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Post by pacinoyes on Mar 13, 2022 15:24:03 GMT
Finally, a nice uncontroversial topic on the Politics board True / False only but comments encouraged* Beto O'Rourke will beat Gregg Abbott for Texas governor? * Our next President will be one of these 4 people ( ) in 2024 - no one else "can win": ..........Biden or Harris or Trump or DeSantis? * Republicans will win both House & Senate in November mid-terms? * Gas prices will come down before the November mid-terms? * Stock market will rise to where they were - the Dow - before the November mid-terms? * Inflation will ease before the November mid-terms?
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Post by Joaquim on Mar 13, 2022 18:55:29 GMT
False, Beto is a perennial loser and starting to look like his destiny is to be Texas Charlie Crist. Dems should’ve ditched this guy after he made an ass of himself running for president and should probably start looking at someone like ossoff in Georgia as their guy. I actually think McConaughey would’ve had a better chance of beating Abbott True True as long as they don’t give in to their neocon tendencies and push hard for war with Russia which so far… GOP has this on a platter and are prepared to throw it away because they can’t help themselves Sure, gas prices can take a bit of a breather in the middle of its run up. Prices don’t go up in a straight line Good question, and also ties in to your next one. If the fed wants to go forward with fighting inflation, the actions they take (interest rate hikes) will come at the cost of stock prices. If Uncle Powell says “fuck your puts” they’re giving up the inflation fight to save the stock market. Fed is trapped in a corner and a lot of what will happen to the stock market depends on what Uncle Powell does, and it’s already in a downtrend with stocks looking like shit. Only real good stuff is the handful of blue chip stocks (Apple, Amazon etc) which make up half the indices and have been singlehandedly dragging this market up for the past year, almost everything under it is a bunch of dogshit…but that doesn’t mean we can’t hit new all time highs by Election Day False, your easiest question. Real question is how bad will inflation be and will the real number ever actually be reported? Probably not to that last bit
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Post by Brother Fease on Mar 15, 2022 21:23:51 GMT
Beto O'Rourke will beat Gregg Abbott for Texas governor? False. It would absolutely wonderful if that happens, but Texas leans Red. At the end of the day, they will favor the regressive candidate. I hope I am dead wrong. Beto is probably the Dems best bet in Texas.
* Our next President will be one of these 4 people ( ) in 2024 - no one else "can win": ..........Biden or Harris or Trump or DeSantis? True. I think Harris or Biden will win in 2024. It depends if Biden feels he can handle another 4 years. The GOP taking over in 2023 will be a blessing in disguise for the Democrats. If people think the Democrats can't governor, wait to the GOP proves you wrong. It is the "hold my bleach" moment.* Republicans will win both House & Senate in November mid-terms? Isn't this a given? Big True. The Democrats have already lost the battle for 2022. * Gas prices will come down before the November mid-terms? True. Don't they always? The Biden Administration will increase the number of drilling permits.* Stock market will rise to where they were - the Dow - before the November mid-terms? True. Stock market will go back to its normal pattern.* Inflation will ease before the November mid-terms? False. Inflation has been a problem before Biden/Harris became President.By all means, ask follow-ups.
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Post by hugobolso on Mar 16, 2022 14:22:17 GMT
1) maybe right now is false. Susana Martin es from the Tea Party ruled New Mexico? for 8 years. When she retirados, the Demócratas won by a large margin. So young people, people who immigrate from México or from Blue States could change the color of the State. So yep this year Texas should be turn blue. But Biden bad politics, O Rouke isnt the best candidate of the states, and a good governorship probably could get Abbot 4 more years.
2) False. Biden or Harris will not run as President in the next Presidential Election. Unless Biden die or resign and Harris asume the Presidency. Harris any way will be defeated. Trump is over 70, what he should is resign the Presidency in favor of the VP for him or one if their children. According to the US law is dificult, because the President usually choose the VP but should be an smart moove, if he isnt betrayed
3) maybe. Right now is true. This could chance with the Ukraine War, if Biden capturas Putin. But right now the Republican will win seas in both houses. So will take the senate (only needs gain 1 seat) and probably the house of representatives.
4, 5 and 6. No idea. Economy isnt my strengh. Usually when there are midterm electoons inflassion and prices artigicially gone down as a propaganda. The whole thing is if were compare November 2021 with November 2022. Or September and October 2022 with November 2022.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 16, 2022 17:18:55 GMT
* Beto O'Rourke will beat Gregg Abbott for Texas governor? False. Most of Texas is living in the stone age.
* Our next President will be one of these 4 people: ..........Biden or Harris or Trump or DeSantis? True, and probably Trump or DeSantis
* Republicans will win both House & Senate in November mid-terms? True. Public opinion is always up against the ones in power, especially when everything is going wrong and since spring of 2021 everything has pretty much been going wrong. Biden's administration needed to have accomplished something, anything, to have a fighting chance in what was already going to be an uphill battle. But with the inflation and economic instability and the embarrassments of the border and Afghanistan and inability to rein in COVID or even pass his infrastructure agenda because of Manchin and Sinema, the midterms are going to be a blood bath for dems.
It can't be stated enough that Trump was the best thing for Biden's electoral chances in 2020. Biden's victory was a reaction against Trump, and it unified the unmanageably broad dem and dem-leaning electorate (and independents, AND some republicans) in a way that's veeeeeery hard to accomplish and practically unprecedented. That same coalition is not going to come out for the midterms and probably not in 2024 either. The Virginia gubernatorial was a sign of things to come and proof that the 2020 Biden coalition has already splintered.
* Gas prices will come down before the November mid-terms? No idea.
* Stock market will rise to where they were - the Dow - before the November mid-terms? True, the market is really fighting to stay positive. Nasdaq I'm less confident in since tech has been such a huge bubble that's been slowly deflating since beginning of 2021, but Dow should be OK.
* Inflation will ease before the November mid-terms? Way above my pay grade but I'd guess true.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 16, 2022 17:28:28 GMT
the 2020 election is such a weird paradox. Biden had to accomplish the impossible in order to win (assembling this gigantic and unprecedentedly diverse voting bloc) and doing that was only possible because soooo many people hated Trump.
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Post by Joaquim on Mar 16, 2022 20:48:03 GMT
Uncle Powell announces we’re getting at least 6 rate hikes this year however at 25bps it shows the fed is not serious about really combating inflation and more focused on bankrupting shorts…..but - and idk how I forgot to mention this in my first post - the thing to really look out for in terms of how stock markets will be affected is whether or not the fed dumps its balance sheet and there haven’t really been any indications that that is a serious consideration either. Fed dumps its balance sheet, stonks are fucked. So we got some kind of an idea today for inflation and stock market outlook for the rest of the year
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Post by mrimpossible on Mar 17, 2022 2:32:35 GMT
I'll be utterly shocked if Biden wins in 2024. His presidency is a disaster with rampant inflation, southern border and breaking almost all of the promises he made.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 19, 2022 20:11:29 GMT
so take this obviously with a huge grain of salt but the assumption going into 2021 was that GOP would win BIG with redistricting and that doesn't seem to have happened yet according to FiveThirtyEight's redistricting tracker that's been active since early last year. With most of the states having approved maps, dems have actually picked up 10 seats and GOP has lost 6. FL is the biggest one left to watch with maps not yet approved, and Missouri and New Hampshire still don't have approved maps either. so much for that idea that GOP would pick up 10-15 seats "just in redistricting" nooooowww... perhaps the biggest grain of salt is the tracker's reliability in what it determines to be "democratic leaning" and "highly competitive" seats. In an environment where public opinion is against the dems you can expect those democratic-leaning seats to maybe not be so safe and a lot of those competitive seats to swing right by default. FiveThirtyEight was quite wrong about down-ballot 2020 races especially in the house.
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Post by Joaquim on Apr 20, 2022 1:27:15 GMT
so take this obviously with a huge grain of salt but the assumption going into 2021 was that GOP would win BIG with redistricting and that doesn't seem to have happened yet according to FiveThirtyEight's redistricting tracker that's been active since early last year. With most of the states having approved maps, dems have actually picked up 10 seats and GOP has lost 6. FL is the biggest one left to watch with maps not yet approved, and Missouri and New Hampshire still don't have approved maps either. so much for that idea that GOP would pick up 10-15 seats "just in redistricting" nooooowww... perhaps the biggest grain of salt is the tracker's reliability in what it determines to be "democratic leaning" and "highly competitive" seats. In an environment where public opinion is against the dems you can expect those democratic-leaning seats to maybe not be so safe and a lot of those competitive seats to swing right by default. FiveThirtyEight was quite wrong about down-ballot 2020 races especially in the house. It’s because Republicans are fucking spineless and don’t want to draw up monstrosities like New York or California. Democrats draw up their maps that look like someone had a seizure while drawing them then sperg out when Republicans try to do the same and they back down. However, in Florida Ron DeSantis has taken matters into his own hands and his map will undo all the gains democrats have made
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 20, 2022 1:55:56 GMT
It’s because Republicans are fucking spineless and don’t want to draw up monstrosities like New York or California. Democrats draw up their maps that look like someone had a seizure while drawing them then sperg out when Republicans try to do the same and they back down. However, in Florida Ron DeSantis has taken matters into his own hands and his map will undo all the gains democrats have made yeah he's slashing two majority-black district in half and eliminating another. Racial gerrymandering does tend to benefit Republicans.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 26, 2022 17:22:53 GMT
so yeah, even with DeSantis' crazy FL maps taken into consideration, Dems are still at +7 seats and GOP is at +1. No one could've convinced me this time last year that Dems would actually gain ground in redistricting.
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Post by pacinoyes on May 6, 2022 17:27:48 GMT
Ok, so no update to this thread since the SCOTUS leak.......some obvious new questions:
1. Does the leak - assuming it holds and is the final vote - and Roe v. Wade is reversed - does that change the mid-tems or not much? Is that issue now THE issue ..........or is it overrated as a voting item (ie it's always the economy or wallet related issues etc)......is it even the "2nd issue" come November?
2. If the Democrats still lose the House and the Senate - do you think there will be pressure for Biden to step aside in 2024 and not run again........because that would be 3 big knockout punches against the Party......
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Post by hugobolso on May 6, 2022 18:11:49 GMT
Ok, so no update to this thread since the SCOTUS leak.......some obvious new questions: 1. Does the leak - assuming it holds and is the final vote - and Roe v. Wade is reversed - does that change the mid-tems or not much? Is that issue now THE issue ..........or is it overrated as a voting item (ie it's always the economy or wallet related issues etc)......is it even the "2nd issue" come November? 2. If the Democrats still lose the House and the Senate - do you think there will be pressure for Biden to step aside in 2024 and not run again........because that would be 3 big knockout punches against the Party...... When people have no work, money and debts thats usually have zero impact. When they have it all, the Sex of Angels is in talks.- The Press will make this big, however the main Network is Fox News.- So answer the question will have an small impact.
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Post by Joaquim on May 6, 2022 19:37:27 GMT
Ok, so no update to this thread since the SCOTUS leak.......some obvious new questions: 1. Does the leak - assuming it holds and is the final vote - and Roe v. Wade is reversed - does that change the mid-tems or not much? Is that issue now THE issue ..........or is it overrated as a voting item (ie it's always the economy or wallet related issues etc)......is it even the "2nd issue" come November? 2. If the Democrats still lose the House and the Senate - do you think there will be pressure for Biden to step aside in 2024 and not run again........because that would be 3 big knockout punches against the Party...... 1st question is a tricky one, I honestly have no idea other than saying it’s definitely not going to cost Republicans the House and Senate. I can see it being the difference between obtaining a supermajority and not, but that shouldn’t be too much of a concern because Republicans shouldn’t be trying to impeach Biden going into 2023, just securing the majority should be the goal then get the rest in 2024. The flip side is you got prominent democrats, including the president, saying you should still be able to get an abortion 8/9 months in, which is just as unpopular as a blanket ban on abortion no exceptions period, so those two extremes may end up canceling each other out. Who knows. Democrats will try to make it THE issue and their very vocal base will be fully behind that but other voters may be more concerned about the economic issues like inflation 2. Probably? Can’t really say for sure. Anything is possible. Don’t rule out Hillary Clinton trying to get back in there
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 2, 2022 17:27:31 GMT
Pretty great analysis of mid-terms - best thing I've read on them .........this will be one to check back on in 6 months.
* Most current estimates of likely GOP House gains range from as low as a dozen seats (seven more than necessary for the barest majority) to about three dozen. The current outlook from David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s expert on the House, is a Republican gain of between 20 and 35 seats. * While Democrats are likely to lose both their House and Senate majorities, it is doubtful that House losses will reach 64 seats. Indeed, Masket even offers some reasons it might not. One is that after three consecutive cycles of very aggressive, even audacious gerrymandering by both parties, the number of competitive districts is much smaller, arguably reducing the volatility. www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/even-great-year-republicans-winnable-seats-are-limited
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 12, 2022 9:16:36 GMT
Yikes.........and I don't mean Britney getting married ........but ok sure Yikes to that too......... Gas was $2.38 national average on Biden's first day (or on Trump's last full week), it's $5 national average atm. $6 national average before Labor Day? Maybe......maybe.......it's like the freakin' Road Warrior ........
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2022 16:26:13 GMT
Yikes.........and I don't mean Britney getting married ........but ok sure Yikes to that too......... Gas was $2.38 national average on Biden's first day (or on Trump's last full week), it's $5 national average atm. $6 national average before Labor Day? Maybe......maybe.......it's like the freakin' Road Warrior ........ You realize gas would be the same price as it is now had Trump been re-elected, yes?
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 12, 2022 16:57:49 GMT
Yikes.........and I don't mean Britney getting married ........but ok sure Yikes to that too......... Gas was $2.38 national average on Biden's first day (or on Trump's last full week), it's $5 national average atm. $6 national average before Labor Day? Maybe......maybe.......it's like the freakin' Road Warrior ........ You realize gas would be the same price as it is now had Trump been re-elected, yes? Well that wasnt the point though - the point was to say the Mid-Terms are going to be pretty rough for him because he's going to be punished for it anyway.........or do you not think so? Also, Donald Trump is not on the ballot anyway. But to answer to your "Yes?" question ...........I think .......mostly No actually......... We don't know that gas or anything else would be "exactly the same" - maybe they would be.........but maybe not.......maybe there wouldn't be a war in Ukraine if he was in office.........maybe he would tap more domestic sources of energy supply that Biden is not atm.......? On the other hand, maybe they'd be higher .........or maybe Trump would have blown up the world by now (kidding / not kidding) Just talking about mid-terms here though.......and come on that's a killer statistic / headline for the mid-terms........
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2022 17:08:48 GMT
pacinoyes - Presidents have no power over gas prizes... They were much higher than this at certain points under Baby Bush... So I think it's a moot point...
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 30, 2022 11:11:53 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2022 14:51:15 GMT
These would be the first polls conducted post-the overturning of Roe? We'll see, I guess... NC might also be a state to watch!
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Post by hugobolso on Jun 30, 2022 16:11:16 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 30, 2022 18:42:55 GMT
yeah it didn't take a political science degree to know Roe being overturned was going to hurt GOP in battleground states with moderates/independents/women to some degree. But clearly a lot of dems are going to be motivated to vote in November and that's a bad thing for GOP generally. How many independents join that coalition with the economy in such bad shape is left to be seen.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 30, 2022 18:45:40 GMT
"Republican poll" conducted by Herschel Walker's campaign. Not super reliable.
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