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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 4, 2022 18:24:46 GMT
Saw The Good Nurse. Appreciated the subtlety of both the film and Redmayne's performance. Still seeing him as that guy who gets a few big precursors but ultimately misses the Oscars because the film won't do much else.
The best picture contenders are really loaded with Supporting actor possiblities. With Banshees and Fablemans both having a shot a multiple nods. Women Talking and EEAAO almost certainly getting nods here too. Also Pitt is an unseen in a potential big player. Going to be hard for Redmayne (or Tyree Henry) to get in with all the other contenders in much stronger movies but I don't think the precursors care as much about that.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 4, 2022 22:34:51 GMT
Dano Gleeson Keoghan Pitt Quan
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2022 19:50:48 GMT
Brendan Gleeson Woody Harrelson Judd Hirsch Ke Huy Quan Ben Whishaw
Alt. Barry Keoghan?
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 10, 2022 0:03:11 GMT
Gleeson, Whishaw, Tyree, Hirsh, Quan
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 10, 2022 0:09:58 GMT
Gleeson, Whishaw, Tyree, Hirsh, Woody Tyree Henry over Quan?!? That's gonna need an explanation.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 10, 2022 0:15:02 GMT
- Quan - Gleeson - Dano - Whishaw - Keoghan
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 10, 2022 12:08:15 GMT
Gleeson, Whishaw, Tyree, Hirsh, Woody Tyree Henry over Quan?!? That's gonna need an explanation. I replaced Quan for Woody. I remembered that I checked his box on the EEAAO thread.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 10, 2022 12:42:10 GMT
Tyree Henry over Quan?!? That's gonna need an explanation. I replaced Quan for Woody. I remembered that I checked his box on the EEAAO thread. Still doesn't explain the Henry prediction
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Post by DanQuixote on Nov 10, 2022 14:19:42 GMT
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once Ben Whishaw - Women Talking
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans Tom Hanks - Elvis Woody Harrelson - Triangle of Sadness Brad Pitt - Babylon Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 10, 2022 14:55:15 GMT
Gleeson Hirsh Quan Redmayne Pitt
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 11, 2022 17:56:31 GMT
I replaced Quan for Woody. I remembered that I checked his box on the EEAAO thread. Still doesn't explain the Henry prediction Tyree is getting great reviews for the performance and it's a film Apple will be campaigning for.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2022 18:01:34 GMT
Still doesn't explain the Henry prediction Tyree is getting great reviews for the performance and it's a film Apple will be campaigning for. Henry strikes me as someone who gets a random BFCA nod but that's the ceiling. He and Lawrence have good reviews but the competition are in stronger films.
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 11, 2022 18:31:21 GMT
So these Oscar pundits had Dano, Hirsh, Tyree, Gleeson and Quan.
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 11, 2022 18:34:29 GMT
Tyree is getting great reviews for the performance and it's a film Apple will be campaigning for. Henry strikes me as someone who gets a random BFCA nod but that's the ceiling. He and Lawrence have good reviews but the competition are in stronger films. Don't agree with that. Causeway is getting good reviews. The performances are seen as excellent. Tyree did get a Gotham nomination. I think the supporting actor category is very loose. Quite frankly, I wouldn't be shocked to see Lawrence getting a Best Actress nomination. I think Tyree is somebody who could easily slip in.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 11, 2022 19:37:07 GMT
There’s been zero meaningful precursors. It’s perfectly reasonable to predict Henry. Ya’ll act like you don’t end up shocked by various nominations every single year.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2022 21:17:21 GMT
Henry strikes me as someone who gets a random BFCA nod but that's the ceiling. He and Lawrence have good reviews but the competition are in stronger films. Don't agree with that. Causeway is getting good reviews. The performances are seen as excellent. Tyree did get a Gotham nomination. I think the supporting actor category is very loose. Quite frankly, I wouldn't be shocked to see Lawrence getting a Best Actress nomination. I think Tyree is somebody who could easily slip in. Yeah, it's getting good reviews but all sorts of movies get good reviews and get blanked. Right now Henry's category consists of contenders from movies that are strong Best Picture players. He could get nominated, the guy's been on the cusp of it for quite some time in terms of needing the stars to align for him, but Causeway feels very much like a "This Had Oscar Buzz" movie that will be seen as just another notch in his belt for when he does eventually get the nomination.
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 11, 2022 21:24:04 GMT
Don't agree with that. Causeway is getting good reviews. The performances are seen as excellent. Tyree did get a Gotham nomination. I think the supporting actor category is very loose. Quite frankly, I wouldn't be shocked to see Lawrence getting a Best Actress nomination. I think Tyree is somebody who could easily slip in. Yeah, it's getting good reviews but all sorts of movies get good reviews and get blanked. Right now Henry's category consists of contenders from movies that are strong Best Picture players. He could get nominated, the guy's been on the cusp of it for quite some time in terms of needing the stars to align for him, but Causeway feels very much like a "This Had Oscar Buzz" movie that will be seen as just another notch in his belt for when he does eventually get the nomination. We will see. This is just my early bird thoughts. I just think it is silly to doubt the power of Apple. Certainly there are "stronger" (no major awards have been announced or given out), but I believe the performances from Causeway are being seen as major Oscar players. Not sure why you guys are picking on Henry. Keep in mind, I was the one who thought Kotsur was going to be a major player, but this board said no, because he wasn't a known. You were yourself didn't think Fraser was going to be a contender, when I first popped the Fraser question.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2022 21:25:10 GMT
There’s been zero meaningful precursors. It’s perfectly reasonable to predict Henry. Ya’ll act like you don’t end up shocked by various nominations every single year. Tell that to Fease, apparantley getting a Gotham nom actually means something... No one perfectly predicts everything, but there's a difference between someone like Dench or de Tavira getting in for Top 2/3 films, and Henry getting in for a film that isn't even Top 15 in Picture, when every major contender in the category is in a Top 5 film.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2022 21:30:00 GMT
Yeah, it's getting good reviews but all sorts of movies get good reviews and get blanked. Right now Henry's category consists of contenders from movies that are strong Best Picture players. He could get nominated, the guy's been on the cusp of it for quite some time in terms of needing the stars to align for him, but Causeway feels very much like a "This Had Oscar Buzz" movie that will be seen as just another notch in his belt for when he does eventually get the nomination. We will see. This is just my early bird thoughts. I just think it is silly to doubt the power of Apple. Certainly there are "stronger" (no major awards have been announced or given out), but I believe the performances from Causeway are being seen as major Oscar players. Not sure why you guys are picking on Henry. Keep in mind, I was the one who thought Kotsur was going to be a major player, but this board said no, because he wasn't a known. You were yourself didn't think Fraser was going to be a contender, when I first popped the Fraser question. Are they though?? I wouldn't say JLaw and BTH being 9th and 8th on GoldDerby respectively counts as being "major Oscar players". Also, if you want to play the 'look at this good prediction I made game', me and Stephen were the first two to predict Parasite to win, and I was the only one predicting Hopkins a year in advance. We all have our good days, and then sometimes shit the bed (KStew ).
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Post by quetee on Nov 11, 2022 21:37:27 GMT
I hope Tryee scores a nod.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2022 21:47:44 GMT
We will see. This is just my early bird thoughts. I just think it is silly to doubt the power of Apple. Certainly there are "stronger" (no major awards have been announced or given out), but I believe the performances from Causeway are being seen as major Oscar players. Not sure why you guys are picking on Henry. Keep in mind, I was the one who thought Kotsur was going to be a major player, but this board said no, because he wasn't a known. You were yourself didn't think Fraser was going to be a contender, when I first popped the Fraser question. Are they though?? I wouldn't say JLaw and BTH being 9th and 8th on GoldDerby respectively counts as being "major Oscar players". Also, if you want to play the 'look at this good prediction I made game', me and Stephen were the first two to predict Parasite to win, and I was the only one predicting Hopkins a year in advance. We all have our good days, and then sometimes shit the bed (KStew ). Hell, I called Rylance when he got cast. That was my Babe Ruth calling his shot moment. But honestly, nobody gives a shit who called what. We're not "picking on" Henry. But there's major reasons to doubt him -- namely, his competition is all from films that are very strong across the board. Gleeson, Whishaw, Keoghan, Quan, Pitt (and by extension, maybe someone like Maguire or Adepo), Dano, Hirsch, plus there are other performers like Harrelson (prior nominee), Redmayne (prior winner), Hanks (divisive but if Elvis lands he could very well see a path through the industry prizes like Leto did) and others that may not be in films that are as strong but they are also known quantities. And it remains to be seen if Apple even puts effort into a campaign if early awards buzz doesn't hold. They're already dealing with the colossal goatfuck that Emancipation has left them in. If Henry gets nominated, then good on him and good on Fease for picking him. I don't know what more I can say.
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Post by Brother Fease on Nov 13, 2022 19:36:54 GMT
My final is Hirsch, Henry, Gleeson, Quan and Redmayne. Go big or go home. We rarely ever see all the supporting actor nominees in a BP contender, nor does Gold Derby accurately predict the nominees before any precursor is given out. Also, I going to early predict Jeremy Pope and Gabrielle Union for Best Actor and Supporting Actress. J-Law for Actress. Those are my final for now..
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 6, 2022 22:11:14 GMT
Gleeson Hirsh Quan Redmayne Pitt Gleeson Hirsh Quan Dano Hanks Still tempted to keep Redmayne in there
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 6, 2022 22:45:18 GMT
Dano Gleeson Keoghan Pitt Quan Swap out Pitt for Whishaw
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 6, 2022 22:46:33 GMT
Gleeson Hirsh Quan Redmayne Pitt Gleeson Hirsh Quan Dano Hanks Still tempted to keep Redmayne in there Wait, do you have Quan in 3rd??
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