flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,844 
Likes: 1,630
|
Post by flasuss on Feb 3, 2022 15:52:20 GMT
Quite the opposite- black (perceived) frontrunner misses even the nomination to BAFTAs is exactly why the Jury system was created in the first place. But King Richard also got nods for Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Casting. I also doubt the other nominees in Best Actor would have been in the Top 2. I'm pretty sure Ellis is also a jury save. |
|
|
|
Post by franklin on Feb 3, 2022 15:52:52 GMT
The SAG snub will look very strange in hindsight if DiCaprio gets in at the Oscars. They are just being petty. |
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Feb 3, 2022 16:00:23 GMT
dENzEl wIlL gET hIs fIrSt bAfTA NoM aS mACbeTH wITh tHE jUrY sAVe  |
|
|
|
Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 3, 2022 16:12:19 GMT
Top two in the acting categories?
For Best Actor I think Cumberbatch is obvious and AW has sort of convinced me that DiCaprio was probably the other. He really doesn’t remotely resemble any other presumed jury picks, and DLU was strong.
Actress is probably Gaga and Haim?
Supporting Actress, I’d go with Balfe and Debose
Supporting Actor likely KSM and Hinds
|
|
Allenism
Badass
Posts: 1,489
Likes: 1,004
Member is Online
|
Post by Allenism on Feb 3, 2022 16:19:22 GMT
So let me get this straight: Kidman, Colman, and Stewart, who all at one point or another were predicted to be the frontrunner of their category, also all got shafted here.
Looking forward to the Gaga hatefest after she picks up the golden bald guy.
ETA: Thompson getting in for Passing validates my gut feeling that she was gonna pop up somewhere big.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2022 16:20:04 GMT
Top two in the acting categories? For Best Actor I think Cumberbatch is obvious and AW has sort of convinced me that DiCaprio was probably the other. He really doesn’t remotely resemble any other presumed jury picks, and DLU was strong. Actress is probably Gaga and Haim? Supporting Actress, I’d go with Balfe and Debose Supporting Actor likely KSM and Hinds Cumberbatch/Smith. I still think that DiCaprio feels like a jury save because even though he's very popular, that SAG miss is still hard to reconcile, and I think that's what makes me go with Smith as the likelier top two contender over him. Gaga/Scanlan, as I've said elsewhere. DeBose/Balfe seems right, but I could be convinced by DeBose/Negga as well. Smit-McPhee/Hinds also feels right. |
|
|
|
Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 3, 2022 16:26:39 GMT
Top two in the acting categories? For Best Actor I think Cumberbatch is obvious and AW has sort of convinced me that DiCaprio was probably the other. He really doesn’t remotely resemble any other presumed jury picks, and DLU was strong. Actress is probably Gaga and Haim? Supporting Actress, I’d go with Balfe and Debose Supporting Actor likely KSM and Hinds Cumberbatch/Smith. I still think that DiCaprio feels like a jury save because even though he's very popular, that SAG miss is still hard to reconcile, and I think that's what makes me go with Smith as the likelier top two contender over him. Gaga/Scanlan, as I've said elsewhere. DeBose/Balfe seems right, but I could be convinced by DeBose/Negga as well. Smit-McPhee/Hinds also feels right. You don’t think Haim was top two with the way LP performed there? My gut feeling is the same about Will Smith/DiCaprio, but how much sense does DiCaprio actually make as a jury save? He’s been nominated plenty, and went into BAFTA voting without a ton of buzz. The more I think about it, Will Smith landing in the 3-5 range in initial voting and being saved by the jury probably makes more sense. |
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Feb 3, 2022 16:43:19 GMT
Definitely Cumberbatch. No idea who was #2. I’ll say DiCaprio since Don’t Look Up got in Best Film.
Lady Gaga and Alana Haim I guess? Wild lmao.
Ariana DeBose and Balfe. Quite confident in this too.
Smit-McPhee and Hinds. 100%
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Feb 3, 2022 16:46:27 GMT
Cumberbatch/Smith. I still think that DiCaprio feels like a jury save because even though he's very popular, that SAG miss is still hard to reconcile, and I think that's what makes me go with Smith as the likelier top two contender over him. Gaga/Scanlan, as I've said elsewhere. DeBose/Balfe seems right, but I could be convinced by DeBose/Negga as well. Smit-McPhee/Hinds also feels right. You don’t think Haim was top two with the way LP performed there? My gut feeling is the same about Will Smith/DiCaprio, but how much sense does DiCaprio actually make as a jury save? He’s been nominated plenty, and went into BAFTA voting without a ton of buzz. The more I think about it, Will Smith landing in the 3-5 range in initial voting and being saved by the jury probably makes more sense. Yes, I really love this post from Awards Worthy explaining the three criteria that the probable jury saves have with some having more than one of the factors. 1) British/Irish Jones Scanlan Akhtar Graham Buckley Negga Norman 2) POC Thompson Akhtar Ali Ellis Negga 3) Newcomer or Underdog Actor Jones Reinsve Dowd Faist Kotsur Norman Plemons Leo doesn’t make sense to me at all as a jury save compared to the obvious other jury saves. Plus I don’t know if it was mentioned here, but at the time of voting DLU was really surging which caused me to panic. Since then I think it’s faded somewhat, but I think it’s still top 5. With Haim, I think she was top 2 because they obviously loved Licorice Pizza. |
|
avnermoriarti
Badass
Friends say I’ve changed. They’re right.
Posts: 2,421
Likes: 1,307
|
Post by avnermoriarti on Feb 3, 2022 16:49:42 GMT
they like to play nasty
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2022 17:03:12 GMT
Cumberbatch/Smith. I still think that DiCaprio feels like a jury save because even though he's very popular, that SAG miss is still hard to reconcile, and I think that's what makes me go with Smith as the likelier top two contender over him. Gaga/Scanlan, as I've said elsewhere. DeBose/Balfe seems right, but I could be convinced by DeBose/Negga as well. Smit-McPhee/Hinds also feels right. You don’t think Haim was top two with the way LP performed there? My gut feeling is the same about Will Smith/DiCaprio, but how much sense does DiCaprio actually make as a jury save? He’s been nominated plenty, and went into BAFTA voting without a ton of buzz. The more I think about it, Will Smith landing in the 3-5 range in initial voting and being saved by the jury probably makes more sense. Haim is the only other alternative that makes sense, but I just think hometown pride, the veteran narrative, and Scanlan's BIFA win really worked in her favor here. DiCaprio makes sense as a jury save if we take the SAG snub in conjunction, and realize that there were jurors who really liked the film and he probably benefits from that, but the overall film is so divisive that I don't see him cracking the top two on passion if he wasn't able to make it at SAG at the fever pitch that film had in terms of buzz. Smith feels like he'd have more uniform passion overall to crack the top two. |
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2022 17:07:38 GMT
I think Leo's SAG snub is the outlier here. But I guess we'll never know. I just don't feel that as a jury save.
|
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,844
Likes: 1,630
|
Post by flasuss on Feb 3, 2022 17:16:14 GMT
You don’t think Haim was top two with the way LP performed there? My gut feeling is the same about Will Smith/DiCaprio, but how much sense does DiCaprio actually make as a jury save? He’s been nominated plenty, and went into BAFTA voting without a ton of buzz. The more I think about it, Will Smith landing in the 3-5 range in initial voting and being saved by the jury probably makes more sense. Haim is the only other alternative that makes sense, but I just think hometown pride, the veteran narrative, and Scanlan's BIFA win really worked in her favor here. DiCaprio makes sense as a jury save if we take the SAG snub in conjunction, and realize that there were jurors who really liked the film and he probably benefits from that, but the overall film is so divisive that I don't see him cracking the top two on passion if he wasn't able to make it at SAG at the fever pitch that film had in terms of buzz. Smith feels like he'd have more uniform passion overall to crack the top two. Strong disagree here. DLU had enough passion to get in for BP. It's the type of movie that has zero chance in a prefential system, but lots of #1 votes. Di Caprio also makes ZERO sense has a jury vote- plenty of awards in recent years, huge white star in a big hit, etx, while Smith- never nominated in an award with a long anti African-American bias, perceived frontrunner in his category, movie without much appeal to white British voters, would cause a big fuss if missed, etc, is pretty much a perfect one. |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2022 17:20:46 GMT
Haim is the only other alternative that makes sense, but I just think hometown pride, the veteran narrative, and Scanlan's BIFA win really worked in her favor here. DiCaprio makes sense as a jury save if we take the SAG snub in conjunction, and realize that there were jurors who really liked the film and he probably benefits from that, but the overall film is so divisive that I don't see him cracking the top two on passion if he wasn't able to make it at SAG at the fever pitch that film had in terms of buzz. Smith feels like he'd have more uniform passion overall to crack the top two. Strong disagree here. DLU had enough passion to get in for BP. It's the type of movie that has zero chance in a prefential system, but lots of #1 votes. Di Caprio also makes ZERO sense has a jury vote- plenty of awards in recent years, huge white star in a big hit, etx, while Smith- never nominated in an award with a long anti African-American bias, perceived frontrunner in his category, movie without much appeal to white British voters, would cause a big fuss if missed, etc, is pretty much a perfect one. And I disagree. Because even though DiCaprio is a general favorite of theirs and the film did well, its general divisiveness feels like the sort of film that, with the right jury makeup, would hit the same exact nominations that it got, bar Best Film (is that category juried?). Whether it's passion from the general audience or passion among the juries, I would imagine it would still look more or less the same. And the thing is, I can't overlook that SAG snub. Smith feels like he was the safe #2 spot because that's pretty much what he's been rocking all season. Cumberbatch has the critics behind him, but Smith has always been right there from the start (the presumed frontrunner). BAFTA has never really gone for him before, but I think that even though he fits the diversity criteria that the jury system was installed for, they already went that route for Ali and Akhtar, who feel more like the sort of performances they'd use their clout to back. Smith, I just think he managed it all on his own. |
|
|
|
Post by countjohn on Feb 3, 2022 17:51:10 GMT
Well obviously really happy about Licorice Pizza doing so well. Really hope it gets BP/BD and Haim. Although the fact that it isn't getting nominated anywhere for cinematography anywhere when the rest of the movie is getting so much love is bizarre. It's the best shot movie of the year.
What can you even say about the BAFTA's acting nominees at this point? Maybe this puts a dint in Coleman/Kidman's win chances but they are absolutely getting nodded, they didn't here because too many white people were in good movies this year. Same deal with Stewart, if she gets in it will be in the five spot so she obviously wasn't going to get in here, don't know what the fuss is about in this thread with some people apparently expecting her to.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 3, 2022 18:07:45 GMT
people are putting way too much stake on nominations that are determined by 7-12 people. Bafta noms aren't predictive anymore past the longlist process. Stewart, Colman, Kidman (insert any snub you like here) weren't nominated because 7-12 people didn't want to nominate them. Sure it might be bad for their narratives to miss to people who don't understand how this weird jury system works but it's not indicative of broader industry sentiment even a little bit. Everyone needs to calm down.
|
|
|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Feb 3, 2022 18:15:07 GMT
people are putting way too much stake on nominations that are determined by 7-12 people. Bafta noms aren't predictive anymore past the longlist process. Stewart, Colman, Kidman (insert any snub you like here) weren't nominated because 7-12 people didn't want to nominate them. Sure it might be bad for their narratives to miss to people who don't understand how this weird jury system works but it's not indicative of broader industry sentiment even a little bit. Everyone needs to calm down. Agree. The new voting system is idiotic. We can't read much into these. |
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2022 18:20:35 GMT
I already said it last year, I like this system because it gives visibility to movies and performances that would otherwise be buried by the bigger contenders. And it makes the race much more unpredictable  |
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 3, 2022 18:26:13 GMT
I already said it last year, I like this system because it gives visibility to movies and performances that would otherwise be buried by the bigger contenders. And it makes the race much more unpredictable  I agree I love the system. A precursors job is not to make the Oscar race more clear for us. |
|
|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Feb 3, 2022 18:30:51 GMT
I already said it last year, I like this system because it gives visibility to movies and performances that would otherwise be buried by the bigger contenders. And it makes the race much more unpredictable If you want visibility, follow regional critics awards.
How is considered a BAFTA if it doesn't represent the voting majority of the members? 7-12 jury members (who may not all even be BAFTA members) picking nominees doesn't make sense. Call it something else.
|
|
|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Feb 3, 2022 18:33:42 GMT
I already said it last year, I like this system because it gives visibility to movies and performances that would otherwise be buried by the bigger contenders. And it makes the race much more unpredictable I agree I love the system. A precursors job is not to make the Oscar race more clear for us.
It's not BAFTA's job to nominate random films/performances just to make the Oscars more unpredictable either. That's a horrible reason. If it doesn't represent the voting majority of it's members, what's the point of the award? It loses the prestige if 7 random people pick you.
|
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Feb 3, 2022 18:35:12 GMT
I already said it last year, I like this system because it gives visibility to movies and performances that would otherwise be buried by the bigger contenders. And it makes the race much more unpredictable Yup ^..........and obviously this is exactly what it did in Actress where the previous "front runner" for Best Actress (maybe still) had only won a highly dubious Globe and an AACTA award (come on)  and people were just like "well she's had a great career, I guess she deserves 2 .........maybe?!"  At least it opens up the race for curveballs and challenges........ |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2022 18:43:45 GMT
I already said it last year, I like this system because it gives visibility to movies and performances that would otherwise be buried by the bigger contenders. And it makes the race much more unpredictable Yup ^..........and obviously this is exactly what it did in Actress where the previous "front runner" for Best Actress (maybe still) had only won a highly dubious Globe and an AACTA award (come on) and people were just like "well she's had a great career, I guess she deserves 2 .........maybe?!" At least it opens up the race for curveballs and challenges........ Because people are so quick to consecrate frontrunners in the race when there are so many factors to take into consideration. |
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Feb 3, 2022 18:52:34 GMT
Haim is the only other alternative that makes sense, but I just think hometown pride, the veteran narrative, and Scanlan's BIFA win really worked in her favor here. DiCaprio makes sense as a jury save if we take the SAG snub in conjunction, and realize that there were jurors who really liked the film and he probably benefits from that, but the overall film is so divisive that I don't see him cracking the top two on passion if he wasn't able to make it at SAG at the fever pitch that film had in terms of buzz. Smith feels like he'd have more uniform passion overall to crack the top two. Strong disagree here. DLU had enough passion to get in for BP. It's the type of movie that has zero chance in a prefential system, but lots of #1 votes. Di Caprio also makes ZERO sense has a jury vote- plenty of awards in recent years, huge white star in a big hit, etx, while Smith- never nominated in an award with a long anti African-American bias, perceived frontrunner in his category, movie without much appeal to white British voters, would cause a big fuss if missed, etc, is pretty much a perfect one. King Richard's screenplay nod shows the support went beyond the jury. |
|
|
|
Post by ibbi on Feb 3, 2022 18:52:53 GMT
I agree I love the system. A precursors job is not to make the Oscar race more clear for us.
It's not BAFTA's job to nominate random films/performances just to make the Oscars more unpredictable either. That's a horrible reason. If it doesn't represent the voting majority of it's members, what's the point of the award? It loses the prestige if 7 random people pick you.
If it could be guaranteed that everyone who votes for the nominees watches every movie on the longlist then I'd agree with you, but as that's obviously not what happens, this makes a lot more sense. Everyone still votes on the winners, right? Everyone still votes in their branch to form the longlists in the first place? It's not like all power has been taken from their hands. To me, the real problem is that they only use this process in categories people give a shit about to get good press  . Aside from maybe best film it should be applied to ALL categories. Does it not make sense to have nominees picked by people who have watched all the movies? Even if diversity and not quality is their primary objective, awards shows have always been about self-promotion more than quality anyway, so why get hung up on that? |
|
and people were just like "well she's had a great career, I guess she deserves 2 .........maybe?!" 
. 