13:39:44 GMT
Honestly about anything but Oscar But why? If the field ends up as narrow as it feels right now then surely Redmayne has a shot at sneaking in with the praise and the type of performance he gives. Unless Netflix abandons the film or something. Of course getting a lone Supporting Actor nomination is tough for a movie (and I assume it won't get any other kind of traction) but as Mr. Crowe said upon winning his Academy Award: it's possible Mostly like you said he’s the movies only Oscar play probably. Similar to Leto in The Little Things or Affleck in The Tender Bar.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Oct 2, 2022 16:20:52 GMT
I know he doesn't have a prayer of getting an industry nomination, but Mark Rylance is getting a lot of juicy buzz for his turn in Bones & All, and I think he may be a threat for some critics' prizes.
|
|
|
Post by Mattsby on Oct 29, 2022 18:46:44 GMT
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere… Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness Brad Pitt, Babylon
|
|