Does Kristen Stewart still get the Oscar nomination?

I say she's still in the top five, but she is now incredibly vulnerable. And I do wonder if she even makes BAFTA at this rate. Spencer did not do overly well with the longlists, and I think that whatever passion there was on the critical end of things isn't translating within the industry. I can see her still getting the Oscar nomination even if she misses BAFTA as well, but she went from being bandied about as the frontrunner to arguably the most snubbable member of that five. The thing that I think she does have in her favor is that if we're thinking Chastain/Colman/Gaga/Kidman are solidly in, then it depends on whether the fifth slot goes to someone with a sudden burst of passion. It doesn't look like it'll be Lawrence, and while Hudson got in at SAG, she's unlikely at BAFTA. None of the major BAFTA contenders like Scanlan or Rushbrook are getting in at the Oscar. So for lack of a reasonable alternative, I think Stewart's still getting nominated.

I actually think she could still win BAFTA - although apparently I'm stupid for thinking that - I dunno she went from favorite to also ran awfully quick........too quick maybe

But Kidman (atm) had won 0 precursors (partially because, shhhhhhh she's fine but not that good in this) aside from a never mattered less Golden Globe, Gaga has the "she's a singer not an a 'thespian" on the level of these other ladies.........and half of us thought her movie sucked anyway" barrier, Chastain is in a movie that doesn't track with much weight............ and Colman..........well Colman might win BAFTA and win the Oscar

I just don't think we can read precursors like we've done in the past ..........Stewart's big advantage was that she was fully integrated into her role - she WAS her role to a degree none of the others were at all (Kidman has Bardem, Gaga has a great supporting cast, Colman shares with Buckley etc.)

I still think Stewart's safe .....

Right? They are such philistines. 

I think momentum has collapsed in a spectacular way, and momentum matters a lot in the Oscar race. The movie is bombing with industry and audiences, and she's very vulnerable at BAFTA too (I'm predicting a snub there). I think she has around 30% of a chance to get in, mainly off residual buzz from her critical run, but there's not enough passion for her, which is sad because it's an actually great performance. I see Cruz as more of a passion pick for the Academy, even though she's very vulnerable too.

If BAFTA go as full-on hardcore PC as they did last year they won't have many spots for whitey (this could also get Jennifer Hudson in, and who would bet against her with both BAFTA and SAG under her belt?) so she's by no means guaranteed a nom, and at that point it's anyones guess.

That said, I do have a hard time believing this country will miss a chance to cream their shorts over anything related to that whack-ass motherfucker, so I say she gets in, and the Oscar nom is a safe bet.

THAT said, the fact that neither beloved homegrowns Spall and Hawkins even made the longlists makes me think maybe people just didn't like that movie very much?

Personally I think she has a pretty good shot, but that's in part because I still have a hard time believing that Chastain movie is closer to being an Oscar contender than Razzie one.

This might be part of a much larger discussion, and perhaps it isn't appropriate to ask here, but... Why do you hate Lady Diana Spencer so much? 

Do you think she's in at BAFTA?

NEON comes out swinging:

“Kristen Stewart gives the performance of her life as Diana Spencer. There is no ignoring her tour de force in SPENCER. The technical demands of the role from strict posture to posh accent are absorbed into an intimate and indelible portrayal that finds the grit, grace and grieving heart of a caged spirit.” Peter Travers, ABC News

https://www.instagram.com/p/CYrlBmWv6Is

Sorry for the confusion, but when I said 'whack-ass motherfucker' I was talking about Colonel Sanders.

Some people here are bipolar, it seems- a few days ago she was a lock to win, now she's clearly not even getting a nomination. Settle down a little bit.

Exactly. We still have the BAFTAs. It's not the end of the world that Stewart didn't get SAG love.

Only if she gets BAFTA