Does Kristen Stewart still get the Oscar nomination?

Let me put it simple for everybody:

1. Kidman - Critics Choice and SAG nominee. Won Globe.
2. Gaga - Globe, Critics Choice, SAG nominee. Won NY Film Critics
3. Colman & Chastain - Globe, Critics Choice, SAG nominee.

5. Haim & Stewart - Globe, Critics Choice nominee.
7. Ziegler - Globe & NBR winner
7. Hudson - SAG nominee.
7. Cruz - LA and NSFC winner
10. Emilia Jones - Lead actress in a popular Oscar contender
10. Jennifer Lawrence - Globe nominee in the Comedy/Musical category.

Stewart is currently in its 5th to wildcard spot. It will depend on what BAFTA says.

I agree with everything you wrote here. Stewart is not an established actress or in an established film. We will see what BAFTA says. She unfortunately moved from a strong contender to win best actress to being a wildcard.

I know you are ranking based on existing precursors but I really don’t buy that Haim is tied for 5th with Stewart or even ahead of Ziegler, Hudson, or Cruz.

She doesn't have the status within the industry of Kidman, Gaga, Colman, Chastain, Hudson who all are either Oscar winners or have been nominated before.  Same with the Globe, SAG, BAFTA.  And she doesn't have a strong enough film to compensate for that.

This is interesting. I've always observed that Stewart for some years now post- Twilight  has been something of a "critics pet". Because she makes a lot of indie/arthouse/European films that naturally appeal to critics like Clouds Of Sils Maria, Personal Shopper, On The Road, Certain Women etc. Critics praise (or overpraise) her work in those films, but those films have such limited audience appeal that many people (even many of her peers) wouldn't  bother watching them. But critics have been pushing her for years, so I'm not shocked they tried to push her to Oscar Best Actress frontrunner status when an obvious opportunity arrived in the form of an arty biopic with one of the most famous women of the last century.

However, the last mainstream thing Stewart did was the Charlie's Angels reboot, where she showed little charm or charisma  and seemed to have progressed very little as an actress since her Twilight days. The film flopped, but it still would have been seen by far more people than any of her indies that critics love, and few would have thought she'd become a better actress since her Twilight days.

So yeah, there is probably a fairly wide disconnect between how audiences (and maybe some in the industry & peers) view Stewart, and how critics/film twitter types view her. Critics think she’s this great, daring actress whom they always like in indie or auteur movies. Many mainstream audiences think she is a one-note, mannered actress with no charisma. The likes of Margot Robbie have little to fear from her.

Stewart probably needs to deliver something resembling a great performance in a mainstream film, where audiences don't have to be told by critics  she is "great". That should be self-evident . She is too reliant on critics telling people she is supposed to be a great actress, as opposed to it happening organically. It's almost like Stewart has become a pet project by critics to see if they could rehabilitate her reputation after being widely dismissed as an actor because  of Twilight. 

I think she can still get the Oscar nomination btw. She was hyped from heaven to earth by critics for months as the one to beat, and that might just be enough to get her over the finish line. She'd had the PR and then some.  But a snub probably wouldn't surprise at this point either. 

I think the biggest obstacle for Stewart right now is the film itself. Spencer is clearly divisive so it will come down her there is enough passion for her performance to overcome that. I think she’s pretty universally praised but the movie is alienating to a lot of voters.

I think she still gets a nod, but this does finish her as a threat to win I think. She's probably not making BAFTA either just because of their silly rules.