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Post by hugobolso on Jul 1, 2022 0:51:30 GMT
"Republican poll" conducted by Herschel Walker's campaign. Not super reliable. Of course. I dont believe on polls. Every party use the margin of error in their favor. However if we combined both polls. Probably the Truth is somewhere in between. Kemp probably is slighty over Abrams now. And the the other democrat guy is over the former sport player but not for 10 points.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 1, 2022 21:10:59 GMT
There are a couple generic Congressional polls floating around that now have Dems ahead of GOP (particularly Marist, YouGov & Morning Consult). I said earlier that Roe being overturned wasn't going to be good for GOP with independents and women but I forgot that it's also going to be TERRIBLE for them with zoomers. This might be just the kind of thing that finally motivates young voters, especially if Obergefell falls. Zoomers are gay as fuck. đłď¸âđ **Big grain of salt because ppl have a short memory and things might die down between now and November, because the economy is in the toilet, and because it's likely these pollsters conducted multiple surveys and I wouldn't be surprised if the ones that are most favorable to the Dems have been cherrypicked. Also it's very unlikely that Obergefell falls any time soon but dems need to push the fact that it's in danger along with contraception. Clarence Thomas already did half the work there GOP should be concerned about this. They keep betting that young people will stay at home and at some point they're going to be wrong. www.salon.com/2022/06/29/post-roe-polls-midterm-support-for-democrats-soars-after-strikes-down-abortion-access/
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 29, 2022 10:07:47 GMT
Okay, about 100 days out: First of all - this board is not good at predicting stuff - much less predicting Oscar nominees waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early (um) - this was a question in this poll: * Our next President will be one of these 4 people ( ) in 2024 - no one else "can win": ..........Biden or Harris or Trump or DeSantis?
Now, maybe looks like Gavin Newsom could easily be the Dem nominee........pffft. * Just a question of how much the House will flip and if the Dems can minimize the losses - I've seen the House flipping as low as 15 seats - hardly a "red wave" - though I see some estimates of 40 seats+ too which maybe is a bit........and as the midterms approach that tends to surround around the party that will have the bigger day * Senate is still up in the air but Dems could be more than just competitive here - 3 key races Warnock, Walker / Fetterman , Oz / Ryan , Vance have the Dem in the lead in the polling .....control of the Senate is way more volatile and hard to guess * Some national figures are about to take some potentially big hits - Liz Cheyney is going to obviously lose her primary in August - which is ironic since the only date she knows is Jan 6th ammirite? (kidding, sorta) .........and celebrity candidates underperforming so far - Dr. Oz, J.D. VanceStacey Abrams - still can't seem to get ahead and runs a risk of disappearing as a national figure or looking like the female Beto / Trump / Hillary unless she actually you know wins something and she'd be 0 for 2 (whether she concedes or not)........ so if Warnock loses - she may want to structure herself as a Senate candidate ......
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Post by Joaquim on Jul 29, 2022 11:49:07 GMT
Walker seems to repeatedly shoot himself in the foot. Guess he shouldâveâŚ..stuck to football. Warnock has got to be the luckiest candidate ever in terms of campaign opponents Oz will lose. Amazing how this New Jersey Turk has managed to bring Republicans and Democrats in Pennsylvania together by being utterly repulsive to both Vance will win
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 29, 2022 16:46:33 GMT
* Senate is still up in the air but Dems could be more than just competitive here - 3 key races Warnock, Walker / Fetterman , Oz / Ryan , Vance have the Dem in the lead in the polling .....control of the Senate is way more volatile and hard to guess Don't forget Kelly vs. Meadows in AZ and Cortez Masto vs. Laxalt in NV, all pegged as toss-ups. Senate race looks like it's going to be a bloodbath with lots of crazy on the cusp of winning.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jul 30, 2022 23:29:07 GMT
This might end up being the oddest midterms ever. Mathematically/statistically, the voters go based on their feelings about the current President of the United States. But here, we see something very unusual. Biden is unpopular within his own party (and unlikely to win the 2024 nomination), but at the same time, the Democrats look like they might hold onto the House and Senate. The Supreme Court backing Dobbs aka The State of Mississippi's 15 week abortion ban, was a gigantic gift to the Democratic Party. It provided much needed fire in the belly. The three Senate races in Ohio, Penn and Georgia are actually looking good for the Democrats.
Herschel Walker was an obvious loser ticket. Here's a guy with no knowledge of politics. He suffers from dissociation disorder and most likely CTE from playing football. It would be shocking to me if he ever agreed to a debate with Warnock.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 31, 2022 18:17:02 GMT
New poll: I think that's a bit low but it's hard to tell as things tighten up .. ......100 days to go exactly now btw: New CBS News Battleground Tracker polling shows Republicans in the lead for control of the House ahead of this yearâs midterm elections, with 230 seats projected for the GOP and 205 for Democrats.
GOP wins in 230 districts would give Republicans 12 seats more than the 218 needed to control the chamber.
Democrats currently claim a slim majority of 220 seats to Republicansâ 211. thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3581583-republicans-leading-midterm-race-for-house-cbs-poll/
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 11, 2022 11:04:02 GMT
In just the last 4 months we've had an unprecedented SCOTUS decision leak in its entirety, a 50 year decision overturned, an unprecedeted act of an ex-President's house searched by the FBI, a recession (or whatever), and tensions with China majorly increase.....and that's not the half of it Politics in America totally is a hot mess but watching politics in America is kind of amazing in a non-partisan way......the Republicans could be energized and win big.........the Democrats may be enegized and limit Congressional losses and maintain the Senate by a couple seats too ..........what a midterm this is going to be tbh ...... 89 days to go......
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 24, 2022 18:59:39 GMT
Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats (538) it's really something looking at those vote margins compared to partisan leans. Dems have been consistently overperforming in the wake of Dobbs and Republicans are winning by smaller margins than expected. In close races that could be really significant. One example just from yesterday is democrat Pat Ryan winning a special election against GOP Marc Molinaro in a swingy New York district with a GOP lean of 4 points. Blue voters are turning out.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 20, 2022 10:48:14 GMT
Predictions time - Anybody think the Dem's hold the House? I don't think so but it may only be closer to 15 seats now - and they've been favored to hold or grow the lead in the Senate..... Any predictions on the big 7 Senate races below? Less than 50 days to go as of right now. Let's go people you're supposed to be good at predicting and shit .........let's make a huge mountain of a molehill as they say in Canada um........ Some think Colorado and Washington are close too but that would be a surprise in blue states so I doubt it.....Joe O'Dea in Colorado is a pro-choice Republican so if he could win it would be a big deal.......he supports restrictions after 20 weeks though....but still he's a real outlier Republican candidate ..... New Hampshire - Current Dem Seat Arizona - Current Dem Seat Pennsylvania - Current Rep Seat Wisconsin - Current Rep Seat Ohio - Current Rep Seat Georgia - Current Dem seat Nevada - Current Dem seat
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 20, 2022 17:24:47 GMT
NH feels like a safe dem stronghold especially since the more extreme GOP candidate won the primary there. AZ and PA feel good for dems because Oz and Masters are such terrible candidates.
GA and NV feel like true toss-ups to me. NV is aggressively pro-choice but is also a really weird state. If Republican-leaning voters can be convinced that Laxalt isn't a threat to abortion, I'm guessing he has the edge. On the other hand, it's a purple state in a post-Dobbs electoral climate that seems to be leaning dem, sooo... I don't know about NV. With GA, I'm honestly scared lol. I think Walker will definitely lose some support from independents in the suburbs but also pick up votes from conservative people who sat out the 2021 runoff (Purdue and especially Loeffler were bad candidates and it was easy to paint them as out of touch). It could also be that Walker's presence in the race nullifies Warnock's black support which was instrumental in getting him elected in the runoff. On the other hand... he's a wifebeater who keeps making bizarre comments and would surely be the dumbest senator in the country if he gets in, so not someone Georgia would want representing them in DC. And in a post-Dobbs world again, I don't know... I think women especially in the suburbs are gonna be hugely turned off by his views on abortion and violent past.
WI and OH are closer to toss-up territory but I can't imagine them not leaning GOP. As horrible as Johnson is, he's an established GOP heavyweight in that state and he's weathered tough elections before. If he hammers Barnes on crime and inflation while tampering down on same-sex marriage talk, abortion talk, and his role in the Jan 6th insurrection, I think he's going to be hard to beat. And OH is just a very red state full of working class voters. I think Vance wins by at least a couple points.
so these are my predix of the close races I guess New Hampshire - Dem Arizona - Dem Pennsylvania - Dem Wisconsin - GOP Ohio - GOP North Carolina - GOP
Georgia - tossup but my heart says Dem Nevada - tossup but my head says GOP
so that would amount to dems picking up one seat in PA and losing another in NV, which would leave them right where they started. They have to defend NV and GA if they want to gain a minimum of one seat. And if they lose both, there's no way they've won in WI, OH, or NC.
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Post by Joaquim on Sept 21, 2022 21:33:22 GMT
No clue about the New Hampshire race, havenât been keeping up with that
Arizona - Blake Masters will win. This is the big race I got my eye on, the one Iâm following the closest and care the most about. Masters is a superstar. Heâs right up there with DeSantis for me, he might even be clear of him but letâs see him in action in the senate first before I can declare him greater than DeSantis. My one concern, my one thing that would make me inclined to think that heâs too good to be true is that heâs Peter Thielâs protege. While Thiel isnât as bad as all the other slimy Republican donors, heâs still a tech billionaire oligarch and that alone is a red flag. But from what Iâve seen out of Blake Masters so far, he is the real fucking deal. If Masters doesnât win it just proves this country is beyond saving, and that it may not even be worth saving at this point
Pennsylvania is a toss up for me because of how awful both candidates are. Fetterman is clearly suffering through the after effects of that stroke he had. He is not coherent, he sounds worse than Biden. The man is not fit to hold elected office. If he doesnât suffer a stroke, heâd be winning handily. Luckily for him his opponent is Dr. Oz, who I will refer to as Mehmed the Conquered if he loses like the bitch he is. Any other Republican candidate would have this in the bag. Iâm much more interested in the governor race, which should be a win for Doug Mastriano. A Mastriano/Fetterman victory would probably be the best case scenario for republicans. When Fetterman inevitably croaks Mastriano gets to appoint the senator, and it sure as hell ainât gonna be Oz
Wisconsin - havenât been following this one much either but Iâll say Johnson holds on to his seat
Ohio - thatâs gonna be a Vance win
Georgia should go Republican but itâs another toss up for me because Herschel Walker clearly has CTE. Raphael Warnock must be the luckiest political candidate ever, in terms of who his opponents are. Itâs a tough one but Walker is a Georgia Bulldog legend and that just may be enough to get him over the line even though this isnât something that voters should take into consideration, but the average voter is stupid so Walkerâs celebrity status and legacy as a football player probably will be a factor here
Nevada - havenât been following this one either. Probably goes dem
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 22, 2022 9:40:37 GMT
To me the most fascinating race is Ga - for so many reasons - both lame af candidates - both who might not hit 50% so a run-off is entirely possible.
That race has conflicting strengths in it - first Warnock as the incumbent has a built-in advantage - but Kemp is going to beat Abrams - by a lot possibly - which certainly helps Walker who needs all the help he can get.......
A run-off depends on the broader trendline - especially if this is the "this race tilts the Senate one way or the other" narrative....
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2022 17:12:59 GMT
Interesting clip of Chris Christie saying that Republicans are MORE motivated to show up and vote than Democrats are because of abortion - which is either an interesting piece of insight that no one has said........or utter BS.....that no one has said because it's utter BS......this will be good to refer back to after the midterms.......
This is an ABC / Washington Post Poll I guess which was overwhelming against the Roe V. Wade reversal but I guess with a deeper way of reading the voting block from the poll because he says "our" poll which would be ABC:
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Sept 27, 2022 17:18:14 GMT
Interesting clip of Chris Christie saying that Republicans are MORE motivated to show up and vote than Democrats are because of abortion - which is either an interesting piece of insight that no one has said........or utter BS.....that no one has said because it's utter BS......this will be good to refer back to after the midterms....... This is an ABC / Washington Post Poll I guess which was overwhelming against the Roe V. Wade reversal but I guess with a deeper way of reading the voting block from the poll because he says "our" poll which would be ABC: I can see the logic as evangelicals/pro-life conservatives feeling emboldened by the Roe v. Wade reversal as the process has validated their views, while pro-choice people may feel disheartened by the entire system. I wouldn't bank on that being the case, but I also wouldn't be stunned.
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Post by hugobolso on Sept 27, 2022 17:35:54 GMT
Interesting clip of Chris Christie saying that Republicans are MORE motivated to show up and vote than Democrats are because of abortion - which is either an interesting piece of insight that no one has said........or utter BS.....that no one has said because it's utter BS......this will be good to refer back to after the midterms....... This is an ABC / Washington Post Poll I guess which was overwhelming against the Roe V. Wade reversal but I guess with a deeper way of reading the voting block from the poll because he says "our" poll which would be ABC: I don't think so. Maybe the prochoice radicals are lesser, than the media, tell us. Probably prolife radicals are lesser than prochocie radicals . but prolife centrist are more numerous and votes more than pro choice centrist, who are more concern on paying the rent,have a job, have no more debts, or that their children go to schools.- I could see a radical prolife not voting, but I can't imagine a radical prochoice not voting.-
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Post by Joaquim on Sept 27, 2022 18:40:55 GMT
I wish this was real He reads my posts!
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Post by quetee on Sept 27, 2022 20:05:49 GMT
Damn the gloves have come off. Trump must be beyond pissed off at Desantis. I'm pretty sure he takes all the credit for his career.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2022 16:21:22 GMT
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Post by Joaquim on Sept 29, 2022 17:07:58 GMT
I said this earlier in the thread - the governorâs race in Pennsylvania is much much more interesting
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 1, 2022 13:16:31 GMT
Still think the Senate leans to the Democrats but this is a sort of an interesting trendline.....really the Republicans taking the Senate is a pretty big deal in a lot of bad ways and I'm hardly big on the Democratic Party in 2022 but that's a hard stop on any possible legislation for 2 years so it's not exactly "a good thing" .....Republicans really think they're flipping Colorado which contradicts all the polling ....and that is an outlier state from all the competitive states we've talked about above ^......possibly "missing" this state tbh ...... Fascinating midterm race in so many ways with all these voting issues causing surging and receding polls - and brings into question the validity of polls again ....... The Republican Partyâs chances of taking control of the U.S. Senate in Novemberâs midterm elections have been bouncing back, with betting market PredictIt putting them at 46% on Thursday â a level last seen on Aug. 7 and up from a low of 35% hit in late August.
The GOPâs Senate odds, even with the recent rebound, remain far below their high of 79% reached in April. But there is a clear recovery, as shown in the chart below, and some analysts think itâs because high U.S. inflation continues weigh on the Democratic Partyâs prospects.www.marketwatch.com/story/midterm-elections-republicans-chances-for-taking-control-of-senate-rebound-to-45-a-level-last-seen-7-weeks-ago-11664387289
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 1, 2022 23:50:32 GMT
More of a random thought but what do republicans need to do to garner more celebrity support? Not that celebrity support should matter but over the past few weeks or so Iâve seen so many legendary Brazilian soccer players past and present come out in support of Bolsonaro. Neymar and Ronaldinho have got to be up there among the biggest name endorsements a presidential candidate can get in Brazil, and itâs such a rarity to see a true A list endorsement from celebrities for a Republican candidate here in America. Because of that American vantage point Iâm seeing things through, itâs actually been a bit amusing to me seeing all these stars come out in favor of Bolsonaro 1 by 1. So what does Bolsonaro have going for him over there that republican candidates canât seem to replicate replicate here? Perhaps the Brazilians of the board can offer some insight
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Oct 2, 2022 7:51:32 GMT
More of a random thought but what do republicans need to do to garner more celebrity support? Not that celebrity support should matter but over the past few weeks or so Iâve seen so many legendary Brazilian soccer players past and present come out in support of Bolsonaro. Neymar and Ronaldinho have got to be up there among the biggest name endorsements a presidential candidate can get in Brazil, and itâs such a rarity to see a true A list endorsement from celebrities for a Republican candidate here in America. Because of that American vantage point Iâm seeing things through, itâs actually been a bit amusing to me seeing all these stars come out in favor of Bolsonaro 1 by 1. So what does Bolsonaro have going for him over there that republican candidates canât seem to replicate replicate here? Perhaps the Brazilians of the board can offer some insight Well, a huge percentage of celebrities in Italy heavily insulted Meloni during the whole electoral campaign...and we saw how it went... People vote for the candidates who offer them better prospective for their lives nowadays. The opinion of wealthy artists without financial issues don't impact much on the average voter. People with millions followers on their instagram accounts don't count much in terms of moving votes. At least this is what happened last week in Italy.
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 2, 2022 8:49:57 GMT
So what does Bolsonaro have going for him over there that republican candidates canât seem to replicate replicate here? Surely it canât be his willingness to do stuff like this on social media, which I canât picture any republicans doing, or even many democrats, right?
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 4, 2022 10:08:36 GMT
Ominous sign a bit now - GOP takes contol of the generic ballot here - though it's still close - everything will always be close in this environment tbh. 82% people ranking inflation as the number 1 issue suggests - but doesn't guarantee - the GOP governor candidates with big polling leads may drag their Senate / Congress colleagues with them in close races - like Walker and Vance....Dems need abortion to be closer to that 82% number and it's at only 56% .....strong Democrat messaging might help with a month to go.......races are often won or lost in the last month.... www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/economy-inflation-top-of-mind-for-midterm-voters-giving-gop-slight-edge-in-new-monmouth-poll.htmlOverall, 82% of Americans ranked inflation as an extremely or very important issue, compared with 56% who ranked abortion as a top worry and 32% who said the coronavirus pandemic was a big concern. More broadly, anxiety about the economy and cost of living supersede concerns about losing fundamental rights or threats to democracy 54% to 38% among all Americans.
âDemocrats are all over the place when it comes to their key issues. This makes it difficult for the party to create a cohesive messaging strategy to motivate its base. Republicans, on the other hand, just have to hammer away at rising prices and âthe wolf is at the doorâ to get their voters riled up,â said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. âA major problem for Democrats is their base messaging doesnât hold as much appeal for independents as the GOP issue agenda does.â
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