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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 19, 2021 14:12:57 GMT
How many Oscar nominations do you think it is going to get? Will it win any Oscars?
So far, here's its awards attention:
BEST PICTURE - Won National Board of Review, nominated for picture at Globes and Critics Choice awards BEST DIRECTOR - Critics Choice nominee + Won at NBR
BEST ACTOR (Hoffman) - Globes BEST ACTRESS (Haim) - Globes + Critics Choice nominee
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Globes + Critics Choice + won at New York Film Critics
BEST FILM EDITING - Critics Choice
6 categories so far.
MY VIEW
I have LP ranked 3rd (Belfast and Dog top 2) in my best picture power rankings. Without a Best Director nomination at the Globes, its chances at winning are low. Crash (2005), Driving Miss Daisy (1989), Chariots of Fire (1981), and The Sting (1973) are the only best picture winners without a Best Director Globe nomination. Actress and Screenplay are its best chances to win at the moment.
Let me know what you guys think. I know, I am probably going to have a minority opinion here.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Dec 19, 2021 14:47:58 GMT
Insisting missing BD in the Globes is a death sentence this year is just non-sense. Specially to a director that they never nominated.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 19, 2021 14:56:01 GMT
Insisting missing BD in the Globes is a death sentence this year is just non-sense. Specially to a director that they never nominated. Where did I say anything about a "death sentence"? I am saying that probability is low for LP to win Best Picture at the moment. If LP gets nominated for directing, writing and editing at the Oscars and wins the PGA, DGA, or WGA, then there odds are very high of winning. |
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 19, 2021 16:11:36 GMT
How many Oscar nominations do you think it is going to get? Will it win any Oscars?
So far, here's its awards attention:
BEST PICTURE - Won National Board of Review, nominated for picture at Globes and Critics Choice awards BEST DIRECTOR - Critics Choice BEST ACTOR (Hoffman) - Globes BEST ACTRESS (Haim) - Globes + Critics Choice + won at Boston Film Critics BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Cooper) - Chicago Film Critics nominated for Best Supporting Actor
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Globes + Critics Choice + won at New York Film Critics
BEST FILM EDITING - Critics Choice
7 categories so far.
MY VIEW
I have LP ranked 3rd (Belfast and Dog top 2) in my best picture power rankings. Without a Best Director nomination at the Globes, its chances at winning are low. Crash (2005), Driving Miss Daisy (1989), Chariots of Fire (1981), and The Sting (1973) are the only best picture winners without a Best Director Globe nomination. Actress and Screenplay are its best chances to win at the moment.
Let me know what you guys think. I know, I am probably going to have a minority opinion here.
I thought this might be a dark horse for Best Picture because it seemed like everyone liked/loved it for the most part, and I thought it might be good alternative to Belfast which not really a film that top tier critics have backed and The Power of the Dog which many regular movie goers don’t seem like that much. I don’t think that now though after not winning anything big at LAFCA which I figured it would clean up at. I think it’s still top 5, maybe even top 3, but I think it goes home empty handed and Haim misses Best Actress. As for BP, I guess I’m going back to Belfast. Everything has a lot of cons imo, and while I momentarily thought that one of the late releases would be strong enough to topple Belfast, which I still see as a weak frontrunner, unfortunately due to almost everything disappointing at the box office, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I guess The Power of the Dog could win especially if it wins Actor and Director, but I think it’ll just be Belfast in the end. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 19, 2021 17:00:20 GMT
How many Oscar nominations do you think it is going to get? Will it win any Oscars?
So far, here's its awards attention:
BEST PICTURE - Won National Board of Review, nominated for picture at Globes and Critics Choice awards BEST DIRECTOR - Critics Choice BEST ACTOR (Hoffman) - Globes BEST ACTRESS (Haim) - Globes + Critics Choice + won at Boston Film Critics BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Cooper) - Chicago Film Critics nominated for Best Supporting Actor
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Globes + Critics Choice + won at New York Film Critics
BEST FILM EDITING - Critics Choice
7 categories so far.
MY VIEW
I have LP ranked 3rd (Belfast and Dog top 2) in my best picture power rankings. Without a Best Director nomination at the Globes, its chances at winning are low. Crash (2005), Driving Miss Daisy (1989), Chariots of Fire (1981), and The Sting (1973) are the only best picture winners without a Best Director Globe nomination. Actress and Screenplay are its best chances to win at the moment.
Let me know what you guys think. I know, I am probably going to have a minority opinion here.
I thought this might be a dark horse for Best Picture because it seemed like everyone liked/loved it for the most part, and I thought it might be good alternative to Belfast which not really a film that top tier critics have backed and The Power of the Dog which many regular movie goers don’t seem like that much. I don’t think that now though after not winning anything big at LAFCA which I figured it would clean up at. I think it’s still top 5, maybe even top 3, but I think it goes home empty handed and Haim misses Best Actress. As for BP, I guess I’m going back to Belfast. Everything has a lot of cons imo, and while I momentarily thought that one of the late releases would be strong enough to topple Belfast, which I still see as a weak frontrunner, unfortunately due to almost everything disappointing at the box office, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I guess The Power of the Dog could win especially if it wins Actor and Director, but I think it’ll just be Belfast in the end. I fully expect the Guilds to go crazy over TPOTD and Belfast. But LP is somewhat of a mystery. Are they going to honor the direction and performances? I am thinking LP will get anywhere between 2 to 6 Oscar nominations. |
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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 19, 2021 17:02:22 GMT
I’m going to say Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 19, 2021 17:27:37 GMT
I don't think a coming of age story will be have enough passion with older members of the Academy for a BP win. They had passed on Boyhood.
I also think Alana Haim will miss. Gold Derby has her in 8th place.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 19, 2021 17:32:26 GMT
Picture, Screenplay, and probably a few techs, don’t think it gets in for Director or and Acting.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 19, 2021 22:43:35 GMT
Picture
Director
Actress
Screenplay
Editing
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Post by stephen on Dec 19, 2021 22:46:49 GMT
I'm thinking Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Editing. I don't yet buy Alana Haim, as she feels more like a critics' thing than an industry player (especially as there are more established "names" in the mix). I will say that if Haim does get in, then I'd feel very strongly that the film could win more than just Original Screenplay.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 19, 2021 23:09:06 GMT
I'm thinking Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Editing. I don't yet buy Alana Haim, as she feels more like a critics' thing than an industry player (especially as there are more established "names" in the mix). I will say that if Haim does get in, then I'd feel very strongly that the film could win more than just Original Screenplay. This mindset has been disproven time and time again. Just last year, we had Andra Day and Vanessa Kirby nominated. In 2018, we had Yalitza Aparicio and Lady Gaga nominated. You also had Ruth Negga, Eliot Page, Jennifer Lawrence, Quvenzhané Wallis and so forth. If her film is popular, then her nomination is pretty likely. The vast majority of Best Picture nominees scored an at least one acting nomination. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 19, 2021 23:19:18 GMT
I think some people are overlooking the fact that Haim is going to have BY FAR the strongest film in contention. Like are we really about to see a lineup where none of the women are in BP nominees???
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Post by stephen on Dec 19, 2021 23:20:45 GMT
I think some people are overlooking the fact that Haim is going to have BY FAR the strongest film in contention. Like are we really about to see a lineup where none of the women are in BP nominees??? Colman's film is very much still in contention. And despite its critical reception, House of Gucci is also a contender. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 19, 2021 23:36:01 GMT
I think some people are overlooking the fact that Haim is going to have BY FAR the strongest film in contention. Like are we really about to see a lineup where none of the women are in BP nominees??? Colman's film is very much still in contention. And despite its critical reception, House of Gucci is also a contender. How do you rank the Best Picture contenders? Which one is higher on your list, Licorice Pizza or The Lost Daughter?
The Lost Daughter didn't get a Globe or Critics Choice Best Picture nomination or make the AFI top ten. Colman didn't make the Indie Spirit Best Actress list, even though it is nominated for picture, director, supporting actress, and screenplay.
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Post by stephen on Dec 19, 2021 23:45:11 GMT
Colman's film is very much still in contention. And despite its critical reception, House of Gucci is also a contender. How do you rank the Best Picture contenders? Which one is higher on your list, Licorice Pizza or The Lost Daughter?
The Lost Daughter didn't get a Globe or Critics Choice Best Picture nomination or make the AFI top ten. Colman didn't make the Indie Spirit Best Actress list, even though it is nominated for picture, director, supporting actress, and screenplay.
The Indie Spirits have juries that nominate for different categories, and their acting lineups this year went off the beaten path. Only two of their contenders (Negga and, to a much lesser extent, Buckley) have a reasonable shot at an Oscar nomination thus far. Colman missing there isn't a sign of the film's weakness, or even her own. As to your question, I think Licorice Pizza would be higher on my hypothetical list, but I think that The Lost Daughter is being extremely underestimated. But that has nothing to do with Haim, who I think still is outside the Top 5 regardless of how well her film is doing precisely because she's a relative unknown. Hell, Rachel Zegler just came in and sucked a lot of the oxygen out of the room when it comes to cinematic newcomers, and I don't think there's room for both of them. I think they are still very much in contention, but I don't think either is Top 5 right now. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 19, 2021 23:54:46 GMT
How do you rank the Best Picture contenders? Which one is higher on your list, Licorice Pizza or The Lost Daughter?
The Lost Daughter didn't get a Globe or Critics Choice Best Picture nomination or make the AFI top ten. Colman didn't make the Indie Spirit Best Actress list, even though it is nominated for picture, director, supporting actress, and screenplay.
The Indie Spirits have juries that nominate for different categories, and their acting lineups this year went off the beaten path. Only two of their contenders (Negga and, to a much lesser extent, Buckley) have a reasonable shot at an Oscar nomination thus far. Colman missing there isn't a sign of the film's weakness, or even her own. As to your question, I think Licorice Pizza would be higher on my hypothetical list, but I think that The Lost Daughter is being extremely underestimated. But that has nothing to do with Haim, who I think still is outside the Top 5 regardless of how well her film is doing precisely because she's a relative unknown. Hell, Rachel Zegler just came in and sucked a lot of the oxygen out of the room when it comes to cinematic newcomers, and I don't think there's room for both of them. I think they are still very much in contention, but I don't think either is Top 5 right now. We will see what happens. It just seems like LP is vastly more popular than TLD. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 20, 2021 0:09:50 GMT
The Indie Spirits have juries that nominate for different categories, and their acting lineups this year went off the beaten path. Only two of their contenders (Negga and, to a much lesser extent, Buckley) have a reasonable shot at an Oscar nomination thus far. Colman missing there isn't a sign of the film's weakness, or even her own. As to your question, I think Licorice Pizza would be higher on my hypothetical list, but I think that The Lost Daughter is being extremely underestimated. But that has nothing to do with Haim, who I think still is outside the Top 5 regardless of how well her film is doing precisely because she's a relative unknown. Hell, Rachel Zegler just came in and sucked a lot of the oxygen out of the room when it comes to cinematic newcomers, and I don't think there's room for both of them. I think they are still very much in contention, but I don't think either is Top 5 right now. We will see what happens. It just seems like LP is vastly more popular than TLD. I never said it wasn't. But Licorice Pizza being more popular doesn't mean Haim is automatically higher on the list of likely nominees over Olivia Colman. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 20, 2021 0:11:14 GMT
We will see what happens. It just seems like LP is vastly more popular than TLD. I never said it wasn't. But Licorice Pizza being more popular doesn't mean Haim is automatically higher on the list of likely nominees over Olivia Colman.Wait, is anyone actually saying that?? Because yeah, that's crazy talk. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 20, 2021 0:26:32 GMT
We will see what happens. It just seems like LP is vastly more popular than TLD. I never said it wasn't. But Licorice Pizza being more popular doesn't mean Haim is automatically higher on the list of likely nominees over Olivia Colman.That's an argument I never made in the first place, and the same goes for mhynson27. More over, I am not sure why you're honing in on Colman specifically. There are lots of contenders here for Best Actress. We have Stewart, Gaga, Chastain, Zegler, Cruz, Lawrence, Jones, Kidman, Stone, and Cotillard come to mind. There were six actress nominees with BFCA and GG nominations -- Stewart, Gaga, Chastain, Kidman, Haim, and Colmann. Chastain could be the odd lady out. It could be Gaga. |
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 20, 2021 2:08:11 GMT
Picture, Screenplay, and probably a few techs, don’t think it gets in for Director or and Acting. You have to be delusional or wishful thinking to think PTA misses director. He's definitely ahead of Branagh and Del Toro. Probably #4 behind Campion, Spielberg and Villenueve. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 20, 2021 2:22:23 GMT
It's a good question for the people predicting a PTA miss, who do you have getting in instead? Presuming everyone has Campion, Branagh, Spielberg and Villeneuve.
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Post by countjohn on Dec 20, 2021 2:48:39 GMT
BP/BD/Screenplay/Editing seem like sure things. With that many nods it will probably get an acting nod too and I'll say Haim there. Hoffman has an outside shot. Cooper's part is supposed to be tiny so don't see that happening.
It doesn't seem to be picking up any non-editing precursor nods for techs. Might have thought it had a shot at costumes/hair with the glittery 70's setting but it doesn't look like that's happening.
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filmnoir
Full Member
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Likes: 408
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 20, 2021 2:56:47 GMT
I think PTA will be nominated, but I think people here are way over confidant about Alana Haim. Gold Derby has her #8.
If there is an acting nod, Bradley Cooper could be this year's LaKeith Stanfield.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 20, 2021 3:14:46 GMT
Question for the group, seeing as how we're talking about the Best Picture contender, Licorice Pizza. I hear there's some backlash from the twitter/woke lefty world about the 10 year age gap between Gary and Alana. Do you think the controversy over the age differences will scare away Academy members? Personally I don't care. I loved the film Call Me By Your Name, and that was about the love affair between a teenage boy and a 23ush old man.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 20, 2021 3:27:50 GMT
I think PTA will be nominated, but I think people here are way over confidant about Alana Haim. Gold Derby has her #8.If there is an acting nod, Bradley Cooper could be this year's LaKeith Stanfield. Please explain yourself here. You appear to be engaging in the "appeal to authority" fallacy.
People are high on the Haim for the following reasons:
1. She was nominated at the Globes and Critics Choice for Best Actress. 2. She's already won 3 Critics Circle Best Actress awards, including a big win at the Boston Film Critics awards. 3. Licorice Pizza is one of the most popular films of the year. Scored Best Picture nominations at the Globes and Critics Choice, and won NBR's top prize.
The counter argument seems to be she "can't get in" because this is her first "real" film role, even though we have seen plenty of first-timers getting nominated for acting Oscars.
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